Official RJ Barrett Thread Part 2

[Scase]

I think that one's pretty simple, it's because he's been a better FT shooter before already. He's had a couple of seasons where he shot 74%. If he was just doing that it would be fine. If he was a couple of points better than that it would be nice.

He doesn't need a significant leap, he just needs to get back to where he's been at least.

He shot :
66% in college
61% in year 1
74% in year 2
71% in year 3
74% in year 4
71% in year 5
70% (so far) in year 6
He also averages about 70% when playing for team canada.

74% is an outlier more than anything. He's never going to be a good FT shooter, it's 6 years in, and the peak he's managed is below average. In the last decade SFs have averaged a little over 78% from the line, there is nothing in his 6 year NBA, college, or international play history to indicate he will suddenly jump close to 10%.

Sometimes guys get better, but a lot of times what you see from large sample sizes over significant periods of time, is what you get.

Not sure how you can look at this and say 74% is an outlier when he's hit those marks 2 out of 7 yrs posted and 5-7 he's hovered around 70-74% .

Really it would be astronomical of RJ to get to 74% while he's currently avg 70% ??

2 out of 7, while being a small sample size would be an outlier, same as his 61% rookie year. As for the jump I was referring to, I wasn't suggesting 70 -> 74 is a big jump, I was saying that his current average to league average is a large jump.

even a 74% FT doesn't cut it for me for a sg or sf, especially his bread and butter is driving to the basket. We could lose a very close game because of free throws if we play both Barnes and RJ the majority minutes.

Scottie is actually above average at his position 74% vs 76% career average, RJ is notably below average. Scottie isn't a concern to me in that regard, but RJ definitely is.

RJ is a career 71% and is actually closer to 73% without his horrible rookie year, Scottie is a career 76%.

Being worried about 1 but not the other is just clearly you having bias.

Just because objective stats don't jive with your glazing, doesn't mean they aren't valid.

This coming from you is **** hilarious.

Scottie is not a concern because his career average has him hitting his FTs at league average. Scottie has taken 67 this year and is a few % below his average, that's a small sample size. Scottie even with his current down year is only 4.5% off league average.


Rj is a concern because he is 8% below league average and has never hit average in his career. RJ has taken 86 this year and while it is also a small sample size, it is right in line with his career average smack dab in margin of error territory of +/- 1%. RJ in the current year is 8% below league average.

This is a very basic concept to grasp, if this is still too tricky let me know, I might be able to incorporate some shapes and colours if that would help. The level of smugness you posses for someone who struggles to comprehend basic English is pretty impressive.

But yeah, I'm the one that's biased here, cause I'm the one that is suggesting we throw out a year to artificially inflate a stat, right? Maybe one day you will get over your "Scase stole my girlfriend" level of animosity you have, and you'll be able to have a rational conversation, but today is not that day. Keep on hating little buddy.

[tsherkin]

We have a lot of young pieces. That's context changing possibilities. None of that requires prayer.

For one of them to turn into an MVP-level player certainly does.

[YogurtProducer]

He shot :
66% in college
61% in year 1
74% in year 2
71% in year 3
74% in year 4
71% in year 5
70% (so far) in year 6
He also averages about 70% when playing for team canada.

74% is an outlier more than anything. He's never going to be a good FT shooter, it's 6 years in, and the peak he's managed is below average. In the last decade SFs have averaged a little over 78% from the line, there is nothing in his 6 year NBA, college, or international play history to indicate he will suddenly jump close to 10%.

Sometimes guys get better, but a lot of times what you see from large sample sizes over significant periods of time, is what you get.

Not sure how you can look at this and say 74% is an outlier when he's hit those marks 2 out of 7 yrs posted and 5-7 he's hovered around 70-74% .

Really it would be astronomical of RJ to get to 74% while he's currently avg 70% ??

2 out of 7, while being a small sample size would be an outlier, same as his 61% rookie year. As for the jump I was referring to, I wasn't suggesting 70 -> 74 is a big jump, I was saying that his current average to league average is a large jump.

Scottie is actually above average at his position 74% vs 76% career average, RJ is notably below average. Scottie isn't a concern to me in that regard, but RJ definitely is.

RJ is a career 71% and is actually closer to 73% without his horrible rookie year, Scottie is a career 76%.

Being worried about 1 but not the other is just clearly you having bias.

Just because objective stats don't jive with your glazing, doesn't mean they aren't valid.

