Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 9

[PushDaRock]

We’re seeing the physical limitations with guys like him and J Dub.

Too early to write off J Dub and his track record (61 TS% in first 2 seasons) suggests he will bounce back from an efficiency stand point.

J Dub is also a much better defender at this point.

He’s an efficient player, I don’t think this current J Dub is who he is but he can’t be the volume scorer OKC wants him to be. He’s not a fluid enough athlete.

His ideal role on a contender is probably 20/5/5 guy with elite 2 wing play. I think Chet will emerge as that 2nd best scorer/player on the team if he stays healthy.

That's more than good enough if he's playing with SGA and Chet. It's basically an embarrassment of riches to be able to let him try to do more but also know he can scale back down into what he was before.

[HumbleRen]

Too early to write off J Dub and his track record (61 TS% in first 2 seasons) suggests he will bounce back from an efficiency stand point.

J Dub is also a much better defender at this point.

He’s an efficient player, I don’t think this current J Dub is who he is but he can’t be the volume scorer OKC wants him to be. He’s not a fluid enough athlete.

His ideal role on a contender is probably 20/5/5 guy with elite 2 wing play. I think Chet will emerge as that 2nd best scorer/player on the team if he stays healthy.

That's more than good enough if he's playing with SGA and Chet. It's basically an embarrassment of riches to be able to let him try to do more but also know he can scale back down into what he was before.

More than enough long term wise, but not this year. If they lose this year, it’ll because he couldn’t score at a 2nd option level.

And what I mean by 2nd option isn’t some Siakam esque **** lol. That was only passable cause Kawhi went on a MJ/Lebron type of playoff run.

J Dub needs to be closer to averaging 25 a night than he is 20 in these playoffs.

[PushDaRock]

Too early to write off J Dub and his track record (61 TS% in first 2 seasons) suggests he will bounce back from an efficiency stand point.

J Dub is also a much better defender at this point.

"Much better" is hyperbole.

His efficiency in his first two seasons was at lower volume and a higher proportion of his shots in the RA, but you're right: his short game has been struggling a bit this season, so it's likely that he'll normalize at least a little. Probably not all the way to 60%, but maybe to league average or a shade above. We'll have to see; his 3pt shot has been up and down over his first couple seasons as well, so where he lands with that will make a reasonable difference, too.

It's pretty subjective I guess but I think J Dub's motor on that end is just way more consistent and he guards on ball better. They're pretty equal in defensive versatility and can guard all 5 positions but I think J Dub just does it better. Scottie should be the much better help defender because of his size but the shot blocking is down this year. Plus, one is on the best defensive team in the league and the other one of the worst. That skews things too.

I think J Dub certainly has more potential than Scottie as a 3 level scorer. He already finishes well at the rim, has the mid range game and has shown he can shoot the 3 ball too at times. Either way I have a lot more confidence in the guy that's at least been efficient in his career to figure it out than someone who has never been.

[PushDaRock]

He’s an efficient player, I don’t think this current J Dub is who he is but he can’t be the volume scorer OKC wants him to be. He’s not a fluid enough athlete.

His ideal role on a contender is probably 20/5/5 guy with elite 2 wing play. I think Chet will emerge as that 2nd best scorer/player on the team if he stays healthy.

That's more than good enough if he's playing with SGA and Chet. It's basically an embarrassment of riches to be able to let him try to do more but also know he can scale back down into what he was before.

More than enough long term wise, but not this year. If they lose this year, it’ll because he couldn’t score at a 2nd option level.

And what I mean by 2nd option isn’t some Siakam esque **** lol. That was only passable cause Kawhi went on a MJ/Lebron type of playoff run.

J Dub needs to be closer to averaging 25 a night than he is 20 in these playoffs.

Well, I mean with the level SGA is at, not a stretch to think that a Siakam level 2nd option is still good enough.

[tsherkin]

It's pretty subjective I guess but I think J Dub's motor on that end is just way more consistent and he guards on ball better. They're pretty equal in defensive versatility and can guard all 5 positions but I think J Dub just does it better.

I can at least see an argument for "better," but "much better" seems hyperbolic.

Scottie should be the much better help defender because of his size

Mmm, dunno about that. He's 6'7, he appears to be doing fine to me. Yeah, he isn't going for 1.5 a game, but he's contesting well, getting deflections... He's second on the team in deflections at 2.5, behind Poeltl's 2.7. Leads the team in offensive loose balls recovered, tied for second in defensive loose balls recovered, second on the team in contested twos, third in contested threes...

Like, he's all over the map for us defensively. Looking just at his raw BPG is probably not the best way to evaluate his utility to us on that end.

I think J Dub certainly has more potential than Scottie as a 3 level scorer.

