Elephant in the room but isn't Barnes suppose to be getting better?

[ConSarnit]

Barnes onball%

2022: 18%
2023: 21%
2024: 20%
2025: 25%

He's 22nd percentile for positional TS% this year. In any case unless he finds realistic and sustainable ways to boost his TS% 25% is way too much.

He is having his best year as a technical defender but there's still a lot of room for growth in that regard. He's positionally elite at forcing turnovers and deflecting passes but not DFG%.

Defensive IQ and effort needs to continue to sharpen along with finding little ways here or there to improve his scoring efficiency even if it's not to a level that would make him a bonafide t16 player. Part of that can come from scaling him down again and him understanding what he's good at and embracing and exploiting it.

I think having an outlet like Ingram who can also relieve some of the offensive burden he has taken upon himself with limited success will genuinely be the litmus test. There's a realistic path for Barnes to just stop this trajectory of becoming increasingly ball-dominant and play in a way that would be conducive to winning.

I think if he could play small ball 5 more that could buy some time as he tries to round out his scoring game. We’ve seen flashes of really good rim protection. He has the strength to battle in the post. His pnr roll man numbers are decent (probably his best play-type as far as scoring efficiency is concerned) and he’d immediately be one of the best passers in the league in that role. He’d need to become a better screener. It would also help him get to the rim without needing to beat anyone off the dribble (something he isn’t good at). His post up numbers haven’t been good but he has the strength to bully most players and the passing to find open shooters.

We can probably get by in the regular season (when teams are less locked in) with Barnes as PF but if his 3pt shooting remains anemic I wager our offense would easily get shut down in the playoffs with him a Poeltl playing together.

[DelAbbot]

Remember when FVV and Thad was getting at Barnes to get him to work harder, and we all turned on them?

We owe Thad and especially FVV an apology. I lowkey miss his pecking order... make the young fellas hungry and take the ball/your position. Watching him mentor the young players in Houston, and watching their coaching staff/vets hold their young guys accountable is making me sad/jealous.

[Boogie!]

If everything breaks right in this scenario where the lower USG leads to above average efficiency and the D gets to All-NBA level, you're probably looking at a prime Ben Simmons type impact player. But, I think a lot would have to go right for that to happen and I wouldn't bet on it certainly.

Hmm the thing is that if you're taking the ball out of his hands more while his TS% could improve back to somewhere between .550-.570 it would affect his AST% greatly and that's where he stuffs the stat sheet mostly on offense.

I knew this could happen with Scottie and warned about it many times which is why I've always been on a "prove it" basis with him. Now that we're nearing the end of the failed wing Scottie experiment, can he successfully revert to forward Scottie, grow his forward skills, get that ORB% way back up and do a lot of dirty work on cuts and putbacks and start to develop what he has always been more naturally good at.

I've always said if he can be a little bit of Shawn Marion, and a little bit of Lamar Odom we got a really good player. A strong #3 on a contender.

I want him to go out there defend, rebound, be a secondary ball handler when the point guard needs relief, and score when there is a mismatch/cuts/off broken plays.

The concern with him in this role is he’s not good off the ball and he’s not an explosive athlete like Marion where he fights for put backs or dunks on people. He has trouble finishing inside and lacks the footwork to navigate in traffic. I keep saying it over and over again when people start talking about 3rd option, but realistically when you take the ball out of his hands what else does he do well that he can play off other people? His strength was supposed to be giving him the ball where he could use his court vision to create for others but as he’s shown he’s limited in that regard too because of a suspect handle, inability to break his man off the dribble or be a legitimate scoring threat off the dribble period.

So like I said last year, he absolutely needs to be a reliable off ball 3 point shooter to be even considered a 3rd option. Which again makes the fact he’s severely regressed on that end despite having the freedom to shoot whenever, very concerning for his future.

Then there’s the defensive aspect. Barnes has shown the ability to be a good team defender and in some capacity anchor the defense, but as a guy with a limited offensive role, he doesn’t even have the ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender in the mold of og because again his agility and athleticism limits him.

People don’t want to admit this but he is looking like the textbook stat padding on a bad team, type player right now and with more talent around him; I.e pecking order, his numbers will drop.

