Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)

[MiamiSPX]

There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

We want them to be as bad as possible. In all likelihood they will have a max ~5.1% chance at keeping the pick. There's no way they end up below the Jazz.

I'd take 95% chance ( and more likely 99% chance) if it meant moving up to the end of the lottery.

That would be dope when I thought we'd have a low 20's pick after the trade.

Siakam for two late lottery picks and a former late lottery pick (Ochai) isn't that bad.

Plus not paying him the max

That's the best part about it IMO.

[Tha Cynic]

I can’t get with people who are calling Hali or IND “frauds”….not that I ever thought they were true contenders. But Hali is CLEARLY playing through injury to try and qualify for a super max.

When he was/is healthy he’s easily one of the best PGs in the league and I’d absolutely kill to have a dude like him on this roster. Not sure how anyone could possibly not realize by his limited playing time that clearly something isn’t right with him:

I don't think anyone said Haliburton isn't a great young player. His numbers are basically similar to his career averages right now and he did regress since Jan. He's of course one of the top young guards in the league.

I personally think Indiana is built more like the Hawks that went to the conference finals a few years ago (team that can get by some teams if they're hot from 3), but I don't take them as legit contenders. I think Haliburton is more of a second option and Siakam a 3rd option on a legit contender. But that's a personal take that combo guards like Haliburton are not built to have enough gravity to change outcome of playoff series as best player, the way overwhelming bigger forwards do like a Kawhi Leonard, Lebron James, Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Jimmy Butler when he gets more aggressive, etc. Everyone is chasing the Warriors model even though they have been the exception.

[Parataxis]

There are 9 games ahead of the 11th place team Nets. There's virtually no chance they will finish 11th. At worst they will be 8th where they are now and have 2 shots in the Play-In to make the playoffs. If they lose twice, the don't make the playoffs and most likely their pick would be 14th or 13th which only have a 1-3% chance of getting into top 3.

https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

We want them to be as bad as possible. In all likelihood they will have a max ~5.1% chance at keeping the pick. There's no way they end up below the Jazz.

I'd take 95% chance ( and more likely 99% chance) if it meant moving up to the end of the lottery.

That would be dope when I thought we'd have a low 20's pick after the trade.

Siakam for two late lottery picks and a former late lottery pick (Ochai) isn't that bad.

Well of course. The only time that's happened under the new lottery odds is 2019 (first year of these odds) when Atlanta had the 11th worst record and jumped to the #4 pick. 2.8% odds. Of course, that would be amazing for us since the Indy pick is top 3 protected.

Would be absolutely hilarious if the lottery puts the Raptors in the top-3, and the Pacers get that 4th pick.

[Statistician MK]

I'm not sure it's enough for Indiana to be in the worst 14 teams to be considered a lottery pick.
The rules say: "The teams eligible for the Draft Lottery are the 14 teams that missed out on the NBA Playoffs."

The way I understand this, that means Indiana has to be in 'the worst 7 in the Eastern Conference', not 'the worst 14 in the NBA'... And it doesn't matter if the Lakers, Golden State, Dallas and Sacramento are better than Indiana...

I'm not sure I'm right, but if I am, then Indiana could be 17th worst in the NBA and still have that pick be a lottery pick... Also, Indiana could be 13th worst in NBA and still that pick to not be a lottery pick.

Does anyone have a good idea of how this works exactly?

[WuTang_CMB]

I'm not sure it's enough for Indiana to be in the worst 14 teams to be considered a lottery pick.
The rules say: "The teams eligible for the Draft Lottery are the 14 teams that missed out on the NBA Playoffs."

The way I understand this, that means Indiana has to be in 'the worst 7 in the Eastern Conference', not 'the worst 14 in the NBA'... And it doesn't matter if the Lakers, Golden State, Dallas and Sacramento are better than Indiana...

I'm not sure I'm right, but if I am, then Indiana could be 17th worst in the NBA and still have that pick be a lottery pick... Also, Indiana could be 13th worst in NBA and still that pick to not be a lottery pick.

Does anyone have a good idea of how this works exactly?

it all changed due to the play in tournament

If indiana loses in the play in, they are in the lottery. If they win and get 7 or 8 seed or secure a top 6 seed, they are out of the lottery.

[Statistician MK]

it all changed due to the play in tournament

If indiana loses in the play in, they are in the lottery. If they win and get 7 or 8 seed or secure a top 6 seed, they are out of the lottery.

That's exactly how I understand it...
If so, then it doesn't matter if the Lakers and Golden State are ranked better or worse than Indiana.

[WuTang_CMB]

it all changed due to the play in tournament

If indiana loses in the play in, they are in the lottery. If they win and get 7 or 8 seed or secure a top 6 seed, they are out of the lottery.

That's exactly how I understand it...
If so, then it doesn't matter if the Lakers and Golden State are ranked better or worse than Indiana.

We will all have to wait for final positions after the play in tourney and any tie breakers. Record still matters for all the losers in the play in. If Indy, Lakers, GS all lose in play in, the worse record gets a higher slot. Just keep cheering for Indy losses and hope for the best

[Statistician MK]

Record still matters for all the losers in the play in...

Yeah, I know it.
When I said it doesn't matter if the Lakers and Golden State will be better or worse than Indiana, I was only referring to the dilemma of whether the Indiana pick would even be a lottery pick. It doesn't depend on the Lakers and Golden State, but only on the teams in the East.

[billy_hoyle]

Record still matters for all the losers in the play in...

Yeah, I know it.
When I said it doesn't matter if the Lakers and Golden State will be better or worse than Indiana, I was only referring to the dilemma of whether the Indiana pick would even be a lottery pick. It doesn't depend on the Lakers and Golden State, but only on the teams in the East.

