JV on pace to do what only 8 centers have done

[Kabookalu]

The problem with Jonas is that the way his game is constructed right now, he's a dead end player. He's only good for finishing plays, and it's hard for his teammates to play off of him because he's not a willing passer. With Jonas though he's really good at what he does, really really good, and people think that if they widened the parameters of his game more then he'll proportionately produce numbers without seeing any negative repercussions. I can assure people that won't happen, our offense will be worse for it.

People preach for a more sharing offense and deliberately ask for our coach to spam ISO plays for our worst passer.

[Hero]

Bingo. The PP/Amir duo crushes teams.

+11.6 net rating this year
+13.6 net rating last year

And that's with a lot of those minutes coming in the 4th Q, you would think.

JV's defense leaves a lot to be desired.

While his PER is solid for his age, it doesn't take into account defense or context.

Looking at Defensive plus minus, JV is in really bad company. The same goes for most metrics which take into account defense. As much as you may want to get excited over his PER being only accomplished by 8 players, the same could be said about his poor defense. JV will always look good with PER or TS but basketball is a 2 way sport.

Hero, I have to ask. What is your point here? Is your point that he's a hopeless case? I think the more important question any "fan" should be asking is why that stat has dropped every season since his rookie year. Like you conveniently leave that out. He came into the league a better defender than now.

I think it's as simple as this: they wanted him to put on weight so he could hold his ground against bigger players, and that wasn't managed properly. The bad news: defensive struggles now. The good news: a completely fixable problem.

The point is that him being among 8 centers in PER is meaningless. There is no context. I'd sooner take notice of the terrible company he is in defensively over his company in PER.

Look at some of the posts in this thread. Bashing Casey for not playing JV more because his PER is so great.

Yet when you look at other stats besides PER, like what I did, even when compared to other young players, JV's defense is really atrocious. Only a few players have been that bad in the history of the game.

How many of the players I just listed there fixed their problem?

[Rapcity_11]

The problem with Jonas is that the way his game is constructed right now, he's a dead end player. He's only good for finishing plays, and it's hard for his teammates to play off of him because he's not a willing passer. With Jonas though he's really good at what he does, really really good, and people think that if they widened the parameters of his game more then he'll proportionately produce numbers without seeing any negative repercussions. I can assure people that won't happen, our offense will be worse for it.

People preach for a more sharing offense and deliberately ask for our coach to spam ISO plays for our worst passer.

0.8 assists per 100 possessions is ridiculous.

[Tha Cynic]

oh, thats why we sit him on the bench in the 4th

I think he is benched in the 4th because he is significantly worse than any of the guys on the list on defense. Casey just doesn't trust JV on defense.

What made the other guys on this list special was that they were bringing it on both sides of the court. JV is playing really well offensively but not defensively.

Casey is a defensive coach? I know theoretically he's supposed to be one, but in actuality, everything he does says otherwise.

The only way you're going to trust a guy is by letting him learn through his mistakes, like JV has been doing throughout his career. His development is going a lot slower than it should be because of Casey. Now that JV is actually playing well, you would think he would start playing JV down the stretch, but we still see him get benched after dominating games for 3 quarters. It's like Casey falls in love with his offensive jumpshooters and forgets about JV once he goes out.

[Clementine9]

That's the only explanation for a **** ton of the posts around here.

How about this team isn't going anywhere without an inside presence and Jonas has consistently shown potential to be a presence. Maybe not our superstar, but definite star potential. People want to see him succeed and want to see him get better. There is very little reason for 18 minute games. We're not winning a championship this year, probably not next year either. We are sacrificing the development of a potential cornerstone for a round 1 or 2 exit peak. That's the issue people have with Jonas's limited minutes.

If anyone is denying the better line-ups, frankly, they're stupid. But that's part of the development. He's not going to go out there and be some dominant player. The line-ups with him on the floor aren't always going to be the best. But we should be establishing a long term identity with him in mind, and we're not doing that. We are establishing an undersized team that is going to get its ass beat year after year because when the perimeter shots aren't falling they're going to rely on a center who isn't prepared to suddenly take on a demanding role on offense. And the team itself won't be prepared to play an inside-out game.

Really, his issues are fairly straightforward. On offense, he has to continue to develop a feel for when to use his counters, and when to pass out/re-post (though a player has to be available for that). What he has demonstrated is that he has enough go to moves to be even better on offense, he just has timing (hesitates) and decision-making issues. On defense, drop the extra weight to gain similar mobility to his rookie season. We can see his timing and recognition for help is getting better, but he can't defend at the 15'+ range or recover to players in the PnR fast enough.

