sidsid wrote:pingpongrac wrote:sidsid wrote:
They're playing against the best in the west, not the JV conference with the stellar duos of KAT/Brunson and Mitchell/Garland (when not injured) on defense.
Contested Toppin/Nesmith 3s and backboard Turner stepbacks may be a trend, but I'll bet against it.
The Pacers have a lot of good shooters and they've done this all year; Nesmith shot 43% during the season, Turner shot 40%, Haliburton shot 39%, Siakam shot 39%, Toppin shot 37%, etc. Nembhard was at just 29% on the season, but he hit 35% of his 3FGA in his first two seasons while hitting 48% during the playoffs last year. I'd bet on the Pacers having at least another game like tonight where they hit 15+ threes at ~45%.
What I have serious doubts of happening again is Indiana turning the ball over 25 times while OKC turned the ball over just 7 times. That is some serious variance that the Pacers had to overcome with clutch defence, playmaking and shooting.
You seem to be surprised about the number 1 team in the league in a bunch of defensive stats, including said turnover generation, doing a very good job at those things with tons of prep time, especially against a team that loves passing a lot. And that they did it at a much better rate than the various regular season mix of dregs of the league and coasting contenders or the assortment of eastern conference pretenders who get exposed every year.
But not surprised that the same juggernaut defense is getting scored on a bunch of contested wing 3s from their worst shooters at a way higher rate. That this is more repeatable.
What is this "way higher rate" that you're speaking about? McConnell hit a wide open three above the break and Bryant hit an open three from the corner. Aside from Toppin, every other Pacer shot pretty much right in line with their average. And I'm not sure how Toppin going 5/8 can be considered high variance when OKC had a similar caliber shooter in Dort finish 5/9. Furthermore, this wasn't a one-off night for the Pacers; Indiana hit 16 threes on 44% in G2 against the Bucks and 18 threes on 46% in G4 then they hit 19 threes on 53% in G1 against the Cavs and 15 threes on 43% in both G4 and G5 before hitting 17 threes on 52% in the decisive G6 against the Knicks. Can you really call it variance when the Pacers have done something damn near identical in ~40% of their playoff games thus far?
The 25 turnovers that OKC forced tonight was their highest mark of the playoffs thus far while the 7 turnovers they committed was their lowest mark. If that's not enough, the 7 turnovers that Indiana forced was their lowest mark of the playoffs thus far while the 25 turnovers they committed was their highest mark. In other words, OKC forced the most turnovers of their playoff run and had their most efficient ball control game while the Pacers forced the least turnovers of their playoff run and had their least efficient ball control game – yet they still managed to win. If you want to talk about variance, that is the most extreme example of variance one could possibly find.
OKC had almost 20 extra possessions tonight and they couldn’t get the job done. They are still the heavy favourites and should win in 6, but maybe it’s time to reevaluate your assessment of the Pacers. Their defensive intensity has ramped way up in the playoffs and their offence has been elite while they’ve arguably been the 2nd best team in the league in the past 5 months. They deserve to be here and it’s not just because of some three-point variance.