Amir Johnson in decline? Look again.

[Rapcity_11]

Actually, he pretty much plays SF exclusively since he's only 6'7".

This is wildly inaccurate. Green plays pretty much only PF (look at the GS lineup data). He's also a tremoundous defender.

To be fair, its not so much that he plays power forward as it is that Golden State starts two small forwards in him and Harrison Barnes.

And I didn't say he wasn't a tremendous defender. But he's not in the same class as Amir. At least not yet.

But all of that is secondary. What I don't get is why someone would pay $15 million to Green but not $9 million to Amir.

Green is good. He may even one day be better than Amir. But he's not $6 million better.

He's actually just a PF who can play SF. He's miles better at PF.

[Young_Buc]

I don't know what the stats say in regards to rebounding, but a lot of what he does defensively is negated by his inability to rebound well. (It's funny because he's got pretty good instincts but bad positioning and JV is the opposite) We haven't had a good rebounder since Evans (although it helps that JJ and Lowry are good for their positions) Bosh isn't a great rebounder and he averaged 11 here by default.

[Tofubeque]

"I don't care what all the stats say, the eye test tells me this player is on the decline because he hasn't dunked on anyone this year and I saw him yawn once"

- RealGM Raptors board

[vini_vidi_vici]

So lets talk Amirs rebounding.

First when hes on the court, the team avgs 51.8 REB%. When hes off 47.8 REB%.
Conversely for all the JV rebounding talk, with him on the court the team avgs 49.8 REB%. When hes off, 49.9 REB%.

Last year 2.9 REBs a game were contested. He had 3.5 uncontested REBs.
This year 2.9 REBs a game were contested. He has 2.6 uncontested REBs.

So really hes only missing the (edit: un)contested ones, anecdotally id like to suggest its because all all the helping D, and the fact hes one of the better bigs at boxing out and holding that position. Combine that with KL (+.5 REB% from last year), DD (+.6 REB% from last year) and TR (+.4 REB% from last year). TR/KL are avg .5 REBs uncontested per game more than last year, you could argue the uncontested looks are being distributed among the teammates.

The rim protection is still under 50FG%.

He guards the best big every night and only allows them to shoot .8 FG% over their avg.

The team ORTG goes down .2 when hes off the court, the DRTG goes up 4.4 when hes off the court too.

The teams NetRTG while hes on the court is +10.1. Highest of the starters. Man I wish we had more screening data like this.

A Positive defender by DRPM/DBPM.

Hes 19th among players who have played >= 20MPG in TS%. Second highest ASTr of the starters.

In some ways I feel like ppl had these unrealistic expectations that Amir was some athletic specimen the likes of Dwight or something. Like every year people want to get rid of this guy, so ive become immune to it.

[DeadHorse]

Those illegal screens yesterday were serious momentum killers but Amir's still doing quite well this year

[hankscorpioLA]

So lets talk Amirs rebounding.

First when hes on the court, the team avgs 51.8 REB%. When hes off 47.8 REB%.
Conversely for all the JV rebounding talk, with him on the court the team avgs 49.8 REB%. When hes off, 49.9 REB%.

Last year 2.9 REBs a game were contested. He had 3.5 uncontested REBs.
This year 2.9 REBs a game were contested. He has 2.6 uncontested REBs.

So really hes only missing the contested ones, anecdotally id like to suggest its because all all the helping D, and the fact hes one of the better bigs at boxing out and holding that position. Combine that with KL (+.5 REB% from last year), DD (+.6 REB% from last year) and TR (+.4 REB% from last year). TR/KL are avg .5 REBs uncontested per game more than last year, you could argue the uncontested looks are being distributed among the teammates.

The rim protection is still under 50FG%.

He guards the best big every night and only allows them to shoot .8 FG% over their avg.

The team ORTG goes down .2 when hes off the court, the DRTG goes up 4.4 when hes off the court too.

The teams NetRTG while hes on the court is +10.1. Highest of the starters. Man I wish we had more screening data like this.

A Positive defender by DRPM/DBPM.

Hes 19th among players who have played >= 20MPG in TS%. Second highest ASTr of the starters.

In some ways I feel like ppl had these unrealistic expectations that Amir was some athletic specimen the likes of Dwight or something. Like every year people want to get rid of this guy, so ive become immune to it.

All of this a thousand times over.

