NBA Over/Under Wins 24/25 (Raps 32.5)

[Scase]

1 .Celtics = 57.5
2. Knicks = 51.5
3. Sixers = 51.5
4. Bucks = 51.5
5. Magic = 47.5
6. Cavaliers = 47.5
------------------------
7. Pacers = 45.5
8. Heat = 44.5
9. Hawks = 34.5
10. Raptors = 32.5
-------------------------
11. Hornets = 29.5
12. Pistons = 24.5
13. Wizards = 22.5
14. Nets = 19.5

Bulls: ?????

Yeah they left out the bulls, jazz, dubs due to pending potential trades. I think I'd slot them around us, maybe slightly lower.

If they still have Vuc and Lavine at seasons start, they are likely playing, which will get them some wins they otherwise would not. I wouldn't be surprised if they won slightly more, or slightly less games than us.

Hornets are a wild card, healthy they can be better than us, but that's a big if. DET will be better, but how much is up for debate.

[DG88]

My original point is teams blow up or fall off all the time.

Did anyone expect the 2014 Raptors to ascend to win that many games after the horrible 2013?

It really just does not take much to just gel and ascend. The gap between where we were last year and a .500 record is not as big as some think it is. A team of IQ/RJ/Scottie all locked up long-term and committing to winning could result in a decent year.

Will it or would I bet on it? Probably not. But to act as if it is some impossibility is not fair IMO

I don't think anyone disagrees that the 2014 scenario could happen with this team but honestly how likely is it to happen? That 2014 needed a trade and don't forget Kyle was this close to being traded to the Knicks. 2014 could have had a very different trajectory. Realistically this team as currently constructed has a Play-In ceiling with upside to be better next year.

I meant just that team as an example of a team who suddenly just gels and figures it out - but that really did not happen until some guys got more ability to showcase themselves and we got more of a bench.

I could see in theory how that could happen this year. We have a lot of "unknown" that it is tough to really IMO definitively say what we are right now.

- Barnes is going into year 2 as "the guy" and year 4 overall which feels like a pretty natural time to break out if someone were to have that next step
- IQ is starting for the first time in his career. Does he flourish and become an all-star caliber guard (that is the obv. expectations our FO has)
- Dick is going into year 2. Do we get 2nd half Dick or was that just a quick mirage?
- RJ played the best ball of his career with us. Do we keep getting a super efficient 22ppg?
- Bench --- I saw someone (Scase) say our bench has been a problem and this year it is worse. That to me is a HORRID take as there is next to no chance it gets worse. In game 1 last year we brought GTJ, Flynn, McDaniels, and Precious off the bench. GTJ/Precious both still are unsigned (surprising tbh), and Flynn/McDaniels are candidated for worst player in the league. I am not really sure how you can figure soem combo of Mitchell/Dick/Ochai/Olynyk/Brown/Vezenkov/Boucher/rookies is going to be worse. If anything, I think we might actually have some solid depth this year at the guard and wing positions. Bigs... not so much.

Now - I would still not expect us to blow projections out of the water, but IMO it would not take as much as others think to have a surprising season.

As you said there are so many variables that's why I don't see us having this miracle run. To even have this run we'd need to have a much better record vs sub .500 teams. We haven't been great there the last 2 years. On top of all that our bench is very young with a mix of rookies and second year players. Asking them to sustain a lead or not lose one is asking an awful lot.

[DG88]

We lost so many games simply for lack of effort. So yes it was a playoff team despite it drawbacks.

The only player dogging it was OG because he wanted to leave. I didn't see that from the rest of the team. It just struggled to score in the half court an defend at an average level.

But we had all those same issues in 2021-22 when we won 48, no?

Yes, by playing our starters 38 minutes a game and essentially play transition as much as possible by generating turnovers at the PoA. We don't have the level of defenders that can put that type of pressure for 48 minutes consistently. There are diminishing returns with that type of scheme that wears players down. It was gimmicky and was figured out the following year we went 41-41. The minute the game slows down we got picked apart and if a team has a guy that can get them a bucket or make a play in the half court we were sunk.

[MainEvent]

Under, we didn't solve the shooting problem. With Gary gone, it probably gets worse.

I was just thinking about this.

Looking at the roster who can you bank on hitting over 35% from 3? IQ, Kelly and Dick everyone else is a question mark, that's not good

Walter you would hope is north of 35%. Vezenkov if he is here would be as well. Between Agbaji/Barnes/RJ I would think at least 1 manages to shoot over 35% as well.

