Official Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Fairview4Life]

This thread about Arizona is from a couple days ago, but is more broadly applicable too:

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[EH15]

This thread about Arizona is from a couple days ago, but is more broadly applicable too:

Read on Twitter

What I've noticed is the spread takes about 6 weeks to really take off in terms of hospitalization uptick. I guess that's about how long it takes for community spread to reach a significant portion of the vulnerable. Vegas end of July is a place to look out for. Vegas just seems like the perfect place for this. Indoors, loud, drunk, close proximity, AC always on. Will be interesting how they fare at the end of July.

[Kevin Willis]

Arizona is a state to keep an eye on. Since they reopened almost a month ago, they've gone nowhere but up in terms of cases/hospitalizations. Now their hospitals are almost out of beds and health officials are begging its citizens to wear a mask.

What about the number of tests administered during these time frames?

On average, how many daily/weekly tests were being conducted in the state of Arizona 60 or 90 days ago? On average, how many daily/weekly tests have been conducted during the last 30 days?

Should you wish to know them, it's not that difficult to find the answers:

"The ADHS Monday report states 150,241 tests have been done in Arizona with 6.7% of those coming back positive."

https://www.verdenews.com/news/2020/may/11/arizona-covid-19-positive-test-results-now-67/
Originally Published: May 11, 2020 10:01 a.m.

"As of Sunday, June 7, the Arizona Department of Health Services reported 26,889 cases of COVID-19 and 1,044 deaths in the state. It said 393,246 tests for COVID-19 had been completed as of Sunday in public and private labs in Arizona, for a positive test rate of just over 6.8%."

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2020/06/05/covid19-in-arizona-june-5/
June 5, 2020 | Updated: Sunday, June 7, 10 a.m.

Since testing was started until May 11:

150,241 tests administered
11,380 positive tests
11,380/150,241 = 7.5 % of those who are tested, tested positive for covid-19

Not sure how the ADHS calculated this number as 6.7%, but the math says 7.5% of those tested, tested positive for covid-19.

Since testing was started until June 7:

393,246 tests administered
26,889 positive tests
26,889/393,246 = 6.8 % of those who are tested, tested positive for covid-19

Number of tests between May 11 and June 7:

393,246 - 150,241 = 243,005
26,889 - 11,380 = 15,509

243,005 tests administered
15,509 positive tests
15,509/243,005 = 6.4 % of those who are tested, tested positive for covid-19

More tests were administered. A lot more tests. Almost double the number of tests since testing began were conducted between May 11 and Jun 7.

The percentage of positive tests DID NOT INCREASE by a statistically significant amount between these two time frames.

To the contrary, the overall percentage of positive tests has actually decreased. Compared to period of time when testing began until May 11 (7.5%), the overall percentage of positive tests is now 6.8%.

Even though almost 2 times as many tests were administered between the period of May 11-June 7 the percentage of people testing positive fell by a percentage point to 6.4%, causing the overall percentage of positive tests to drop to 6.8% - the lowest point since testing began.

If the percentage of those who tested positive has dropped despite twice as many tests being administered to achieve the number of reported cases/hospitalizations, how does that indicate the virus is spreading more rapidly than compared to the past?

How does that indicate the lockdown measures should be reinstated because their removal has been unsuccessful?

Would health officials be forced to beg Arizona resident to wear a mask if they didn't test twice as many people during the last 30 days?

Would health officials be forced to beg Arizona residents to wear a mask if the media were reporting the number of tests and drop in the overall percentage of positive tests accurately?

You sort of answered your own question - if more people are being tested and the numbers are not going down then you shouldn't open up until it does go down. Contrast that with Ontario which is still on some form of lockdown where not only is there increased testing, the numbers are going down.

I do think a metric that can be used is percentage contracted from tested. If that number goes down it's more of a 'real' improvement.

[Lord_Zedd]

Arizona is a state to keep an eye on. Since they reopened almost a month ago, they've gone nowhere but up in terms of cases/hospitalizations. Now their hospitals are almost out of beds and health officials are begging its citizens to wear a mask.

What about the number of tests administered during these time frames?

On average, how many daily/weekly tests were being conducted in the state of Arizona 60 or 90 days ago? On average, how many daily/weekly tests have been conducted during the last 30 days?

Should you wish to know them, it's not that difficult to find the answers:

"The ADHS Monday report states 150,241 tests have been done in Arizona with 6.7% of those coming back positive."

https://www.verdenews.com/news/2020/may/11/arizona-covid-19-positive-test-results-now-67/
Originally Published: May 11, 2020 10:01 a.m.

