Trust the process.

[billy_hoyle]

These lottery odds man. If we finished 5th last, there is a 55.6% chance we pick lower than 5th overall.

Exactly. After scrutinizing the actual numbers....imagine paying any intangible cost (ie development, moral, chemistry) for the difference between 5th last and 7th last.

The people who worry about that are either math illiterate or percieve team development in a video game context wherein the players are robots.

They will say "its a top 4 draft". Yah we heard that before. They will pretend that the outcomes are sure things. And in 3 years we'll all agree that the best player came from the 8th slot while all the tank ppl are hyper-focused on the 2029 draft. Which will be a "top 3 draft" lol.

Hey look at this. Someone who has clearly followed the draft for more than a few years.

With the new odds it's even less incentivized to pay the tanking cost.

[Shakril]

Detroit is balling out rn. Last season they lost 30 in a row. A lot can change in a year.

IQ/Scottie/RJ/Ingram/Gradey + the rooks (Shead, Battle, Ja'Kobe, Mogbo) + the blue chipper (Chomche).

Pair that with a top-5 pick this year? Let's say Khaman Malauch. Oh man, oh man.

We're in a good spot right now. I think we'll be battling with Detroit/Orlando for future of the East very, very soon. Probably next year.

Just need to stay the course with the tank and not fall out of the bottom-5. Ideally, we could get to #4, but I think bottom-3 is out of reach now.

Prepare some new taglines. "We the North" needs a new modern twist.

Pump the breaks on the Pistons. They have their first decent season since forever. Lets see if they can even build upon it in the future.

And we dont even know if BBQ + BI even works

[TheProfessor]

Detroit is balling out rn. Last season they lost 30 in a row. A lot can change in a year.

IQ/Scottie/RJ/Ingram/Gradey + the rooks (Shead, Battle, Ja'Kobe, Mogbo) + the blue chipper (Chomche).

Pair that with a top-5 pick this year? Let's say Khaman Malauch. Oh man, oh man.

We're in a good spot right now. I think we'll be battling with Detroit/Orlando for future of the East very, very soon. Probably next year.

Just need to stay the course with the tank and not fall out of the bottom-5. Ideally, we could get to #4, but I think bottom-3 is out of reach now.

Prepare some new taglines. "We the North" needs a new modern twist.

Trust what process? Detroit built their teams from sucking for several years and getting 5th picks + 1st overall pick. It's nothing like how Masai has built our team, which is refusal to bottom out and tank. Why would you expose yourself to such blatant error?

This summer, if we were to sign a 32-year old, a 28-year old and trade a young player for another 32-year old, you guys would lose your sh*t. And that's exactly what the Pistons did, which has led to their resurgence (signing Tobias, Malik, and trading Grimes for THJ).

They signed players on SHORT/cheap contracts that play defense have the shown the ability to shoot. Yes, Malik Beasley and Tobias Harris are contributing to winning but guess what if they weren't winning and still playing well they would be traded for assets because one expires this year and another expires next year. And if they play poorly again no issues, they can tank and cut bait because again very short contracts. THjr for Grimes trade yes that would piss me off extremely, but again still defensible. Because it was an expiring for an expiring for a bigger position of need. And THJR has sucked really bad, but its okay because he is an expiring contract.

They choose to do this because they had a core of really good young players that were flashing talent, Duren, Cade and thompson to a lesser extent Ivey. They got these players from tanking. Raptors tanked once and didn't even get the true blue chippers in the draft (Mobley, Cade) and then decided to play their load on flawed players like Ingram, IQ and Barrett, via overpaying or giving up assets. Difference between Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and THjr and Ingram, IQ and Barrett is:

1. These players were brought into supplement a core that was created from tanking not to be the core.
2. These players cost 47m combined, and have been only signed for 1 to 2 years so its easy to cut bait.
3. Only cost money and an expiring rookie where as our flawed players cost and 1 first+Prized expiring (OG) and will cost 100m for at least the next 3 years combined.
4. The players they signed have no real chance of being albatrosses and actually can be flipped for positive value if required. Where as ours have a significant chance and we are already seeing it unfold (IQ)

[gp2015]

So you mean trust the tanking process?

