2023 Draft Discussion Part 4

[DreamTeam09]

So what do we see outta Bufkin, like what type of ceiling are we talking?

He's definitely quick enough, athletic enough, smart enough, shot looks good.
I guess Fox is the ceiling for lefty quick twitchy guards that can shoot.
The next tier would be DLo ?

He'll have a longer career than cam Payne for the simple fact he's coming in as the better shooter, so if that's his floor, that's still a productive backup PG.

Nor is it really fair to expect star at 13. And I'm aware of some of the stars picked recently at 13.

My bar for draft picks is to atleast solidify yourself as an NBA player and then go from there.

Like I didn't automatically expect some big leap from Scottie this year just because he won rookie of the year last year. I still think he showed improvement even if the numbers don't bare out.

[raincityraptors]

The more I watch the style of play of these teams in the playoffs the more I can envision Kobe Bufkin becoming a hell of an NBA player. Every day I like this kid more and more. When I think about what he could be in 3-4 years when he's been able to work on his craft and when his body fills out a bit more I really like what that looks like.

He’s my #1 choice right now.

I really hope Orlando and OKC don’t pick him.

I said the same thing earlier on this thread.

I think he has a high floor, does everything pretty well. He just needs to fill out and the shot needs to come along.

He will pass and defend well enough with experience.

His downhill finishing is badly needed on this team and I believe in his shot.

He would play really well off of Scottie or Jak.

[DreamTeam09]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

[DreamTeam09]

The more I watch the style of play of these teams in the playoffs the more I can envision Kobe Bufkin becoming a hell of an NBA player. Every day I like this kid more and more. When I think about what he could be in 3-4 years when he's been able to work on his craft and when his body fills out a bit more I really like what that looks like.

He’s my #1 choice right now.

I really hope Orlando and OKC don’t pick him.

I said the same thing earlier on this thread.

I think he has a high floor, does everything pretty well. He just needs to fill out and the shot needs to come along.

He will pass and defend well enough with experience.

His downhill finishing is badly needed on this team and I believe in his shot.

He would play really well off of Scottie or Jak.

His handles aren't the best, he can't get to wherever he wants to on the court yet. His lowlights have him picking up his dribble a lot far away from the basket

[ATLTimekeeper]

He’s my #1 choice right now.

I really hope Orlando and OKC don’t pick him.

I said the same thing earlier on this thread.

I think he has a high floor, does everything pretty well. He just needs to fill out and the shot needs to come along.

He will pass and defend well enough with experience.

His downhill finishing is badly needed on this team and I believe in his shot.

He would play really well off of Scottie or Jak.

His handles aren't the best, he can't get to wherever he wants to on the court yet. His lowlights have him picking up his dribble a lot far away from the basket

Maybe a better defending Jordan Clarkson? Or maybe floor is Immanuel Quickley?

There were less than 30 NBA players under 6"4 and 200 lbs that played more than 20 minutes in the NBA. And about 20 around 30 minutes or greater, and of those 20 almost all of them were all-stars. This is relative to roughly 100 above that height weight threshold that played around 30 minutes, and 200 who played over 20 minutes.

The level you have to be at to be that small (Bufkin currently estimated at 6"4, 175) is pretty high. The ones that played over 30 minutes were almost all superstars in college, where Bufkin was just really good in the latter half of his sophomore NCAA season.

[OakleyDokely]

I just can't see the Raps taking anyone small unless that player is head and shoulders above the rest. Even back in the Barnes draft, the guard they were reportedly interested in was 6'8 Giddey.

Teams like TOR, OKC, ORL have a type and they stick to that type most of the time. If the Raps take a guard, he will probably be big.

[Kevin Willis]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I said the same thing earlier on this thread.

I think he has a high floor, does everything pretty well. He just needs to fill out and the shot needs to come along.

He will pass and defend well enough with experience.

His downhill finishing is badly needed on this team and I believe in his shot.

He would play really well off of Scottie or Jak.

His handles aren't the best, he can't get to wherever he wants to on the court yet. His lowlights have him picking up his dribble a lot far away from the basket

Maybe a better defending Jordan Clarkson? Or maybe floor is Immanuel Quickley?

There were less than 30 NBA players under 6"4 and 200 lbs that played more than 20 minutes in the NBA. And about 20 around 30 minutes or greater, and of those 20 almost all of them were all-stars. This is relative to roughly 100 above that height weight threshold that played around 30 minutes, and 200 who played over 20 minutes.