"As of Sunday, June 7, the Arizona Department of Health Services reported 26,889 cases of COVID-19 and 1,044 deaths in the state. It said 393,246 tests for COVID-19 had been completed as of Sunday in public and private labs in Arizona, for a positive test rate of just over 6.8%."

https://cronkitenews.azpbs.org/2020/06/05/covid19-in-arizona-june-5/
June 5, 2020 | Updated: Sunday, June 7, 10 a.m.

Since testing was started until May 11:

150,241 tests administered
11,380 positive tests
11,380/150,241 = 7.5 % of those who are tested, tested positive for covid-19

Not sure how the ADHS calculated this number as 6.7%, but the math says 7.5% of those tested, tested positive for covid-19.

Since testing was started until June 7:

393,246 tests administered
26,889 positive tests
26,889/393,246 = 6.8 % of those who are tested, tested positive for covid-19

Number of tests between May 11 and June 7:

393,246 - 150,241 = 243,005
26,889 - 11,380 = 15,509

243,005 tests administered
15,509 positive tests
15,509/243,005 = 6.4 % of those who are tested, tested positive for covid-19

More tests were administered. A lot more tests. Almost double the number of tests since testing began were conducted between May 11 and Jun 7.

The percentage of positive tests DID NOT INCREASE by a statistically significant amount between these two time frames.

To the contrary, the overall percentage of positive tests has actually decreased. Compared to period of time when testing began until May 11 (7.5%), the overall percentage of positive tests is now 6.8%.

Even though almost 2 times as many tests were administered between the period of May 11-June 7 the percentage of people testing positive fell by a percentage point to 6.4%, causing the overall percentage of positive tests to drop to 6.8% - the lowest point since testing began.

If the percentage of those who tested positive has dropped despite twice as many tests being administered to achieve the number of reported cases/hospitalizations, how does that indicate the virus is spreading more rapidly than compared to the past?

How does that indicate the lockdown measures should be reinstated because their removal has been unsuccessful?

Would health officials be forced to beg Arizona resident to wear a mask if they didn't test twice as many people during the last 30 days?

Would health officials be forced to beg Arizona residents to wear a mask if the media were reporting the number of tests and drop in the overall percentage of positive tests accurately?

The point is, the hospitals are starting to hit capacity. ICU rates just went up another 3% today bringing that total to 81% and Hospital beds are at 83%. They've already placed elective surgeries on hold yet again..... If something simple like wearing a mask helps reduce the rate of infection and hospital admission, sure?

You can find all your questions answered here, which is straight out of Arizona Department of Health.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

[Fairview4Life]

Wear your mask!
Edit: Mask study was bad!

Read on Twitter

[Logicbro]

I don't know why the u.s. uses total positive rate. It's meaningless. Ok so 6.7 percent of total tests came back positive , what they really should look at is the last 7 day positive rate. They are basing the opening on total tests which is not an accurate indicator of anything of relevance.

[dohboy_24]

You sort of answered your own question - if more people are being tested and the numbers are not going down then you shouldn't open up until it does go down.

Is that what the numbers are saying in Arizona?

Since testing was started (Mar 2) until May 11 (70 days): 150,241 tests administered, 11,380 positive tests, 7.5 % tested positive for covid-19

Testing period between May 11 and June 7 (28 days): 243,005 tests administered, 15,509 positive tests, 6.4 % tested positive for covid-19.

Since testing was started (Mar 2) until June 7 (98 days): 393,246 tests administered, 26,889 positive test, 6.8 % tested positive for covid-19.

During the 28 day period between May 11 and June 7, the positive test rate in Arizona was 6.4%, a drop of 1.1% compared to the positive test rate between Mar 2 and May 11.

Despite more people being tested, the numbers are going down. The only way the numbers can be reported as "going up", "getting worse" or "increasing" is to report the raw number of cases/hospitalizations.

As shown above, though, that number is directly influenced by the number of tests so it shouldn't be a surprise to find the number of cases have increased as the number of tests have increased. What matters is the relative increase.

Compared to Mar 2 to May 11, the number of tests administered in Arizona increased by 161.7% from 150,241 to 393,246 between May 11 and June 7. Compared to Mar 2 to May 11, the number of positive tests in Arizona increased by 136.3% from 150,241 to 393,246 between May 11 and June 7.

While both increased, the number of positive tests increased by 25.4% less than the number of tests administered. As a result, it takes 25.4% more tests today to produce 100 positive results than it did before May 11.

What is important to note and an indication of overall improvements being made: The number of positive tests have not increased as much as the number of tests themselves.

The above numbers are a positive sign, not an indication the restrictions being lifted haven't been effective or should be limited again because "cases are going up" and are "on the rise" because we're "being too lenient" with the restrictions.

