2014 NBA Draft Prospects Thread #5 | Raps picking 20th

[McFurious1]

There's a lot of guys I'll be happy with in the 1st round.

TJ Warren
Payne
McDaniels
Ennis
GR3
Capela
Hood
J. Grant

[Double Helix]

If you take a role player potential guy (like, say, McDaniels or Hood) you're more likely to end up with someone you could buy in free agency for a couple of million/year. That makes it a wasted pick, too.

Just to keep things simple here, I'm going to use PER to compare depth. I can think of no SFs with PERs of 13.0 or better and 6'7+ size that were picked up off waivers, snatched out of the D-league, or traded for very little last year. Most SFs good enough to play 25 or more minutes per game in the NBA are getting the MLE or more. Even if you want to move away from PER. I can think of plenty more PGs capable of 13/4/4/1 per game on good efficiency while being able to adaquately guard the average PG height in the league than I can SFs capable of 13/6/2/1 on good efficiency capable of guarding 6'8-6'9 SFs. It's supply and demand for me when comparing prospects within a tier of potential impact.

Meanwhile, how many rags to riches PG stories are there every year when a starting PG goes down? We gave a PG with a career average close to 15.0 PER for nothing and paid him nothing to get him. We secured another borderline PER 15.0 PG in De Colo, who got to train under Parker and Popovich for nothing. Every Summer League there's some young unsigned PG who generates buzz it seems. Masai went out and nabbed a reasonably young 6'3, quick, atheltic, 3-point shooting Buycks for pennies.

There are so few impact SFs in the league these days that I don't see how you can't take supply and demand into consideration within the league itself. Unless Payton projects to be an impact starting PG by the time his rookie scale contract ends there are 30 backups from Steve Blake level on up in that 11-15.0 PER range all begging for 20mpg.

Meanwhile, a PER 15.0 SF would be ranked 17th at his position in the league above Josh Smith. Supply and demand has to be considered a little here. The fact that so many Raptors fans have been staring at names like Thobias Harris and Wilson Chandler like they're dream offseason targets we could only hope to trade for tells you just how in-demand even mediocre SFs are.

I don't mind gambling for upside if the player has the potential to be top 30, or top 20 at their position. Perhaps that's unfair to Payton because he plays a deeper more competitive position, but I'm not convinced he has the upside to do that. Maybe it happens when he's 25 or 26 and playing somewhere other than here with a vastly improved 3 point shot but what good will that be for us then?

If Payton's shot was better. If his release point wasn't so low. If he was faster or a better leaper. If he finished with both hands. If he wasn't afraid of contact from bigs who are well below NBA level. If he was an elite defender rather than a guy who might become one. If he had a Rubio-esque or even Rondo-esque nack for making players better and wasn't so sloppy with the ball. If he was even some of these things I would be firmly on the Payton bandwagon but he isn't and there are already tons of borderline starters out there at PG to choose from that don't need shot doctors. This reminds me so much of everybody being convinced that Brandon Knight was going to be a star that we would regret passing on it's not even funny. And Knight was a more intriguing prospect that put up more impressive numbers at a younger age in a better conference. He's also on his second NBA team already.

[Rapsobsessed7]

If you take a role player potential guy (like, say, McDaniels or Hood) you're more likely to end up with someone you could buy in free agency for a couple of million/year. That makes it a wasted pick, too.

Just to keep things simple here, I can think of no SFs with PERs of 13.0 or better and 6'7+ size that were picked up off waivers, snatched out of the D-league, or traded for very little last year. Most SFs good enough to play 25 or more minutes per game in the NBA are getting the MLE or more.

Meanwhile, how many rags to riches PG stories are there every year when a starting PG goes down? We gave a PG with 15.0 PER offence away for nothing and paid him nothing to get him. We secured another borderline PER 15.0 PG in De Colo for nothing. Every Summer League there's some young unsigned PG who generates buzz it seems. Masai went out and nabbed a reasonably young 6'3, quick, atheltic, 3-point shooting Buycks for pennies.