This coming from you is **** hilarious.

Scottie is not a concern because his career average has him hitting his FTs at league average. Scottie has taken 67 this year and is a few % below his average, that's a small sample size. Scottie even with his current down year is only 4.5% off league average.


Rj is a concern because he is 8% below league average and has never hit average in his career. RJ has taken 86 this year and while it is also a small sample size, it is right in line with his career average smack dab in margin of error territory of +/- 1%. RJ in the current year is 8% below league average.

This is a very basic concept to grasp, if this is still too tricky let me know, I might be able to incorporate some shapes and colours if that would help. The level of smugness you posses for someone who struggles to comprehend basic English is pretty impressive.

But yeah, I'm the one that's biased here, cause I'm the one that is suggesting we throw out a year to artificially inflate a stat, right? Maybe one day you will get over your "Scase stole my girlfriend" level of animosity you have, and you'll be able to have a rational conversation, but today is not that day. Keep on hating little buddy.

TLDR - Scottie at 76% is fine because it’s Scottie, but 73% for RJ isn’t because it’s RJ.

That’s as simple of your post as it gets. You bend the facts so RJ looks worse and Scottie looks better, but don’t let the fact change that you’re opinion is completely flipped over 3 percent.

For two guys that take about 6FT/game, that’s a whopping difference of 0.18 points per game difference between the two.

You throw out RJs good 74% year, but not the 61% bad year. Why not just year the career averages so it balances out (on both guys sides). The difference between the two is literally almost nothing.

Sample sizes and context only matter when it’s something negative about Scottie though, right?

[tsherkin]

TLDR - Scottie at 76% is fine because it’s Scottie, but 73% for RJ isn’t because it’s RJ.

76% isn't awesome but it's acceptable.

73% isn't awful, but he actually isn't that and hasn't been consistently above 71.5% at the line. If he gets to 73% this season, that'd be decent. Not great, but not the worst. Fairly reflective of his overall proficiency as a shooter... and the same for Barnes, of course.

Shooting of all types is a concern for both, I think that should be a universally accepted point.

You throw out RJs good 74% year,

And tbf, Barrett has shot 74%+ twice, in both 2021 and 2023. And then he's also under 70% again so far this season.

And RJ doesn't have a lot of success above the break or at all from mid-range. I think I line up with Yogurt on this one: a marginal difference in FT% isn't a big deal.

[earthtone]

His titles mean he was a core piece on those teams, period.

They certainly mean he was on the roster. And he definitely contributed, but it's worth remembering how those teams won. The Bucks had a dominant 2-way MVP rocking 30/13/5 and leading the playoffs in rebounding. They had Khris Middleton scoring 23 ppg in the playoffs. Brook Lopez in the middle.

…Also, Jrue wasn't much different a player at that age than he was at 24, so it's also not especially illuminating. What happened was the context around him allowed for his weaknesses to be overlooked/overcome.

I'd like to think RJ actually still has a change to improve because we have some use-case change data for him based on how we deploy him, right?

I don’t understand why you’re trying to diminish Jrue’s accomplishments to prove the point that… its impossible for RJ Barrett to improve? Development in the NBA stalls at 24?

Jrue led a championship team in assists and steals, was second in minutes played, and was arguably the best perimeter defender in the entire league. He made the all-defensive team six times (and counting) after turning 24, and watching young Sixers Jrue vs Bucks/Celtics Jrue the difference is clear.

Holiday contributed, for sure, but there's only so much data there. A bunch of other guys could have filled that role without much pause from Milwaukee's run.

A lot of players in the NBA are similar in level and can be successful in different circumstances. If you swap one good player with another good player, your team will likely continue to play well. I see what point you’re trying to make here.

[tsherkin]

I don’t understand why you’re trying to diminish Jrue’s accomplishments to prove the point that… its impossible for RJ Barrett to improve? Development in the NBA stalls at 24?

That isn't even close to what I said. In fact, it's pretty close to the opposite of my remarks about RJ. I wasnt talking about Barrett at all when I was discussing Holiday, except to note that Barrett still has time to actually improve.

Not sure how you read that so incorrectly, tbh. I was fairly explicit.

[earthtone]

I don’t understand why you’re trying to diminish Jrue’s accomplishments to prove the point that… its impossible for RJ Barrett to improve? Development in the NBA stalls at 24?

