Ochai Agbaji Decision

[Tripod]

I am in the keep Ochai camp because he delivers 2 things we want and need...shooting and defense. And he is a smart cutter.

But we still should be nit overpaying for him. Get a good deal or wait. Let him again prove this year was not a fluke.

[YogurtProducer]

Who said anything about letting him go? They have his rights for 2 more years.
They should keep him, but only at the right price - and I don't believe that's the full MLE, especially not now when they have leverage.

Uhhh the thread in which you replied to?

I'm specifically replying to you

We can afford to give Ochai an MLE level deal

Yes, they can afford it. No, they shouldn't give him the full MLE. That doesn't mean let him go for no reason.

And also, we have him signed this year. He is a free agent after this year.

A restricted free agent, as in they still have his rights. If someone wants to set the market at the MLE for him at that point, then let them do it and match if you want, but why should they pay more on their own accord?

A guy who can start, even if it is as the 5th guy, is more than worth an MLE deal.

The MLE is about $13M. Guys who make about $13M

Grant Williams
Oknkwo
Naz Reid (prob the best value here)
Gafford
Schroder
Isaiah Joe
Herb Jones
Austin Reaves
Toppin
Cole Anthony
Melton
Olynyk
Josh Green
Holmes
Adams
Portis

You don't think Agbaji is in this category? The guys worth more weren't when they signed the deal. And the rest are the same level or worse than Ochai.

Just be mentally prepared to be pay Ochai 13-15 a year.

[brownbobcat]

Uhhh the thread in which you replied to?

I'm specifically replying to you

We can afford to give Ochai an MLE level deal

Yes, they can afford it. No, they shouldn't give him the full MLE. That doesn't mean let him go for no reason.

And also, we have him signed this year. He is a free agent after this year.

A restricted free agent, as in they still have his rights. If someone wants to set the market at the MLE for him at that point, then let them do it and match if you want, but why should they pay more on their own accord?

A guy who can start, even if it is as the 5th guy, is more than worth an MLE deal.

The MLE is about $13M. Guys who make about $13M

Grant Williams
Oknkwo
Naz Reid (prob the best value here)
Gafford
Schroder
Isaiah Joe
Herb Jones
Austin Reaves
Toppin
Cole Anthony
Melton
Olynyk
Josh Green
Holmes
Adams
Portis

You don't think Agbaji is in this category? The guys worth more weren't when they signed the deal. And the rest are the same level or worse than Ochai.

Just be mentally prepared to be pay Ochai 13-15 a year.

Somebody had to start on this team, that doesn't mean you have to pay them big money. Some of those names above were also UFAs, which Agbaji won't be for 2 years.

I highly doubt anyone's going to save the full MLE for a RFA like Agbaji knowing full well Toronto could match and then be left with no one to spend it on. For that reason, I think the FO should play hardball for once on a non-core player. Do I think that will happen? No, because that is not how this FO goes about things. They like to spend right to the line and then make bad trades to get under it if needed*.

Guys on Agbaji's tier that make less than MLE (not even counting 1-yr guys like Beasley, GTJ)
Okor
Gabe Vincent
Caleb Martin
Hield
Aaron Wiggins
Derrick Jones Jr.
Royce O'Neale
McBride
Conley
NAW
Pritchard
Marshall
Nesmith
Alvarado
Dunn
Anderson


*Kidding. Relax, no need to take the bait on that.

[YogurtProducer]

I'm specifically replying to you


Yes, they can afford it. No, they shouldn't give him the full MLE. That doesn't mean let him go for no reason.


A restricted free agent, as in they still have his rights. If someone wants to set the market at the MLE for him at that point, then let them do it and match if you want, but why should they pay more on their own accord?

A guy who can start, even if it is as the 5th guy, is more than worth an MLE deal.

The MLE is about $13M. Guys who make about $13M

Grant Williams
Oknkwo
Naz Reid (prob the best value here)
Gafford
Schroder
Isaiah Joe
Herb Jones
Austin Reaves
Toppin
Cole Anthony
Melton
Olynyk
Josh Green
Holmes
Adams
Portis

You don't think Agbaji is in this category? The guys worth more weren't when they signed the deal. And the rest are the same level or worse than Ochai.

Just be mentally prepared to be pay Ochai 13-15 a year.

Somebody had to start on this team, that doesn't mean you have to pay them big money. Some of those names above were also UFAs, which Agbaji won't be for 2 years.

I highly doubt anyone's going to save the full MLE for a RFA like Agbaji knowing full well Toronto could match and then be left with no one to spend it on. For that reason, I think the FO should play hardball for once on a non-core player. Do I think that will happen? No, because that is not how this FO goes about things. They like to spend right to the line and then make bad trades to get under it if needed*.