There are so few impact SFs in the league these days that I don't see how you can't take supply and demand into consideration within the league itself. Unless Payton projects to be an impact starting PG by the time his rookie scale contract there are 30 backups from Steve Blake level on up in that 11-15.0 PER range all begging for 20mpg.

Meanwhile, a PER 15.0 SF would be ranked 17th at his position in the league above Josh Smith. Supply and demand has to be considered a little here. The fact that so many Raptors fans have been staring at names like Thobias Harris and Wilson Chandler like they're dream offseason targets we could only hope to trade for tells you just how in-demand even mediocre SFs are.

I don't mind gambling for upside if the player has the potential to be top 30, or top 20 at their position. Perhaps that's unfair to Payton because he plays a deeper more competitive position, but I'm not convinced he has the upside to do that. Maybe it happens when he's 25 or 26 and playing somewhere other than here with a vastly improved 3 point shot but what good will that be for us then?

If Payton's shot was better. If his release point wasn't so low. If he was faster or a better leaper. If he finished with both hands. If he wasn't afraid of contact from bigs who are well below NBA level. If he was an elite defender rather than a guy who might become one. If he had a Rubio-esque or even Rondo-esque nack for making players better and wasn't so sloppy with the ball. If he was even some of these things I would be firmly on the Payton bandwagon but he isn't and there are already tons of borderline starters out there at PG to choose from that don't need shot doctors. This reminds me so much of everybody being convinced that Brandon Knight was going to be a star that we would regret passing on it's not even funny. And Knight was a more intriguing prospect that put up more impressive numbers at a younger age in a better conference. He's also on his second NBA team already.

Couple questions for you

1. Who do you like at #20?
2. Thoughts on McDaniels (since you outlined your thoughts on Payton already)?
3. Thoughts on McGary as a backup C?

I like your analysis of players it's very thought out so I'm curious to see what you think of the above.

[Double Helix]

If you take a role player potential guy (like, say, McDaniels or Hood) you're more likely to end up with someone you could buy in free agency for a couple of million/year. That makes it a wasted pick, too.

Just to keep things simple here, I can think of no SFs with PERs of 13.0 or better and 6'7+ size that were picked up off waivers, snatched out of the D-league, or traded for very little last year. Most SFs good enough to play 25 or more minutes per game in the NBA are getting the MLE or more.

Meanwhile, how many rags to riches PG stories are there every year when a starting PG goes down? We gave a PG with 15.0 PER offence away for nothing and paid him nothing to get him. We secured another borderline PER 15.0 PG in De Colo for nothing. Every Summer League there's some young unsigned PG who generates buzz it seems. Masai went out and nabbed a reasonably young 6'3, quick, atheltic, 3-point shooting Buycks for pennies.

There are so few impact SFs in the league these days that I don't see how you can't take supply and demand into consideration within the league itself. Unless Payton projects to be an impact starting PG by the time his rookie scale contract there are 30 backups from Steve Blake level on up in that 11-15.0 PER range all begging for 20mpg.

Meanwhile, a PER 15.0 SF would be ranked 17th at his position in the league above Josh Smith. Supply and demand has to be considered a little here. The fact that so many Raptors fans have been staring at names like Thobias Harris and Wilson Chandler like they're dream offseason targets we could only hope to trade for tells you just how in-demand even mediocre SFs are.

I don't mind gambling for upside if the player has the potential to be top 30, or top 20 at their position. Perhaps that's unfair to Payton because he plays a deeper more competitive position, but I'm not convinced he has the upside to do that. Maybe it happens when he's 25 or 26 and playing somewhere other than here with a vastly improved 3 point shot but what good will that be for us then?

