Raptors NBA Draft Thread: Austin Rivers (NOH)

Dr Positivity · Post #81 » by **Dr Positivity** » Tue May 15, 2012 7:51 pm

I'm really not sold on his talent level.

Physical tools? He's quick but mediocore in other areas. Does not have the strength or vertical ability at the rim.

Skill level? He can handle the ball decently and has shooting potential (though his current shooting ability is overrated - mid 60s FT% yikes!)

Basketball IQ? Bad

I'm just not seeing what makes him a special talent or really in a different league talent wise than a guy like Jordan Crawford. There have been a lot of moderately athletic but not physicall dynamic guards over the years who like to dribble and put up shots. Even if he had a good attitude I wouldn't be sold, I just don't see the talent level being top 10 caliber. The difference between him and eg. Westbrook even disregarding the latter's drive and learning curve, comes down to Westbrook being one of the 10-15 most talented players in the league. I'm not sure Rivers will be a top 100 talent in the league.

As for his high school hype it can change quickly for players. Another combo guard Josh Selby was recently ranked #1 out of high school. OJ Mayo, Marvin Williams, Demar Derozan were not as talented as expected because it turned out physically they were B talents instead of A ones (I'd argue that's exactly why Rivers and Barnes are not the prospects they were in high school). I think history suggests to make talent judgments on NCAA analysis and not high school reptuation.

To me it'd be like taking Marquis Teague top 10, Teague has some physical and skill talent to be a top 7 rotation player but it's aiming pretty low and at a high risk IMO

Post #82 » by **Double Helix** » Tue May 15, 2012 11:58 pm

Dr Mufasa wrote:I'm really not sold on his talent level.

Physical tools? He's quick but mediocore in other areas. Does not have the strength or vertical ability at the rim.

Skill level? He can handle the ball decently and has shooting potential (though his current shooting ability is overrated - mid 60s FT% yikes!)

Basketball IQ? Bad

I'm just not seeing what makes him a special talent or really in a different league talent wise than a guy like Jordan Crawford. There have been a lot of moderately athletic but not physicall dynamic guards over the years who like to dribble and put up shots. Even if he had a good attitude I wouldn't be sold, I just don't see the talent level being top 10 caliber. The difference between him and eg. Westbrook even disregarding the latter's drive and learning curve, comes down to Westbrook being one of the 10-15 most talented players in the league. I'm not sure Rivers will be a top 100 talent in the league.

As for his high school hype it can change quickly for players. Another combo guard Josh Selby was recently ranked #1 out of high school. OJ Mayo, Marvin Williams, Demar Derozan were not as talented as expected because it turned out physically they were B talents instead of A ones (I'd argue that's exactly why Rivers and Barnes are not the prospects they were in high school). I think history suggests to make talent judgments on NCAA analysis and not high school reptuation.

To me it'd be like taking Marquis Teague top 10, Teague has some physical and skill talent to be a top 7 rotation player but it's aiming pretty low and at a high risk IMO

Some great points in there, Dr. M. I hear you on a lot of them. I will say that Westbrook's FT% the year he entered the league was also only 71% and it's now up to the mid 80s.

I completely disagree with you on your assessment of his talent level. This kid has special talent. What he needs is more polish and more time in the gym knocking down some of the tough shots he takes. He gets to the rim at will. He takes guys left and right. He has hesitation moves, crossovers, stepbacks... He's pretty much got every dribble move that the elite guards in the league have and a nice first step. He knows how to get his shot off a variety of ways... floaters, layups in traffic between defenders... He can shoot off the dribble at different speeds and different areas of the court. Skill is not an issue with Rivers at all. He has elite skill... I think arguably top 40 "skill." What he needs is maturity, improved efficiency and better passing.