Those guys can potentially but it's rough only having 3 you can say for sure.. and we're only talking about 35%+ here in the 3pt era

[GP2]

Someone do a 30-bet parlay.

[Scase]

The only player dogging it was OG because he wanted to leave. I didn't see that from the rest of the team. It just struggled to score in the half court an defend at an average level.

But we had all those same issues in 2021-22 when we won 48, no?

Yes, by playing our starters 38 minutes a game and essentially play transition as much as possible by generating turnovers at the PoA. We don't have the level of defenders that can put that type of pressure for 48 minutes consistently. There are diminishing returns with that type of scheme that wears players down. It was gimmicky and was figured out the following year we went 41-41. The minute the game slows down we got picked apart and if a team has a guy that can get them a bucket or make a play in the half court we were sunk.

Which makes this even less likely considering if we look at the minute averages last season, Scottie was a team high 35mpg and the rest of the starters were 30-33mpg. Darko doesn't grind starters into dust, he plays the bench/rookies. He knows he's here to develop players first, and win games second.

[Appostis]

Think I'll be betting under.

[DG88]

But we had all those same issues in 2021-22 when we won 48, no?

Yes, by playing our starters 38 minutes a game and essentially play transition as much as possible by generating turnovers at the PoA. We don't have the level of defenders that can put that type of pressure for 48 minutes consistently. There are diminishing returns with that type of scheme that wears players down. It was gimmicky and was figured out the following year we went 41-41. The minute the game slows down we got picked apart and if a team has a guy that can get them a bucket or make a play in the half court we were sunk.

Which makes this even less likely considering if we look at the minute averages last season, Scottie was a team high 35mpg and the rest of the starters were 30-33mpg. Darko doesn't grind starters into dust, he plays the bench/rookies. He knows he's here to develop players first, and win games second.

That's it. The messaging from the FO to the coach is not about being competitive or making the Playoffs. None of those words were spoken since the trades happened last year. You hear rebuild and development. This team isn't being measured by how many wins it get this year in an 82 game season. Winning is about development of our young team.

[ciueli]

Whether they hit the over or under will come down to whether they are actually trying to win or not. If they play the young guys serious minutes they could easily hit the under, playing guys like Ja'Kobe, Dick, Mogbo, and Ochai minutes will lose them a lot of games.

If Darko mostly plays the vets (BBQ, Poeltl, Brown, Kelly, Mitchell, Vezenkov, that means pushing for the play in and very likely hitting the over. Obviously there are other factors like player health or in season trades, but this is where the main decision point will be. I believe we'll see a lot of minutes for the vets at least initially, if the play-in seems out of reach by mid-season then they'll start throwing more minutes at the young guys.

[YogurtProducer]

Yes, by playing our starters 38 minutes a game and essentially play transition as much as possible by generating turnovers at the PoA. We don't have the level of defenders that can put that type of pressure for 48 minutes consistently. There are diminishing returns with that type of scheme that wears players down. It was gimmicky and was figured out the following year we went 41-41. The minute the game slows down we got picked apart and if a team has a guy that can get them a bucket or make a play in the half court we were sunk.

Which makes this even less likely considering if we look at the minute averages last season, Scottie was a team high 35mpg and the rest of the starters were 30-33mpg. Darko doesn't grind starters into dust, he plays the bench/rookies. He knows he's here to develop players first, and win games second.

That's it. The messaging from the FO to the coach is not about being competitive or making the Playoffs. None of those words were spoken since the trades happened last year. You hear rebuild and development. This team isn't being measured by how many wins it get this year in an 82 game season. Winning is about development of our young team.

Again, not disagreeing, but it wouldn’t take much to kind of break out this year.

This is still the NBA - you are always one player exceeding expectations away from experiencing some major growth.

[sbsat]

under

[dagger]

Under. We are likely to avoid picking in the 10th - 14th on the next draft.
Last year was 25 wins, I suppose we may end up being around 20 wins.

Oh, come on. We not only had a season disrupted by trades, major injuries, and sadly, deaths of family members, but some of the teams above Toronto have packed it in already. Chicago, Atlanta and Brooklyn have taken steps back. We lost twice to Portland, three to the Nets, twice to Detroit, twice to Atlanta, twice to Chicago, twice to Miami, twice to the Jazz, once to Washington.

The good teams pretty much had their way with Toronto, so there isn't a lot of downside there.

I don;t see how we can possibly be five games worse.

And even 32 wins would leave us sixth worst record again, using current over-under forecasts.