Guys on Agbaji's tier that make less than MLE (not even counting 1-yr guys like Beasley, GTJ)
Okor
Gabe Vincent
Caleb Martin
Hield
Aaron Wiggins
Derrick Jones Jr.
Royce O'Neale
McBride
Conley
NAW
Pritchard
Marshall
Nesmith
Alvarado
Dunn
Anderson


*Kidding. Relax, no need to take the bait on that.

Most of your list is guys who got the MLE anyways (or damn close), guys who are worse than Agbaji, older vets who don't get the "youth" premium, or dudes who broke out AFTER signing their deal and are a perfect example as to how locking guys up early can pay off. A guy like Pritchard or Nesmith if they hit the market today would get absolutely paid.

Okoro is actually a really good comp as to what an extension looks like in terms of dollars and production. The guy essentially got the MLE (3/33 or 3/38, I see conflicting figures). Not sure why you used him as that doesn't help your argument at all

But either way, you have proven our point that Agabji is gonna get about $13M per year give or take a million or two either way. He is absolutely on the tier of pretty much every player both you and I have posted.

[brownbobcat]

Most of your list is guys who got the MLE anyways (or damn close), guys who are worse than Agbaji, older vets who don't get the "youth" premium, or dudes who broke out AFTER signing their deal and are a perfect example as to how locking guys up early can pay off. A guy like Pritchard or Nesmith if they hit the market today would get absolutely paid.

Uhh, Agbaji will be 26 by the time he actually gets his money, which is the same age or higher than 10/16 guys on that list.
16/16 guys on that list are on Agbaji's tier or were when they got paid, if not higher.

As for the benefits of locking a guy up early - yeah, that's the whole goal. Use leverage at your disposal to get a deal under the MLE. I can't even think of the last bench-level RFA that got offered more than the MLE by another team - doesn't happen.

Okoro is actually a really good comp as to what an extension looks like in terms of dollars and production. The guy essentially got the MLE (3/33 or 3/38, I see conflicting figures). Not sure why you used him as that doesn't help your argument at all

But either way, you have proven our point that Agabji is gonna get about $13M per year give or take a million or two either way. He is absolutely on the tier of pretty much every player both you and I have posted.

It's only "essentially" the MLE if you don't know math. Okoro got a 3yr deal starting at 7.24% of cap, the full MLE is 9.12%. He's a great example of a FO sticking to their guns and not bidding against themselves for a bench guy just because they drafted him high in the lottery aka Pat Williams.

[dagger]

His market is already set, just look at what Okoro got.

Okoro was a poor performer in the playoffs again... He's a good regular season value but a contender overpay.

[dagger]

His market is already set, just look at what Okoro got.

Okoro was a poor performer in the playoffs again... He's a good regular season value but a contender overpay.

As for Ochai, let's see who we draft. Drafting another 2-3 would necessitate trading someone. Then look around for the best value offer during the summer, it could be for any of our 2-3 types other than Ingram.

If we draft a 4-5, just sitting on all the 2-3s we have until their play next season clarifies who to keep and who to let go becomes an option.

[ConSarnit]

Yah Okoro's a great comp. Aaron Neismith on the Pacers got that contract too, so I think that's right around the market for a guy of Ochai's archetype. Can't see it getting anywhere close to 4/60

Cap will have gone up 20% from when they were FA though so AAV should be 13-14 now if they are the comp

Cap is up, but the Apron seems like it’s putting downward pressure on all non-superstar salaries. Gonna be interesting to see what guys like Ziaire Williams & Quentin Grimes get on their rookie extensions this year

Okoro and Nesmith both basically got $1.5m under the MLE at the time of signing.

$1.5m under the MLE for Agabji is going to be $14m per year. If he has another solid shooting season he’s going to get close to 4/60m.

[ConSarnit]

His market is already set, just look at what Okoro got.

Okoro was a poor performer in the playoffs again... He's a good regular season value but a contender overpay.

As for Ochai, let's see who we draft. Drafting another 2-3 would necessitate trading someone. Then look around for the best value offer during the summer, it could be for any of our 2-3 types other than Ingram.

If we draft a 4-5, just sitting on all the 2-3s we have until their play next season clarifies who to keep and who to let go becomes an option.

If we draft another wing something has to give.

Bench guys:

Agbaji
Dick
Walter
#9

All of these guys deserve minutes and none of them can play PG (maybe Walter?) so someone is getting squeezed if we draft another wing. Battle could deserve minutes too.

If we draft a big we can probably make it work but add another wing and we’re looking at diminishing returns imo.