Regarding Selby... he's much longer than Selby was. Selby was a 6'2 SG. Rivers may end up being 6'4.5 with shoes on with a 6'7 wingspan. And just when people were counting out Avery Bradley he's shown this year that he has a place in this league, too. Bradley closed out the season brilliantly, showing that with opportunity he can get to the net at will... and Rivers may have more overall star potential than him (Bradley's the better defender though). Bradley was in a similar situation except he was even smaller. After a ton of HS hype he showed during his single year at Texas that he wasn't a pure PG. His numbers in many ways were actually worse than what Rivers put up at Duke and his measurements put him at 6'3 with shoes. He dropped and yet here he is on a very good Celtics team and down the stretch he was scoring 20ppg on efficient numbers. Some guys just become better NBA guys than what they showed before. Brandon Jennings looks like a completely different player in the NBA than what he shows in Europe. The job of our scouts is to determine if Rivers might be similar.

The Chucker · Post #83 » by **The Chucker** » Wed May 16, 2012 12:23 am

Double Helix wrote:I completely disagree with you on your assessment of his talent level. This kid has special talent. What he needs is more polish and more time in the gym knocking down some of the tough shots he takes. He gets to the rim at will. He takes guys left and right. He has hesitation moves, crossovers, stepbacks... He's pretty much got every dribble move that the elite guards in the league have and a nice first step. He knows how to get his shot off a variety of ways... floaters, layups in traffic between defenders... He can shoot off the dribble at different speeds and different areas of the court. Skill is not an issue with Rivers at all. He has elite skill... I think arguably top 40 "skill." What he needs is maturity, improved efficiency and better passing.

bro rivers cannot go left. erryone knos this.

Post #84 » by **Double Helix** » Wed May 16, 2012 12:54 am

The Chucker wrote:
Double Helix wrote:I completely disagree with you on your assessment of his talent level. This kid has special talent. What he needs is more polish and more time in the gym knocking down some of the tough shots he takes. He gets to the rim at will. He takes guys left and right. He has hesitation moves, crossovers, stepbacks... He's pretty much got every dribble move that the elite guards in the league have and a nice first step. He knows how to get his shot off a variety of ways... floaters, layups in traffic between defenders... He can shoot off the dribble at different speeds and different areas of the court. Skill is not an issue with Rivers at all. He has elite skill... I think arguably top 40 "skill." What he needs is maturity, improved efficiency and better passing.

bro rivers cannot go left. erryone knos this.

Says who? Swishscout and Bleacherreport citing swishscout? Swishscout is a couple friends recording satelite TV, building mixes from no more than 5-8 weekend games and then trying to act like they've seen everything there is to see on these guys. They're less reptuable than Draftexprss or nbadraft.net; they're just bringing video mixes to table. It's absolute BS that Rivers can't go left. Duke was on TV a lot and I saw him go left plenty.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbkj3eSYAb8[/youtube]

The times here when he goes right he's accepting a screen. I've watched a ton of footage on Rivers and while he certainly prefers his right... any attempt to make it sound as though he's left hand is captain hook is an overstatement.

That said... I agree more with Dr. M's assessment of the numbers. I wish they were better. It would be easier to get excited. I don't think BC will take the bait everybody so relax... I'm just interested in seeing how he does in the next level now.

I think Jeremy Lamb will be the pick.

Post #85 » by **Undefeated** » Wed May 16, 2012 12:57 am

Skill level? He can handle the ball decently and has shooting potential (though his current shooting ability is overrated - mid 60s FT% yikes!)

If anything, Austin Rivers' handles are more than decent. That's one area of his game that you can't really call him out on. Thru-the-leg crossover, frontal cross, in-and-out, egg-beater/windmill, behind-the-back. You name it, Rivers got every dribbling moves in the book. The only knock against Rivers is that he looks down on his dribble too much, and that he doesn't go to his left enough. Although he has the ball-handling and first step of a D-Wade, he lacks the ability to play above the rim. All his lay-ups are below the rim finishing underhand.

The Chucker · Post #86 » by **The Chucker** » Wed May 16, 2012 1:05 am

Double Helix wrote:Says who? Swishscout and Bleacherreport citing swishscout? Swishscout is a couple friends recording satelite TV, building mixes from no more than 5-8 weekend games and then trying to act like they've seen everything there is to see on these guys. They're less reptuable than Draftexprss or nbadraft.net; they're just bringing video mixes to table. It's absolute BS that Rivers can't go left. Duke was on TV a lot and I saw him go left plenty.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zbkj3eSYAb8[/youtube]

The times here when he goes right he's accepting a screen. I've watched a ton of footage on Rivers and while he certainly prefers his right... any attempt to make it sound as though he's left hand is captain hook is an overstatement.