If Payton's shot was better. If his release point wasn't so low. If he was faster or a better leaper. If he finished with both hands. If he wasn't afraid of contact from bigs who are well below NBA level. If he was an elite defender rather than a guy who might become one. If he had a Rubio-esque or even Rondo-esque nack for making players better and wasn't so sloppy with the ball. If he was even some of these things I would be firmly on the Payton bandwagon but he isn't and there are already tons of borderline starters out there at PG to choose from that don't need shot doctors. This reminds me so much of everybody being convinced that Brandon Knight was going to be a star that we would regret passing on it's not even funny. And Knight was a more intriguing prospect that put up more impressive numbers at a younger age in a better conference. He's also on his second NBA team already.

Couple questions for you

1. Who do you like at #20?
2. Thoughts on McDaniels (since you outlined your thoughts on Payton already)?
3. Thoughts on McGary as a backup C?

I like your analysis of players it's very thought out so I'm curious to see what you think of the above.

I'm just heading out but will try to answer later.

[SkywalkerAC]

For any McDaniels fans:

Looking at Twitter, both Masai and Weltman were on hand to see McDaniels post this line against then top-rated Syracuse:

http://m.espn.go.com/ncb/playergamestat ... =400502845

I'm just looking over Twitter to see what other prospects in the mix he watched.

Love him. Glad his wingspan/reach measured better than expected.

He's a good swing-man prospect but his standing reach was pretty horrible - .5" less than Demar's. His wingspan is nice which, along with his athleticism, allows him to play bigger than his size, but still, Kyle Anderson others have about half a foot on him.

Despite all that, standing reach isn't the be all and end all and I could see Masai going for the 3&D swingman over the lanky question-marks. Often times in the NBA it's the compact athletes playing great defense over the big-for-position guys. Bruce Bowen, Tony Allen, Ron Artest, Terrence Ross, and so on have shown that it's not all about standing reach.

The real question with him is how confident you are in his 3-ball becoming a major weapon sooner rather than later. I'd be happy with his selection as he actually has a chance to get into Casey's rotation and he gives us a nice cadre of athletic wings. Is he good enough to start for a playoff team (over Ross and maybe VC) from day 1?

[SkywalkerAC]

There's a lot of guys I'll be happy with in the 1st round.

TJ Warren
Payne
McDaniels
Ennis
GR3
Capela
Hood
J. Grant

Yeah, this is a draft where I, and others, should be happy regardless.

[Undefeated]

I haven't watched much of Payton so my analysis might be off, but judging by his form and mechanics in the DX video there's a few things he needs to work and his jumper isn't completely broken. There's somewhat of a hitch in his shot where he brings the ball above and behind his head which is why he often hits front rim so he has to eliminate that to make his shot motion quicker and smoother. Ideally he should lower his release point releasing slightly above the chest to give more power. Also, he shoots at the apex or peak of his jump and from there he has to rely on the smaller muscles of the arm, finger and hand which is a lot more unreliable hence the trajectory of his shot is flat rather than shooting on the way up to give the shot more arc. His feet is very inconsistent as well sometimes wide and sometimes narrow when he elevates and on the landing. The flaws in his shot mechanics are minor so it can be correctable. Most players have the same problem. The most important thing is aligning the shooting shoulder and hip with the basket and he appears to do that and bringing the ball up in the same plane as the shooting eye. If those two areas are lacking then the jumper is broken.

[mademan]

If Nurkic falls to the 20th pick and he's committed to coming over next season, he would be a steal. Second best big in this draft imo.

[thunderforce]

Here is a thought what about going with someone that is a pure scorer . He wouldn't be playing on our first line anyway and if we can't match guys like Lebron James heck no one can but if we had one of the highest scoring second units we could really do some damage .

[nahom1319]

If Nurkic falls to the 20th pick and he's committed to coming over next season, he would be a steal. Second best big in this draft imo.

Even if he isn't committed to coming over at 20 we'd be morons not to take him. I don't think he drops out of the top 10 let alone top 15 though.

[BillyGM]

Here is a thought what about going with someone that is a pure scorer . He wouldn't be playing on our first line anyway and if we can't match guys like Lebron James heck no one can but if we had one of the highest scoring second units we could really do some damage .