[djsunyc]

the path to barnes being an impact offensive player is through the post

[Boogie!]

Remember when FVV and Thad was getting at Barnes to get him to work harder, and we all turned on them?

We owe Thad and especially FVV an apology. I lowkey miss his pecking order... make the young fellas hungry and take the ball/your position. Watching him mentor the young players in Houston, and watching their coaching staff/vets hold their young guys accountable is making me sad/jealous.

I wouldn’t go that far and that being said the fact that fvv was still ahead of anyone in the offensive pecking order was a problem. So I’m not gonna sit here and say fvv deserved to be ahead, because he wasn’t a very good offensive player himself, but in theory if we had better offensive players around Barnes, then yes he would be relegated to the same role he had when both fvv and siakam were here and as you can see it was more of a support piece but definitely not franchise material.

[Nebuchadnezzar]

Also....would've had to include OG.

No I do t think they would have had to include OG, the package they got was less value than Scottie. Good point about Yak, but imagine we would have got him anyways given we gave up a first rounder.

At the very least they'd have to match salaries. So you were never getting KD for Scotty straight up. Even after adding OG at the time....you'd also have to throw in a bench piece or 2 to match salaries.

But the trade was ALWAYS Barnes plus OG. It was only wishful thinking raptor fans who weren't including OG in the trade.

Fred, Pascal and KD would be a decent team....but not a serious contender much less a probable chip team.

Nope, Zach Lowe talked about a package of Barnes + salary filler. This package would have been Barnes, GTJ, Thad, and Birch.

[Tacoma]

Derozan was the same player for 4 years with little improvements until it just kind of clicked. Not to say that Scottie will do the same, but we kind of need to wait a bit longer. Ingram is now our best player imo so at least we wont have to watch Scottie shoot air balls over the backboard to win the game anymore.

You can’t use DeRozan to project Barnes, they having different approaches. DeRozan has elite work ethic who intensely worked to improve his game vs. Barnes more lackadaisical approach. If Barnes had DeRozan’s work ethic, he’d be a better player today.

[Johnston]

Keep in mind we are playing to develop, not playing to win. I'm sure a lot of the guys are working on stuff that isn't their bread and butter to expand their game for when that time comes ....at least I hope that's what's happening lol.

[PushDaRock]

Derozan was the same player for 4 years with little improvements until it just kind of clicked. Not to say that Scottie will do the same, but we kind of need to wait a bit longer. Ingram is now our best player imo so at least we wont have to watch Scottie shoot air balls over the backboard to win the game anymore.

You can’t use DeRozan to project Barnes, they having different approaches. DeRozan has elite work ethic who intensely worked to improve his game vs. Barnes more lackadaisical approach. If Barnes had DeRozan’s work ethic, he’d be a better player today.

As much as DeRozan has improved since his early years in the league, he's still probably the worst playoff performer in NBA history. Career 50.2 TS% over 63 games, negative on court and on/off per 100 every playoff season and a career -8.4 in on court per 100 and a whopping -11.0 in on/off per 100. While you want all your players to work hard, there's also only so much that be done over the certain limitations they have.

[PushDaRock]

Keep in mind we are playing to develop, not playing to win. I'm sure a lot of the guys are working on stuff that isn't their bread and butter to expand their game for when that time comes ....at least I hope that's what's happening lol.

What exactly is his bread and butter in his offensive game? If he did anything at an elite level, we could say ok do more of that and less of what he sucks at, but there's nothing he does at an elite level and that's the problem.

[Indeed]

Hmm the thing is that if you're taking the ball out of his hands more while his TS% could improve back to somewhere between .550-.570 it would affect his AST% greatly and that's where he stuffs the stat sheet mostly on offense.

I knew this could happen with Scottie and warned about it many times which is why I've always been on a "prove it" basis with him. Now that we're nearing the end of the failed wing Scottie experiment, can he successfully revert to forward Scottie, grow his forward skills, get that ORB% way back up and do a lot of dirty work on cuts and putbacks and start to develop what he has always been more naturally good at.

