tsherkin wrote:I can't say that really means anything to me. He's been straight ass from mid-range to date, so confidence taking a shot doesn't really mean too much to me. His long two is nothing to write home about. Granted, he takes around 1 or 1.5 of those shots per game at each distance, so it isn't a huge sample, but he isn't really a shooter, so I'm not holding my breath. And that doesn't suddenly give him elite burst either. Or a handle, which is not something you frequently see develop significantly once a player hits the league.
Due to his .446 shooting last year and .388 in that area in his career I think he has promise. This one is up to the reader if you believe he could have fixed his shooting form making his mid range better.
I don't deny the prospect: Barnes with a competent game beyond 10 feet would be a large difference, and he certainly has the body to take a hit. He hasn't really shown us anything at all from short mid-range ever. He shot under 30% from 10-16 feet in each of the two previous seasons. His short game, that's something else, that's actually his best asset as a scorer so far, coupled with his ability to get to the rim. His 3 has promise. Didn't look to start this season, but he's had less than half a dozen games and he had a hand injury and all that, so I'm willing to wait that one out to see if Nov/Dec was a mirage or if he's actually improved from 3. That'll help regardless of his mid-range game if he has.
I also need to see a larger sample size, but thus far he's taking more short mid range shots (10-16 feet is the same as at the rim).
Also looking at the statistics he's taking more unassisted 3s (.750 assisted) so we'll see how that shakes out.
His 2P assisted percentage is at .333, so it looks like he's trying to create more of his own offense (in this regard, I trust him as hois career 2P assisted rate is at .455)
Speaking of his short game he's taking a whopping 41.9% of his shots from 3-10 feet at a 51.6% clip.
As for Dec in general, it's really crazy (23.8 PPG/ 17.4 shots/ 52.2FG%/ 40.2%/ 76.5% FT/ 9.9 Rbs/ 6.1 Ast/ 1.6 Blk/ 1.3 Stl/ 2.8 TO)
All NBA stuff right there. Then the trades happened.
I guess it's technically possible, I just don't care to consider the possibility. He doesn't fit the profile of the guys who are. The skill-based guys hit the league with more tools than he did and the athleticism-based guys have a lot more than he does. It's very clear that he isn't going to turn himself into Luka, right? And he doesn't really have the explosive athleticism to make up enough of the gap, IMHO.
If he ever averages 24 PPG (58TS%) 10 Rbs/ 8 Asts/ 1.5 Blk/ 1.3 Stl where do you put him? It's this type of theoretical production all over you have to consider.
As a rude start, the specifics being quite debatable, let's look at the top 10 guys in the league by O-EPM last year. By no means a definitive list, but a decent start. In descending order:
Jokic, Brunson, Embiid, Doncic, Steph, Haliburton, Giannis, SGA, Lillard, and Booker, with Kyrie and Tatum just past that.
Then you have other border guys like Maxey, Markkanen, LaMelo Ball, Lebron, Donovan Mitchell, Harden, PG, DeAaron Fox and so forth.
As you step through that list, you find a whole crapload of guys who are unattainably-superior shooters and a whole pile of superior athleticism and handles.
Most guys who hit the league as bleh scorers don't make the leap to elite. Some of them get to decent, right? Kemba Walker was a fairly poor scorer for about 4 years and then figured out how to hit 3s... but he was also an 83.7% FT shooter by his 3rd season and eventually figured out how to sort his long two. He was slithery and mobile and able to generate shots at the rim, plus he had a competent handle. He was just small and didn't have a lot of power but he had the mobility, which is more of a premium than a thick body without burst. Most of those guys are considerably more dynamic ball handlers. IN fact, basically all of them except for Giannis and Embiid, both of whom have massive physical advantages over Scottie.
So as you start looking at that athleticism/skill ratio, where does Barnes fall? How much would he have to develop his skills to overcome not having ATG physical tools? How frequently do we see those specific types of development later in a player's career?
Barnes is in the Kawhi mold in terms of tools. In terms of cracking the top 10, it's a long shot, and there's 0 shot in breaking the top 5.
Jokic
Luka
Giannis
Wemby
Are the top 4 of the foreseeable future.
Lebron, KD, Steph are on their way out.
Embiid is ???
SGA, Tatum, Paolo, JA, (possibly Sengun) are on the fringes
As you say, it's technically possible and nothing is written in stone, but so much needs to come up Millhouse for him to reach that level of player that I'm not buying into the notion. IMHO, we will have better luck extracting maximum value from him by focusing on him in another role. He has value, and not a trivial amount of it either, but hoping that he's going to suddenly improve his handle and his shot to an extent sufficient to overcome his lack of burst is a tall order. He basically needs what SGA and Booker have, with a little less, because again, as you noted, he DOES have the frame to create a decent amount of space if he can get near his spot.
But mid-range scoring is a highly skill-intensive process. And Dirk he is not, so my skepticism remains.
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Honestly, we have nothing to lose this season to see what he can do as the main option. Moving him to another role is a bad idea imo. Even if he struggles.
I mean how far off is he right now from a 22PPG (57%TS)/ 9 RBD/ 7 AST/ 1 STL/ 1 BLK player?
That's not top 10 or close, but he indeed could put up overall production like that this year.
Again, Barnes is very unique as a player. His value in not only scoring but passing, rebounding, blks, stls is what's intriguing.
His handle and shot can be improved (to what extent, no idea), but sadly his burst will stay the same.
Also don't take this seriously, but when I tried to find the closest statistical comparison to what Barnes put up last year at close to the same age (22years old), the closest I got was Jokic (obviously Jokic is much more efficient as a scorer at, because he's Jokic).
PPG/ Rbs/ Ast/ Blk/ Stl were very similar.
No, don't extrapolate too much from that lol.