Seems like Rodney Hood or TJ Warren are best options for that

[thunderforce]

It is always good to have options .

[Indeed]

If you take a role player potential guy (like, say, McDaniels or Hood) you're more likely to end up with someone you could buy in free agency for a couple of million/year. That makes it a wasted pick, too.

Just to keep things simple here, I'm going to use PER to compare depth. I can think of no SFs with PERs of 13.0 or better and 6'7+ size that were picked up off waivers, snatched out of the D-league, or traded for very little last year. Most SFs good enough to play 25 or more minutes per game in the NBA are getting the MLE or more. Even if you want to move away from PER. I can think of plenty more PGs capable of 13/4/4/1 per game on good efficiency while being able to adaquately guard the average PG height in the league than I can SFs capable of 13/6/2/1 on good efficiency capable of guarding 6'8-6'9 SFs. It's supply and demand for me when comparing prospects within a tier of potential impact.

Meanwhile, how many rags to riches PG stories are there every year when a starting PG goes down? We gave a PG with a career average close to 15.0 PER for nothing and paid him nothing to get him. We secured another borderline PER 15.0 PG in De Colo, who got to train under Parker and Popovich for nothing. Every Summer League there's some young unsigned PG who generates buzz it seems. Masai went out and nabbed a reasonably young 6'3, quick, atheltic, 3-point shooting Buycks for pennies.

There are so few impact SFs in the league these days that I don't see how you can't take supply and demand into consideration within the league itself. Unless Payton projects to be an impact starting PG by the time his rookie scale contract ends there are 30 backups from Steve Blake level on up in that 11-15.0 PER range all begging for 20mpg.

Meanwhile, a PER 15.0 SF would be ranked 17th at his position in the league above Josh Smith. Supply and demand has to be considered a little here. The fact that so many Raptors fans have been staring at names like Thobias Harris and Wilson Chandler like they're dream offseason targets we could only hope to trade for tells you just how in-demand even mediocre SFs are.

I don't mind gambling for upside if the player has the potential to be top 30, or top 20 at their position. Perhaps that's unfair to Payton because he plays a deeper more competitive position, but I'm not convinced he has the upside to do that. Maybe it happens when he's 25 or 26 and playing somewhere other than here with a vastly improved 3 point shot but what good will that be for us then?

If Payton's shot was better. If his release point wasn't so low. If he was faster or a better leaper. If he finished with both hands. If he wasn't afraid of contact from bigs who are well below NBA level. If he was an elite defender rather than a guy who might become one. If he had a Rubio-esque or even Rondo-esque nack for making players better and wasn't so sloppy with the ball. If he was even some of these things I would be firmly on the Payton bandwagon but he isn't and there are already tons of borderline starters out there at PG to choose from that don't need shot doctors. This reminds me so much of everybody being convinced that Brandon Knight was going to be a star that we would regret passing on it's not even funny. And Knight was a more intriguing prospect that put up more impressive numbers at a younger age in a better conference. He's also on his second NBA team already.

I think it is rather difficult to use PER to measure impact, particularly at the position of SF.
Meanwhile, at #20, most players have an obvious weakness, and we may want to draft someone with a different skill set. This is why I like Inglis at #37, not only because he can guard multiple positions, also he can handle the ball and start a fast break. If we are going forward with Casey's system, it would be ideal to have wings to create transition off rebound or pass interception.

[ATLTimekeeper]

Just to keep things simple here, I'm going to use PER to compare depth. I can think of no SFs with PERs of 13.0 or better and 6'7+ size that were picked up off waivers, snatched out of the D-league, or traded for very little last year. Most SFs good enough to play 25 or more minutes per game in the NBA are getting the MLE or more. Even if you want to move away from PER. I can think of plenty more PGs capable of 13/4/4/1 per game on good efficiency while being able to adaquately guard the average PG height in the league than I can SFs capable of 13/6/2/1 on good efficiency capable of guarding 6'8-6'9 SFs. It's supply and demand for me when comparing prospects within a tier of potential impact.