I've always said if he can be a little bit of Shawn Marion, and a little bit of Lamar Odom we got a really good player. A strong #3 on a contender.

I want him to go out there defend, rebound, be a secondary ball handler when the point guard needs relief, and score when there is a mismatch/cuts/off broken plays.

The concern with him in this role is he’s not good off the ball and he’s not an explosive athlete like Marion where he fights for put backs or dunks on people. He has trouble finishing inside and lacks the footwork to navigate in traffic. I keep saying it over and over again when people start talking about 3rd option, but realistically when you take the ball out of his hands what else does he do well that he can play off other people? His strength was supposed to be giving him the ball where he could use his court vision to create for others but as he’s shown he’s limited in that regard too because of a suspect handle, inability to break his man off the dribble or be a legitimate scoring threat off the dribble period.

So like I said last year, he absolutely needs to be a reliable off ball 3 point shooter to be even considered a 3rd option. Which again makes the fact he’s severely regressed on that end despite having the freedom to shoot whenever, very concerning for his future.

Then there’s the defensive aspect. Barnes has shown the ability to be a good team defender and in some capacity anchor the defense, but as a guy with a limited offensive role, he doesn’t even have the ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender in the mold of og because again his agility and athleticism limits him.

People don’t want to admit this but he is looking like the textbook stat padding on a bad team, type player right now and with more talent around him; I.e pecking order, his numbers will drop.

Indeed, he definitely need to shoot the 3s better, which also allows him to attack close out and get to the rim. His spot up seems to be alright, but we probably have more than just average corner 3 spot up shooter.

As for defense, he is definitely overrated here. He is more Siakam level defense (aggressive / bully, forcing turnovers), instead of Anunoby level defense (patient, play the position). As he lacks quickness and high hip (not able to change direction), he would be caught being over aggressive. Neither a switch defender, so he can't be small C and not a shot blocker to contest shots (not Mobley).

I think he is a starting PF, but you don't pay near max (will be paid more than Anunoby with less defense and less 3 point shooting) for this role.

[mdenny]

I've always said if he can be a little bit of Shawn Marion, and a little bit of Lamar Odom we got a really good player. A strong #3 on a contender.

I want him to go out there defend, rebound, be a secondary ball handler when the point guard needs relief, and score when there is a mismatch/cuts/off broken plays.

The concern with him in this role is he’s not good off the ball and he’s not an explosive athlete like Marion where he fights for put backs or dunks on people. He has trouble finishing inside and lacks the footwork to navigate in traffic. I keep saying it over and over again when people start talking about 3rd option, but realistically when you take the ball out of his hands what else does he do well that he can play off other people? His strength was supposed to be giving him the ball where he could use his court vision to create for others but as he’s shown he’s limited in that regard too because of a suspect handle, inability to break his man off the dribble or be a legitimate scoring threat off the dribble period.

So like I said last year, he absolutely needs to be a reliable off ball 3 point shooter to be even considered a 3rd option. Which again makes the fact he’s severely regressed on that end despite having the freedom to shoot whenever, very concerning for his future.

Then there’s the defensive aspect. Barnes has shown the ability to be a good team defender and in some capacity anchor the defense, but as a guy with a limited offensive role, he doesn’t even have the ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender in the mold of og because again his agility and athleticism limits him.

People don’t want to admit this but he is looking like the textbook stat padding on a bad team, type player right now and with more talent around him; I.e pecking order, his numbers will drop.

Indeed, he definitely need to shoot the 3s better, which also allows him to attack close out and get to the rim. His spot up seems to be alright, but we probably have more than just average corner 3 spot up shooter.

As for defense, he is definitely overrated here. He is more Siakam level defense (aggressive / bully, forcing turnovers), instead of Anunoby level defense (patient, play the position). As he lacks quickness and high hip (not able to change direction), he would be caught being over aggressive. Neither a switch defender, so he can't be small C and not a shot blocker to contest shots (not Mobley).

I think he is a starting PF, but you don't pay near max (will be paid more than Anunoby with less defense and less 3 point shooting) for this role.

He's worth more money than OG simply because he can dribble the basketball and make plays.