Correct. You seem to have it figured out.

[RoteSchroder]

Pacers up 74-70 against Dallas at half time

both teams agreed before the game not to play defense

[Coco Costanza]

Pascal has like six points, how are the Mavs losing?

[LoveMyRaps]

Mavs are so unreliable.

Fool's gold team.

[Syd-TK3]

Dallas plays zero defense and that says alot considering the pacers don't either

[Los_29]

Dallas is such a weird team. Just got steamrolled on their home floor. Two days after losing at home to a depleted Sixers team.

[MiamiSPX]

Mavs are so unreliable.

Fool's gold team.

Most of their fans want Kidd gone.

[WuTang_CMB]

Stupid mavs

#16 indy pick
TIED #31 det

[YogurtProducer]

I can’t get with people who are calling Hali or IND “frauds”….not that I ever thought they were true contenders. But Hali is CLEARLY playing through injury to try and qualify for a super max.

When he was/is healthy he’s easily one of the best PGs in the league and I’d absolutely kill to have a dude like him on this roster. Not sure how anyone could possibly not realize by his limited playing time that clearly something isn’t right with him:

I don't think anyone said Haliburton isn't a great young player. His numbers are basically similar to his career averages right now and he did regress since Jan. He's of course one of the top young guards in the league.

I personally think Indiana is built more like the Hawks that went to the conference finals a few years ago (team that can get by some teams if they're hot from 3), but I don't take them as legit contenders. I think Haliburton is more of a second option and Siakam a 3rd option on a legit contender. But that's a personal take that combo guards like Haliburton are not built to have enough gravity to change outcome of playoff series as best player, the way overwhelming bigger forwards do like a Kawhi Leonard, Lebron James, Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Jimmy Butler when he gets more aggressive, etc. Everyone is chasing the Warriors model even though they have been the exception.

I mean since he got hurt his numbers ARE NOT anything like his career averages.

Career - 17.1/3.7/8.7 60.5TS% (IND Career = 20.1/3.8/10.6 61.9TS%)

Since returning from injury

14.8/3.1/8.7 54.4TS%

From a points + assists standpoint he is giving them 5.3 less ppg, 1.9 less apg, and doing it on 7.5% worse efficiency.

[Tha Cynic]

I can’t get with people who are calling Hali or IND “frauds”….not that I ever thought they were true contenders. But Hali is CLEARLY playing through injury to try and qualify for a super max.

When he was/is healthy he’s easily one of the best PGs in the league and I’d absolutely kill to have a dude like him on this roster. Not sure how anyone could possibly not realize by his limited playing time that clearly something isn’t right with him:

I don't think anyone said Haliburton isn't a great young player. His numbers are basically similar to his career averages right now and he did regress since Jan. He's of course one of the top young guards in the league.

I personally think Indiana is built more like the Hawks that went to the conference finals a few years ago (team that can get by some teams if they're hot from 3), but I don't take them as legit contenders. I think Haliburton is more of a second option and Siakam a 3rd option on a legit contender. But that's a personal take that combo guards like Haliburton are not built to have enough gravity to change outcome of playoff series as best player, the way overwhelming bigger forwards do like a Kawhi Leonard, Lebron James, Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Jimmy Butler when he gets more aggressive, etc. Everyone is chasing the Warriors model even though they have been the exception.

I mean since he got hurt his numbers ARE NOT anything like his career averages.

Career - 17.1/3.7/8.7 60.5TS% (IND Career = 20.1/3.8/10.6 61.9TS%)

Since returning from injury

14.8/3.1/8.7 54.4TS%

From a points + assists standpoint he is giving them 5.3 less ppg, 1.9 less apg, and doing it on 7.5% worse efficiency.

Yeah, I mentioned that he regressed since Jan. But there are also highs and lows in a season and there is also a new player on the team. Part of it is injuries, but we don't know how much right now. His overall season averages now are close to his Indiana career averages. Regardless I have doubts about Indiana as a whole, but they are in a significantly weaker conference.

[YogurtProducer]

I don't think anyone said Haliburton isn't a great young player. His numbers are basically similar to his career averages right now and he did regress since Jan. He's of course one of the top young guards in the league.

I personally think Indiana is built more like the Hawks that went to the conference finals a few years ago (team that can get by some teams if they're hot from 3), but I don't take them as legit contenders. I think Haliburton is more of a second option and Siakam a 3rd option on a legit contender. But that's a personal take that combo guards like Haliburton are not built to have enough gravity to change outcome of playoff series as best player, the way overwhelming bigger forwards do like a Kawhi Leonard, Lebron James, Giannis, Jokic, Doncic, Jimmy Butler when he gets more aggressive, etc. Everyone is chasing the Warriors model even though they have been the exception.

I mean since he got hurt his numbers ARE NOT anything like his career averages.

Career - 17.1/3.7/8.7 60.5TS% (IND Career = 20.1/3.8/10.6 61.9TS%)

Since returning from injury

14.8/3.1/8.7 54.4TS%

From a points + assists standpoint he is giving them 5.3 less ppg, 1.9 less apg, and doing it on 7.5% worse efficiency.

Yeah, I mentioned that he regressed since Jan. But there are also highs and lows in a season and there is also a new player on the team. Part of it is injuries, but we don't know how much right now. His overall season averages now are close to his Indiana career averages. Regardless I have doubts about Indiana as a whole, but they are in a significantly weaker conference.

Either way - people are questioning how Siakam did not make them better when the reason IND was stagnated or regressed is quite clearly due to Haliburton going from averaging 25/13 to start the year and is now at 14/9. Not sure many teams can handle their stud creating close to 20 less PPG

[GoRapstheoriginal]

Cmon Grizz Damn it!