[dohboy_24]

The point is, the hospitals are starting to hit capacity. ICU rates just went up another 3% today bringing that total to 81% and Hospital beds are at 83%. They've already placed elective surgeries on hold yet again..... If something simple like wearing a mask helps reduce the rate of infection and hospital admission, sure?

I'm not disputing whether the hospitals are close to capacity or whether the number of cases/hospitalizations is increasing. The question is why.

Are they close to capacity because the virus has become more contagious/deadly or because the number of tests administered during the past 28 days has increased?

[Kevin Willis]

You sort of answered your own question - if more people are being tested and the numbers are not going down then you shouldn't open up until it does go down.

Is that what the numbers are saying in Arizona?

Since testing was started (Mar 2) until May 11 (70 days): 150,241 tests administered, 11,380 positive tests, 7.5 % tested positive for covid-19

Testing period between May 11 and June 7 (28 days): 243,005 tests administered, 15,509 positive tests, 6.4 % tested positive for covid-19.

Since testing was started (Mar 2) until June 7 (98 days): 393,246 tests administered, 26,889 positive test, 6.8 % tested positive for covid-19.

During the 28 day period between May 11 and June 7, the positive test rate in Arizona was 6.4%, a drop of 1.1% compared to the positive test rate between Mar 2 and May 11.

Despite more people being tested, the numbers are going down. The only way the numbers can be reported as "going up", "getting worse" or "increasing" is to report the raw number of cases/hospitalizations.

As shown above, though, that number is directly influenced by the number of tests so it shouldn't be a surprise to find the number of cases have increased as the number of tests have increased. What matters is the relative increase.

Compared to Mar 2 to May 11, the number of tests administered in Arizona increased by 161.7% from 150,241 to 393,246 between May 11 and June 7. Compared to Mar 2 to May 11, the number of positive tests in Arizona increased by 136.3% from 150,241 to 393,246 between May 11 and June 7.

While both increased, the number of positive tests increased by 25.4% less than the number of tests administered. As a result, it takes 25.4% more tests today to produce 100 positive results than it did before May 11.

What is important to note and an indication of overall improvements being made: The number of positive tests have not increased as much as the number of tests themselves.

The above numbers are a positive sign, not an indication the restrictions being lifted haven't been effective or should be limited again because "cases are going up" and are "on the rise" because we're "being too lenient" with the restrictions.

Why are you arguing with me - I am not disagreeing with you about postive test rate. I said the number of tests done are not as important as positive test rate. It didn't go down enough and now Arizona meeting hospital capacity. Maybe I didn't explain it clearly??

The above numbers are NOT a positive sign though. You know what's a positive sign it went down to 3%. You know what's a positive sign - Canada increasing their testing and still getting less cases. I don't think there is an argument that can be made that California and India did not drop the ball. I haven't been following Arizona but I can't see any argument that can suggest Canada did the wrong thing by sticking to the lockdown longer. Look I will go down your path though and put some emphasis on the number tested (to be clear I do not, I look at rate as more important). Wouldn't it be foolish to not wait until they hit a certain threshold of people tested before evaluating the lockdown? Then you wouldn't have to account for anything like calculating 25% more tests to get to 100 because any decisions based on previous numbers would not give a true picture. For instance, let's say the initial testing was done disproportionately to people who can afford testing and are at lower risk(or vica versa - irrelevant). Maybe wait until all demographics are covered. After a baseline is established look at the rate in 7-14 day incrementals to see if improvements are being made and then make a decision? Isn't that better? Canada did the right thing by being cautious and the curve is so much better, we saved lives. Proud of our country, even though there are still people out there who don't practise social distancing.

[Kevin Willis]

The point is, the hospitals are starting to hit capacity. ICU rates just went up another 3% today bringing that total to 81% and Hospital beds are at 83%. They've already placed elective surgeries on hold yet again..... If something simple like wearing a mask helps reduce the rate of infection and hospital admission, sure?

I'm not disputing whether the hospitals are close to capacity or whether the number of cases/hospitalizations is increasing. The question is why.

Are they close to capacity because the virus has become more contagious/deadly or because the number of tests administered during the past 28 days has increased?

They are close to capacity because more people are sick. The dominant strain in Arizona is L which comes from Europe and is a little more aggressive than S. They've known this for a couple of months now. Also there is no correlation with testing and hospital admission. People go to the hospital because they're sick, not because they took the test. Also many people who take the test maybe be positive and asymptomatic. They will not go to the hospital but self-quarantine.

[Logicbro]

2600 cases in Florida, no bubble will stop that kind of spread. Canada is the only way forward

[mtcan]

2600 cases in Florida, no bubble will stop that kind of spread. Canada is the only way forward

Yukon/Northwest Territories/Nunavut is the ultimate bubble.

No night life (no night at all during the summer months), no outside temptations, no massive population with the risk of transmission into the bubble.