[ChillPill]

The point of tanking is to get a superstar. However, there are so preciously few of those guys, your chances are really low of getting that superstar even via repeatedly tanking. I think it's just as much right place, right time as anything. As good as Masai has been at drafting, he hasn't drafted a superstar in his entire career.

Sure, there are the generational #1s, LeBron and Wemby. You have at best 14% now to get those guys.

Otherwise, you have to identify that superstar, which is not so evident (otherwise, they'd always go 1st). A bunch of recent superstars didn't even go in the top-5 (Jokic, Giannis, Shai, Curry, Kawhi, Butler as well).

Then, you might not even know you have a superstar until several years later. Like with Shai. At which point, who knows where your team or the player is at.

If I'm going to throw away 5 years, 400 straight games of turning your organisation into a void, I want a much higher chance of getting that superstar than there actually is IMO.

[TorontoBarneys]

Cade is what Barnes wishes he was.

[Pointgod]

Trust what process? Detroit built their teams from sucking for several years and getting 5th picks + 1st overall pick. It's nothing like how Masai has built our team, which is refusal to bottom out and tank. Why would you expose yourself to such blatant error?

This summer, if we were to sign a 32-year old, a 28-year old and trade a young player for another 32-year old, you guys would lose your sh*t. And that's exactly what the Pistons did, which has led to their resurgence (signing Tobias, Malik, and trading Grimes for THJ).

They signed players on SHORT/cheap contracts that play defense have the shown the ability to shoot. Yes, Malik Beasley and Tobias Harris are contributing to winning but guess what if they weren't winning and still playing well they would be traded for assets because one expires this year and another expires next year. And if they play poorly again no issues, they can tank and cut bait because again very short contracts. THjr for Grimes trade yes that would piss me off extremely, but again still defensible. Because it was an expiring for an expiring for a bigger position of need. And THJR has sucked really bad, but its okay because he is an expiring contract.

They choose to do this because they had a core of really good young players that were flashing talent, Duren, Cade and thompson to a lesser extent Ivey. They got these players from tanking. Raptors tanked once and didn't even get the true blue chippers in the draft (Mobley, Cade) and then decided to play their load on flawed players like Ingram, IQ and Barrett, via overpaying or giving up assets. Difference between Malik Beasley, Tobias Harris and THjr and Ingram, IQ and Barrett is:

1. These players were brought into supplement a core that was created from tanking not to be the core.
2. These players cost 47m combined, and have been only signed for 1 to 2 years so its easy to cut bait.
3. Only cost money and an expiring rookie where as our flawed players cost and 1 first+Prized expiring (OG) and will cost 100m for at least the next 3 years combined.
4. The players they signed have no real chance of being albatrosses and actually can be flipped for positive value if required. Where as ours have a significant chance and we are already seeing it unfold (IQ)

Well said.

[Pointgod]

Cade is what Barnes wishes he was.

Cade has been playing absolutely nuts, if Barnes stepped up like that we could be an ECF team.

[ATLTimekeeper]

I don't know. I assume with the amount of money they invest in scouting/evaluation that alot more substance goes into these decisions than you described here. Obviously...there is also alot of cat'n'mouse deception between scouting departments because noone wants other teams to know how they are evaluating and what prospects they like. Huge advantages can be gained in knowing how other team's scouting departments work and who they're looking at. Tons of smokescreens and such. Otherwise....a team like the Pelicans can forego all scouting expenses by hiring one guy to monitor what the raptors are doing and piggybacking off their drafting success.

So I wouldn't trust any statements coming out the FO that depict these decisions as being as flippant as you described.

It'd be interesting to see a total, all-in dollar figure for how much a team typically spends per year on prospect evaluation and scouting. I'm gonna make a wild guess of between 3 to 5 million.

I wouldn't say it's flippant. These are all players that were identified to begin with. What I'm saying is that yes, even the Raptors under Masai aren't lightyears ahead of every other franchise. And your premise that they are trading picks with confidence that there won't be players there they love is just weak. When they're trading picks they don't even know where they could be drafting, who will declare, etc. There's just way too many variables for your moneyball analogy.

I think what some of us that follow the draft closely discovered is that when they implemented IBM Watson, they hit a vein of success. They obviously used a statistical filter, and it only works with NCAA data as they had not drafted outside the NCAA since Bruno until last year when they took a flier on Chomche.

