Official Scottie All Star Barnes Thread 9

[PushDaRock]

The issue is even in a lesser role, he's never shown the ability to be efficient. He got close to league average last season because he managed to shoot 34% from three which is looking like an anomaly. This isn't a Siakam situation where he was miscast as a #1 option that had already shown he could be a very efficient secondary scorer.

Sure, but... it's worth mentioning that he's taken 2.6+ 3PA/g in every season of his career so far, which contributes to his inefficiency. And he's shooting 4, 4.5% better at the line than he did as a rookie. Also, last year, it wasn't just 3s, it was that he shot nearly 54% from the field inside the arc, more like what he did as a rookie. 54.3% is league-average 2FG% and he was at 53.6% last year, 54.3% as a rook.

He's getting 2.9 FGA/g in transition this year. 3.0 last year, 2.0 in 2023 and 2.6 in 2022.

Cuts? 1.0 in 2025, 1.0 in 2024, 1.6 in 2023 (shot 56.5% on those attempts), and 1.7 in 2022 (shot 59.3%).

Overall shooting volume? 12.6, 13.2, 15.7, 16.7, so you can do the math on proportion there.

FGA/g in the RA? 3.3, 3.6, 4.3 and 3.4 from 2022-2025.

So again, you can see what's going on. In 2022, league average TS% was 56.6. Then 58.1, 58.0 and now 57.4. Barnes was at 55.2% that first year. He was up over 30% of his shots from 3-10 feet, too. If we cut down the 3s and get back to supporting him in transition, cutting, rolling and otherwise attacking in close, there's a reasonable chance we can get him to league average efficiency on lower overall volume.

I think league average efficiency is likely his ceiling and his USG rate probably needs to drop closer to 20% for him to do it. I don't think doing that gives him that much value as a scorer, but it will likely allow him to focus his energy more on the defensive end where I think he has the highest upside left when it comes to his untapped potential.

[tsherkin]

I think league average efficiency is likely his ceiling and his USG rate probably needs to drop closer to 20% for him to do it.

That feels likely to me, yes.

I don't think doing that gives him that much value as a scorer, but it will likely allow him to focus his energy more on the defensive end where I think he has the highest upside left when it comes to his untapped potential.

I agree. So did his pre-draft profile, heh. Scottie never projected as a scorer; our team has asked him to be one because it wanted to move on from what we already had, and we thought we could make something from nothing.

[brownbobcat]

i agree, it's been determined he doesn't really the stuff to be a 1A scorer, and you'll need the "scorer"

however, the good news, is that Scottie's scoring game did improve which will help augment his playmaking, while he's gotten better on D

I think it's much more basic than this. The Raptors don't just need a better "scorer" than Barnes - they need a better player, period. That doesn't mean he's terrible (he's not) or that they need to trade him (they don't), but the focus might have to change to getting upper end talent and not building around him.

His current trajectory is Lamar Odom.

[PushDaRock]

I think league average efficiency is likely his ceiling and his USG rate probably needs to drop closer to 20% for him to do it.

That feels likely to me, yes.

I don't think doing that gives him that much value as a scorer, but it will likely allow him to focus his energy more on the defensive end where I think he has the highest upside left when it comes to his untapped potential.

I agree. So did his pre-draft profile, heh. Scottie never projected as a scorer; our team has asked him to be one because it wanted to move on from what we already had, and we thought we could make something from nothing.

Once the Siakam trade happened and we didn't see an uptick in FGA from him, I thought that was a clear sign he was going to struggle as a volume scorer. This year just confirmed it.

I don't think the BI trade gets made if the organization didn't feel the same way.

[tsherkin]

Once the Siakam trade happened and we didn't see an uptick in FGA from him, I thought that was a clear sign he was going to struggle as a volume scorer. This year just confirmed it.

I don't think the BI trade gets made if the organization didn't feel the same way.

I think it's been clear the entire time, but he's been letting down everyone who has made the "just one more year" type of argument each new season, you know? So it's just been constant affirmation that this isn't how he is best used at all.

[PushDaRock]

i agree, it's been determined he doesn't really the stuff to be a 1A scorer, and you'll need the "scorer"

however, the good news, is that Scottie's scoring game did improve which will help augment his playmaking, while he's gotten better on D

I think it's much more basic than this. The Raptors don't just need a better "scorer" than Barnes - they need a better player, period. That doesn't mean he's terrible (he's not) or that they need to trade him (they don't), but the focus might have to change to getting upper end talent and not building around him.