The level you have to be at to be that small (Bufkin currently estimated at 6"4, 175) is pretty high. The ones that played over 30 minutes were almost all superstars in college, where Bufkin was just really good in the latter half of his sophomore NCAA season.

Posting how there are 100 NBA players above that height and weight threshold is irrelevant since every single SF-PF-C is above that threshold. The only numbers having any significance (if they exist) will be ones which show the guards over 6'4 200 lbs that play 20+ or 30+ minutes a game and how such guards vastly constitute a greater percentage of NBA guards getting big minutes and vastly constitute the all-star caliber guards among the entire guard pool.

If you bump that number to 6'5 you have even less of a point and quite frankly I could care less about 1 inch of height on a player.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I just can't see the Raps taking anyone small unless that player is head and shoulders above the rest. Even back in the Barnes draft, the guard they were reportedly interested in was 6'8 Giddey.

Teams like TOR, OKC, ORL have a type and they stick to that type most of the time. If the Raps take a guard, he will probably be big.

I can't see them taking anyone long/tall unless that player is head and shoulders above the rest. Masai surely has seen the errors in his ways by now. Assuming we are targeting a guard, unless that long/tall player can move and operate exactly like a guard should be able to on both sides of the ball, it would be an immense mistake taking such a player.

[ArthurVandelay]

I'm only able boxscore watching but Coulibaly with another solid game. 10 points, 7 rebs. 3-5 fg, 1-1 3pt, 3-3ft. I worry 13 won't be high enough to get him.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Posting how there are 100 NBA players above that height and weight threshold is irrelevant since every single SF-PF-C is above that threshold. The only numbers having any significance (if they exist) will be ones which show the guards over 6'4 200 lbs that play 20+ or 30+ minutes a game and how such guards vastly constitute a greater percentage of NBA guards getting big minutes and vastly constitute the all-star caliber guards among the entire guard pool.

If you bump that number to 6'5 you have even less of a point and quite frankly I could care less about 1 inch of height on a player.

It's relevant because it shows how good you have to be to be a high minute guard in this league. Guards above 6"4 (no weight included) are about 50 around 30 minutes a night, and 100 around 20+ minutes. One inch doesn't mean much when discussing random prospects, but you can work backwards to look at how good you have to be to make it as a smaller player. If Bufkin were dominant, I would have high confidence in him as a prospect. He had half a season of being good. Less confident.

[ArthurVandelay]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

No doubt Dick has slide potential. Could be this year's AJ Griffin.

[Psubs]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

Is Dick a 6'8 Korver that's more athletic and handles? Giddey that can shoot the lights out with a little less passing? Dick seems to make the right basketball plays. I think he'd already be the 6th man on the team, fighting to start at SG.

Dick has Stls > TOs!!!

Is there a swingman in a tough conference, that has more dunks than Dick?

[Jadoogar]

I'm guessing one of these guys is a Raptor

Kobe
Bilal
Hawkins
Sidy
Maybe(Miller and George)

Is this a top 7-8 draft, my excitement level falls off around there. I'll be stamped regardless

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

Is Dick a 6'8 Korver that's more athletic and handles? Giddey that can shoot the lights out with a little less passing? Dick seems to make the right basketball plays. I think he'd already be the 6th man on the team, fighting to start at SG.

I would love for Gradey to fall to us. I think his comps are guys like Ingles, Bojan Bogdonavic. Smart secondary play makers who can space the floor and move without the ball. I think his defensive struggles are overstated. He's not going to be a lockdown defender but he's got size to not be a complete liability.

[Psubs]

Possibly Dick. A team might not like his D or fall in love with someone else. It's possible Dick lands in our lap. It will all depend on draft order and team need. Dick is definitely what this team needs if available and can play SG.

Is Dick a 6'8 Korver that's more athletic and handles? Giddey that can shoot the lights out with a little less passing? Dick seems to make the right basketball plays. I think he'd already be the 6th man on the team, fighting to start at SG.

I would love for Gradey to fall to us. I think his comps are guys like Ingles, Bojan Bogdonavic. Smart secondary play makers who can space the floor and move without the ball. I think his defensive struggles are overstated. He's not going to be a lockdown defender but he's got size to not be a complete liability.

Gordon Hayward was drafted #9 overall he's top 5 in the draft. I think Dick is more athletic, better shooter and a better defender than Hayward. I wouldn't be mad at all with him at #13. His elite skill is an ultra quick release that won't be blocked like Reggie Miller and he's at least average at all other aspects.

People want a 3-level scorer and Dick has great touch at the bucket for layups and takes contact well. Jalen Wilson too 16 shots per game and averaged 20pts. Without him, Dick would be putting up 20ppg as a freshman no problem.