Possible. If he gets the three back he showed in his first two seasons, then he's got something to work with, yes. Really nice middie. Otherwise not really that stunning, but he has some tools. He's certainly a guy who looks like he can be a quality 2nd or 3rd scorer without too much extra development needed. He's certainly an intriguing prospect. Hasn't shown a HUGE upswing in his development arc. Still only in his third season, and he's the same age as Barnes, so we'll see. His burst doesn't impress me that much but he has a pretty sound handle, takes contact pretty well, and he has a RUDE pull-up. Bunch to be excited about and keeo one interested watching him, for sure.

[Indeed]

Did RJ win ROTY? No
Has RJ been an All Star? No
RJ also signed his contract 2 years before Barnes did. Contracts have gone up.

And again, about Barnes being paid near max, he was the only ROTY and only All Star from his draft class when everyone signed....DESPITE being the guy most thought would take longer to reach his potential. Raps had no legs to stand on to offer way less than others in his draft class got.

Like Lowry, Barnes can be the 3rd scoring option but 2nd best all around player on a good team. We just don't have that top scorer who slots others into a more natural slot.

Oh, and speaking of Kyle, in year 4 he was a:
9.1pt, 3.6reb, 4.5ast guy shooting 27.2% from 3
Maybe let's just have a little patience with our:
20-8-6.5 guy. Development is never linear.

Oh, and before I get labeled as something, if we ever get to consolidate for a star, Barnes should not be deemed untouchable. No one should.

You failed to understand the logic here.
Barnes being paid near-max (like previously Siakam) is asked to carry the team.

Meanwhile, Lowry is more than about 3 point shooting. Lowry free throw rate was over 50%, while Barnes is half of Lowry.
It is silly that you think 3 point shooting is the only reason of Lowry being great. It is just something Barnes can easily added and being a borderline near-max player, not even close to Lowry being a rim pressure.

Barnes is being asked to carry the team because we lack other options. And like Siakam, that isn't his fault.

You missed the entire point on Lowry. It was to show that guys all develop differently and Barnes still has lots of time to become a better all around player. Oh, and as for FT....Lowry in year 4 was getting to the line less than Barnes.

And again, Barnes contract is based on what he has already accomplished. To think he was just going to sign for 25 million is ludicrous.

Huh, Lowry has a FTR 31% at age 24, while Barnes is current 26%. Because Barnes has more possessions that results in higher raw stats, that means he is providing rim pressure

Meanwhile, it was Siakam's fault back then, now Barnes got an exception, great. Expectation is a near-max contract should carry the team, because there is no other room for another player without getting a less bench.

[HumbleRen]

That's more than good enough if he's playing with SGA and Chet. It's basically an embarrassment of riches to be able to let him try to do more but also know he can scale back down into what he was before.

More than enough long term wise, but not this year. If they lose this year, it’ll because he couldn’t score at a 2nd option level.

And what I mean by 2nd option isn’t some Siakam esque **** lol. That was only passable cause Kawhi went on a MJ/Lebron type of playoff run.

J Dub needs to be closer to averaging 25 a night than he is 20 in these playoffs.

Well, I mean with the level SGA is at, not a stretch to think that a Siakam level 2nd option is still good enough.

It's a different beast in the playoffs. Short rotations means more volume for the guys playing real minutes, it won't be enough until Chet emerges as a bona fide 2nd guy.

[Scase]

I wonder if his extension contract might eventually look like an overpay lol.

Yikes.

There isn't a GM in the league that wouldn't pay that contract for a 20/8/7 guy giving very good defence and that court vision. Our team is just ass and he's being asked to do more than he is capable of. Also, we're intentionally being bad, so hard to put that on him.

[HumbleRen]

I wonder if his extension contract might eventually look like an overpay lol.

Yikes.

There isn't a GM in the league that wouldn't pay that contract for a 20/8/7 guy giving very good defence and that court vision. Our team is just ass and he's being asked to do more than he is capable of. Also, we're intentionally being bad, so hard to put that on him.

Just look at what OG and Siakam went for lol.

2 way players will always go for a premium on the market. Aaron Gordon is 35M yearly on his contracts lol.

[PushDaRock]

It's pretty subjective I guess but I think J Dub's motor on that end is just way more consistent and he guards on ball better. They're pretty equal in defensive versatility and can guard all 5 positions but I think J Dub just does it better.

I can at least see an argument for "better," but "much better" seems hyperbolic.

Scottie should be the much better help defender because of his size

Mmm, dunno about that. He's 6'7, he appears to be doing fine to me. Yeah, he isn't going for 1.5 a game, but he's contesting well, getting deflections... He's second on the team in deflections at 2.5, behind Poeltl's 2.7. Leads the team in offensive loose balls recovered, tied for second in defensive loose balls recovered, second on the team in contested twos, third in contested threes...