His current trajectory is Lamar Odom.

yeah he's a piece you build with not around

[tsherkin]

i agree, it's been determined he doesn't really the stuff to be a 1A scorer, and you'll need the "scorer"

however, the good news, is that Scottie's scoring game did improve which will help augment his playmaking, while he's gotten better on D

I think it's much more basic than this. The Raptors don't just need a better "scorer" than Barnes - they need a better player, period. That doesn't mean he's terrible (he's not) or that they need to trade him (they don't), but the focus might have to change to getting upper end talent and not building around him.

His current trajectory is Lamar Odom.

yeah he's a piece you build with not around

"Build with, not around" is a good way to put it. He seems quite useful, but he is not an anchor of anything.

[PushDaRock]

Once the Siakam trade happened and we didn't see an uptick in FGA from him, I thought that was a clear sign he was going to struggle as a volume scorer. This year just confirmed it.

I don't think the BI trade gets made if the organization didn't feel the same way.

I think it's been clear the entire time, but he's been letting down everyone who has made the "just one more year" type of argument each new season, you know? So it's just been constant affirmation that this isn't how he is best used at all.

Well I mean his 13 game run in December last season did give us all some hope that he could be something more

[tsherkin]

Well I mean his 13 game run in December last season did give us all some hope that he could be something more

I mean, I was reasonably skeptical. He has a month or two where he can shoot the 3 every season to date. It was highly out of character. For a second, it looked interesting, for sure, but it was a doubtful thing the whole time.

[TorontoBarneys]

Once the Siakam trade happened and we didn't see an uptick in FGA from him, I thought that was a clear sign he was going to struggle as a volume scorer. This year just confirmed it.

I don't think the BI trade gets made if the organization didn't feel the same way.

I think it's been clear the entire time, but he's been letting down everyone who has made the "just one more year" type of argument each new season, you know? So it's just been constant affirmation that this isn't how he is best used at all.

Well I mean his 13 game run in December last season did give us all some hope that he could be something more

Last season leading up to the ASG he just looked so good. I was very high on him then.

After that, he regressed and then basically added nothing last offseason. It's a real shame.

[tsherkin]

After that, he regressed and then basically added nothing last offseason. It's a real shame.

So that isn't true. We're seeing some visible differences in his ball-handling and his mid-range/short game which are at least encouraging. But he's been pilfering shots at the rim to take 3s and those middies, which isn't ideal, for obvious reasons, and he's been HORRENDOUS from 3.

[brownbobcat]

I think it's much more basic than this. The Raptors don't just need a better "scorer" than Barnes - they need a better player, period. That doesn't mean he's terrible (he's not) or that they need to trade him (they don't), but the focus might have to change to getting upper end talent and not building around him.

His current trajectory is Lamar Odom.

yeah he's a piece you build with not around

"Build with, not around" is a good way to put it. He seems quite useful, but he is not an anchor of anything.

And that's not some super deep insight or anything, but there's no real answer from anti-tankers on how the current path leads to a better player.

"Trades"

If it were that easy, why couldn't they get one when they had vastly superior trade pieces in Siakam and OG? There's a lot riding on this draft and if they don't draft a real star, things could get even more dismal quickly.

[tsherkin]

And that's not some super deep insight or anything, but there's no real answer from anti-tankers on how the current path leads to a better player.

"Trades"

If it were that easy, why couldn't they get one when they had vastly superior trade pieces in Siakam and OG?

Being crap year after year is only so useful. Selling off assets creates a recurrent situation where you have nothing except maybe picks, and they are of variable value. At some point, you do need to start building forward, hoping guys get good enough to generate value so you can start progressively flipping pieces around, is the general notion.

There isn't really any proof that protracted tanking is that valuable. It's entirely luck-dependent, and even harder now with the flattened lottery odds. We need to be looking to accumulate cheap assets with later picks and signings and stuff and then trying to package to upgrade. Yeah, a big star is often drafted, but you can't just keep chasing that forever. There are only so many guys of that caliber ever drafted, let alone inside any given period of n years.

[PushDaRock]

yeah he's a piece you build with not around

"Build with, not around" is a good way to put it. He seems quite useful, but he is not an anchor of anything.

And that's not some super deep insight or anything, but there's no real answer from anti-tankers on how the current path leads to a better player.

"Trades"

If it were that easy, why couldn't they get one when they had vastly superior trade pieces in Siakam and OG? There's a lot riding on this draft and if they don't draft a real star, things could get even more dismal quickly.

There are no guarantees regardless of what path you take but our current one at least has multiple options. We can add an elite talent if the right trade comes along, we can sell off assets presumably if we end up as a decent team, those pieces should be worth more and we can still draft and develop while this is going on because we have all our draft picks.