The fans who follow the draft are literally the worst ppl in evaluating relative value. The biggest reason why this is is the case.....they are never held to account for their predictions.

If I predict that Tyrese Maxey will make all nba next year....ppl will remember my prediction if I turn out to be wrong.

Draft ppl make predictions about prospects and if they're wrong....Noone knows or cares about the name of the player if the prediction doesn't come to fruition. So you are never held to account for the wrong prediction. THAT is the allure of the "draft expert" fan and the "tank" advocate. It's a stance that minimizes vulnerability to being "publically wrong".

No poster faces any blowback for loving Scoot Henderson two years ago to this date. And that's the other allure...whatever predictions one makes about the mystery box draft prospects....the truth won't be fully revealed for like 3 to 5 years. So one can be reckless in their optimism without feeling the threat of looking dumb.

So endless optimism for teenage prospects. Dead-end cynicism for any player over the age of 23.

Pensare is the most hilarious example of this. The way this guy talks about the draft....it's so transparent in what it's really about for him. It's a stance where he can make bold claims while remaining invulnerable. So he naturally pretends to have expertise in it. The whole thing is hilarious.

Any and EVERY basketball youtuber that claims expertise in the draft that does not share with you their board and their previous year's boards is a fraud. If they publicize their board and previous boards then at least you can be sure that they are genuine in their draft interest.

It's notable that this specific dynamic is strongest amongst basketball fans compared to other sports.

In anycase...to address the meat of your reply....the fact is, the raptors ARE lightyears ahead of other teams in draft selection outcomes. Think about it. What raptor picks in recent history stick out to you as bad?

Malachi flynn wasn't a good pick. God it was annoying when a segment of the fanbase was high on him for no reason. But he can't be far off from expected outcome for the 27th pick or whatever he was. The only other one I can think of is the Brazilian guy. He was a pure bust.

Can't think of any picks we've made that resulted in lower than expected outcome. And that is extremely rare for any sports FO over a significant time period (we're talking close to a decade yah).

whoa, I think you went off without really coming close to what I was getting at.

People on the draft board discovered a link to when the Raptors started drafting successfully. I said nothing about their own prognosticative powers.

If they were lightyears ahead, we'd have a better team. The premise was they traded picks knowing that there wasn't anyone worth drafting, and we know from, like, results, that that is not the case.

[Mattatron]

Gtfoh

[DelAbbot]

The process really hasn't been fully committed in a single direction, and now we are going to miss out on the top group of 5 good players

[beanbag]

We literally have the 5th worst record in the NBA today. Do you ever even try to make sense?

Nah just complaining endlessly.

You are all denying we will end this season around 8-9th

You were wrong, we finished 7th.

[PushDaRock]

The process really hasn't been fully committed in a single direction, and now we are going to miss out on the top group of 5 good players

In Masai We Trust!!!

[DelAbbot]

The process really hasn't been fully committed in a single direction, and now we are going to miss out on the top group of 5 good players

In Masai We Trust!!!

Time to trust Ed Rogers

[PushDaRock]

The process really hasn't been fully committed in a single direction, and now we are going to miss out on the top group of 5 good players

In Masai We Trust!!!

Time to trust Ed Rogers

Maybe he can get us our own version of Shapiro/Atkins to run the show

[DelAbbot]

In Masai We Trust!!!

Time to trust Ed Rogers

Maybe he can get us our own version of Shapiro/Atkins to run the show

They are already here

[PushDaRock]

Time to trust Ed Rogers

Maybe he can get us our own version of Shapiro/Atkins to run the show

They are already here

so we extend Masai and Bobby?

[mdenny]

The process really hasn't been fully committed in a single direction, and now we are going to miss out on the top group of 5 good players

When the best 5 players from thus draft are identified 4 years from now...it is a certainty that we could've selected at least one of them with the 9th pick. It's likely we would have two of the top 5 players to pick from with the 9th pick.

[Tripod]

The process really hasn't been fully committed in a single direction, and now we are going to miss out on the top group of 5 good players

So you bump a 2.5 month old thread just to bitch in a different one? The others were not enough?

[Morris_Shatford]

The real question is simple, is it:
PRO - cess
or
PRAW- cess