2023 Draft Discussion Part III

[WuTang_CMB]

If Raps lose play in and OKC lose ... we get 12th pick
If Raps lose play in and OKC win .. we get 11th pick

[planetmars]

If Raps lose play in and OKC lose ... we get 12th pick
If Raps lose play in and OKC win .. we get 11th pick

I think these are the scenarios:

Raptors lose to the Bulls, Bulls lose in round 2, OKC loses in play-in: Get the 13th pick.
Raptors lose to the Bulls, Bulls beat Miami in round 2, OKC loses in play-in: Get the 12th pick.
Raptors lose to the Bulls, Bulls beat Atlanta in round 2, OKC loses in play-in: Get coin flip for 12th/13th with Atlanta.

Raptors lose to the Bulls, Bulls lose in round 2, OKC wins play-in: Get the 12th pick.
Raptors lose to the Bulls, Bulls beat Miami in round 2, OKC wins play-in: Get the 11th pick.
Raptors lose to the Bulls, Bulls beat Atlanta in round 2, OKC wins in play-in: Get coin flip for 11th/12th with Atlanta.

Raptors beat the Bulls, lose in round 2, OKC loses in play-in: Get the 13th pick.
Raptors beat the Bulls, lose in round 2, OKC wins play-in: Get the 12th pick.
Raptors beat the Bulls, and win in round 2, OKC loses in play-in: Get the 15th pick and out of the lottery.
Raptors beat the Bulls, and win in round 2, OKC wins play-in: Get the 16th pick and out of the lottery.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

We still have a scenario where we can get a 1.8% chance at getting Wembanyama and 8% chance at selection in the top 4. Beautiful.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Poeltl was a nice addition, but man, I hope shooters like Jared McCain or Andrej Stojakovic aren’t available when that pick comes up in 2024 because it’s going to cut deep.

[WuTang_CMB]

Love me that foot work. the shots off the catch to always sqaure up are tough to do

Watch on YouTube

[ATLTimekeeper]

Don't like Bufkin much. He's a lesser shooter and not as athletic as the comparisons people here are giving him (Poole, Simons, Quickley). He might be crafty but I think he's going to struggle with the size and athleticism in the league. Shooting guard Cam Payne is my comp. I wouldn't be very satisfied with the draft if he's all we ended up with.

If we have no shot at Gradey and Cason I would rather take a chance on guys like George/Hawkins/Whitehead. Even trade back for a 2nd pick and get something like Max Lewis and Sasser.

Last 18 games of CBB he averaged

15 points
5 reb
3 ast
1 steal
0.6 blocks

50/39/88 with a 59TS%.

Not sure between his FT% and his 3P% what makes him a lesser shooter. He has shown on tape to be confident in spot ups and off the dribble in PnRs as well (dude is also 19 years old). This is not to mention he shots 70% at the rim which is ELITE

No idea why any of the other guys you listed would be ahead of him. George has a similar build but literally has worse stats in all areas, Hawkins is an elite shooter but can't go left and has no inbetween game, Whitehead hasn't shown anything and is all potential after coming back from injury. He's a guy you take with a late first to play 8th man to see what he has.

It's mostly an eye test thing combined with his 22% 3pt freshman season. He's not gonna shoot 70 at the rim in the NBA with his skinny frame. The last thing I saw him do was throw the ball off his 7 footers back at half court with 2 seconds left in a conference tournament game down 2 points.

I don't like his upside, I would swing for the fences on the other guys mentioned before drafting Bufkin to check if he's any better than Malachi. The other 3 guys are all more natural shooters, and more athletic. You can go to the numbers to tell me George isn't as good a shooter but when I watch him, he's the guy I would rather develop.

I think he's a meh prospect. Awesome rim % is offset by low midrange shooting and weak FTr and lowish p/40, to go along with a thin frame and below average shooting guard size. Obviously he can get better as an inbetween scorer, but the Raptors are going to have a late lotto pick and can do better than a guy that projects as bench punch.

[Bruin]

Poeltl was a nice addition, but man, I hope shooters like Jared McCain or Andrej Stojakovic aren’t available when that pick comes up in 2024 because it’s going to cut deep.

