hankscorpioLA wrote:CantStopTheRock wrote:hankscorpioLA wrote:
We are well past the point where that would make much of a difference. Once you get to the point of mass community spread, individual contact tracing doesn't really matter. You do that to prevent community spread from happening.
Sorry, I meant to write next biggest problem right now (after how people social distance)
I am not sure how we are past that point that testing and tracking would not make much of a difference. Sure it is less effective now than early on, but that doesn't mean it is still not very important
We have 5672 confirmed cases of 37 million people, or 0.00015% of Canadians. Community spread accounts for 2/3 of cases, that is not mass community spread. Early detection and isolation and following up on contacts is very important. When you have community spread you do not have a good grasp of where the virus is or how to monitor it, treat it, isolate it. Essentially every Country is racing to improve testing for this very reason
What I am saying is that when you do testing early on, the goal is to stop the virus from spreading in the community. That's why you test and trace. You are trying to stop the genie from getting out of the bottle.
Once you miss that opportunity, testing becomes kind of irrelevant until you can do it on a massive scale. That's what we are building up to.
But in the interim, the value of testing is diminished, especially when you have stay at home orders anyway.
I agree with most of what you said but I do not think testing now is irrelevant. I agree it is less important than before community spread and is not important as mass testing, but it is still an effective measure to take against the virus spreading.
I realize it is a topic of debate in the medical field though, some Doctors, including the chief of staff at Humber River said “That window is largely closed”
But there is probably just as much (if not more) saying how crucial it still is
The WHO director released a statement last week “We have a simple message for all countries: test, test, test. Test every suspected case”
Infectious-diseases physician in Vancouver said we need should be testing more people, including those with mild respiratory symptoms who haven’t travelled outside of canada or come into contact with a positive coved-19 case.
“If we let this continue to spread into the community and we’re not going after these individuals with aggressive testing, we’re not going to have a handle on it”
Which I agree with. We 100% need to build up to mass testing, but testing in the meantime is not irrelevant. It still helps weed out potential branches of the virus. It is not like everyone is “staying at home”, practicing social distancing and practicing good hygiene. If that was the case I would agree with you, there would be no point. It is to help mitigate the potential spread of the virus where social distancing fails. So we do not have overcrowded hospitals filled with covid patients because we were waiting to mass test.
Japan is getting flack because of this, although they are supposedly doing well in targeted testing, they are only using 1/6th of there capacity to test. Their director of the institute for population health has been critical of this because they are predicting clusters may be popping up where social distancing is failing.
South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan have been doing well and many attribute it to their strict social distancing protocol and aggressive testing (but also how/who they are testing). A two prong approach.
I saw this in the Globe and Mail and I thought it was a good quote
“Each undetected case is like a smouldering ember left in a dry forest. Each undetected carrier has the potential to spark an outbreak of new coronavirus cases – in nursing homes, at curling clubs, in workplaces.“