The East is WIDE OPEN next season

causal_fan · Post #81 » by **causal_fan** » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:29 pm

Yes the East is wide open next year but those injured players are returning the next year - I don't want the Raptors to "sell-out" and be a one year wonder - just keep building and the play of the team will tell the FO when it's ready to be a contender - don't try and for a contender next year as it's likely to negatively impact a longer term window of contention.

Post #82 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Jun 24, 2025 2:35 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a-study-on-3-point-shooting-should-we-change-how-we-contextualize-3-point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics

First, nice. Thanks for the link.

750 attempts is a baseline for when you can rule out the noise. Franz shot 630 3's in his first two years, so it is possible he was overachieving (And considering his entire body of work, it is likely he was overachieving).

So which sample do you want to get behind? The 631 where he shot well, or the 686 where he didn't? That becomes the question.

Now - his assisted % of 3's is decreasing year over year. His 36% years that was north of 80%, last two years have been 79% and 69%, so there is some hope if they get him off-ball more and on the catch and shoot, but as I said he also only shot 29% on c+s last year.

So really, I just think Franz is not a good shooter. He is closer to Scottie Barnes from 3 than he is a good shooter.

Yeah, I don't think he's secretly the second coming of Steph Curry, it's just that with two healthy seasons (2 or 3 missed games only), that's a sizeable chunk of him shooting competently... matched off against a sample barely any larger of him shooting poorly, with horrible passing support.

And remember, two years ago, he shot 40.6% on his C+S 3s, and 37.7% as a rookie. This season, he was also holding down his highest-usage season to date at 31%, and was injured, so you have to wonder if his legs were all the way in it. That was less true in 2024, of course, but there's a lot of noise around what he can and cannot do as a shooter.

To your broader point, he wasn't a stunner at Michigan, so it's likely that the answer probably isn't that he's an exceptional shooter, but his form is good, he's an excellent FT shooter, has a nice middie and two years worth of shooting well, so it isn't unreasonable to expect that he might be able to shoot 35 or 36% on around 4 per game.

We'll have to see.

deck · Post #83 » by **deck** » Tue Jun 24, 2025 3:30 pm

YogurtProducer · Post #84 » by **YogurtProducer** » Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:11 pm

tsherkin wrote:
750 attempts is a baseline for when you can rule out the noise. Franz shot 630 3's in his first two years, so it is possible he was overachieving (And considering his entire body of work, it is likely he was overachieving).

So which sample do you want to get behind? The 631 where he shot well, or the 686 where he didn't? That becomes the question.

The 1300 shots at 32% for his career is my sample I wanna get behind.

Realistically just purely off vibes, I think he is closer to 34/35% going forward, but that still isn't good enough when Suggs/Paolo also shoot 30% and they don't have a real stretch 5 either.

Post #85 » by **tsherkin** » Tue Jun 24, 2025 4:16 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:The 1300 shots at 32% for his career is my sample I wanna get behind.

Right, but I think there's enough context there to wonder how representative that is, was all I was suggesting.

Realistically just purely off vibes, I think he is closer to 34/35% going forward, but that still isn't good enough when Suggs/Paolo also shoot 30% and they don't have a real stretch 5 either.

Yeah, I mean no one is expecting them to be particularly good on offense without major change from Paolo and/or Wagner, even with Bane. But if Wagner is at 35% and Bane is healthy doing his thing, it'll make a pretty significant difference.

MoneyBall · Post #86 » by **MoneyBall** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 6:03 pm

Bumping this thread because of newish injuries to Trea, Giannis, and OG. I can't remember the last time the East was this open.

YogurtProducer · Post #87 » by **YogurtProducer** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 6:18 pm

YogurtProducer wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
750 attempts is a baseline for when you can rule out the noise. Franz shot 630 3's in his first two years, so it is possible he was overachieving (And considering his entire body of work, it is likely he was overachieving).

So which sample do you want to get behind? The 631 where he shot well, or the 686 where he didn't? That becomes the question.

The 1300 shots at 32% for his career is my sample I wanna get behind.

Realistically just purely off vibes, I think he is closer to 34/35% going forward, but that still isn't good enough when Suggs/Paolo also shoot 30% and they don't have a real stretch 5 either.

Just wanna say... 35% so far this year :lol:

I still think ORL is so freaking overrated. Guess who they have beat this year?
MIA
CHA
WAS
BOS
POR
NYK
BKN

yay?

YogurtProducer · Post #88 » by **YogurtProducer** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 6:21 pm

Honestly, the conferences are more evenly split than I think we gave credit to early in the off-season. The bottom 5 in both is a joke.