That isn't even close to what I said. In fact, it's pretty close to the opposite of my remarks about RJ. I wasnt talking about Barrett at all when I was discussing Holiday, except to note that Barrett still has time to actually improve.

Not sure how you read that so incorrectly, tbh. I was fairly explicit.

And as it happens, during the 2021 title, his scoring wasn't stunning. He was almost 4% below postseason average TS% on 13 FGA/g. He was horrid ass against the Nets. He was hitting his three against the Hawks but was still about 1.7% below postseason average TS, and then was dog crap against the Suns in the Finals.

So his titles after the age of 30 mean only so much, leastwise when you look at his scoring; obviously, he does other things as well. He wasn't asked to carry a huge scoring load, which was good, because he was pretty bad at it. He was a supporting member who could sometimes hit his 3s, did a pretty good job of playmaking and was a quality defensive player. Decent piece, but let's not act like he suddenly and magically got better after that age, right? So if this is to apply to Barrett, it's not an especially flattering comparison.

Of course, RJ is still young, and there are some encouraging signs as far as how we deploy and support him. But yeah, Jrue isn't a great way to position the idea of him developing over time.

You begin by diminishing Jrue’s accomplishments and importance to multiple title winning teams, following by saying he didn’t improve after the age of 24, and then directly state that comparing RJ to Jrue is “not an especially flattering comparison”.

I’m failing to see how my interpretation “isn’t even close” to what you said/meant

[tsherkin]

You begin by diminishing Jrue’s accomplishments and importance to multiple title winning teams, following by saying he didn’t improve after the age of 24, and then directly state that comparing RJ to Jrue is “not an especially flattering comparison”.


I’m failing to see how my interpretation “isn’t even close” to what you said/meant

Because, despite me repetitiously saying things directly to the contrary, you took my remarks about Jrue and applied them to Barrett. My point about Jrue not being a flattering comparison was specifically to note that it implied Barrett wouldn't improve. Because that isn't what's happening; we ARE seeing signs that with the correct deployment, Barrett can show us something else.

So yeah, you got it wrong. Very badly.

[earthtone]

You begin by diminishing Jrue’s accomplishments and importance to multiple title winning teams, following by saying he didn’t improve after the age of 24, and then directly state that comparing RJ to Jrue is “not an especially flattering comparison”.


I’m failing to see how my interpretation “isn’t even close” to what you said/meant

Because, despite me repetitiously saying things directly to the contrary, you took my remarks about Jrue and applied them to Barrett. My point about Jrue not being a flattering comparison was specifically to note that it implied Barrett wouldn't improve. Because that isn't what's happening; we ARE seeing signs that with the correct deployment, Barrett can show us something else.

So yeah, you got it wrong. Very badly.

I guess I did, my bad on this one. Your point was so muddled by the needless diminishment of Jrue Holiday’s skill set, and the unclear sentiment on team building and player development that I missed it.

My bad

[Ell Curry]

Looking at his advanced stats, steal and block rate are his usual low. 2PT% is up and so his TS is now like league average for his position. Defensive rebounding slightly up.

Assists way up and turnovers are only slightly up, so even though some of those assists are the typical cheap ones that ballhandlers get, it's still a positive, if for versatility alone, or running the 2nd unit. Would be interesting to see how synergy numbers and scouts are breaking down his passing numbers, it might be only a slight improvement or it could be a massive one.

All in all, if you take in last year's numbers here, I'd say he has improved on O and is similar on D. Quickley might help him, as Mitchell isn't doing a ton and in theory more 3pt threat from elsewhere should help RJ and Barnes and Poeltl get to the bucket slightly more often and draw more fouls when they try as well

I'm still very wary of wings who aren't great shooters or defenders, because they seem like empty calories guys to me (DeMar and Ingram on the good end, Rudy Gay and Kuzma on the ugly end) who still get paid because they help teams get to respectable 35 to 45 win territory (which some owners and many GMs and coaches fighting for their jobs care about) but often lock you into that range (unless you have a truly, truly elite player around them).

I do think he might be best used as a 6th man, but we'd obviously need to trade for or draft a very good perimeter player to make that realistic.

[Ell Curry]

We should stagger RJ instead of Barnes. RJ as the back up point guard makes a lot of sense. He's a league leader in PPP as the ball handler in pick and rolls. There's potential there for him, Boucher, and Mogbo. The same goes for putting Dick next to him off the bench as our primary scorers.