I don't see any problem he can't overcome to be a really good player. I don't think he'll ever be some sort of superstar, but he's an extremely important piece for the long term success of the team. The timing of his arrival was unfortunate because a team with very limited success all of a sudden got a little and its popularity exploded. Now we don't have time for those JV line-ups that aren't outperforming the Ppat/AJ ones. The PP/AJ line-ups will never take us anywhere significant, but now we have to bank towards those because the team isn't allowed to win 45 instead of 55 games.

If he's going to just stagnate here, we should move him and commit to a small, fast, perimeter oriented team, and stop half assing it. We'd get a lot in return. But we have posters on here who think the vocal Jonas support is about a player. It's about a position, and what that position offers to a team. Develop that position when you have a player who fits the purpose, or get rid of that player in favour of other players who fit what you're trying to do.

[ForeverTFC]

JV's defense leaves a lot to be desired.

While his PER is solid for his age, it doesn't take into account defense or context.

Looking at Defensive plus minus, JV is in really bad company. The same goes for most metrics which take into account defense. As much as you may want to get excited over his PER being only accomplished by 8 players, the same could be said about his poor defense. JV will always look good with PER or TS but basketball is a 2 way sport.

Hero, I have to ask. What is your point here? Is your point that he's a hopeless case? I think the more important question any "fan" should be asking is why that stat has dropped every season since his rookie year. Like you conveniently leave that out. He came into the league a better defender than now.

I think it's as simple as this: they wanted him to put on weight so he could hold his ground against bigger players, and that wasn't managed properly. The bad news: defensive struggles now. The good news: a completely fixable problem.

The point is that him being among 8 centers in PER is meaningless. There is no context. I'd sooner take notice of the terrible company he is in defensively over his company in PER.

Look at some of the posts in this thread. Bashing Casey for not playing JV more because his PER is so great.

Yet when you look at other stats besides PER, like what I did, even when compared to other young players, JV's defense is really atrocious. Only a few players have been that bad in the history of the game.

How many of the players I just listed there fixed their problem?

I hate replying and feeding your agenda, but I'll bite; understand DBPM and its limitations:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/bpm.html

BPM was created to intentionally only use information that is available historically, going back to 1973-74. More recently there has been more information gathered, both in box scores and via play-by-play, but in order to create a stat with historical usefulness, those stats have been ignored for BPM. In other words - it is possible to create a better stat than BPM for measuring players, but difficult to make a better one that can also be used historically.

There are limitations on all box score stats - if the box score doesn't measure a particular contribution, a box-score-based metric can only approximate that contribution. This is not a great hindrance on the offensive side, as nearly everything of importance on offense is captured by the box score (only missing things like screen-setting), but on defense the box score is quite limited. Blocks, steals, and rebounds, along with minutes and what little information offensive numbers yield about defensive performance are all that is available. Such critical components of defense as positioning, communication, and the other factors that make Kevin Garnett and Tim Duncan elite on defense can't be captured, unfortunately.

What does this mean? Box Plus/Minus is good at measuring offense and solid overall, but the defensive numbers in particular should not be considered definitive. Look at the defensive values as a guide, but don't hesitate to discount them when a player is well known as a good or bad defender.

[vini_vidi_vici]

I just want to come and say PER is garbage. Carry on.

Really? I'm looking at the top 50 players by PER and the vast majority of them belong to the upper tier. Just looking at the top-10 and you have MVP candidates outside of 2 anomalies.

PER does a remarkably good job of valuing a players impact in 1 figure, especially with a sufficient sample of minutes / games. Sure it has some shortcoming like biasing towards scorers and not including specialists but it still is the best single indicator that I've seen.

Thats how you determine if a stat is good? Fair enough.

JV continually improves at a pace that would put him in legendary company

RealGM poster: "FIRE CASEY WE'RE NOT USING HIM PROPEROLY THEYRE RUINING HIS DEVELOPMENT!! HES TOO BIG AND MUSCLY MAKE HIM SKInnY AGAIN!!!!!"

Im not referencing you in particular, but I hate this narrative. "he was told to put on weight, they dont know how to develop", how many times have you read that?

How about they are developing his running technique with the Oregon coach?

How about they are developing his low post moves/foot work with Hakeem?

How about they are trying to develop his rim protection/defense?

People will only see what they want to see, and rigidly stick to things here.

[vini_vidi_vici]

That's the only explanation for a **** ton of the posts around here.

How about this team isn't going anywhere without an inside presence and Jonas has consistently shown potential to be a presence.

Prove that.