[GreatWhiteStiff]

No one cares about your math nerd stats about blah blah blah the raptors outrebound the other team when amir actually is on the court. Go be quiet and sit in your corner math nerd. I have my eye test abilities to make amazing inferences that let me know who to blame the teams rebounding inefficiencies on. I also know his crap rebounding doesnt make up for his plus defence, so there. I HAVE EYETEST ABILITIES FRIENDO.

[tecumseh18]

Heh, speaking of eye test, has anyone noted that there appears to be a systematic decline in body mass among NBA players, especially noteworthy in the stars? I mention this in the Amir thread because three or four years ago he came to camp really bulked out and able to bang around down low, but he hasn't been like that lately.

Everyone has talked about Lebron this season, but for me it started with Bosh's transition from his 2009-2010 season (the last with the Raptors), to the skinny dude who started the 2010-2011 season with the Heat. Then when Dwight went out with an injury in his last year with the Magic, he seems to have came back with the Lakers a much smaller guy.

A hypothesis pulled out of my butt: basketball recognized it had a PED problem, but addressed it with the union and/or individual players on the down-low rather that take the adversarial approach that baseball took with harsh suspensions etc. Obviously some basketball players have been caught and punished over the years - e,g, Lewis, Turk - but on the whole it's been a very different approach.

So if there is any validity to my argument, then we'll never again see the PED version of Amir that was so impressive a few years ago, even up to last season. But he's still a good player who helps us win. The key question is: is he better suited to be a bench player? And if P-Pat can't replace his defence in the starting line-up alongside Jonas, then what should the Raptors do?

[Kurtz]

NBA stats on team performance when each player is on the floor



Amir top performer from starters.

Aha! And you people thought I was crazy when I called Tyler our team MVP! Yeah, crazy like a FOX.

[Kurtz]

I am sure they have. Many players have to play through pain. Steve Nash has played with back pain for years. Of course it impacted his play. But did it make him a bad player? Not until he was very late in his 30s.

As long as he plays the game and produces, I am not overly concerned. If he was missing significant chunks of time, that would be a different story.

Ooh, Hank, buddy...I was cheering for you in this argument, but invoking Nash's name ill suits your purpose.

Nash had a 10+ year streak through his Dallas-Phoenix days where he averaged around 75 GP per season. People knew he had big time back problems, and you could see it with him lying on his back on the side-lines every game, but hey...he kept going out there, so where's the problem?

Well, here it is. Lakers gave him that big deal...and that was it for his back. Finally done-zo. And every basketball fan in the world looked at it and said: "Well, anyone could see that coming".

Well, anyone could see it coming with Amir too. He's limping every game. Every couple of games he goes to the locker-room with an ankle issue, only to return later. The games he misses are ankle-related. He's not as old as Nash, but he's been playing since he was 19, and he's had a lot of really hard minutes. It's not hard to envision his ankles getting worse rather than better.

Still love you, Amir. Please take 2PAT's 6/18 deal and we can ride off into the sunset together.

[PT416]

I don't get it. Are we supposed to be 32-0? What do u guys want from Amir? 20-10? The man does everything nobody else wants to do.

[Sheldon Cooper]

I am sure they have. Many players have to play through pain. Steve Nash has played with back pain for years. Of course it impacted his play. But did it make him a bad player? Not until he was very late in his 30s.

As long as he plays the game and produces, I am not overly concerned. If he was missing significant chunks of time, that would be a different story.

Ooh, Hank, buddy...I was cheering for you in this argument, but invoking Nash's name ill suits your purpose.

Nash had a 10+ year streak through his Dallas-Phoenix days where he averaged around 75 GP per season. People knew he had big time back problems, and you could see it with him lying on his back on the side-lines every game, but hey...he kept going out there, so where's the problem?

Well, here it is. Lakers gave him that big deal...and that was it for his back. Finally done-zo. And every basketball fan in the world looked at it and said: "Well, anyone could see that coming".

Well, anyone could see it coming with Amir too. He's limping every game. Every couple of games he goes to the locker-room with an ankle issue, only to return later. The games he misses are ankle-related. He's not as old as Nash, but he's been playing since he was 19, and he's had a lot of really hard minutes. It's not hard to envision his ankles getting worse rather than better.

Still love you, Amir. Please take 2PAT's 6/18 deal and we can ride off into the sunset together.

Except Amir is 10 years younger than Nash and is not even remotely close to Nash in total minutes played. So let's not be overly dramatic here, k?

