The East is WIDE OPEN next season

[causal_fan]

Yes the East is wide open next year but those injured players are returning the next year - I don't want the Raptors to "sell-out" and be a one year wonder - just keep building and the play of the team will tell the FO when it's ready to be a contender - don't try and for a contender next year as it's likely to negatively impact a longer term window of contention.

[tsherkin]

https://www.thestrick.land/strick/a-study-on-3-point-shooting-should-we-change-how-we-contextualize-3-point-defense-in-nba-advanced-stats-analytics

First, nice. Thanks for the link.

750 attempts is a baseline for when you can rule out the noise. Franz shot 630 3's in his first two years, so it is possible he was overachieving (And considering his entire body of work, it is likely he was overachieving).

So which sample do you want to get behind? The 631 where he shot well, or the 686 where he didn't? That becomes the question.

Now - his assisted % of 3's is decreasing year over year. His 36% years that was north of 80%, last two years have been 79% and 69%, so there is some hope if they get him off-ball more and on the catch and shoot, but as I said he also only shot 29% on c+s last year.

So really, I just think Franz is not a good shooter. He is closer to Scottie Barnes from 3 than he is a good shooter.

Yeah, I don't think he's secretly the second coming of Steph Curry, it's just that with two healthy seasons (2 or 3 missed games only), that's a sizeable chunk of him shooting competently... matched off against a sample barely any larger of him shooting poorly, with horrible passing support.

And remember, two years ago, he shot 40.6% on his C+S 3s, and 37.7% as a rookie. This season, he was also holding down his highest-usage season to date at 31%, and was injured, so you have to wonder if his legs were all the way in it. That was less true in 2024, of course, but there's a lot of noise around what he can and cannot do as a shooter.

To your broader point, he wasn't a stunner at Michigan, so it's likely that the answer probably isn't that he's an exceptional shooter, but his form is good, he's an excellent FT shooter, has a nice middie and two years worth of shooting well, so it isn't unreasonable to expect that he might be able to shoot 35 or 36% on around 4 per game.

We'll have to see.

[deck]

[YogurtProducer]

750 attempts is a baseline for when you can rule out the noise. Franz shot 630 3's in his first two years, so it is possible he was overachieving (And considering his entire body of work, it is likely he was overachieving).

So which sample do you want to get behind? The 631 where he shot well, or the 686 where he didn't? That becomes the question.

The 1300 shots at 32% for his career is my sample I wanna get behind.

Realistically just purely off vibes, I think he is closer to 34/35% going forward, but that still isn't good enough when Suggs/Paolo also shoot 30% and they don't have a real stretch 5 either.

[tsherkin]

The 1300 shots at 32% for his career is my sample I wanna get behind.

Right, but I think there's enough context there to wonder how representative that is, was all I was suggesting.

Realistically just purely off vibes, I think he is closer to 34/35% going forward, but that still isn't good enough when Suggs/Paolo also shoot 30% and they don't have a real stretch 5 either.

Yeah, I mean no one is expecting them to be particularly good on offense without major change from Paolo and/or Wagner, even with Bane. But if Wagner is at 35% and Bane is healthy doing his thing, it'll make a pretty significant difference.