That said... I agree more with Dr. M's assessment of the numbers. I wish they were better. It would be easier to get excited. I don't think BC will take the bait everybody so relax... I'm just interested in seeing how he does in the next level now.

I think Jeremy Lamb will be the pick.

look bruh there r other posters who saw rivers play more n they all say the guy cannot go left. i bare saw u in the draft thread contributing so bringing up a clip aint helping making me believe otherwise. no offense u just like dem barnes fanboy tryin hard to pimp up a scrub. only this time it rivers.

S.W.A.N · Post #87 » by **S.W.A.N** » Wed May 16, 2012 1:07 am

I am becoming more comfortable with the idea of Austin Rivers being in the mix for our pick.

His potential is that of a game altering scoring guard (at the 1 or 2 or off the bench) really doesn't matter at this point. He certainly will have some adjusting to do coming into the pro game but his skill set is definitely lotto worthy.

I know he has been working with a trainer since season end so what kinda numbers he shows at combine will be really interesting.

Live Free · Post #88 » by **Live Free** » Wed May 16, 2012 1:09 am

when people see 6'4 combo gaurd its easy as hell to just yell out OJ Mayo, but other than physical specs I disagree. As a scorer Mayo is more fluid, spotting up on and off the ball while Rivers is much more explosive than Mayo has ever been. That consistent breakdown ability and top handle puts Rivers in a different category. I see more prime Gilbert Arenas in Rivers than I see OJ Mayo

& His confidence (some like to call cockiness) is not a negative thing at all, he wants to be the best.. if anything had Mayo possessed this fire under the ass attitude he would live up to his potential. The talent is all there for both of them but the skill set and attitude is different with Rivers having the edge IMO

JamesNaismith · Post #89 » by **JamesNaismith** » Wed May 16, 2012 4:14 am

Live Free wrote:when people see 6'4 combo gaurd its easy as hell to just yell out OJ Mayo, but other than physical specs I disagree. As a scorer Mayo is more fluid, spotting up on and off the ball while Rivers is much more explosive than Mayo has ever been. That consistent breakdown ability and top handle puts Rivers in a different category. I see more prime Gilbert Arenas in Rivers than I see OJ Mayo

& His confidence (some like to call cockiness) is not a negative thing at all, he wants to be the best.. if anything had Mayo possessed this fire under the ass attitude he would live up to his potential. The talent is all there for both of them but the skill set and attitude is different with Rivers having the edge IMO

More explosive than Mayo has ever been and better breakdown ability?!?!

LOL

The sad thing is Mayo was arguebly better at everything at the same stage...OJ was throwing it down more often and with more force and had no problems breaking guys down please see below in the HL; go find a Rivers HL from college, find me where he's throwing down two handed slams; he's lucky to get layups -- so no definitely not more explosive. Then his handles lol....Rivers is widely criticized for being predominantly righthanded. You must of completely missed why OJ came in with ridiculous hype like he was the next great SG not just fanboys but some scouts were making him out to be the next Kobe Bryant hence why Memphis traded away Love and most people at the time thought it was a great trade.

OJ Mayo 20.7ppg, 4.5rpg and 3.3apg on 44%FG, 41%3P and 80.3%FT in 36.8mpg
A Rivers 15.4ppg 3.4rpg and 2.1apg on 43%FG, 37%3P and 67%FT in 33.2mpg

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQV69Rt1VXY[/youtube]

I think most people who don't like the comparison to Mayo don't remember what a prospect he was considered but you can see the effect the larger players in the NBA have had. There's nothing Rivers does better and their games are as like as it gets.

**to be clear I'm NOT a Mayo fan either but both these guys are highschool hyped ballhogs that need to accept their roles are great 6th men that can heat up

Live Free · Post #90 » by **Live Free** » Wed May 16, 2012 5:51 am

I should have been more specific with what I meant by explosive.. I was talking as far as first step and blow by's .. neither are ever gonna come down the lane and crown someone in the nba. In my post I also did not wash up Mayo, i'm simply stating their games are not as comparable as most make it out to be.