Meanwhile, a PER 15.0 SF would be ranked 17th at his position in the league above Josh Smith. Supply and demand has to be considered a little here. The fact that so many Raptors fans have been staring at names like Thobias Harris and Wilson Chandler like they're dream offseason targets we could only hope to trade for tells you just how in-demand even mediocre SFs are.

In the lottery era past pick 15 there have been something like 70 players that averaged starter minutes in their career. Most of them are either bigs or guards. The SFs (and there aren't many) tend to enter the league young (19/20) or have been stalwart scorers at the previous level. Often PFs in college that had perimeter skills. Past pick 20 that number is around 50 players. Gives you a sense of the likeliness of a wing busting out.

[mademan]

If Nurkic falls to the 20th pick and he's committed to coming over next season, he would be a steal. Second best big in this draft imo.

Even if he isn't committed to coming over at 20 we'd be morons not to take him. I don't think he drops out of the top 10 let alone top 15 though.

I wouldn't be surprised. Teams are wary of international prospects who haven't committed to coming over. It's very possible he drops to 20 and even further.

[thunderforce]

Just to keep things simple here, I'm going to use PER to compare depth. I can think of no SFs with PERs of 13.0 or better and 6'7+ size that were picked up off waivers, snatched out of the D-league, or traded for very little last year. Most SFs good enough to play 25 or more minutes per game in the NBA are getting the MLE or more. Even if you want to move away from PER. I can think of plenty more PGs capable of 13/4/4/1 per game on good efficiency while being able to adaquately guard the average PG height in the league than I can SFs capable of 13/6/2/1 on good efficiency capable of guarding 6'8-6'9 SFs. It's supply and demand for me when comparing prospects within a tier of potential impact.

Meanwhile, a PER 15.0 SF would be ranked 17th at his position in the league above Josh Smith. Supply and demand has to be considered a little here. The fact that so many Raptors fans have been staring at names like Thobias Harris and Wilson Chandler like they're dream offseason targets we could only hope to trade for tells you just how in-demand even mediocre SFs are.

In the lottery era past pick 15 there have been something like 70 players that averaged starter minutes in their career. Most of them are either bigs or guards. The SFs (and there aren't many) tend to enter the league young (19/20) or have been stalwart scorers at the previous level. Often PFs in college that had perimeter skills. Past pick 20 that number is around 50 players. Gives you a sense of the likeliness of a wing busting out.

Ok so if we are pretty sure that whoever we draft is not going to start for us then we should draft for who our second line needs and I think that would be a back up center and SF . I would say if there is an all around player at one of those positions to go for it but if there isn't I think they should go for more scoring from the second unit because they aren't going to be defending the the starters and if we can out score other teams with our bench we will win most nights .

[Risk101]

If Nurkic falls to the 20th pick and he's committed to coming over next season, he would be a steal. Second best big in this draft imo.

Even if he isn't committed to coming over at 20 we'd be morons not to take him. I don't think he drops out of the top 10 let alone top 15 though.

I don't get the Nurkic hype. His measurements are average at best, he is a below par athlete, he seems a bit overweight at 280, and he isn't that quick. I've seen videos and I'm not impressed with the guy.

[OAKLEY_2]

Here is a thought what about going with someone that is a pure scorer . He wouldn't be playing on our first line anyway and if we can't match guys like Lebron James heck no one can but if we had one of the highest scoring second units we could really do some damage .

Seems like Rodney Hood or TJ Warren are best options for that

Our problem has been getting stops on the second unit not scoring.

[Troubadour]

OT: remember when everyone wanted to tank for Myck Kabongo?

[Roland Brice]

OT: remember when everyone wanted to tank for Myck Kabongo?

Everyone also wanted us to sign Mickael Pietrus, which actually happened, sadly.