Re: 2023 Draft Prospect discussion Part II

[Yallbecrazy]

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/tools/tiny.fcgi?id=OuMTM

List of BPM > 5 this year

Draft candidates in the top 100 (Not much)

Brandon Miller
Marcus Sasser
Brandin P
Brice Sensabaugh
Kris Murray
Dereck Lively
Taylor Hendricks
Jarace Walker
Noah Clownley
Colby Jones
Cason Wallace
Gradey Dick
Terrence Shannon

Burkin is close to top 100

I appreciate the link.

The link below ranks players BPM since 2010-11.

Box Plus/Minus Men's Career Leaders and Records

Since 2010-11  Minimum 50 G
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/leaders/men/bpm-player-career.html

Very interesting. No all-star player appears on this list between 1-40. The first one is Haliburton at 41.

Doesn't seem like high BPM has a direct correlation with superstardom.

The highest bpm guys will almost always be upper classmen, and stars usually declare before they are upper classmen.
Rarely you might get athletically gifted players who are missing a shot or shot+handle that prevented them from being stars in college, but they dominated rebounds and stocks, + were good passers who then eventually blossomed in the NBA.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

BPM, the stat that supports Russell Westbrook as being one of the greatest players to have walked the face of this earth.

It's not perfect by any means, and there have been many guys with high bpms to have busted or be terrible in the pros.

However, there are very few guys ( maybe none) with low bpms to be succesful in the NBA.

I just showed Trey Murphy had a 1.8 BPM as a sophomore as he was the first player who came to my mind after thinking of late blooming SGs how is that maybe none? He is doing pretty well for himself as a young NBA player and was drafted mid-round.

If a player looks like they've hit their ceiling and has a low BPM that is just a complete DND. If they're a player who is making rapid improvement and has the physical tools among demonstrating other significant plus NBA traits then that is different.

Jaylen Brown is indeed a good example of another player the Boston Celtics were smart enough to take 3rd OVERALL in a draft who had a 1.1 OBPM but they saw the raw talent, he was also a turnover machine at cal but has shored up that area of his game and now a 48% volume shooter.

[BoyzNTheHood]

Except BPM is the stat being discussed and not OBPM, and Trey Murphy had a 3.6 BPM as a freshman, dropped off as a sophomore, and then skyrocketed to 8.4 as a Junior.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Looking at Zach Edey's WS/40 numbers make me laugh so hard. In statistician terms they basically mean he should be playing 3v5 in college for games to be balanced lol.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

As Yallbecrazy just mentioned, BPM will usually increase with upperclassmen.

[BoyzNTheHood]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

[PoundTown]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

He's the guy I've been watching highlights and keeping up with and wondering if he's the guy we're all collectively sleeping on. He is very fundamentally sound and plays both ways, long, good IQ, has developed and improved significantly over his 3 years. He's one of the best players in college ball at the moment and his percentages are ridiculous for a swinman. Put up 29 points on 20th ranked Providence last week on 10/11 shooting, including 3 of 3 from 3 point range. Pretty impressive.

[BoyzNTheHood]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

He's the guy I've been watching highlights and keeping up with and wondering if he's the guy we're all collectively sleeping on. He is very fundamentally sound and plays both ways, long, good IQ, has developed and improved significantly over his 3 years. He's one of the best players in college ball at the moment and his percentages are ridiculous for a swinman. Put up 29 points on 20th ranked Providence last week on 10/11 shooting, including 3 of 3 from 3 point range. Pretty impressive.

If he were a senior I’d say you could argue him being a 2nd rounder based on age alone. But he’s 20/21 years old playing like a 10 year NBA vet. He’s just solid. I thought JHS was the Brogdon of this draft but he’s not, it’s Colby Jones.

He’s as close to a safe pick as you can get. Would anyone be surprised if he comes in and succeeds? All you’d be asking him to do is knock down open shots and be solid defensively. If you take him at 15 and he peaks as an Anthony Parker are you mad? I’d be ecstatic.