[Clementine9]

JV's defense leaves a lot to be desired.

While his PER is solid for his age, it doesn't take into account defense or context.

Looking at Defensive plus minus, JV is in really bad company. The same goes for most metrics which take into account defense. As much as you may want to get excited over his PER being only accomplished by 8 players, the same could be said about his poor defense. JV will always look good with PER or TS but basketball is a 2 way sport.

Hero, I have to ask. What is your point here? Is your point that he's a hopeless case? I think the more important question any "fan" should be asking is why that stat has dropped every season since his rookie year. Like you conveniently leave that out. He came into the league a better defender than now.

I think it's as simple as this: they wanted him to put on weight so he could hold his ground against bigger players, and that wasn't managed properly. The bad news: defensive struggles now. The good news: a completely fixable problem.

The point is that him being among 8 centers in PER is meaningless. There is no context. I'd sooner take notice of the terrible company he is in defensively over his company in PER.

Look at some of the posts in this thread. Bashing Casey for not playing JV more because his PER is so great.

Yet when you look at other stats besides PER, like what I did, even when compared to other young players, JV's defense is really atrocious. Only a few players have been that bad in the history of the game.

How many of the players I just listed there fixed their problem?

Yeah, you love context but offer none regarding where his specific defensive lapses lie. There is no context to that stat, and it has fallen fairly significantly since his rookie season. You're not interested in talking about that, just about posting as much negativity you can about a Raptor. Excellent fan.

And regarding the passing. I don't know how anyone could say JV is a "reluctant" passer. I don't see him get the ball and think "oh man all he does is miss wide open guys." Look at his post ups and what other players on the floor are doing. If you want him to learn to throw out of the post, there has to be some consistency to his role and a gameplan for other players when he's in possession of the ball. If anyone thinks there's any consistency to his role offensively, they're lying to themselves or lying for the sake of argument. We actually used to run plays that saw JV as an occasional passer. Those are gone. We run essentially two plays now: isolated post-ups, and the one where he uses a screen on a baseline cut for a wide open pass under the basket. Where is there room for him to be a passer? Seriously. It's stand around and watch Jonas time when they give him the ball. I don't care what good things that does for his offensive stats, I think that is a mistake. AST% says NOTHING about a player's ability to pass. Sometimes it's an indication of their lack of passing ability, sometimes it's a reluctance to pass, other times there just isn't any situation they're required to get an assist.

[Rapcity_11]

That's the only explanation for a **** ton of the posts around here.

How about this team isn't going anywhere without an inside presence and Jonas has consistently shown potential to be a presence. Maybe not our superstar, but definite star potential. People want to see him succeed and want to see him get better. There is very little reason for 18 minute games. We're not winning a championship this year, probably not next year either. We are sacrificing the development of a potential cornerstone for a round 1 or 2 exit peak. That's the issue people have with Jonas's limited minutes.

If anyone is denying the better line-ups, frankly, they're stupid. But that's part of the development. He's not going to go out there and be some dominant player. The line-ups with him on the floor aren't always going to be the best. But we should be establishing a long term identity with him in mind, and we're not doing that. We are establishing an undersized team that is going to get its ass beat year after year because when the perimeter shots aren't falling they're going to rely on a center who isn't prepared to suddenly take on a demanding role on offense. And the team itself won't be prepared to play an inside-out game.

99% of the pro-JV posts I'm referring to do not agree with this. Those points you just mentioned are very, very rarely said around here.

[Clementine9]

That's the only explanation for a **** ton of the posts around here.

How about this team isn't going anywhere without an inside presence and Jonas has consistently shown potential to be a presence.

Prove that.

Prove Jonas will always be a bad defender.

Completely stupid and useless comment.

His USG% says he's more than a garbage big, but less than a real focal point. He has great efficiency and doesn't turn the ball over a lot, he is a pretty good offensive rebounder. These are perfect building blocks for an inside presence. The only issue is his assist rate but there are perfectly explainable reasons for that.

[vini_vidi_vici]

How about this team isn't going anywhere without an inside presence and Jonas has consistently shown potential to be a presence.

Prove that.

Prove Jonas will always be a bad defender.

Completely stupid and useless comment.

His USG% says he's more than a garbage big, but less than a real focal point. He has great efficiency and doesn't turn the ball over a lot, he is a pretty good offensive rebounder. These are perfect building blocks for an inside presence. The only issue is his assist rate but there are perfectly explainable reasons for that.

So where did you prove this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence?

[ForeverTFC]

I just want to come and say PER is garbage. Carry on.