Like, he's all over the map for us defensively. Looking just at his raw BPG is probably not the best way to evaluate his utility to us on that end.

I think J Dub certainly has more potential than Scottie as a 3 level scorer.

Possible. If he gets the three back he showed in his first two seasons, then he's got something to work with, yes. Really nice middie. Otherwise not really that stunning, but he has some tools. He's certainly a guy who looks like he can be a quality 2nd or 3rd scorer without too much extra development needed. He's certainly an intriguing prospect. Hasn't shown a HUGE upswing in his development arc. Still only in his third season, and he's the same age as Barnes, so we'll see. His burst doesn't impress me that much but he has a pretty sound handle, takes contact pretty well, and he has a RUDE pull-up. Bunch to be excited about and keeo one interested watching him, for sure.

Well, I think he's definitely the better defender between them. I have J Dub as an All-NBA level defender and don't think Scottie is in that category or even close right now, so that's why I have him as "much better".

It's pretty hard to evaluate his utility defensively on a team this bad on that end. He's our best defender, but that's not saying much on a bottom 3 defensive team.

J Dub's absolute ceiling is probably fringe top 10 player imo if everything breaks right. But, it's more likely he's around a top 20-30 player.

[PushDaRock]

More than enough long term wise, but not this year. If they lose this year, it’ll because he couldn’t score at a 2nd option level.

And what I mean by 2nd option isn’t some Siakam esque **** lol. That was only passable cause Kawhi went on a MJ/Lebron type of playoff run.

J Dub needs to be closer to averaging 25 a night than he is 20 in these playoffs.

Well, I mean with the level SGA is at, not a stretch to think that a Siakam level 2nd option is still good enough.

It's a different beast in the playoffs. Short rotations means more volume for the guys playing real minutes, it won't be enough until Chet emerges as a bona fide 2nd guy.

Well, it also depends on if their 3rd/4th scorers can be effective out there too. If not, then yes they might need him closer to 25 a game.

[tsherkin]

Well, I think he's definitely the better defender between them. I have J Dub as an All-NBA level defender and don't think Scottie is in that category or even close right now, so that's why I have him as "much better".

I"m inclined to disagree with that, but that's fine; we can agree to disagree on that one.

It's pretty hard to evaluate his utility defensively on a team this bad on that end.

That isn't true, no. And it's equally possible to say that it's hard to evaluate Jalen's independent value on a team as good defensively as the Thunder. Which seems like comparable nonsense to me. Scottie does all the things you're looking for on defense, he just doesn't have anywhere near the same kind of help around him as Williams enjoys.

[Vampirate]

We’re seeing the physical limitations with guys like him and J Dub.

Too early to write off J Dub and his track record (61 TS% in first 2 seasons) suggests he will bounce back from an efficiency stand point.

J Dub is also a much better defender at this point.

He’s an efficient player, I don’t think this current J Dub is who he is but he can’t be the volume scorer OKC wants him to be. He’s not a fluid enough athlete.

His ideal role on a contender is probably 20/5/5 guy with elite 2 wing play. I think Chet will emerge as that 2nd best scorer/player on the team if he stays healthy.

Barnes declining FTr and FT% is largely the biggest reason why he's struggling scoring so much. If barnes shot 24% from 3 it'd only result in 1 extra point per game.|

He needs to get to the FT line.


J Will, actually has a very poor FTr, and his Ftr has actually declined every year.

.243
.223
.219


Barnes

.231
.242
.266
.252

Barnes was ascending until this year.

Barnes FT% is actually as low as it's been

73.5%
77.2%
78.1%
73.0%


What Barnes really needs to do is address his FT issues somehow. The mid range game is great, but a jump shot is unlikely to get fouled unless it's feared.

Barnes likely needs more of a stop and go game which is handle dependant.

[Thaddy]

3am in the morning what do NBA players do?

Ja Morant spends that time in clubs flashing guns and playing out his gangster fantasy.

Scottie is defending the stupid head tuck play against Giannis.

[tsherkin]

Barnes declining FTr and FT% is largely the biggest reason why he's struggling scoring so much. If barnes shot 24% from 3 it'd only result in 1 extra point per game.|

I'd say the 18% drop-off in shots in the RA is a bigger culprit than him having the same FTM/g and FTA/g as last season. 26.6% FTr last year on 15.7 FGA/g was a bit of an outlier for him, but it provided 4.2 FTA/g and 3.3 FTM/g. He is currently averaging... 3.1 FTM/g and 4.2 FTA/g. The difference is more in FT% than meaningful change from FTr.

Now, a higher draw rate would be better, but league average is .244 and he's at .252. It could be worse, and it isn't a meaningful difference compared to last year.