Man Andrej would be a real nice addition to this team…sucks Masai made such a dumb move. Any good GM should’ve been able to put a lotto protection on that pick

[UnbelievablyRAW]

Last 18 games of CBB he averaged

15 points
5 reb
3 ast
1 steal
0.6 blocks

50/39/88 with a 59TS%.

Not sure between his FT% and his 3P% what makes him a lesser shooter. He has shown on tape to be confident in spot ups and off the dribble in PnRs as well (dude is also 19 years old). This is not to mention he shots 70% at the rim which is ELITE

No idea why any of the other guys you listed would be ahead of him. George has a similar build but literally has worse stats in all areas, Hawkins is an elite shooter but can't go left and has no inbetween game, Whitehead hasn't shown anything and is all potential after coming back from injury. He's a guy you take with a late first to play 8th man to see what he has.

It's mostly an eye test thing combined with his 22% 3pt freshman season. He's not gonna shoot 70 at the rim in the NBA with his skinny frame. The last thing I saw him do was throw the ball off his 7 footers back at half court with 2 seconds left in a conference tournament game down 2 points.

I don't like his upside, I would swing for the fences on the other guys mentioned before drafting Bufkin to check if he's any better than Malachi. The other 3 guys are all more natural shooters, and more athletic. You can go to the numbers to tell me George isn't as good a shooter but when I watch him, he's the guy I would rather develop.

I think he's a meh prospect. Awesome rim % is offset by low midrange shooting and weak FTr and lowish p/40, to go along with a thin frame and below average shooting guard size. Obviously he can get better as an inbetween scorer, but the Raptors are going to have a late lotto pick and can do better than a guy that projects as bench punch.

I don't think so. In the 14+ range you aren't gonna get some elite prospect. The remaining ones are either much worse offensively but have "potential" due to their physical attributes or they're just good at 1 thing like Hawkins or Brice. The other remaining guards like JHS or Colby aren't as good or older. Who would you suggest in the 12-15 range?

[Psubs]

Watch on YouTube

Could he be like Chris Andersen 2.0? Give him a camp invite. Nice lob threat at 6'10.

[Yallbecrazy]

Just to add to the GG Jackson/ Nick Smith/ JHS hate:

Remember Joshua Primo? He was someone people didn't think was good, but might have potential due to his age. Some called him the worst player taken in the first round. He was really bad early on, but started to show flashes before he was dismissed from the team.
Despite being called incredibly raw and bad at basketball he still had a college BPM of 3.1.

JHS and Nick Smith's was 0.7 this past year, GG Jackson -0.1.
Even if they progress really well like Primo was, they're still going to be terrible NBA players for a couple seasons at least.

These guys are pretty much a lock to be terrible throughout their rookie deals and need to hit their 80th or 90th+ percentile outcome to get a 2nd contract in the league, let alone be good.

[Psubs]

Just to add to the GG Jackson/ Nick Smith/ JHS hate:

Remember Joshua Primo? He was someone people didn't think was good, but might have potential due to his age. Some called him the worst player taken in the first round. He was really bad early on, but started to show flashes before he was dismissed from the team.
Despite being called incredibly raw and bad at basketball he still had a college BPM of 3.1.

JHS and Nick Smith's was 0.7 this past year, GG Jackson -0.1.
Even if they progress really well like Primo was, they're still going to be terrible NBA players for a couple seasons at least.

These guys are pretty much a lock to be terrible throughout their rookie deals and need to hit their 80th or 90th+ percentile outcome to get a 2nd contract in the league, let alone be good.

I agree, they really had no impact compared to other players that were subbed on. The eye test should be used to verify the stats, not the other way around.

[Yallbecrazy]

Numbers are per 40 on top, and advanced stats below. Both are 6'5, top guy listed @ 195, bottom guy 185.

Hawkins is 2nd, Strength of schedule is 6.88 in year 1 and 8.51 in year 2

Top guy's SOS is 10.29 and is:

Spoiler:

Herro

[dozo]

Just to add to the GG Jackson/ Nick Smith/ JHS hate:

Remember Joshua Primo? He was someone people didn't think was good, but might have potential due to his age. Some called him the worst player taken in the first round. He was really bad early on, but started to show flashes before he was dismissed from the team.
Despite being called incredibly raw and bad at basketball he still had a college BPM of 3.1.