Bane is so strong and with muscle memory shoots 3's so well but Dick just looks like a natural shooter like Bird, Ray Allen, Reggie. He's able to fake an relocate and shoot like it's the original shot, he has a transition 3 already.

Watch on YouTube

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Posting how there are 100 NBA players above that height and weight threshold is irrelevant since every single SF-PF-C is above that threshold. The only numbers having any significance (if they exist) will be ones which show the guards over 6'4 200 lbs that play 20+ or 30+ minutes a game and how such guards vastly constitute a greater percentage of NBA guards getting big minutes and vastly constitute the all-star caliber guards among the entire guard pool.

If you bump that number to 6'5 you have even less of a point and quite frankly I could care less about 1 inch of height on a player.

It's relevant because it shows how good you have to be to be a high minute guard in this league. Guards above 6"4 (no weight included) are about 50 around 30 minutes a night, and 100 around 20+ minutes. One inch doesn't mean much when discussing random prospects, but you can work backwards to look at how good you have to be to make it as a smaller player. If Bufkin were dominant, I would have high confidence in him as a prospect. He had half a season of being good. Less confident.

If Bufkin were dominant he'd be a lock to go top 10. It's a weak draft with very few dominant prospects that you can take and feel 100% sure about. There is moderate risk involved in just about everyone who is going after Taylor Hendricks and Cason Wallace from the vantage point of a talent evaluator.

[OakleyDokely]

I just can't see the Raps taking anyone small unless that player is head and shoulders above the rest. Even back in the Barnes draft, the guard they were reportedly interested in was 6'8 Giddey.

Teams like TOR, OKC, ORL have a type and they stick to that type most of the time. If the Raps take a guard, he will probably be big.

I can't see them taking anyone long/tall unless that player is head and shoulders above the rest. Masai surely has seen the errors in his ways by now. Assuming we are targeting a guard, unless that long/tall player can move and operate exactly like a guard should be able to on both sides of the ball, it would be an immense mistake taking such a player.

I don't think they will target any specific position. They will take the guy who they think will be most the impactful, even if it takes 2-3 years.

Targeting a specific position based on current team need is a good way to miss out on better talent.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Posting how there are 100 NBA players above that height and weight threshold is irrelevant since every single SF-PF-C is above that threshold. The only numbers having any significance (if they exist) will be ones which show the guards over 6'4 200 lbs that play 20+ or 30+ minutes a game and how such guards vastly constitute a greater percentage of NBA guards getting big minutes and vastly constitute the all-star caliber guards among the entire guard pool.

If you bump that number to 6'5 you have even less of a point and quite frankly I could care less about 1 inch of height on a player.

It's relevant because it shows how good you have to be to be a high minute guard in this league. Guards above 6"4 (no weight included) are about 50 around 30 minutes a night, and 100 around 20+ minutes. One inch doesn't mean much when discussing random prospects, but you can work backwards to look at how good you have to be to make it as a smaller player. If Bufkin were dominant, I would have high confidence in him as a prospect. He had half a season of being good. Less confident.

What are guards 6'4 and below in terms of 30+ mins a night and 20+ mins a night?
And guards 6'5 and below in terms of 30+ mins a night and 20+ mins a night?

[Jadoogar]

Is Dick a 6'8 Korver that's more athletic and handles? Giddey that can shoot the lights out with a little less passing? Dick seems to make the right basketball plays. I think he'd already be the 6th man on the team, fighting to start at SG.

I would love for Gradey to fall to us. I think his comps are guys like Ingles, Bojan Bogdonavic. Smart secondary play makers who can space the floor and move without the ball. I think his defensive struggles are overstated. He's not going to be a lockdown defender but he's got size to not be a complete liability.

Gordon Hayward was drafted #9 overall he's top 5 in the draft. I think Dick is more athletic, better shooter and a better defender than Hayward. I wouldn't be mad at all with him at #13. His elite skill is an ultra quick release that won't be blocked like Reggie Miller and he's at least average at all other aspects.

I tend to look at the lower range outcomes for these draft prospects because it's unlikely someone reaches their 90th percentile outcome. Gordon Hayward was probably a better shot creator in his prime.
Even getting a good starter at #13 is a great outcome. Too often teams try to swing on someone's ceiling rather than their floor.

[TronoWrappers]

Have we discussed Andre Jackson Jr. yet? He stood out to me as a Raptorsy prospect during the NCAA tournament. Similar playstyle as Dalano.

Watch on YouTube