2023 Draft Discussion Part III

Post #661 » by **DG88** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 12:38 pm

Tankathon updated their mock and Bufkin has moved up from 38th to 21st pick. Would not be surprised to see him mocked more in our range going forward.

WuTang_CMB · Post #662 » by **WuTang_CMB** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 12:49 pm

That 3 will have to come a long way before sniffing Bridges comparisons , but still love the upside

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OakleyDokely · Post #663 » by **OakleyDokely** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:04 pm

Mikal Bridges averaged 40% from 3 in college which is 4% more than Rupert averaged from the field this year.

Yallbecrazy · Post #664 » by **Yallbecrazy** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:11 pm

Mark_83 wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:
Mark_83 wrote:Coulibaly easily. I think he'll end up one of the 10 best players from this draft looking back.

I'm the opposite, I don't see anything special from Coulibaly's stats. I see a lot of intriguing upside with Cissoko and someone who is currently much better.

That's probably why you should watch players play.

I'm not a scout, and statistic based models do a lot better than traditional eye test scouting/ media big boards historically. They also have the bonus of being far less time consuming.
Ideally, you would have a hybrid of the two.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #665 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:15 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:Mikal Bridges averaged 40% from 3 in college which is 4% more than Rupert averaged from the field this year.

I think the comparison is probably more physical and style. Rupert has that pull-up game in the midrange and a similar frame. Bridges came into the NBA 4 years older than Rupert. I'll admit that physically Rupert looks like a sleeper to me, and playing on a great team in a really tough pro league is something to consider.

OakleyDokely · Post #666 » by **OakleyDokely** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:16 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:Mikal Bridges averaged 40% from 3 in college which is 4% more than Rupert averaged from the field this year.

I think the comparison is probably more physical and style. Rupert has that pull-up game in the midrange and a similar frame. Bridges came into the NBA 4 years older than Rupert. I'll admit that physically Rupert looks like a sleeper to me, and playing on a great team in a really tough pro league is something to consider.

What makes Bridges so valuable though is his shooting. Rupert has a long way too go to be even a functional distance shooter.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #667 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:20 pm

Yallbecrazy wrote:
Mark_83 wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:

I'm the opposite, I don't see anything special from Coulibaly's stats. I see a lot of intriguing upside with Cissoko and someone who is currently much better.

That's probably why you should watch players play.

I'm not a scout, and statistic based models do a lot better than traditional eye test scouting/ media big boards historically. They also have the bonus of being far less time consuming.
Ideally, you would have a hybrid of the two.

Totally. I get that there are like a 100 worthy prospects for draft consideration every year, but the reality is that only about 15 of them will be anything of note in the NBA (not even talking about stars or starters, just having a decent career). If numbers can help narrow that field into like 30 most likely to succeeds, that's a good thing.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #668 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:28 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:Mikal Bridges averaged 40% from 3 in college which is 4% more than Rupert averaged from the field this year.

I think the comparison is probably more physical and style. Rupert has that pull-up game in the midrange and a similar frame. Bridges came into the NBA 4 years older than Rupert. I'll admit that physically Rupert looks like a sleeper to me, and playing on a great team in a really tough pro league is something to consider.

What makes Bridges so valuable though is his shooting. Rupert has a long way too go to be even a functional distance shooter.

Like I said, his %s at his age are unreliable based on the league he plays in. Bridges at 19 shot under 30% from 3 against much worse competition, for example. LaMelo shot .375 from the field in the NBL the year before he won the ROY.

OakleyDokely · Post #669 » by **OakleyDokely** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:36 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
I think the comparison is probably more physical and style. Rupert has that pull-up game in the midrange and a similar frame. Bridges came into the NBA 4 years older than Rupert. I'll admit that physically Rupert looks like a sleeper to me, and playing on a great team in a really tough pro league is something to consider.

What makes Bridges so valuable though is his shooting. Rupert has a long way too go to be even a functional distance shooter.

Like I said, his %s at his age are unreliable based on the league he plays in. Bridges at 19 shot under 30% from 3 against much worse competition, for example. LaMelo shot .375 from the field in the NBL the year before he won the ROY.

Lamelo took a lot of 3s though. He averaged 10 a game and hit 37% of them, which is very good and is projectable to the NBA level. Rupert only took 48 3s total.

WuTang_CMB · Post #670 » by **WuTang_CMB** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:38 pm

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Psubs · Post #671 » by **Psubs** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 1:42 pm

WuTang_OG wrote:That 3 will have to come a long way before sniffing Bridges comparisons , but still love the upside

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Better ceiling comp would be Matisse Thybulle.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #672 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 2:57 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
What makes Bridges so valuable though is his shooting. Rupert has a long way too go to be even a functional distance shooter.

Like I said, his %s at his age are unreliable based on the league he plays in. Bridges at 19 shot under 30% from 3 against much worse competition, for example. LaMelo shot .375 from the field in the NBL the year before he won the ROY.