[MVP-]

Heh, speaking of eye test, has anyone noted that there appears to be a systematic decline in body mass among NBA players, especially noteworthy in the stars? I mention this in the Amir thread because three or four years ago he came to camp really bulked out and able to bang around down low, but he hasn't been like that lately.

Everyone has talked about Lebron this season, but for me it started with Bosh's transition from his 2009-2010 season (the last with the Raptors), to the skinny dude who started the 2010-2011 season with the Heat. Then when Dwight went out with an injury in his last year with the Magic, he seems to have came back with the Lakers a much smaller guy.

A hypothesis pulled out of my butt: basketball recognized it had a PED problem, but addressed it with the union and/or individual players on the down-low rather that take the adversarial approach that baseball took with harsh suspensions etc. Obviously some basketball players have been caught and punished over the years - e,g, Lewis, Turk - but on the whole it's been a very different approach.

So if there is any validity to my argument, then we'll never again see the PED version of Amir that was so impressive a few years ago, even up to last season. But he's still a good player who helps us win. The key question is: is he better suited to be a bench player? And if P-Pat can't replace his defence in the starting line-up alongside Jonas, then what should the Raptors do?

tbh, I think once you reach a certain point your body just reaches a point where you have the mythical "old man strength" and you don't need to be that big to be as strong. Maybe Amir and the medical staff decided it was best for his joints to be as light as possible. I mean even for me an average-isn type of person who was a bit on the heavier side recently lost maybe like 10 pounds I didn't need and I feel light as heck running around the court etc. Imagine the type of advantage that would be to a pro athlete,

[JYD]

The question isn't about Amir being productive and effective, it's whether or not he's in decline. And he is.

It started last year, so comparing this year's numbers to last year's isn't the best idea. Look at his rebound and block rates specifically, both started dipping last year and have dipped even further this year. First 4 years with us, his rebound rate was typically over 15%. Now it's at 12.4%. Block rate used to be at 3.5% or higher, now it's 2.8.

Offensively I think he's still about the same aside from the poor FT shooting, but in terms of grabbing contested boards and contesting shots the stats show he is not, and this falls right in line with deteriorating ankles.

[vini_vidi_vici]

The question isn't about Amir being productive and effective, it's whether or not he's in decline. And he is.

It started last year, so comparing this year's numbers to last year's isn't the best idea. Look at his rebound and block rates specifically, both started dipping last year and have dipped even further this year. First 4 years with us, his rebound rate was typically over 15%. Now it's at 12.4%. Block rate used to be at 3.5% or higher, now it's 2.8.

Offensively I think he's still about the same aside from the poor FT shooting, but in terms of grabbing contested boards and contesting shots the stats show he is not, and this falls right in line with deteriorating ankles.

Hes getting more Contested REBs per game than last year. 3.0 this year vs 2.9 last year. Its uncontested ones, which maybe its just me and thats fair, but im not concerned about those with all the wings/guards getting a higher REB%.

Every year ppl claim hes declining. Hes still the most effective defensive big by the numbers, and the a huge part of the offense not because his shooting (which is deserving of merit, the TS%) but because of all the screens, and its effectiveness getting our perimeter players open, its a crucial reason the offense is so efficient.

[knickerbocker2k2]

The question isn't about Amir being productive and effective, it's whether or not he's in decline. And he is.

There are certain areas where statistically he is in declined (blks/rb). You infer it is because his body is failing, but IMO there are much better explanations as he at the same time improved in certain areas (shooting and passing). Defensively as well he fouls at less rate.

1) First couple of years he was bench player going against other bench players. Last two years he for the most part faces starting front court.

2) This and last year, he primarily plays as PF. He logs most of his minutes with JV, so that means 1) he is playing with better rebounder (no longer with Bargs) 2) he is less likely to be close the basket (covering stretch PF).

[JYD]

Hes getting more Contested REBs per game than last year. 3.0 this year vs 2.9 last year. Its uncontested ones, which maybe its just me and thats fair, but im not concerned about those with all the wings/guards getting a higher REB%.

Every year ppl claim hes declining. Hes still the most effective defensive big by the numbers, and the a huge part of the offense not because his shooting (which is deserving of merit, the TS%) but because of all the screens, and its effectiveness getting our perimeter players open, its a crucial reason the offense is so efficient.

Fair enough, you can argue there are other factors with the rebounding. Shot contesting though is definitely affected by the ankle.

I don't think people say he's declining every year. It started last year when he started having more ankle issues.