[Scase]

Yes, by playing our starters 38 minutes a game and essentially play transition as much as possible by generating turnovers at the PoA. We don't have the level of defenders that can put that type of pressure for 48 minutes consistently. There are diminishing returns with that type of scheme that wears players down. It was gimmicky and was figured out the following year we went 41-41. The minute the game slows down we got picked apart and if a team has a guy that can get them a bucket or make a play in the half court we were sunk.

Which makes this even less likely considering if we look at the minute averages last season, Scottie was a team high 35mpg and the rest of the starters were 30-33mpg. Darko doesn't grind starters into dust, he plays the bench/rookies. He knows he's here to develop players first, and win games second.

That's it. The messaging from the FO to the coach is not about being competitive or making the Playoffs. None of those words were spoken since the trades happened last year. You hear rebuild and development. This team isn't being measured by how many wins it get this year in an 82 game season. Winning is about development of our young team.

Exactly, and unless Scottie somehow blows up into some 1st team level player, I'm not seeing any unexpected massive jumps. I just hope that when we inevitably shut it down, it's sooner rather than later. I suspect the bottom of the league this year is going to be pretty tightly packed, and even a couple extra wins could make a massive difference with the ping pong balls.

[dagger]

Which makes this even less likely considering if we look at the minute averages last season, Scottie was a team high 35mpg and the rest of the starters were 30-33mpg. Darko doesn't grind starters into dust, he plays the bench/rookies. He knows he's here to develop players first, and win games second.

That's it. The messaging from the FO to the coach is not about being competitive or making the Playoffs. None of those words were spoken since the trades happened last year. You hear rebuild and development. This team isn't being measured by how many wins it get this year in an 82 game season. Winning is about development of our young team.

Exactly, and unless Scottie somehow blows up into some 1st team level player, I'm not seeing any unexpected massive jumps. I just hope that when we inevitably shut it down, it's sooner rather than later. I suspect the bottom of the league this year is going to be pretty tightly packed, and even a couple extra wins could make a massive difference with the ping pong balls.

Ask a Detroit fan about this obsession with ping pong balls. It as better to be Atlanta than Detroit.

[YogurtProducer]

That's it. The messaging from the FO to the coach is not about being competitive or making the Playoffs. None of those words were spoken since the trades happened last year. You hear rebuild and development. This team isn't being measured by how many wins it get this year in an 82 game season. Winning is about development of our young team.

Exactly, and unless Scottie somehow blows up into some 1st team level player, I'm not seeing any unexpected massive jumps. I just hope that when we inevitably shut it down, it's sooner rather than later. I suspect the bottom of the league this year is going to be pretty tightly packed, and even a couple extra wins could make a massive difference with the ping pong balls.

Ask a Detroit fan about this obsession with ping pong balls. It as better to be Atlanta than Detroit.

It is absolutely ridiculous to "hope" we shut it down early in the year. You know what I hope? I hope that our young guys show they are worthy NBA players are we end up blowing our win projection out of the water. You know - like a normal fan does.

We just gave Scottie and IQ MASSIVE deals. Masai/Bobby can say they are pushing development all they want, but that does not mean "tanking". That means in a random December game we don't ride Olynyk for 32 minutes, but it does not mean we are preparing to win 25 games. WE just paid Barnes and IQ major money - we obvious have high aspirations they rae upper echelon guys as soon as next year. If you got that, you don't plan/hope to win 25 games. If we come out and suck it may very well be what the season becomes - but we are definitely not hoping for that.

I think people are also highly underestimated how much depth matters in the RS, and how limited we had in that regard in the prior seasons. Our bench now is far from good, but it is also not gonna be basement dweller anymore. PEople point to our bench being "young" but realistically outside of Walter, I would not expect any of our rookies to be rotational players this season (and even then, Walter is not a lock to get minutes).

Mitchell, Dick, Brown, Ochai, Olynyk are a major improvement in our 5 thru 9 slots compared to prior years. If any of the multiple rookies we have hits and is playable this year that is just another step in the right direction.

[Scase]

That's it. The messaging from the FO to the coach is not about being competitive or making the Playoffs. None of those words were spoken since the trades happened last year. You hear rebuild and development. This team isn't being measured by how many wins it get this year in an 82 game season. Winning is about development of our young team.

Exactly, and unless Scottie somehow blows up into some 1st team level player, I'm not seeing any unexpected massive jumps. I just hope that when we inevitably shut it down, it's sooner rather than later. I suspect the bottom of the league this year is going to be pretty tightly packed, and even a couple extra wins could make a massive difference with the ping pong balls.

Ask a Detroit fan about this obsession with ping pong balls. It as better to be Atlanta than Detroit.