Lamelo took a lot of 3s though. He averaged 10 a game and hit 37% of them, which is very good and is projectable to the NBA level. Rupert only took 48 3s total.

Where are you getting your stats from? Realgm and bball-ref have LaMelo averaging 6.7 3s a game and shot 25% in the NBL. He took 80 total 3PAs. The NBL official website has him at 6.8 3PA and 20% from 3.

OakleyDokely · Post #673 » by **OakleyDokely** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:01 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
Like I said, his %s at his age are unreliable based on the league he plays in. Bridges at 19 shot under 30% from 3 against much worse competition, for example. LaMelo shot .375 from the field in the NBL the year before he won the ROY.

Lamelo took a lot of 3s though. He averaged 10 a game and hit 37% of them, which is very good and is projectable to the NBA level. Rupert only took 48 3s total.

Where are you getting your stats from? Realgm and bball-ref have LaMelo averaging 6.7 3s a game and shot 25% in the NBL. He took 80 total 3PAs. The NBL official website has him at 6.8 3PA and 20% from 3.

yup, you're right. Ball had 6.7 attempts on 25%. Rupert 23% on 2.2 attempts.

https://basketball.eurobasket.com/player/Rayan-Rupert/505363

https://www.basketball-reference.com/international/players/lamelo-ball-1.html

ATLTimekeeper · Post #674 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:06 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
ATLTimekeeper wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
Lamelo took a lot of 3s though. He averaged 10 a game and hit 37% of them, which is very good and is projectable to the NBA level. Rupert only took 48 3s total.

Where are you getting your stats from? Realgm and bball-ref have LaMelo averaging 6.7 3s a game and shot 25% in the NBL. He took 80 total 3PAs. The NBL official website has him at 6.8 3PA and 20% from 3.

yup, you're right. Ball had 6.7 attempts on 25%. Rupert 23% on 2.2 attempts.

https://basketball.eurobasket.com/player/Rayan-Rupert/505363

Not a lot of minutes for either. I'm just way more lenient for that league because I've seen some games and it's competitive and physical. The leagues in France are soft. The Gleague is uncompetitive, sometimes experimental basketball and the Ignite are like a development team within the Gleague. Either way, there's considerable risk in taking a bad stats player from a pro league, so I can see why many would be scared off Rupert and not want to draft him.

BoyzNTheHood · Post #675 » by **BoyzNTheHood** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:09 pm

Psubs wrote:
WuTang_OG wrote:That 3 will have to come a long way before sniffing Bridges comparisons , but still love the upside

Read on Twitter

Better ceiling comp would be Matisse Thybulle.

Speaking of Thybulle, how are people feeling about our Canadian boy Emanuel Miller from TCU. He’s one of the most instinctual defenders I’ve ever seen. He makes 2019 Kawhi-esque defensive plays. He looks like he could be your prototypical 3+D forward in the NBA.

dozo · Post #676 » by **dozo** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:44 pm

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Coulibaly is a highlight reel. Has he declared? If he struggles at the combine he might remove his name.

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The Breakers owner likes Rupert work ethic.

dozo · Post #677 » by **dozo** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:46 pm

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ATLTimekeeper · Post #678 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:53 pm

dozo wrote:

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The Breakers owner likes Rupert work ethic.

I just don't see how people could look at those highlights and see Timothe Luwawu-Cabarot. He has fluidity, athleticism, and a massive frame that looks like can add good weight. His skillset is not polished but he's not working from scratch. He might be worse than TLC if he can never get his shots down, but his upside is much higher.

Syd-TK3 · Post #679 » by **Syd-TK3** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:56 pm

Its very unlikely we take any sorta project player especially now that we don't even have our 2nd still

But Coulibaly is definitely my favorite in that category

REJECTEDBYCLARK · Post #680 » by **REJECTEDBYCLARK** » Wed Apr 5, 2023 3:58 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:Rupert's numbers are awful but he is playing in a more challenging league than Cissoko and Coulibaly. Coulibaly didn't get many minutes playing in the Jeep Elite, which is usually a sign that the prospect isn't close to being ready for the NBA. We're seeing all kinds of buzz that he's a top prospect for next year's draft, but buzz is super cheaply earned in NBA circles.

As for the NBL, we know LeMelo stunk as an 18 year old there, putting up raw counting stats on a weak team. And Giddey's %s stunk as an 18 year old there. But Dieng also stunk there and looks like he's years from being an NBA contributer. RJ Hampton doesn't look like much and he struggled in the NBL as well.

I wouldn't rule out any of them as lotto prospects, but they're probably all going to take years to be winning NBA players and so you have to wonder if the upside is worth it when they all project as role players anyway.

I agree and the youth league Coulibaly played in was garbage as well, but Rupert's shooting woes aren't limited to when he played in New Zealand. Rupert processes things a touch slow for my liking. His handle is good for a guy his size but there are things he has trended as not being able to do well on the court for a while now and I think people are overrating his defensive capability. I dont think his driving and finishing is particularly impressive. The length he possesses will not carry him at the NBA level the way it does now against inferior competition.