I've seen Knicks games where they go an entire half without OG bouncing the ball a single time. Scotty takes on WAY more responsibility for the offense. But ppl tens to glorify players who take on no responsible and are relegated to shooting open shots.

[PushDaRock]

The concern with him in this role is he’s not good off the ball and he’s not an explosive athlete like Marion where he fights for put backs or dunks on people. He has trouble finishing inside and lacks the footwork to navigate in traffic. I keep saying it over and over again when people start talking about 3rd option, but realistically when you take the ball out of his hands what else does he do well that he can play off other people? His strength was supposed to be giving him the ball where he could use his court vision to create for others but as he’s shown he’s limited in that regard too because of a suspect handle, inability to break his man off the dribble or be a legitimate scoring threat off the dribble period.

So like I said last year, he absolutely needs to be a reliable off ball 3 point shooter to be even considered a 3rd option. Which again makes the fact he’s severely regressed on that end despite having the freedom to shoot whenever, very concerning for his future.

Then there’s the defensive aspect. Barnes has shown the ability to be a good team defender and in some capacity anchor the defense, but as a guy with a limited offensive role, he doesn’t even have the ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender in the mold of og because again his agility and athleticism limits him.

People don’t want to admit this but he is looking like the textbook stat padding on a bad team, type player right now and with more talent around him; I.e pecking order, his numbers will drop.

Indeed, he definitely need to shoot the 3s better, which also allows him to attack close out and get to the rim. His spot up seems to be alright, but we probably have more than just average corner 3 spot up shooter.

As for defense, he is definitely overrated here. He is more Siakam level defense (aggressive / bully, forcing turnovers), instead of Anunoby level defense (patient, play the position). As he lacks quickness and high hip (not able to change direction), he would be caught being over aggressive. Neither a switch defender, so he can't be small C and not a shot blocker to contest shots (not Mobley).

I think he is a starting PF, but you don't pay near max (will be paid more than Anunoby with less defense and less 3 point shooting) for this role.

He's worth more money than OG simply because he can dribble the basketball and make plays.

I've seen Knicks games where they go an entire half without OG bouncing the ball a single time. Scotty takes on WAY more responsibility for the offense. But ppl tens to glorify players who take on no responsible and are relegated to shooting open shots.

Having more responsibility on offense is only useful when you can do it at a competent level. A 52.3 TS% is not competent, that's bottom 10% in the league. Your team being better offensively when you are off the floor than on it is also not showing competence either.

[TravisScott55]

He'll be much better next year when he has a good scorer around him.

[Thaddy]

If he can't improve his scoring ability a stationary three and passing better would be fine with me. It would inflate the stats of the guys around him like Ingram, Barrett, IQ, and our bench. That would lead to higher overall roster value and we could trade for better pieces around him. That's likely the goal Masai and Bobby have.

At a certain point we might need to give up on building around him and finding an alternative to finding a superstar player in the league. We are currently in the running to do that with Flagg or another high pick, pending we figure out how to tank properly and can put together a 10 game losing streak.

[LoveMyRaps]

He'll be much better next year when he has a good scorer around him.

I really hope so.

He's been pretty disappointing this season.

[LoveMyRaps]

He is miscast right now - his best role was when he was the 4th/5th option on offense like he was when Nurse was still here.

Next year with Brandon Ingram and Quickley healthy and playing he will slot back more naturally into his correct role.

Turns out, Nurse and co were right about him. Hell of a player, just not in a flashy or typical way.

If his best role is as a 4th/5th option then his contract might end up being a massive overpayment.

[Thaddy]

He'll be much better next year when he has a good scorer around him.

I really hope so.

He's been pretty disappointing this season.

The defense is still pretty good and he's obviously versatile. I think shooting just isn't going to happen overnight for him but he could develop a much better ball handling ability. A better handle would help him get to the rim and get more kick outs. If he raises RJ and Ingram's PPG by 2-3 it would make it easier to find better players and bring them here.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I've always said if he can be a little bit of Shawn Marion, and a little bit of Lamar Odom we got a really good player. A strong #3 on a contender.

I want him to go out there defend, rebound, be a secondary ball handler when the point guard needs relief, and score when there is a mismatch/cuts/off broken plays.