[YogurtProducer]

Most of your list is guys who got the MLE anyways (or damn close), guys who are worse than Agbaji, older vets who don't get the "youth" premium, or dudes who broke out AFTER signing their deal and are a perfect example as to how locking guys up early can pay off. A guy like Pritchard or Nesmith if they hit the market today would get absolutely paid.

Uhh, Agbaji will be 26 by the time he actually gets his money, which is the same age or higher than 10/16 guys on that list.
16/16 guys on that list are on Agbaji's tier or were when they got paid, if not higher.

As for the benefits of locking a guy up early - yeah, that's the whole goal. Use leverage at your disposal to get a deal under the MLE. I can't even think of the last bench-level RFA that got offered more than the MLE by another team - doesn't happen.

Okoro is actually a really good comp as to what an extension looks like in terms of dollars and production. The guy essentially got the MLE (3/33 or 3/38, I see conflicting figures). Not sure why you used him as that doesn't help your argument at all

But either way, you have proven our point that Agabji is gonna get about $13M per year give or take a million or two either way. He is absolutely on the tier of pretty much every player both you and I have posted.

It's only "essentially" the MLE if you don't know math. Okoro got a 3yr deal starting at 7.24% of cap, the full MLE is 9.12%. He's a great example of a FO sticking to their guns and not bidding against themselves for a bench guy just because they drafted him high in the lottery aka Pat Williams.

lol, splitting hairs over less than 2% when that’s within the range that was suggested to begin with is amazing.

[Scase]

He's a great example of a FO sticking to their guns and not bidding against themselves for a bench guy

Masai hurt itself in its confusion.

[brownbobcat]

lol, splitting hairs over less than 2% when that’s within the range that was suggested to begin with is amazing.

Man, you're arguing with yourself and bringing in UFAs and misstating the facts on who's older or better.

Okoro got 2 percentage points (or 20%) less than MLE from a team who spent a top-5 pick on him.

If forced to by another team's offer, Toronto should match up to the full MLE for Agbaji.

However, they ought to play hardball with him and possibly get 20-30% lower than the MLE.

That's been my contention the entire time.

[brownbobcat]

He's a great example of a FO sticking to their guns and not bidding against themselves for a bench guy

Masai hurt itself in its confusion.

On the plus side, he learned from the GTJ situation. I think. I hope to God the rumours aren't true that they wanted to give him $15+ M AAV. Barf.

[Psubs]

Please don't spend $10+ million on him. His stock is high.

How high of a 1st pick do you think we could get for him. Keep flipping. Trade him for a 1st pick to draft Rasheer Fleming. Then use $6-10 million to sign Luke Kornet.

[Godaddycurse]

Please don't spend $10+ million on him. His stock is high.

How high of a 1st pick do you think we could get for him. Keep flipping. Trade him for a 1st pick to draft Rasheer Fleming. Then use $6-10 million to sign Luke Kornet.

5th start who is a pending RFAs typically dont get much. late 1st early 2nd at best.

[Scase]

He's a great example of a FO sticking to their guns and not bidding against themselves for a bench guy

Masai hurt itself in its confusion.

On the plus side, he learned from the GTJ situation. I think. I hope to God the rumours aren't true that they wanted to give him $15+ M AAV. Barf.

I don't think he has, his career has been filled with bidding against himself, and BI is arguably the most recent instance. Ain't no way anyone was giving him that money in the open market.

[Pointgod]

Cap will have gone up 20% from when they were FA though so AAV should be 13-14 now if they are the comp

Cap is up, but the Apron seems like it’s putting downward pressure on all non-superstar salaries. Gonna be interesting to see what guys like Ziaire Williams & Quentin Grimes get on their rookie extensions this year

Okoro and Nesmith both basically got $1.5m under the MLE at the time of signing.

$1.5m under the MLE for Agabji is going to be $14m per year. If he has another solid shooting season he’s going to get close to 4/60m.

That’s Max Struss money. Don’t hate it but if RJ is starting where do the minutes come from?

[TerryTate]

Personally, I would try and trade Dick or Walter and pick and try to move up? Isn't Agbagi on a smaller contract than both Dick and Walter?
But we open a spot and "might marginally save on contracts"

I don't know if this draft is deep, so I don't know if it's even worth moving up. Also, a few possible big trade targets this summer.

[Psubs]

Personally, I would try and trade Dick or Walter and pick and try to move up? Isn't Agbagi on a smaller contract than both Dick and Walter?
But we open a spot and "might marginally save on contracts"

I don't know if this draft is deep, so I don't know if it's even worth moving up. Also, a few possible big trade targets this summer.

Walter gets #19 pick money. Also he's shown potential.

[Grew]

Sell high on Ochai