[Dalek]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

I totally agree. He does everything well and nothing really prevents him from having a good NBA career. He is a connector type, but lately he has had some big scoring games for Xavier. I'd like a bigger shooting track record to consider him for where are drafting because he didn't shoot well last year, and this year he hasn't taken a high volume of threes.

The guy I also see as overthinking it, is Kris Murray. His twin brother Keegan is starting on a play-off team with an elite offense and Kris has the same demeanor.

Kris Murray is also the only Division I player to average at least 20 points, 8-plus rebounds, and have made 60-plus 3-pointers this season. People know he can shoot, but he is also a good defender with quick feet for his size:

Read on Twitter

He also plays for Iowa which I am sure means Nick is keeping an eye out for him. He might be the guy who we thought Weiskamp would be.

[WuTang_CMB]

Said it before but if Kriss Murray slides in the 20s that is great value. Going to be a lot of bust role players in this draft I find. I'd bet Kris wont be one of them.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Colby is a very safe pick because even if his 3 point percentages tank in the NBA and he only shoots it 34-35% (which is a distinct possibility given the low sample size combined with his discouraging free throw percentages) he's still going to provide value as a glue guy who is efficient in other areas. Looks like floor is a solid bench piece who can spot start and hang vs. NBA starters.

He's a guy who is going to last in the NBA longer than a lot of guys drafted around him but I'm not really sold on him becoming anything special so it'd be beyond hard to justify taking him mid round.

[S.W.A.N]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

I totally agree. He does everything well and nothing really prevents him from having a good NBA career. He is a connector type, but lately he has had some big scoring games for Xavier. I'd like a bigger shooting track record to consider him for where are drafting because he didn't shoot well last year, and this year he hasn't taken a high volume of threes.

The guy I also see as overthinking it, is Kris Murray. His twin brother Keegan is starting on a play-off team with an elite offense and Kris has the same demeanor.

Kris Murray is also the only Division I player to average at least 20 points, 8-plus rebounds, and have made 60-plus 3-pointers this season. People know he can shoot, but he is also a good defender with quick feet for his size:

Read on Twitter

He also plays for Iowa which I am sure means Nick is keeping an eye out for him. He might be the guy who we thought Weiskamp would be.

Kris Murray to me is the safest looking mid-first round pick out there. Advanced stats stud, good athletic profile, etc etc.

[BoyzNTheHood]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

I totally agree. He does everything well and nothing really prevents him from having a good NBA career. He is a connector type, but lately he has had some big scoring games for Xavier. I'd like a bigger shooting track record to consider him for where are drafting because he didn't shoot well last year, and this year he hasn't taken a high volume of threes.

The guy I also see as overthinking it, is Kris Murray. His twin brother Keegan is starting on a play-off team with an elite offense and Kris has the same demeanor.

Kris Murray is also the only Division I player to average at least 20 points, 8-plus rebounds, and have made 60-plus 3-pointers this season. People know he can shoot, but he is also a good defender with quick feet for his size:

Read on Twitter

He also plays for Iowa which I am sure means Nick is keeping an eye out for him. He might be the guy who we thought Weiskamp would be.

Kris Murray to me is the safest looking mid-first round pick out there. Advanced stats stud, good athletic profile, etc etc.

Agreed. He’s also a very safe pick. His twin is doing well in the NBA. It almost doesn’t make sense to think he’d fail.

[Mark_83]

A lot of times we overthink things. If Colby Jones played a more aesthetically pleasing style he’d be a lottery pick.

Why? Then we wouldn't have a chance at him.

Anyways, big fan of his. I like him better than JHS and Lewis. Malcolm Brogdon 2.0.

[Yallbecrazy]

BPM, the stat that supports Russell Westbrook as being one of the greatest players to have walked the face of this earth.

It's not perfect by any means, and there have been many guys with high bpms to have busted or be terrible in the pros.

However, there are very few guys ( maybe none) with low bpms to be succesful in the NBA.

I just showed Trey Murphy had a 1.8 BPM as a sophomore as he was the first player who came to my mind after thinking of late blooming SGs how is that maybe none? He is doing pretty well for himself as a young NBA player and was drafted mid-round.