Poeltl - Olynyk
Barnes - Mogbo - Boucher
Barrett - Brown
Agbaji - Dick
IQ - Barrett - Mitchell

The starting line up should have Barnes, IQ as the primary options while the bench should have Barrett and Dick as the primary options. We can use Mitchell when the defense is very porous and we have an opposing guard lighting us up.

I sort of see it shaping like this until the core changes, and making some assumptions about the draft:

Primary options, 2 out of 3 playing: Barnes, Barrett, 2025 1st
2 Shooters on the floor: Quickley, Dick, Agbaji, Walter
Bigs: Poeltl, Mogbo, Olynyk

and the 2026 draft maybe brings an Olynyk replacement and the other 1st maybe we use in a trade (upgrade Barrett, Poeltl or one of the shooters) or it's another crack at a primary option who can either be better than Barrett or the 2025 pick. If we draft a center with the 2025 pick, then maybe 2 cracks at on the ball guys in 2026 or use them both to trade up or go after someone with Olynyk's expiring and the MLE/re-signed Bruce Brown (or whatever we get back, 15M or so in salary is my point, that's about 30M you can take back and that gets to 35+ easily with a minimum guy or 2).

[RoteSchroder]

Not sure how you can look at this and say 74% is an outlier when he's hit those marks 2 out of 7 yrs posted and 5-7 he's hovered around 70-74% .

Really it would be astronomical of RJ to get to 74% while he's currently avg 70% ??

2 out of 7, while being a small sample size would be an outlier, same as his 61% rookie year. As for the jump I was referring to, I wasn't suggesting 70 -> 74 is a big jump, I was saying that his current average to league average is a large jump.

RJ is a career 71% and is actually closer to 73% without his horrible rookie year, Scottie is a career 76%.

Being worried about 1 but not the other is just clearly you having bias.


This coming from you is **** hilarious.

Scottie is not a concern because his career average has him hitting his FTs at league average. Scottie has taken 67 this year and is a few % below his average, that's a small sample size. Scottie even with his current down year is only 4.5% off league average.


Rj is a concern because he is 8% below league average and has never hit average in his career. RJ has taken 86 this year and while it is also a small sample size, it is right in line with his career average smack dab in margin of error territory of +/- 1%. RJ in the current year is 8% below league average.

This is a very basic concept to grasp, if this is still too tricky let me know, I might be able to incorporate some shapes and colours if that would help. The level of smugness you posses for someone who struggles to comprehend basic English is pretty impressive.

But yeah, I'm the one that's biased here, cause I'm the one that is suggesting we throw out a year to artificially inflate a stat, right? Maybe one day you will get over your "Scase stole my girlfriend" level of animosity you have, and you'll be able to have a rational conversation, but today is not that day. Keep on hating little buddy.

TLDR - Scottie at 76% is fine because it’s Scottie, but 73% for RJ isn’t because it’s RJ.

That’s as simple of your post as it gets. You bend the facts so RJ looks worse and Scottie looks better, but don’t let the fact change that you’re opinion is completely flipped over 3 percent.

For two guys that take about 6FT/game, that’s a whopping difference of 0.18 points per game difference between the two.

You throw out RJs good 74% year, but not the 61% bad year. Why not just year the career averages so it balances out (on both guys sides). The difference between the two is literally almost nothing.

Sample sizes and context only matter when it’s something negative about Scottie though, right?

If you take their career FT's and compare them in a Chi-square test, the difference between Scottie and RJ is statistically significant (P = 0.0062).

If you remove RJ's rookie season, which is ~10% lower than the rest of his years, the difference between Scottie and RJ's FT shooting is statistically insignificant (P > 0.05).

[tsherkin]

You begin by diminishing Jrue’s accomplishments and importance to multiple title winning teams, following by saying he didn’t improve after the age of 24, and then directly state that comparing RJ to Jrue is “not an especially flattering comparison”.


I’m failing to see how my interpretation “isn’t even close” to what you said/meant

Because, despite me repetitiously saying things directly to the contrary, you took my remarks about Jrue and applied them to Barrett. My point about Jrue not being a flattering comparison was specifically to note that it implied Barrett wouldn't improve. Because that isn't what's happening; we ARE seeing signs that with the correct deployment, Barrett can show us something else.

So yeah, you got it wrong. Very badly.