The concern with him in this role is he’s not good off the ball and he’s not an explosive athlete like Marion where he fights for put backs or dunks on people. He has trouble finishing inside and lacks the footwork to navigate in traffic. I keep saying it over and over again when people start talking about 3rd option, but realistically when you take the ball out of his hands what else does he do well that he can play off other people? His strength was supposed to be giving him the ball where he could use his court vision to create for others but as he’s shown he’s limited in that regard too because of a suspect handle, inability to break his man off the dribble or be a legitimate scoring threat off the dribble period.

So like I said last year, he absolutely needs to be a reliable off ball 3 point shooter to be even considered a 3rd option. Which again makes the fact he’s severely regressed on that end despite having the freedom to shoot whenever, very concerning for his future.

Then there’s the defensive aspect. Barnes has shown the ability to be a good team defender and in some capacity anchor the defense, but as a guy with a limited offensive role, he doesn’t even have the ability to be a lockdown perimeter defender in the mold of og because again his agility and athleticism limits him.

People don’t want to admit this but he is looking like the textbook stat padding on a bad team, type player right now and with more talent around him; I.e pecking order, his numbers will drop.

Indeed, he definitely need to shoot the 3s better, which also allows him to attack close out and get to the rim. His spot up seems to be alright, but we probably have more than just average corner 3 spot up shooter.

As for defense, he is definitely overrated here. He is more Siakam level defense (aggressive / bully, forcing turnovers), instead of Anunoby level defense (patient, play the position). As he lacks quickness and high hip (not able to change direction), he would be caught being over aggressive. Neither a switch defender, so he can't be small C and not a shot blocker to contest shots (not Mobley).

I think he is a starting PF, but you don't pay near max (will be paid more than Anunoby with less defense and less 3 point shooting) for this role.

Barnes is legitimately very good on D mostly because of his forced turnover and deflection rate while being middle of the pack in terms of contesting shots. There are still ways for him to get better at contesting stuff even if his lateral quickness won't ever propel him to being elite.

I don't think he's overrated but I did hear someone suggest he should already be 1st team all defense before which is out of touch. He definitely could be 2nd/3rd team mainstay going forward.

[mdenny]

Indeed, he definitely need to shoot the 3s better, which also allows him to attack close out and get to the rim. His spot up seems to be alright, but we probably have more than just average corner 3 spot up shooter.

As for defense, he is definitely overrated here. He is more Siakam level defense (aggressive / bully, forcing turnovers), instead of Anunoby level defense (patient, play the position). As he lacks quickness and high hip (not able to change direction), he would be caught being over aggressive. Neither a switch defender, so he can't be small C and not a shot blocker to contest shots (not Mobley).

I think he is a starting PF, but you don't pay near max (will be paid more than Anunoby with less defense and less 3 point shooting) for this role.

He's worth more money than OG simply because he can dribble the basketball and make plays.

I've seen Knicks games where they go an entire half without OG bouncing the ball a single time. Scotty takes on WAY more responsibility for the offense. But ppl tens to glorify players who take on no responsible and are relegated to shooting open shots.

Having more responsibility on offense is only useful when you can do it at a competent level. A 52.3 TS% is not competent, that's bottom 10% in the league. Your team being better offensively when you are off the floor than on it is also not showing competence either.

Here, you've articulated precisely what I've been saying for the past 3 to 4 years. And since efficiency became the most emphasized factor of player evaluation.

There is a huge fallacy that is very common imo. Efficiency is largely a function of player role in the offense. This is why ppl tend to hate on almost every top 40 player in the league who is outside say, the top 10.

You guys are seriously undervalued the players in the 15 to 40 range. And it's ALL because your interpretation of the stats let's guys like OG completely off the hook. When does OG ever take a contested shot at the end of the shot clock? When does he ever create a shot? When does he attempt half court heaves at the end of quarters?

All these things (and more) are burdens for the players who take lead roles in the offense. And that context is left out of the evaluations when you guys singularly look at efficiency numbers.

This way of evaluating players is biased AGAINST the siakams and the Haliburtons. Guys in that 15 to 40 range.