Really? I'm looking at the top 50 players by PER and the vast majority of them belong to the upper tier. Just looking at the top-10 and you have MVP candidates outside of 2 anomalies.

PER does a remarkably good job of valuing a players impact in 1 figure, especially with a sufficient sample of minutes / games. Sure it has some shortcoming like biasing towards scorers and not including specialists but it still is the best single indicator that I've seen.

Thats how you determine if a stat is good? Fair enough.

JV continually improves at a pace that would put him in legendary company

RealGM poster: "FIRE CASEY WE'RE NOT USING HIM PROPEROLY THEYRE RUINING HIS DEVELOPMENT!! HES TOO BIG AND MUSCLY MAKE HIM SKInnY AGAIN!!!!!"

Im not referencing you in particular, but I hate this narrative. "he was told to put on weight, they dont know how to develop", how many times have you read that?

How about they are developing his running technique with the Oregon coach?

How about they are developing his low post moves/foot work with Hakeem?

How about they are trying to develop his rim protection/defense?

People will only see what they want to see, and rigidly stick to things here.

To be fair, there was a ton of talk about Jonas getting bigger at the beginning of his career. With that said, I don't think this is a bad thing. He has clearly become a better rebounder and rim protector because of it. Learning to play with weight takes time, and the articles you link show that the team is committed to having him learn how to handle his size.

[Clementine9]

That's the only explanation for a **** ton of the posts around here.

How about this team isn't going anywhere without an inside presence and Jonas has consistently shown potential to be a presence. Maybe not our superstar, but definite star potential. People want to see him succeed and want to see him get better. There is very little reason for 18 minute games. We're not winning a championship this year, probably not next year either. We are sacrificing the development of a potential cornerstone for a round 1 or 2 exit peak. That's the issue people have with Jonas's limited minutes.

If anyone is denying the better line-ups, frankly, they're stupid. But that's part of the development. He's not going to go out there and be some dominant player. The line-ups with him on the floor aren't always going to be the best. But we should be establishing a long term identity with him in mind, and we're not doing that. We are establishing an undersized team that is going to get its ass beat year after year because when the perimeter shots aren't falling they're going to rely on a center who isn't prepared to suddenly take on a demanding role on offense. And the team itself won't be prepared to play an inside-out game.

99% of the pro-JV posts I'm referring to do not agree with this. Those points you just mentioned are very, very rarely said around here.

Well I think we need to start rejecting the extremes. Too many stupid people around here. Any of the good discussion gets lost in the insanity. The stats tell us a lot and anyone rejecting them should be dismissed. But then there's the other side with guys like V3 and Hero who act like stats suddenly define a player or a team for all time. "This is what the stats say now, so this is exactly how it should be." Stats don't tell you how many minutes you can play certain players/line-ups before they get burnt out or teams adjust to them, stats don't tell you whether or not a player's issues are fixable or not, stats don't tell you the best decisions to make for the long term benefit of the team. They inform these things to help you make decisions or, in our case, have a discussion. If it was up to posters like that, there would be no discussion. It would be "This is what the stats say now" and then a bunch of "okay," "that sounds good," "all right." Because the rest is just "conjecture," as though the development and ups and downs of any player, and the reasons for that, is somehow 100% predictable and quantifiable.

You can make certain generalizations from stats. For example, I think defensively JV will never be an elite player. He isn't this explosive, highly mobile big who can get around the floor quickly. But he was certainly faster and more athletic than he is now. There is an in between where he is able to guard the perimeter a little better and have the strength he needs to hold his ground closer to the basket. But to say that his defense is bad therefore he shouldn't see the floor that much is wrong. His defense for the first 30 games this season looked quite good. Possibly the best it's been during his career in a lot of ways but I don't know any of the comparative stats for that off the top of my head. The last month or so? Atrocious. As a fan I'm less interested in coming on here and bashing him for that and more interested in wondering why that has happened.

[Clementine9]

Prove that.

Prove Jonas will always be a bad defender.

Completely stupid and useless comment.

His USG% says he's more than a garbage big, but less than a real focal point. He has great efficiency and doesn't turn the ball over a lot, he is a pretty good offensive rebounder. These are perfect building blocks for an inside presence. The only issue is his assist rate but there are perfectly explainable reasons for that.

So where did you prove this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence?

What do you mean prove? Prove this team is going somewhere with its guard heavy offense.

I think a strong inside presence, whether it be a C or PF is a necessity for the success of a team in the playoffs, with limited exceptions related to highly dominant wings.

There is nothing 100% true about what I say, just like there isn't anything 100% true about what anyone trying to predict a sporting outcome comes up with.