JHS and Nick Smith's was 0.7 this past year, GG Jackson -0.1.
Even if they progress really well like Primo was, they're still going to be terrible NBA players for a couple seasons at least.

These guys are pretty much a lock to be terrible throughout their rookie deals and need to hit their 80th or 90th+ percentile outcome to get a 2nd contract in the league, let alone be good.

I agree, they really had no impact compared to other players that were subbed on. The eye test should be used to verify the stats, not the other way around.

Mgmt should still workout NSJr and JHS. Here is a list of prospects mgmt should consider with a pick in the teens.

George
Hawkins
Whitehead
Bufkin
JHS
Rupert
Howard
NS Jr
Coulibaly
Colby Jones
Sensabaugh
Podziemski
Cissoko
Max Lewis

[S ID]

Keyonte George

[Psubs]

Numbers are per 40 on top, and advanced stats below. Both are 6'5, top guy listed @ 195, bottom guy 185.

Hawkins is 2nd, Strength of schedule is 6.88 in year 1 and 8.51 in year 2

Top guy's SOS is 10.29 and is:

Spoiler:

Herro

You can see the first guy likely finishes at the rim a lot more so assume that his handles and first step are better and layup package is better. Hawkins may be Rip Hamilton with 3pt range though.

[dozo]

Read on Twitter

Another prospect that I would draft in the 2nd round.

[ATLTimekeeper]

It's mostly an eye test thing combined with his 22% 3pt freshman season. He's not gonna shoot 70 at the rim in the NBA with his skinny frame. The last thing I saw him do was throw the ball off his 7 footers back at half court with 2 seconds left in a conference tournament game down 2 points.

I don't like his upside, I would swing for the fences on the other guys mentioned before drafting Bufkin to check if he's any better than Malachi. The other 3 guys are all more natural shooters, and more athletic. You can go to the numbers to tell me George isn't as good a shooter but when I watch him, he's the guy I would rather develop.

I think he's a meh prospect. Awesome rim % is offset by low midrange shooting and weak FTr and lowish p/40, to go along with a thin frame and below average shooting guard size. Obviously he can get better as an inbetween scorer, but the Raptors are going to have a late lotto pick and can do better than a guy that projects as bench punch.

I don't think so. In the 14+ range you aren't gonna get some elite prospect. The remaining ones are either much worse offensively but have "potential" due to their physical attributes or they're just good at 1 thing like Hawkins or Brice. The other remaining guards like JHS or Colby aren't as good or older. Who would you suggest in the 12-15 range?

I already think it's a bad draft for guards. If I'm drafting for a bench guard I'd probably take Podziemski or Sasser, but I think there will be better prospects at 14. The goal should be above average starter with star potential.

[Yallbecrazy]

Numbers are per 40 on top, and advanced stats below. Both are 6'5, top guy listed @ 195, bottom guy 185.

Hawkins is 2nd, Strength of schedule is 6.88 in year 1 and 8.51 in year 2

Top guy's SOS is 10.29 and is:

Spoiler:

Herro

You can see the first guy likely finishes at the rim a lot more so assume that his handles and first step are better and layup package is better. Hawkins may be Rip Hamilton with 3pt range though.

Comparing Hawkins to Herro it appears Hawkins has much more volume from 3 and can come off screens and fire at a higher rate. He probably can get his shot off much faster too, that being said he's inferior in every other way other than blocks (still poor) and offensive rebounding ( mediocre).
Once forced to put the ball on the floor Hawkins struggles with very few assists and anywhere inside the 3pt arc. He's also older and played against worse competition.

If you don't like Herro's defense, Hawkins projects to be significantly worse.

[Ell Curry]

https://theathletic.com/4382121/2023/04/06/bobi-klintman-nba-draft/

I'd never heard of this kid but: 6'10, grew up playing soccer and can hit the 3 and pass. Seems unlikely he goes as high as our pick, but if we trade down or end up with a late first or early 2nd, it's easy to hear his name being called and everyone going "what?", right?

[DreamTeam09]

Hawkins seems like a natural fit with upside for us around our range