[NinjaBro]

We're learning much more about how covid is spreading in our communities. In particular there was a dental conference held here in BC which became a super spreader event which ravaged the province. In contrast a Rugby event held at the same time also hosted thousands of fans and athletes/staff members but did not become a hot spot for the virus. What was the difference? Interesting article, could be good news for live sporting events going forward.


https://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/a-tale-of-two-b-c-events-why-a-dental-conference-became-a-covid-19-hotspot-but-a-rugby-tourney-did-not/wcm/909365b9-8ba2-4753-8e29-52d94122b192/

[hsb]

People worry about capacity but Brampton Civic Hospital was operating at over 100% capacity in 2018/2019 and Peel Memorial was operating at over 500% capacity.

One of the biggest priorities to start this pandemic, to not overburden the hospitals, is considered normal to a major city in Canada.

Things like that just make no damn sense and something we should immediately address if you want the GTA to be better prepared moving forward. No excuses.

[Fairview4Life]

We're learning much more about how covid is spreading in our communities. In particular there was a dental conference held here in BC which became a super spreader event which ravaged the province. In contrast a Rugby event held at the same time also hosted thousands of fans and athletes/staff members but did not become a hot spot for the virus. What was the difference? Interesting article, could be good news for live sporting events going forward.


https://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/a-tale-of-two-b-c-events-why-a-dental-conference-became-a-covid-19-hotspot-but-a-rugby-tourney-did-not/wcm/909365b9-8ba2-4753-8e29-52d94122b192/

One of the biggest spreader events in Italy was a soccer game.

[NinjaBro]

We're learning much more about how covid is spreading in our communities. In particular there was a dental conference held here in BC which became a super spreader event which ravaged the province. In contrast a Rugby event held at the same time also hosted thousands of fans and athletes/staff members but did not become a hot spot for the virus. What was the difference? Interesting article, could be good news for live sporting events going forward.


https://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/a-tale-of-two-b-c-events-why-a-dental-conference-became-a-covid-19-hotspot-but-a-rugby-tourney-did-not/wcm/909365b9-8ba2-4753-8e29-52d94122b192/

One of the biggest spreader events in Italy was a soccer game.

Italians are different, they like to kiss each other on the cheeks to celebrate.

[Westside Gunn]

We're learning much more about how covid is spreading in our communities. In particular there was a dental conference held here in BC which became a super spreader event which ravaged the province. In contrast a Rugby event held at the same time also hosted thousands of fans and athletes/staff members but did not become a hot spot for the virus. What was the difference? Interesting article, could be good news for live sporting events going forward.


https://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/a-tale-of-two-b-c-events-why-a-dental-conference-became-a-covid-19-hotspot-but-a-rugby-tourney-did-not/wcm/909365b9-8ba2-4753-8e29-52d94122b192/

One of the biggest spreader events in Italy was a soccer game.

Italians are different, they like to kiss each other on the cheeks to celebrate.

According to a study in 2015, italians don't wash their hands after using the bathroom. hygiene game on fleek

[Courtside]

We're learning much more about how covid is spreading in our communities. In particular there was a dental conference held here in BC which became a super spreader event which ravaged the province. In contrast a Rugby event held at the same time also hosted thousands of fans and athletes/staff members but did not become a hot spot for the virus. What was the difference? Interesting article, could be good news for live sporting events going forward.

https://vancouversun.com/health/local-health/a-tale-of-two-b-c-events-why-a-dental-conference-became-a-covid-19-hotspot-but-a-rugby-tourney-did-not/wcm/909365b9-8ba2-4753-8e29-52d94122b192/

One of the biggest spreader events in Italy was a soccer game.

Italians are different, they like to kiss each other on the cheeks to celebrate.

Simply comparing two groups of people collected together is pointless unless you know for fact that the same number of infected seeders are at both events. Two seeders at the dental conference could have started a whole bunch of transmission chains, especially considering handshakes are common, while the cheering at sporting events could/should spread the virus also, but if you don't first have one the same two infectious carriers, then of course you aren't going to seed an outbreak.

[niQ]

One of the biggest spreader events in Italy was a soccer game.

Italians are different, they like to kiss each other on the cheeks to celebrate.

According to a study in 2015, italians don't wash their hands after using the bathroom. hygiene game on fleek

Time for new measures

[YelloC]

2600 cases in Florida, no bubble will stop that kind of spread. Canada is the only way forward

Between 2013-2018 Florida averaged 900 pneumonia deaths a year. This year Florida has had 5000+ pneumonia deaths. If I was an NBA player/staff, I would have big time worries about resuming play in a state that will use whatever dirty trick they could think of in order to have sports leagues host the end of their seasons there.