I guess I did, my bad on this one. Your point was so muddled by the needless diminishment of Jrue Holiday’s skill set, and the unclear sentiment on team building and player development that I missed it.

My bad

No, you just needed to pay attention to the repetitious remarks I made about my optimism over Barrett's potential to improve with the correct deployment plan. In this thread and in elsewhere. But cheers for the potshot. Have a nice night.

[PushDaRock]

Rough one for RJ but was predictable as this was just the worst possible match-up for him to score against. He only had 1 turnover mainly because he wasn't really being as aggressive as he normally is. He probably ends up with a 5+ turnover game if he attacked like he normally does with how good OKC is at swarming and getting strips. The 3 wasn't dropping either and that was probably the only way he was going to have an efficient game tonight. He didn't start scoring some buckets until the game was out of reach and the D softened up.

[ash_k]

Rough one for RJ but was predictable as this was just the worst possible match-up for him to score against. He only had 1 turnover mainly because he wasn't really being as aggressive as he normally is. He probably ends up with a 5+ turnover game if he attacked like he normally does with how good OKC is at swarming and getting strips. The 3 wasn't dropping either and that was probably the only way he was going to have an efficient game tonight. He didn't start scoring some buckets until the game was out of reach and the D softened up.

it is called "having a bad game", he did not bring the intensity needed to compete (same with Scottie) against that OKC team, nothing to do with the matchup...Last season, he went to #1OKC with Scottie and did 9-16 | 2-5 from 3 23 points..against SGA, Dort and them.

[WaltFrazier]

Read on Twitter

[Airmiess]

OKC defense this year is incredibly elite. Look at their personnel.

[PushDaRock]

Rough one for RJ but was predictable as this was just the worst possible match-up for him to score against. He only had 1 turnover mainly because he wasn't really being as aggressive as he normally is. He probably ends up with a 5+ turnover game if he attacked like he normally does with how good OKC is at swarming and getting strips. The 3 wasn't dropping either and that was probably the only way he was going to have an efficient game tonight. He didn't start scoring some buckets until the game was out of reach and the D softened up.

it is called "having a bad game", he did not bring the intensity needed to compete (same with Scottie) against that OKC team, nothing to do with the matchup...Last season, he went to #1OKC with Scottie and did 9-16 | 2-5 from 3 23 points..against SGA, Dort and them.

This OKC D is different this year. 112.1 DRTG last year to 103.7 DRTG this year, that's a massive improvement.

[tsherkin]

Rough one for RJ but was predictable as this was just the worst possible match-up for him to score against. He only had 1 turnover mainly because he wasn't really being as aggressive as he normally is. He probably ends up with a 5+ turnover game if he attacked like he normally does with how good OKC is at swarming and getting strips. The 3 wasn't dropping either and that was probably the only way he was going to have an efficient game tonight. He didn't start scoring some buckets until the game was out of reach and the D softened up.

Yeah, hard to really grill RJ about this one. Very tough D even without Chet, and that's without the entire team around him also failing to come through. Rough night, but not unexpected, and against an excellent team.

[Scase]

TLDR - Scottie at 76% is fine because it’s Scottie, but 73% for RJ isn’t because it’s RJ.

76% isn't awesome but it's acceptable.

73% isn't awful, but he actually isn't that and hasn't been consistently above 71.5% at the line. If he gets to 73% this season, that'd be decent. Not great, but not the worst. Fairly reflective of his overall proficiency as a shooter... and the same for Barnes, of course.

Shooting of all types is a concern for both, I think that should be a universally accepted point.

You throw out RJs good 74% year,

And tbf, Barrett has shot 74%+ twice, in both 2021 and 2023. And then he's also under 70% again so far this season.

And RJ doesn't have a lot of success above the break or at all from mid-range. I think I line up with Yogurt on this one: a marginal difference in FT% isn't a big deal.

I look at the numbers as relative to their peer, not in a vacuum. Scottie is at league average numbers for his position, and RJ is 7% below it. That's it. I am critical of things Scottie sucks at same as I am RJ.

I also don't know where this mythical 73% is coming from, he's shooting 71% on the season, he averages 71% for his career, so 71% seems like a pretty reasonable number to use.

I'm not saying RJ is the worst FT in history, simply that he is below average, and Scottie is average, that's why I am criticizing one over the other, it's not rocket science. Yogurt just gets triggered with every post of mine so it's like a Pavlovian response to him at this point to be contrarian.