If you're all out tanking, presumably selling off every asset and only keeping rookie deal players and bad contracts, you only have one way to get better and that's drafting a superstar.

Getting an elite talent is binary, you either get one or you don't. The justification for whichever path is taken is dependent on if you get one or not. If this team makes the play-in, loses and then wins the lottery, it'll be looked at like a brilliant move to not bottom out and still get Flagg. If you bottom out and get unlucky in the lotto and don't have the opportunity to draft a superstar, your franchise is looked at as a joke.

[Dexjackson]

I think it's been clear the entire time, but he's been letting down everyone who has made the "just one more year" type of argument each new season, you know? So it's just been constant affirmation that this isn't how he is best used at all.

Well I mean his 13 game run in December last season did give us all some hope that he could be something more

Last season leading up to the ASG he just looked so good. I was very high on him then.

After that, he regressed and then basically added nothing last offseason. It's a real shame.

Offensively I would agree that he hasn't improved much compared to last year. Defensively he's way more locked in this year though. Taking tougher assignments and overall being way more engaged than in years past.

[canada_dry]

On his draft day i compared him to a bigger stronger Iguodala.( back when we thought his perimeter defense was his most nba ready skill. Remember that? Lol)

Obviously not a perfect comp as scottie isn't the pure athletic iggy was or the athlete i thought he was coming out the draft, but i think it still applies.

Im still not out on him becoming a pretty good scoring option one day though. Its possible. The burgeoning mid range. The bully ball. If he gets Improved handles. It might peak as a 22 ppg type guy off a power game with really good defense and playmaking. Maybe not the best player on the team but a very good #2 on very good teams. A #3 on great teams. Etc. Its not the Giannis and kawhi comps people were insane for putting out there but its still a damn good player.

Not all hope is lost. I do smile to myself that most people are seeing the Iguodala comp all these years later though.

[HangTime]

What we need is a lead defender. Which allows Scottie to play defence like he did before OG was traded last year.
That allows him to use more energy for his offence.

With who we have, right now, if all healthy, and if we're trying to use "fitting lineups."

I would start
Scottie/Ja'Kobe/Ochai/Ingram/Jakob

Ochai gets the lead defencive guard-wing assignment, Ja'kobe gets the secondary guard assignment, while Scottie gets to roam and be another back line communicator with Jakob.

The offense revolves around Scottie, Ingram, and Ja'kobe with this first unit.

RJ, IQ and Gradey battle it out, maybe try for CO-6th man of the year, just go all out vs 2nd units.

[anotherhomer]

After that, he regressed and then basically added nothing last offseason. It's a real shame.

So that isn't true. We're seeing some visible differences in his ball-handling and his mid-range/short game which are at least encouraging. But he's been pilfering shots at the rim to take 3s and those middies, which isn't ideal, for obvious reasons, and he's been HORRENDOUS from 3.

i get tsherkin has been pumping the brakes on the scottie hype
but at least he agrees with my position that scottie took small steps in his ball-handling and mid-range

[anotherhomer]

Once the Siakam trade happened and we didn't see an uptick in FGA from him, I thought that was a clear sign he was going to struggle as a volume scorer. This year just confirmed it.

I don't think the BI trade gets made if the organization didn't feel the same way.

I think it's been clear the entire time, but he's been letting down everyone who has made the "just one more year" type of argument each new season, you know? So it's just been constant affirmation that this isn't how he is best used at all.

i think even Ujiri had said in the conference..."will scottie be that guy, and etc" last year

I think raps were willing to explore the possibility scottie would become that go to guy but i don't think Raps was entirely banking on the idea that Scottie would be that volume scorer.

they were looking to the lottery but then find the scorer in a buy-low trade

[anotherhomer]

We're going to end up shifting the narrative from all star to all defensive team. But that won't warrant his contract. This is going to be a disaster. The saving grace might be making him a 4th option and putting him in a role similar to Mobley. He really needs to shoot better from distance. That might mean sticking with stationary threes and playing the transition game. If he can get 16/8/8 next year on 60 TS% while we win 50 games it would be a success.

His FT rate hasn't improved since his rookie year, the TS% has hovered at below league average, and his turnover rate is another disaster. A good defensive player with a mid range game doesn't win a whole lot in the NBA. We need to be generating more threes and 4 on 3 advantages.

The future of this team is really riding on the pick this year. If we get a top 3 pick and develop our selection into an all star it might elevate the games of our other pieces over time to have a higher trade value. We will need to make winning trades for bargain contracts to make up for overpays we've given Ingram, Barnes, and IQ.

i'm not against the contract...it's something you have to do