[vini_vidi_vici]

But then there's the other side with guys like V3 and Hero who act like stats suddenly define a player or a team for all time. "This is what the stats say now, so this is exactly how it should be." Stats don't tell you how many minutes you can play certain players/line-ups before they get burnt out or teams adjust to them, stats don't tell you whether or not a player's issues are fixable or not, stats don't tell you the best decisions to make for the long term benefit of the team. They inform these things to help you make decisions or, in our case, have a discussion. If it was up to posters like that, there would be no discussion. It would be "This is what the stats say now" and then a bunch of "okay," "that sounds good," "all right." Because the rest is just "conjecture," as though the development and ups and downs of any player, and the reasons for that, is somehow 100% predictable and quantifiable.

Thats quite an assumption. Incredible youre able to make these leaps.

[Clementine9]

But then there's the other side with guys like V3 and Hero who act like stats suddenly define a player or a team for all time. "This is what the stats say now, so this is exactly how it should be." Stats don't tell you how many minutes you can play certain players/line-ups before they get burnt out or teams adjust to them, stats don't tell you whether or not a player's issues are fixable or not, stats don't tell you the best decisions to make for the long term benefit of the team. They inform these things to help you make decisions or, in our case, have a discussion. If it was up to posters like that, there would be no discussion. It would be "This is what the stats say now" and then a bunch of "okay," "that sounds good," "all right." Because the rest is just "conjecture," as though the development and ups and downs of any player, and the reasons for that, is somehow 100% predictable and quantifiable.

Thats quite an assumption. Incredible youre able to make these leaps.

Well, unlike you I actually present something. I know it's difficult for you to follow as you don't really read what people have to say but would prefer to look for anything that agrees with you.

I can't count the amount of threads you've bailed on the moment there is any resistance put against what you're tossing up (which generally isn't much). At best we'll get an "I don't have time for this, I'll look into it later on."

[vini_vidi_vici]

Prove Jonas will always be a bad defender.

Completely stupid and useless comment.

His USG% says he's more than a garbage big, but less than a real focal point. He has great efficiency and doesn't turn the ball over a lot, he is a pretty good offensive rebounder. These are perfect building blocks for an inside presence. The only issue is his assist rate but there are perfectly explainable reasons for that.

So where did you prove this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence?

What do you mean prove? Prove this team is going somewhere with its guard heavy offense.

I think a strong inside presence, whether it be a C or PF is a necessity for the success of a team in the playoffs, with limited exceptions related to highly dominant wings.

There is nothing 100% true about what I say, just like there isn't anything 100% true about what anyone trying to predict a sporting outcome comes up with.

The onus on you to prove your ramblings, not me.

This is the issue, you use vague supposition and pronounce it as fact. You want discussion, but excuse stats because they dont give context? Yet youre able to say this team isnt going anywhere without an inside presence? Do you see the problem here??

Ill note the limited exceptions as the out to your narrative.

You know whats 100% true, statistics.

[vini_vidi_vici]

But then there's the other side with guys like V3 and Hero who act like stats suddenly define a player or a team for all time. "This is what the stats say now, so this is exactly how it should be." Stats don't tell you how many minutes you can play certain players/line-ups before they get burnt out or teams adjust to them, stats don't tell you whether or not a player's issues are fixable or not, stats don't tell you the best decisions to make for the long term benefit of the team. They inform these things to help you make decisions or, in our case, have a discussion. If it was up to posters like that, there would be no discussion. It would be "This is what the stats say now" and then a bunch of "okay," "that sounds good," "all right." Because the rest is just "conjecture," as though the development and ups and downs of any player, and the reasons for that, is somehow 100% predictable and quantifiable.

Thats quite an assumption. Incredible youre able to make these leaps.

Well, unlike you I actually present something. I know it's difficult for you to follow as you don't really read what people have to say but would prefer to look for anything that agrees with you.

I can't count the amount of threads you've bailed on the moment there is any resistance put against what you're tossing up (which generally isn't much). At best we'll get an "I don't have time for this, I'll look into in later on."

Now I dont read what ppl write that disagrees with me? seems like another leap?

Yea im sorry, I have a thing called a job, it requires me to do things like work, in order to make something called money, youve heard of this employment thing correct?

Edit: Funny how im looked at to disprove/approve everything, yes its resistance that prevents me from looking up other ppls narratives. I should look up everything for everyone should they disagree with me, seems logical.

[Clementine9]

You want discussion, but excuse stats because they dont give context?

This is exactly what I mean by you not reading. Where have I rejected stats?