Pacers Pick Tracking (Update: #19 officially)

[WeThe2019Champs]

Hope refs let Lakers win tonight.

[deeps6x]

Hope refs let Lakers win tonight.

LOL, 'let' the Lakers win. When do they ever 'not' gift them extra advantages up the wazoo?

[LoveMyRaps]

Yeah, let's just worry about the Pacers pick at this point.

Raps are locked into 6-7.

No hope for 5.

[LoveMyRaps]

What is JJJ doing???

Pass the damn ball hog you hog. You're 7/24 FFS.

[SpezNc]

It’s tight

Small two pts lead by Memphis. 51 seconds to go.

Crossing fingers.

Update : well now it’s tie

Update 2 : small two pts lead. 33 seconds to go

Update 3 : back tied

OT

I am rooting for Memphis but at least a Sacramento win is still useful to secure a pick in the teens.

[Tor_Raps]

Damnnn... Memphis came back eh. With Bane, they are gonna go blow by us.

[LoveMyRaps]

Not watching OT.
Hope to wake up to a Grizz win.

[WeThe2019Champs]

It's over, mem will lose

[SpezNc]

Knicks

Knicks are already ahead of the Pacers... we need the Warriors to pass the Pacers too lol.

The more the Pacers move up in the lottery, the greater the chance of complete disaster. 6th in the east, or where they are right now in the end is just fine.

Yeah! Losing the pick because they won the lottery and we give up pick 7 to SA would be a disaster of epic proportion from a PR standpoint.

Obviously I want the pick as high as possible I prefer securing a pick in the teams rather than hope for a the lottery pick or the home run (pick #4)

Technically there is a small outside change that we can pick #1 and #4. But it so slim and too risky.

I am 100% ok with pick #15 to #19.

[SpezNc]

It's over, mem will lose

Lol 4 basket back to back to back to back from Malik Monk

Sacramento in the driving seat

At least this help securing a pick in the teens.

[tecumseh18]

I think we can agree that the Raptors will not win another game for the rest of the season. I don't expect RJ to return. Meanwhile, Memphis, now with JJJ and Bane, play the Pistons twice and the Spurs twice (along with a bunch of ridiculously good WC teams).

So it's basically over. Raptors will secure 6th spot in advance of the lottery. Done deal. All we have to do is cheer on the Lakers, Heat, Suns, Kings, Mavs and Sixers, while projecting negative energy onto the Pacers. Ideally, the Heat (or Sixers with Embiid back) will host the play-in against the Pacers, they lose, then lose again to the suddenly hot Hawks with Trae back in the lineup. Or to the Bulls, when Diar's screaming actively prevents Pascal from making his FTs. Again.

[Coco Costanza]

I think we can agree that the Raptors will not win another game for the rest of the season. I don't expect RJ to return. Meanwhile, Memphis, now with JJJ and Bane, play the Pistons twice and the Spurs twice (along with a bunch of ridiculously good WC teams).

So it's basically over. Raptors will secure 6th spot in advance of the lottery. Done deal.

Memphis just seem too bad to not out tank us.

[SpezNc]

Current situation with 13 to 15 games left to plays.

Without considering lottery or any play-in / playoffs movement

Pacers pick = #16

Within 4 GB :

Range from #12 Chicago (-4) to #23 N-O (+4)

Within 3 GB :

Range from #13 Golden State (-2) to #21 Orlando (+2.5)

Within 2 GB

Range from #13 Golden State (-2) to #20 Sacramento (+2)

Within 1 GB

Range from #14 Lakers (-1) to #17 Philly (+ 0.5)

Within 0.5 GB

Range from #15 Miami (- 0.5) to #17 Philly (+ 0.5)

***

I consider within 2 GB the most important range. This range is not as volatile but in the same time a team can catch 2 games in a week if trending in opposite direction

Within 4 games is a reach. It’s mathematically very possible in the same time it’s unusual to see such movements

[OAKLEY_2]

Yeah, let's just worry about the Pacers pick at this point.

Raps are locked into 6-7.

No hope for 5.

If Grizz or Raps go to the lotto balls at 6 then 4 or 5 is possible. Interesting thing about the 15 game playoff against the Grizzlies.if they win number 6 sweeps we get our pick next year. Could be late lotto though. If we win this suck fest Grizz still get the 7th. So they have far less to "lose" than we do. Raps can play 10 days, 2 ways and recently signed end of benchers.

[WuTang_OG]

Thank u clevland. Back to 16

[billy_hoyle]

Yeah, let's just worry about the Pacers pick at this point.

Raps are locked into 6-7.

No hope for 5.

If Grizz or Raps go to the lotto balls at 6 then 4 or 5 is possible. Interesting thing about the 15 game playoff against the Grizzlies.if they win number 6 sweeps we get our pick next year. Could be late lotto though. If we win this suck fest Grizz still get the 7th. So they have far less to "lose" than we do. Raps can play 10 days, 2 ways and recently signed end of benchers.

