Prediction Thread: Scottie Barnes' 2025/26 Stats

[earthtone]

Why would it take 'magic' for him to get back to his 2024 efficiency? He played his best off of Siakam and he'll have a similar threat in Ingram to draw defenders and provide him easier shots. He was also playing with a hand injury, so that being resolved should be worth a couple expected ticks in efficiency by itself.

Players becoming better shooters on their second contracts is incredibly common, and it's clear the org believes in Scottie's long term potential as a shooter. I think a return to his 2024 numbers is the goal for this season, and don't see any reason why it's out of reach

The idea that he's likely to become a 38%+ C+S 3pt shooter this year isn't very likely. He's been pretty crap at it in 3 out of 4 seasons, and the one injury-abbreviated season which highlighted two months of shooting should not really be the point of emphasis for him as a player. Scottie has strengths; shooting isn't one of them, and likely never will be. And the more we progress in building our team, the less important running shots to him becomes, which is a good thing.

From the time Scottie was drafted it was clear that he would take time to develop as a shooter, if he ever did at all. He developed quicker than anyone expected offensively and shot 38% on C&S and 34% from 3 overall as a 22 year old in his 3rd season. He took a step back in season 4, but I don't think there's any reason to believe he can't get back there... he's literally already proven he can hit that mark over a 60 game sample.

Shooting doesn't need to be a strength, but him being able to hit open threes at a decent clip is going to be key for our offense and our franchise as a whole.

[tsherkin]

From the time Scottie was drafted it was clear that he would take time to develop as a shooter, if he ever did at all.

Yes. He was a non-shooter with a weak foundation, so it was a weak likelihood to begin with, definitely a weakness. And him sucking from the corner augurs poorly for his development.

He developed quicker than anyone expected offensively

Did he?

Or did he have an abbreviated season where two months of shooting were over-represented?

Shooting doesn't need to be a strength, but him being able to hit open threes at a decent clip is going to be key for our offense and our franchise as a whole.

No it isn't. We can deprecate his position in our offense without losing a lot pretty easily.

[YogurtProducer]

He shot a LOT more of his 3's off the dribble (his assisted 3 rate went from 91% to 73%).

No he didn't. What he did was take more unassisted 3s. But of the 4.3 3PA/g he took, 2.9 were with 0 dribbles. That's 1 less per game than the year before. He took 0.5 3PA/g in 2024 where he took 1, 2 or 7+ dribbles, and 0.4 with 3-6 dribbles.

I am confused - are you agreeing or disagreeing here

You start by disagreeing, then next sentence agree by saying he took 1 less 0 dribble 3's than the year before? Or am I misinterpreting?

FWIW - its a combo of both. He (likely) is not shooting 27% from 3 again. He also (shouldnt) shoot 25% of his shots from the mid range (and 50% of his shots as jump shots).

He should be shooting 50%+ of his shots within 10 feet, if not more.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

I expect what we saw this year. I don't put a lot of stock in the idea that if we were actually trying we would have him approach the game differently. That would just lead to bad habits. Of all the guys Scottie is the one who gets to do whatever he wants so I just figure that's what he's been doing and will keep doing.

[JShuttlesworth]

18.5 PTS / 9 REB / 6.5 AST / 1.5 STL / 1.5 BLK

[tsherkin]

You start by disagreeing, then next sentence agree by saying he took 1 less 0 dribble 3's than the year before? Or am I misinterpreting?

I'm saying the major impact wasn't from taking more shots off the dribble. The extra, like, 0.6 3PA/g he took this year off a dribble were of far less importance to his issue than the 10% drop in his C+S percentage.

He should be shooting 50%+ of his shots within 10 feet, if not more.

Not if he is mostly shooting those from 3-10 and performs as he did last year. Remember, Barnes has shot under 43% from 3-10 feet for two straight seasons right now. That isn't doing him any favors, and wouldn't be a huge thing to lean on going forward. And I have my doubts that he's going to be capable of significantly increasing his proportion inside the RA.

[Indeed]

Why would it take 'magic' for him to get back to his 2024 efficiency? He played his best off of Siakam and he'll have a similar threat in Ingram to draw defenders and provide him easier shots. He was also playing with a hand injury, so that being resolved should be worth a couple expected ticks in efficiency by itself.

Players becoming better shooters on their second contracts is incredibly common, and it's clear the org believes in Scottie's long term potential as a shooter. I think a return to his 2024 numbers is the goal for this season, and don't see any reason why it's out of reach

Honsetly? I think people still think Siakam "Held him back" and don't realize Siakam/FVV were very much connected to the best stretches of Scotties career.

Him simply playing with Quickley/Ingram (hopefully) full time should have immediate dividends in efficiency.