C_Money · Post #89 » by **C_Money** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 6:34 pm

This might be the deepest I’ve seen the east in all my years watching. 11 teams all look pretty good.

Psubs · Post #90 » by **Psubs** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 7:09 pm

C_Money wrote:This might be the deepest I’ve seen the east in all my years watching. 11 teams all look pretty good.

Figure that Cleveland will eventually earn the #1 spot with the #1 payroll, but they aren't that scary, since Mobley isn't that dominant.

This Christmas and deadline is the time to make a trade to go for it, even if just a trip to the Finals. Who knows, like the Blue Jays. The West has to beat each other up. :nod:

Mr. Perfect · Post #91 » by **Mr. Perfect** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 8:16 pm

East is garbage, no one's scared of the Knicks/Cavs/Pistons.

Do we have the contracts to trade for AD? Would be fun to make a finals push at least.

Raps in 4 · Post #92 » by **Raps in 4** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 8:24 pm

Mr. Perfect wrote:East is garbage, no one's scared of the Knicks/Cavs/Pistons.

Do we have the contracts to trade for AD? Would be fun to make a finals push at least.

No thanks, unless he can be had for scraps. I'd put the chances of AD being healthy for a playoff push at under 10%. He's also old and worn down with very little gas left in the tank.

If we're going to go big, I'd look at Booker (assuming the Suns stop winning, which I think they will). It would cost a small fortune, but that's a player that could push us into that Pacers/Knicks/Cavs tier, and allow us to stay there for at least a few years.

anotherhomer · Post #93 » by **anotherhomer** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 8:35 pm

i think raps should just focus on 1st round, maybe 2nd round

We are a decent team but lots of holes/roster construction issues

canz55 · Post #94 » by **canz55** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 11:12 pm

We have the pieces to make a big time trade.

As each week passes with our improved play the value of our pick diminishes.

Raps in 4 · Post #95 » by **Raps in 4** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 11:13 pm

canz55 wrote:We have the pieces to make a big time trade.

As each week passes with our improved play the value of our pick diminishes.

We have CMB and Dick, in addition to our picks.

canz55 · Post #96 » by **canz55** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 11:20 pm

Raps in 4 wrote:
canz55 wrote:We have the pieces to make a big time trade.

As each week passes with our improved play the value of our pick diminishes.

We have CMB and Dick, in addition to our picks.

It would suck to trade CMB but if you combined him with picks and a filler contract (RJ/JKW) it would likely get you something very valuable.

LLJ · Post #97 » by **LLJ** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 11:24 pm

C_Money wrote:This might be the deepest I’ve seen the east in all my years watching. 11 teams all look pretty good.

The word you're looking for is parity, not deepness. They all lack the top end talent needed to be serious title contenders. All the real superstars are out West now. It may be worse than it was in the 2000s. Nobody out West is scared of the Knicks, Cavs or Pistons. There's a world of difference between the East's top stars in Mitchell, Brunson and Cunningham and the West's top stars in Shai, Jokic, Doncic, Wemby, not to mention veterans like LeBron, Curry and KD as well.

The only real superstar in the East is Giannis, and his supporting cast is barely playoff worthy.

canz55 · Post #98 » by **canz55** » Tue Nov 18, 2025 11:32 pm

I don't know why the Pistons get all this disrespect. They're the best defensive team in the NBA and would finish top 4 in the west easily.

PushDaRock · Post #99 » by **PushDaRock** » Wed Nov 19, 2025 12:17 am

canz55 wrote:I don't know why the Pistons get all this disrespect. They're the best defensive team in the NBA and would finish top 4 in the west easily.

Easily?

Let's see, we have OKC, Denver, Houston, Lakers, San Antonio, Minnesota, Golden State. You think they easily finish in front of half those teams?

PushDaRock · Post #100 » by **PushDaRock** » Wed Nov 19, 2025 12:19 am

LLJ wrote:
C_Money wrote:This might be the deepest I’ve seen the east in all my years watching. 11 teams all look pretty good.

The word you're looking for is parity, not deepness. They all lack the top end talent needed to be serious title contenders. All the real superstars are out West now. It may be worse than it was in the 2000s. Nobody out West is scared of the Knicks, Cavs or Pistons. There's a world of difference between the East's top stars in Mitchell, Brunson and Cunningham and the West's top stars in Shai, Jokic, Doncic, Wemby, not to mention veterans like LeBron, Curry and KD as well.

The only real superstar in the East is Giannis, and his supporting cast is barely playoff worthy.

lol yeah it's not deep, the West is deep. Very likely whoever makes it out of the East gets curb stomped in the finals.