A few things
1. Original poster was taking about catching 5th for worst record, which is basically impossible, we won't catch the Blazers.

2. The 6th worse record can't win the 5th pick in the lottery. Only the bottom 4 picks are raffled. So it's jump up into the top 4, stay where you are (at 6), or slide down if someone below jumps up.

3. I agree with you. I think the Grizz actually owning their pick with no conditions matters here. I don't think they are incentivized enough to out tank us. What do they really care about 1 spot? They just got a couple high end starters back into their lineup. They probably want to win a few just to build some good vibes for next season where they will be trying for home court with Morant healthy

[anotherhomer]

Yeah, let's just worry about the Pacers pick at this point.

Raps are locked into 6-7.

No hope for 5.

If Grizz or Raps go to the lotto balls at 6 then 4 or 5 is possible. Interesting thing about the 15 game playoff against the Grizzlies.if they win number 6 sweeps we get our pick next year. Could be late lotto though. If we win this suck fest Grizz still get the 7th. So they have far less to "lose" than we do. Raps can play 10 days, 2 ways and recently signed end of benchers.

A few things
1. Original poster was taking about catching 5th for worst record, which is basically impossible, we won't catch the Blazers.

2. The 6th worse record can't win the 5th pick in the lottery. Only the bottom 4 picks are raffled. So it's jump up into the top 4, stay where you are (at 6), or slide down if someone below jumps up.

3. I agree with you. I think the Grizz actually owning their pick with no conditions matters here. I don't think they are incentivized enough to out tank us. What do they really care about 1 spot? They just got a couple high end starters back into their lineup. They probably want to win a few just to build some good vibes for next season where they will be trying for home court with Morant healthy

5th is a long shot

[And1Skip]

If Grizz or Raps go to the lotto balls at 6 then 4 or 5 is possible. Interesting thing about the 15 game playoff against the Grizzlies.if they win number 6 sweeps we get our pick next year. Could be late lotto though. If we win this suck fest Grizz still get the 7th. So they have far less to "lose" than we do. Raps can play 10 days, 2 ways and recently signed end of benchers.

A few things
1. Original poster was taking about catching 5th for worst record, which is basically impossible, we won't catch the Blazers.

2. The 6th worse record can't win the 5th pick in the lottery. Only the bottom 4 picks are raffled. So it's jump up into the top 4, stay where you are (at 6), or slide down if someone below jumps up.

3. I agree with you. I think the Grizz actually owning their pick with no conditions matters here. I don't think they are incentivized enough to out tank us. What do they really care about 1 spot? They just got a couple high end starters back into their lineup. They probably want to win a few just to build some good vibes for next season where they will be trying for home court with Morant healthy

5th is a long shot

5th pick is a long shot because (1) Portland is 4 games back and its absolutely impossible for 2 tanking teams (or aka very bad teams) to go a such a run to make up 4 games with 14 games remaining. and (2) The team with the 5th worst record has only a 2.2% chance to stay at the #5 pick after the lottery (that position has a 55.6% chance to move back).

The team with the highest chance to get the 5th pick is actually the worst team in the league (48% chance), and that happened last year with Detroit.

[Psubs]

I think we can agree that the Raptors will not win another game for the rest of the season. I don't expect RJ to return. Meanwhile, Memphis, now with JJJ and Bane, play the Pistons twice and the Spurs twice (along with a bunch of ridiculously good WC teams).

So it's basically over. Raptors will secure 6th spot in advance of the lottery. Done deal.

Memphis just seem too bad to not out tank us.

They have a coach that elevates their players. GG Jackson may emerge!

[YogurtProducer]

A few things
1. Original poster was taking about catching 5th for worst record, which is basically impossible, we won't catch the Blazers.

2. The 6th worse record can't win the 5th pick in the lottery. Only the bottom 4 picks are raffled. So it's jump up into the top 4, stay where you are (at 6), or slide down if someone below jumps up.

3. I agree with you. I think the Grizz actually owning their pick with no conditions matters here. I don't think they are incentivized enough to out tank us. What do they really care about 1 spot? They just got a couple high end starters back into their lineup. They probably want to win a few just to build some good vibes for next season where they will be trying for home court with Morant healthy

5th is a long shot

5th pick is a long shot because (1) Portland is 4 games back and its absolutely impossible for 2 tanking teams (or aka very bad teams) to go a such a run to make up 4 games with 14 games remaining. and (2) The team with the 5th worst record has only a 2.2% chance to stay at the #5 pick after the lottery (that position has a 55.6% chance to move back).

The team with the highest chance to get the 5th pick is actually the worst team in the league (48% chance), and that happened last year with Detroit.

I dont think anyone necessarily wants pick 5, but the 5th best odds significantly increases our ability to keep the pick.