From 2021 - 2024

Scottie with Pascal off: 52.48 TS%
Scottie with Pascal on: 56.36 TS%

With BI we should see a similar jump in efficiency. But he won't be on the floor with BI 100% of the time so I think he'll settle in around 55 TS%.

This is a very good estimate, but I personally think Siakam is a better fit who actually plays PF to allow Barnes against smaller players, so I would not be surprised thst 55% would be playing with Ingram.

So how much would he bne scoring? Or how much usage do we want from him?

[tsherkin]

So how much would he bne scoring? Or how much usage do we want from him?

Less is more with scoring from Scottie. Let him focus on D and get his shots in transition and from the corner, off O-boards and the like.

[YogurtProducer]

He should be shooting 50%+ of his shots within 10 feet, if not more.

Not if he is mostly shooting those from 3-10 and performs as he did last year. Remember, Barnes has shot under 43% from 3-10 feet for two straight seasons right now. That isn't doing him any favors, and wouldn't be a huge thing to lean on going forward. And I have my doubts that he's going to be capable of significantly increasing his proportion inside the RA.

He also shot 50% from that range as a rookie, and shoots 70% at the rim.

I am not saying replace mid range shots with other shots - straight up eliminating those shots is what is going to help him

This is a completely broken exercise i admit - but Scottie if he stopped taking anything past 10 feet would have a 61TS%. Obviously it is not as simple as "stop taking jump shots".


If he puts up 17.5ppg on 50/33/76 it would require him to shoot 56% on 2's (9.2 2PA), 33% on 3's (3.6 3PA), and 76% on FT's (4.6FTA) - and end up at 59.0TS% which is higher than I originally put. I really don' think 56% on 2's is out of the range of outcomes. That is feasible on last years %'s by simply knocking the mid range down to 7-8% of his shots (so eliminate it), and getting to the rim on 60ish% of his shots (which again, he almost did as a rookie and sophomore).

Then we can add the unquantifiable. Barnes is without a doubt better today than he was 3-4 years ago. If we put him back into that year 1/2 role and let him play off Ingram/Quickley/Barrett/Jak would we see his efficiency skyrocket? I know you like to point to historical data but past performance in one role is not necessarily indicative of future performance in a new role. FWIW - Ingram will be the best offensive player Scottie has ever played with and also a better playmaker than any of our other high usage options we have ever had. Even if it is only 1 or 2 buckets a game, Scottie getting some easier baskets is going to make a big difference.

Furthermore - his 3 pointers this year hopefully are more in the flow of the offense (he took a lot of dumb c+s ones last year), and maybe if he focuses on just c+s 3's and not all different types it'll make a differnece.

[tsherkin]

He also shot 50% from that range as a rookie, and shoots 70% at the rim.

70% at the rim is about 1% better than league average, and there is a limit to how frequently he can get there.

So the 3.6 or so FGA/g he took there per game are good stuff, but there's only so much we can do with that unless he's able to get there more regularly, which is going to be a challenge unless we reduce his volume.

I am not saying replace mid range shots with other shots - straight up eliminating those shots is what is going to help him

Right, but I don't think that's realistic, especially since the franchise isn't going to buy in to the mindset I'd take with how to deploy Scottie. There's no way they're gonna pay $35 mil a year for a guy who can't be trusted with anything but shots at the rim.

If he puts up 17.5ppg on 50/33/76 it would require him to shoot 56% on 2's (9.2 2PA), 33% on 3's (3.6 3PA), and 76% on FT's (4.6FTA) - and end up at 59.0TS%

Minor quibble (probably irrelevant, but my OCD compels me), he'd have to shoot 51% overall to make those numbers work and would be at 17.0 ppg, but yes. It would, again, require a career-high from inside the arc and the second-best 3pt shooting season of his career.

It would ALSO require him to maintain .280+ FTr in a second season, with the lowest volume of shooting inside the arc of his career, which also seems unlikely. Of course, that lower volume does make the 2P% more likely attainable, to be fair, but now we start seeing trade-offs and variability.

He drops down to just shy of 13 FGA/g... but there isn't a lot in his catalog showing us improvement. His 2nd and 4th seasons look very similar, and he played 77 games in that one. Maybe he keeps up the alternating season thing and has a good year this year, but we do have to be cognizant of what we're asking and what's likely.

He saw improvement in his mid-range game last year. It's likely that the coaching staff will let him keep doing that, which is going to put a damper on what we can expect from him in terms of shot distribution. It's also less likely that he's the one who will see FGA reduction compared to someone like RJ, which means his rim proportion is probably not going to be much higher than his typical level, either. And then we're gambling that he'll have a better year from 3 than 30% or so, and he's shot 30.1% or less in 3 of his 4 seasons... and we're now leveraging 28 games worth of him shooting well in 23-24 to project his improvement as a 3pt shooter. Because he was at 26.3% from 3 in the New Year that season, and shot 5/15 in October.

getting to the rim on 60ish% of his shots (which again, he almost did as a rookie and sophomore).