Go ask a statistician to explain probabilities to you.

[Shakril]

Exactly, and unless Scottie somehow blows up into some 1st team level player, I'm not seeing any unexpected massive jumps. I just hope that when we inevitably shut it down, it's sooner rather than later. I suspect the bottom of the league this year is going to be pretty tightly packed, and even a couple extra wins could make a massive difference with the ping pong balls.

Ask a Detroit fan about this obsession with ping pong balls. It as better to be Atlanta than Detroit.

Go ask a statistician to explain probabilities to you.

You should take your own advice to heart.
The probability to be successful with a high pick arent as good as you might believe.

For example the top 3 picks:

In the last 20 years teams who actually won the chip with a top 3 pick as their Lead guy werent that many. Most of those picks changed teams to win. For example: LeBron, Ad, Dwight (won as a roleplayer), Bogut (won as a roleplayer), KD, Al Horford (as a Roleplayer). The list of those that failed is much longer. You can always go top 6 pick or 8 it wont change much more. In Essence, tanking a season or multiple ones for the rather slim chance of getting a great player is not worth trying. I am not talking about end of season tanking like dallas did. We are talking about Pistons or others level of stupid tanking, which you are advocating for.


Nuggets, Bucks and Raptors won their chips with players they drafted after #10 and traded for the others. Warriors pick was #8 with curry. Lakers have signed through Free agency or trades their top players to win. Boston is the only team to win in the last 8 years with a top 3 pick they drafted themselves. Before that it was cleveland where LeBron had to come back cause Irving was not able to alone, which is a unique situation in itself.

My Point is:

Teams that develop a winning culture and develop their players, those are the ones winning the chip. They can draft and develop good players no matter the position in the Draft. The ones tanking, fail always and their players usually leave or their teams never get to the promised land.


Thats why i always will be against Tanking cause it only kills every chance you have of winning.

[Indeed]

Under. We are likely to avoid picking in the 10th - 14th on the next draft.
Last year was 25 wins, I suppose we may end up being around 20 wins.

Oh, come on. We not only had a season disrupted by trades, major injuries, and sadly, deaths of family members, but some of the teams above Toronto have packed it in already. Chicago, Atlanta and Brooklyn have taken steps back. We lost twice to Portland, three to the Nets, twice to Detroit, twice to Atlanta, twice to Chicago, twice to Miami, twice to the Jazz, once to Washington.

The good teams pretty much had their way with Toronto, so there isn't a lot of downside there.

I don;t see how we can possibly be five games worse.

And even 32 wins would leave us sixth worst record again, using current over-under forecasts.

Without Siakam and OG, it is difficult to believe we can win some close games for 40 wins. Some injuries on our major players for 10 games or so would make us 35 wins, and if we realized we are about 35 wins, we might tank like last year to be in the bottom 5, where last year would be 25 wins, and might as well not get any win after trade deadline.

[AbC?]

I'll take the under, even if they stay healthy. Defense should be amongst the worst, no shot creation, bench sucks, lack of shooters, by all accounts this is a bad basketball team.

The over on OKC @ 54.5 is free money.

[Clutch0z24]

The Hornets are the team i think will help our Tank if Masai decides to go that route ....Big If but if Melo can have a healthy year , Along with how good Miller is looking ....They made some decent moves to surround the 2 players....I like Green/Mark Williams as well....

The east will be a pure Joke in the bottom of the standings next year ....How i see the year playing out...

Hornets/Hawks/Spurs/Jazz end up with better rocords than us...

Nets/Bulls/Wizards end up being bottom 3

And we fall somewhere between
Blazers/Pistons/Raptors

I think as it stands we could end up with top 6 lotto odds....Hornets will be the team to watch though...But i feel with Hawks keeping Trae they are easily better than us....Wemby and the Spurs added much needed vetern leadership and CP3/Wemby duo prolly lethal even at CP3s age...They better than us...Jazz can go either way if Lauri gets dealt but i have a feeling a deal doesn't get made due to the high asking price...So Jazz are better by default ....

No one is out tanking Bulls/Nets/Wizards unless something crazy happens...Maybe Bulls cant get rid of Lavine/Vuc and they both end up having crazy years to help push the bulls to be better than what they wanna be....But thats a long shot...

Pistons if Cade comes back healthy i can see them being actually better next year, And Blazers will be much better as well....Raptors fall in that range ...Could be worst team or the best out the 3 though all just depends on injuries/bad games etc...

Should be fun though to see us have decent lottery odds in such a stacked draft ...Draft Lottery night will have alot of sweaty palms...