Last year, he was taking about 4.25 FGA/g in the RA. This year, he's been taking 3.17. Given that he's shooting 76.1% on those shots this season, that's a much larger deal than anything else.

And yes, there's a 0.3 ppg difference based on his crappier 3pt shooting this year. It'd help, but only so much. Same with drawing at a comparable rate to last year. He needs to get himself to/above 30% FTr before his FTr becomes any sort of relevant, and that's going to be a work in progress. He can't fix everything all at once, but he CAN stop trading so many shots in the RA for middies, which is largely what he's done. Instead, he should be trading 3s for those middies, because he really, really isn't a good 3pt shooter at all. A little more love from the corner MIGHT help, but he's been pretty crap on those this season so far as well, which has been disheartening.

[Tripod]

You failed to understand the logic here.
Barnes being paid near-max (like previously Siakam) is asked to carry the team.

Meanwhile, Lowry is more than about 3 point shooting. Lowry free throw rate was over 50%, while Barnes is half of Lowry.
It is silly that you think 3 point shooting is the only reason of Lowry being great. It is just something Barnes can easily added and being a borderline near-max player, not even close to Lowry being a rim pressure.

Barnes is being asked to carry the team because we lack other options. And like Siakam, that isn't his fault.

You missed the entire point on Lowry. It was to show that guys all develop differently and Barnes still has lots of time to become a better all around player. Oh, and as for FT....Lowry in year 4 was getting to the line less than Barnes.

And again, Barnes contract is based on what he has already accomplished. To think he was just going to sign for 25 million is ludicrous.

Huh, Lowry has a FTR 31% at age 24, while Barnes is current 26%. Because Barnes has more possessions that results in higher raw stats, that means he is providing rim pressure

Meanwhile, it was Siakam's fault back then, now Barnes got an exception, great. Expectation is a near-max contract should carry the team, because there is no other room for another player without getting a less bench.

Oh....just like Mobley is carring the Cavs?

Oh wait, he has 2 scorers better than him including a star in Mitchell.

And as for Siakam, we tried to get KD. We tried to get Dame. We knew he wasn't a legit #1.

As Scase said, every GM would have given Barnes that contract. To pretend otherwise is idiotic.

[tsherkin]

Huh, Lowry has a FTR 31% at age 24, while Barnes is current 26%. Because Barnes has more possessions that results in higher raw stats, that means he is providing rim pressure

This is a bit misleading.

Lowry's year-by-year FTr through 2020:

Code: Select all

2007: .737
2008: .588
2009: .521
2010: .560
2011: .310
2012: .386
2013: .384
2014: .356
2015: .299
2016: .410
2017: .398
2018: .276
2019: .263
2020: .427


So in essence, you're seeing on the first bad year he had. He was very, very clearly quite adept at drawing fouls pretty much from the word go. He was a .566 FTr guy in college, too. A trend. Scottie was at .338 in his college season and has been quite tepid even on lower volume. Notably below average his first two seasons, but above average last year and this season.

They aren't really the same sort of situation at all.

[HangTime]

Y'all got to be patient. We've seen Scottie dominate at different points in the games, throughout the first first 3.5 years.

Right now, it's about helping develop the younger guys, and showcasing the trade the trade chips.

Y'all want him to dominate from the start, but he knows it's better to get others going first. Especially when you're developing

[ATLTimekeeper]

Currently -5.2 ON/OFF on offense.

Looking back through the data we've never had a featured player have such a negative impact on our offense (as far as the nba.com data is collected). DeMar hit -2 a couple of times (when we had Lou Will off the bench) and in his second season. Even Bargnani was a net positive every year but the one where his elbow was busted and he barely played.

[tsherkin]

Y'all got to be patient. We've seen Scottie dominate at different points in the games, throughout the first first 3.5 years.

This has been a byline for a while. To be frank, when guys don't make "The Leap" in their second or third seasons, it becomes increasingly unlikely that they ever will, particularly when it's rooted in certain types of skills and what have you, and when they lack elite tools.

And that's fine. A 2nd or 3rd guy who has strong versatility is also a very valuable player. And Scottie may be improving, but we're not broadly actually seeing results from that to any meaningful extent. His best month so far is incomplete January at 54.8% TS, which is straight-up AWFUL (2.6% below league average). So he hasn't figured out how to put anything together to a meaningful extent for supporting volume yet, and that's a problem at this point.

So patience is in short supply. We all try to retain perspective, of course: he rebounds well, he hustles on D and does a good job there. He's developed as a playmaker. We're seeing any kind of progress in his mid-range game. His 4th quarters are looking decent. His second halves in general, for that matter. But there are still major barriers to him being worthwhile in any sort of volume role, and impatience is inevitable, after all.