Pardon? Scottie got to the RA 26.0% and 27.5% of the time in his first two seasons. Did I misunderstand your phrasing there? There's a 0% chance he's going to take 3/5s of his shots at the rim.

You raised the notion of historical data. Sure, cool, it's there. He's been an ass shooter for four years. He doesn't have elite burst. He has inconsistent aggression. He's never been seen as a good scoring option. He doesn't have an early-career arc which projects well for improvement of consequence.

[rapsincr]

26/9/7...

but we have to hire matt bonner as an asst coach.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

So how much would he bne scoring? Or how much usage do we want from him?

Less is more with scoring from Scottie. Let him focus on D and get his shots in transition and from the corner, off O-boards and the like.

I don’t disagree with this being how Scottie would be best used, but I’m skeptical that can work here as they’ve been moving heaven and earth to make this Scottie’s team. That sounds like the role he came into and rebelled against. This org already bending over for Scottie and him wanting to be the man, and most attention typically going to offensive players - I don’t see that path here.


For some reason out org thinks it’s better to overhype the sight of any promise, rather than appreciate those who proved it

[tsherkin]

I don’t disagree with this being how Scottie would be best used, but I’m skeptical that can work here as they’ve been moving heaven and earth to make this Scottie’s team. That sounds like the role he came into and rebelled against. This org already bending over for Scottie and him wanting to be the man, and most attention typically going to offensive players - I don’t see that path here.

Committing to a mistake just because you've been making it for a long time is stupid, though, which makes this a very frustrating thing to watch.

[OakleyDokely]

The moment they traded for Ingram, they acknowledged that this isn't Scottie's team, at least on offense.

[theonlyeastcoastrapsfan]

The moment they traded for Ingram, they acknowledged that this isn't Scottie's team, at least on offense.

As long as he’s able to do what ever he wants, it will be whatever he wants it to be. So far Darko has been a consistent Scottie apologist- which seems to me to be the opposite of what would be needed to have him reach his full potential.

Darko wants him shooting 20 3’s a game - and tells and has been caught lying to the media over holding Scottie accountable. Starts at the top though.

[tsherkin]

The moment they traded for Ingram, they acknowledged that this isn't Scottie's team, at least on offense.

That's the hope, yes.

But it isn't unthinkable for them to use him as a 15ish FGA/g second scoring option, which is what's bothering me the most about potential shot distribution.

[OakleyDokely]

I wouldn't worry about what hasn't happened yet.

Last season was an injured plagued, tanking season without consistent lineups so they let Barnes freestyle. Once you have guys like Ingram, IQ, Barrett all on the court, there will just be less shots for Barnes in general.

[Purple+Black]

The moment they traded for Ingram, they acknowledged that this isn't Scottie's team, at least on offense.

Interesting take, I think there's also a case that can be made for Ingram being able to create more opportunities for Scottie and that they complement echother perfectly on the offensive end. Scottie's off-the-dribble 3pt attempts should decrease, he should focus entirely on c&s and aim to be a 35-37% c&s shooter, if he get's there (which he already has done over a large sample size in season 3), it will mean a greater focus from him at finishing at the rim, which his physical tools are geared towards anyway. He can continue to create in the mid-range as all 1st/2nd options should.

Scottie + Ingram, in my opinion, is an excellent pairing to build your roster around as long as our medical staff can figure out a way to keep them healthy. We need a stretch big who can anchor the defence and a defensive, shooting point-guard+shooting-guard and we'd be looking at a fairly complete starting 5.

Gradey is a decent microwave off the bench and some of our other younger players would provide solid bench depth.

Quickley, Barrett, Poeltl are the trade-chips as far as I'm concerned. All that to say that if you surround Scottie with the right team, I believe his output and efficiency increase. We've seen enough seasons of Scottie to determine what kind of supporting cast he needs and where his focus should be.

[djsunyc]

I wouldn't worry about what hasn't happened yet.

bingo. we don't even know what the roster will look like next year. we are in the middle of a bunch of trade rumors! it's okay to take a breath!

[OakleyDokely]

I wouldn't worry about what hasn't happened yet.

bingo. we don't even know what the roster will look like next year. we are in the middle of a bunch of trade rumors! it's okay to take a breath!

I'm pretty certain Ingram will have the highest usage on most nights when he plays (if nothing major happens this offseason)

Then IQ, Barrett, Scottie will probably be close and it will depend on who has it going on any particular night. Some nights Scottie will be the 2nd option, some nights he might be 4th.