Mayo and Rivers both score differently, Mayo is more fluid as you seen in the vid you posted.. coming off screens and mid-range whereas you'll find Rivers eating up pick and rolls slicing and dicing 2-3 defenders consistently for floaters or crazy layups if not he's chef'ing up for 3-ball with his crossovers. & Yes Rivers breakdown ability is much more superior than Mayo's you can't deny that. It doesn't mean Mayo can't just saying Rivers is better at it.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hri3JPrYjkA[/youtube]

other than both being able to spot up for jumpers, they're different. I see Gilbert in Rivers more than I see Mayo..check it out

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yDyLD0eQOj4[/youtube]

JamesNaismith · Post #91 » by **JamesNaismith** » Wed May 16, 2012 6:11 am

I think I'll just leave it at agreeing to disagree. I still see alot more resemblence to Mayo but I can tell what similarity you're trying to drive at with the Arenas comparison (and seeing that HL only depresses me what a sad decline it was for Gil). Overall I just really believe he's going to have a very similar impact to 1st year Mayo depending on the team he could average 18-21ppg at the peak of his career not 24+ like Arenas.

On a GOOD team Rivers' ideal role will be 6th man; he's not cut out to be a leader for the reasons I listed before. But on a team talent deprived on the wings (like ours) he will certainly score...combine this with media attention due to being Doc's son and yes he will definitely be getting the (faux) all-star treatment from our fans.

The one thing I will give him although it may not be saying much is that if Lamb and Barnes are off the board by the time we draft (which is VERY likely) then more and more I'm feeling more inclined to draft Sullinger (first) and Rivers than an unknown like Lillard and PJ3 who I'm just fearing more and more is a mediocre bust. I rather have incredible 6th men than deadbeat starters.

**what's kind of scary (at least to me) is with news of wanting to sign Nash and more specifically Lin; I think BC's intention is obviously also garnering more media attention so if those 2 potential signings are any indication than I think Rivers may actually be Colangelo's "great" (marketing) Plan B should Lamb/Barnes not be around

N1QUE24 · Post #92 » by **N1QUE24** » Fri May 18, 2012 1:52 pm

NBADraft.net has us taking Rivers :wink:

XTC · Post #93 » by **XTC** » Fri Jun 8, 2012 11:08 pm

NBADRAFT.net profile: http://nbadraft.net/players/austin-rivers

DraftExpress profile: http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Austin-Rivers-5743/

I think a lot of people are sleeping on this kid, he measured out pretty well and has SG size. I think he has potential to be the best scorer in the draft. I wouldn't mind taking him with our pick at all. We need someone who isn't scared to take over aka an alpha male, and Austin Rivers is just that, plus he's a pretty good basketball player as well.

Throwback24 · Post #94 » by **Throwback24** » Fri Jun 8, 2012 11:12 pm

Hey I don't mean to be an ass but the thread was made

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1176397&start=75

I also like him.

Waylon Mercy · Post #95 » by **Waylon Mercy** » Sat Jun 9, 2012 3:01 am

Hoops Report has us taking him with their updated mock after the Combine

http://thehoopsreport.com/draft.aspx

BillyGM · Post #96 » by **BillyGM** » Sat Jun 9, 2012 9:36 am

I would prefer Lamb.

simmons21 · Post #97 » by **simmons21** » Sat Jun 9, 2012 11:22 am

I'm not going to speculate who or even how many players will turn out to be better pros than Rivers. But one thing i'm certain of is that a young man with this much confidence, skill, who was raised by a great coach and player in Doc Rivers, will not be a bust.

No idea what his ceiling really is but he'll be at very least relevant in this league for years to come. I'd be pleased with BC drafting him because I'd know (barring injury) that we'd come away from this draft with a future asset.

Post #98 » by **Double Helix** » Sat Jun 9, 2012 12:24 pm

The last player that had HS hype and put up so-so numbers as a freshmen was Jrue Holiday. Plenty around here liked the guy. I never fully did. Didn't find him special enough. Didn't think his first step was fast enough. Didn't think he could pass well enough. He's adjusted to the pros nicely though and in hindsight it seems that the early original mock positions he had before the draft (top 13) made sense.