My problem is the denial that he's got ankle issues, or maybe a denial that they won't be a problem. Clearly there are problems with them, and thinking they won't get worse is naive imo. It's not a comment on him being a good player or not, it's just the reality of the condition of his body.

In terms of contracts I think it's a mistake to pay a guy like that close to 10 mil/starter money when personally I've always thought of him more as a 6th man, even when healthy.

[JYD]

The question isn't about Amir being productive and effective, it's whether or not he's in decline. And he is.

There are certain areas where statistically he is in declined (blks/rb). You infer it is because his body is failing, but IMO there are much better explanations as he at the same time improved in certain areas (shooting and passing). Defensively as well he fouls at less rate.

1) First couple of years he was bench player going against other bench players. Last two years he for the most part faces starting front court.

2) This and last year, he primarily plays as PF. He logs most of his minutes with JV, so that means 1) he is playing with better rebounder (no longer with Bargs) 2) he is less likely to be close the basket (covering stretch PF).

Well this is where the eye test comes in. Watching him he looks less explosive than he used to be on a lot of nights. As I mentioned before he seems to have good nights and bad, but sometimes it looks like he has no lift at all. For example against GS he looked good and even had a nice oop catch and finish, against Portland he had 3 boards in 37 mins, the lowest of any starter.

He's definitely not as explosive as he was 2 years ago, there is definitely a downward slope in that regard for him, it's just not dramatic is all. Again though, the question is about decline. There is also a dramatic decline in his FT% for whatever reason.

Even if you don't buy eye tests, the fact he's contesting less and shooting worse at the FT line are statistic facts.

[vini_vidi_vici]

Hes getting more Contested REBs per game than last year. 3.0 this year vs 2.9 last year. Its uncontested ones, which maybe its just me and thats fair, but im not concerned about those with all the wings/guards getting a higher REB%.

Every year ppl claim hes declining. Hes still the most effective defensive big by the numbers, and the a huge part of the offense not because his shooting (which is deserving of merit, the TS%) but because of all the screens, and its effectiveness getting our perimeter players open, its a crucial reason the offense is so efficient.

Fair enough, you can argue there are other factors with the rebounding. Shot contesting though is definitely affected by the ankle.

I don't think people say he's declining every year. It started last year when he started having more ankle issues.

My problem is the denial that he's got ankle issues, or maybe a denial that they won't be a problem. Clearly there are problems with them, and thinking they won't get worse is naive imo. It's not a comment on him being a good player or not, it's just the reality of the condition of his body.

In terms of contracts I think it's a mistake to pay a guy like that close to 10 mil/starter money when personally I've always thought of him more as a 6th man, even when healthy.

His rim protection is only down 2.9 FG% from last year. I mean its worth mentioning sure, but lets see how he stands as the season progresses.

First hes probably the second most important player on this roster, but again thats prob where you and I (and alot of ppl) differ.

As for his ankles, it sure didnt inhibit Curry this year.

Steph has Achilles' ankles. "Tissue-paper ankles," as I've often called them on "First Take." Twice he has had ankle surgery, once to repair ligaments and once to clean out loose bodies. He has turned or tweaked his ankles countless times, sometimes while just dribbling half-speed. He has missed 54 games over four NBA seasons and has winced though many more.

He is in danger of becoming the point guard version of 6-foot-11 Bill Walton, who once played as audaciously as he speaks. Walton was an NBA MVP and a Finals MVP but limped through parts of 10 NBA seasons battling all sorts of foot and ankle injuries, finally winding up as (sad but true) a Sixth Man of the Year for Boston in 1985-86. Talk about what might have been. Walton had the skill, spring and Frisbee-chasing energy to dominate for two decades. But he needed ankle fusion after his career ended.

I can go over a litany of players who have fared well despite ankle injuries, but its all anecdotal. No disrespect because youre entitled to your opinion, but ill plead ignorance and leave that to McKechnie and the medical staff. Hes looked fine to me recently, and aside from a few isolated weeks early in the season, hes been fine by the numbers.

I disagree its mistake to sign the guy, but again we differ as I pointed out on the role/importance of him within the team.

[JYD]

I don't disagree he's important.

But, I would also argue that the role he plays, and should play going forward, should not be our starting PF, nor on a starting PF salary. I think we need to get someone else in here to start for us, either via FA or trade. We need whatever contract Amir is on to be an asset. Because despite his importance and contribution he is not going to be the factor that wins us a title.