I think Rivers has more talent overall, a better crossover, first step and upside. Seeing him at 6'5 and knowing how good his dad was defensively and is defensively as a coach excites me a little as far as his future is concerned.

Does he have a ton of question marks after a so-so freshmen year? Yes but the intrigue is there and like Jrue Holiday before him... I think you have to draft based on where you think he'll be when he's 23-24, not 19. He has some Monta Ellis to him and at 6'5 if he gains weight like almost all SG prospects do he could be a deadly offensive weapon. And if he puts in the time to learn NBA defence he'll be that much better. He's a student of the game with talent and athleticism. He's a risk but I want to believe. I can get excited about a clean-cut, well-spoken, 6'5 Monta that doesn't mind playing up here. I just want some more reasons to believe. I want some Lillard-like postive news to come out about him and his upside at the 2.

Coming out of this draft with a dynamic 2 guard, even if he's a little undersized, would be an exciting way to continue this rebuild. We wouldn't be doing it because of what he did this past year at Duke. We'd be doing it because of what we hope he'll do as a pro over the next several years.

Post #99 » by **Double Helix** » Sat Jun 9, 2012 1:53 pm

I have bad news and some less bad news for Rivers hopefuls. The kid's standing reach is totally that of a PG or combo guard. He may stand 6'5 and have a 6'7 wingspan but when he's standing on the ground and putting his arms straight up he covers as much vertical ground as a Monta Ellis or JJ Reddick 2 guard or our very own Jerryd Bayless. Yawn, right? That sinking feeling in your stomach is a fair reaction.

However, softening the news somewhat is that the standing reach verticality of any 2 guard isn't a huge part of defending the spot. It absolutely helps contesting shots but SGs jump over standing wingspans to shoot regardless. I'm not convinced that the 1.5 inch standing reach advantage Beal has on him, or the 3 inch reach advantage Young has on him, or the 4.5 inch standing reach advatage Lamb has on him, or even Derozan's 5.5 inch standing reach advantage are going to impact any one shooter from the ground too much. Standing max reach is huge for bigs because down low, on drives to the net, prepping to take charges, and defending post play there's more intimidation necessary and the standing reaches of bigs are sometimes able to block shots without jumping. That rarely happens out on the perimeter.

The longer the better obviously but so long as he can become a ++ offensive weapon to the extent that Monta is and so long as his vert results come out good for rebounds (I suspect his vert will be impressive since his max standing reach isn't and we've all seen him sky before for dunks) , and so long as he can put on muscle then he should be able to carve out a Monta-like niche for himself. Those ARE some significant ifs though so management had better be absolutely sure that his offensive upside is that high.

Presumably, he'll be able to use the 6'7.25 wingspan moreso to defend passing lanes. He's basically a combo guard with NBA combo guard wingspan and a long neck. Not great news obviously and another reminder of why Lamb has been consistently ranked higher and why Rivers has been considered a late lotto pick for weeks now.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #100 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Sat Jun 9, 2012 2:11 pm

Double Helix wrote:The last player that had HS hype and put up so-so numbers as a freshmen was Jrue Holiday. Plenty around here liked the guy. I never fully did. Didn't find him special enough. Didn't think his first step was fast enough. Didn't think he could pass well enough. He's adjusted to the pros nicely though and in hindsight it seems that the early original mock positions he had before the draft (top 13) made sense.

There have been plenty of players since with high school hype that put up so-so numbers. There's no reason to stick to Jrue alone.

Josh Selby RSCI #4
Brandon Knight #5
Derrick Favors #1
Xavier Henry #6
Avery Bradley #5

You can also include OJ Mayo and Brandon Jennings, as other prospects with more "swag" than sense.

The thing with Jrue was that, even though he wasn't putting up terrific numbers, he was considered the best on ball defender in the draft. The thing that he was supposed to be good at, he was really good at. With Rivers, he wasn't a very good scorer.

If still on the Board by our pick what are the chanches we draft him?