If a player looks like they've hit their ceiling and has a low BPM that is just a complete DND. If they're a player who is making rapid improvement and has the physical tools among demonstrating other significant plus NBA traits then that is different.

Jaylen Brown is indeed a good example of another player the Boston Celtics were smart enough to take 3rd OVERALL in a draft who had a 1.1 OBPM but they saw the raw talent, he was also a turnover machine at cal but has shored up that area of his game and now a 48% volume shooter.

Jaylen Brown had great defensive stats so his overall BPM was good (OG also had a poor OBPM).

Jaylen is also an outlier as he had a horrible basketball IQ, but is apparently in the 95th+ percentile of non basketball intelligence and athleticism. He's also known for being a gym rat too.

He was terrible as a rookie and still has a poor bbiq despite having had great coaching his whole career. If he was drafted in the mid 1st round by a team with poor player development there is a small chance he's not even in the league right now some team may have given up on him too quickly.

[Psubs]

It's not perfect by any means, and there have been many guys with high bpms to have busted or be terrible in the pros.

However, there are very few guys ( maybe none) with low bpms to be succesful in the NBA.

I just showed Trey Murphy had a 1.8 BPM as a sophomore as he was the first player who came to my mind after thinking of late blooming SGs how is that maybe none? He is doing pretty well for himself as a young NBA player and was drafted mid-round.

If a player looks like they've hit their ceiling and has a low BPM that is just a complete DND. If they're a player who is making rapid improvement and has the physical tools among demonstrating other significant plus NBA traits then that is different.

Jaylen Brown is indeed a good example of another player the Boston Celtics were smart enough to take 3rd OVERALL in a draft who had a 1.1 OBPM but they saw the raw talent, he was also a turnover machine at cal but has shored up that area of his game and now a 48% volume shooter.

Jaylen Brown had great defensive stats so his overall BPM was good (OG also had a poor OBPM).

Jaylen is also an outlier as he had a horrible basketball IQ, but is apparently in the 95th+ percentile of non basketball intelligence and athleticism. He's also known for being a gym rat too.

He was terrible as a rookie and still has a poor bbiq despite having had great coaching his whole career. If he was drafted in the mid 1st round by a team with poor player development there is a small chance he's not even in the league right now some team may have given up on him too quickly.

I think he shot AMAZING in the Celtics 3pt shooting drill, thus they knew that he'd be able to shoot it in the pros.

[Rapsfan07]

Colby is a very safe pick because even if his 3 point percentages tank in the NBA and he only shoots it 34-35% (which is a distinct possibility given the low sample size combined with his discouraging free throw percentages) he's still going to provide value as a glue guy who is efficient in other areas. Looks like floor is a solid bench piece who can spot start and hang vs. NBA starters.

He's a guy who is going to last in the NBA longer than a lot of guys drafted around him but I'm not really sold on him becoming anything special so it'd be beyond hard to justify taking him mid round.

Yeah I don't think he's going to be a star but I don't think anyone around our range is going to be anyway.

Jones has a high floor, medium ceiling and I think thats the best we can hope for around 15.

[WuTang_CMB]

Colby is a very safe pick because even if his 3 point percentages tank in the NBA and he only shoots it 34-35% (which is a distinct possibility given the low sample size combined with his discouraging free throw percentages) he's still going to provide value as a glue guy who is efficient in other areas. Looks like floor is a solid bench piece who can spot start and hang vs. NBA starters.

He's a guy who is going to last in the NBA longer than a lot of guys drafted around him but I'm not really sold on him becoming anything special so it'd be beyond hard to justify taking him mid round.

Yeah I don't think he's going to be a star but I don't think anyone around our range is going to be anyway.

Jones has a high floor, medium ceiling and I think thats the best we can hope for around 15.

Glue type of guard playing with our Glue type big in Poeltl. Efficient on both ends. If the shot can get up there, its a win. great mechanics also

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I don't think that's how Masai is going to see it. Glue guys are commonly available via trades and free agency for the right price whereas star players are not and he understands how hard it has been for Toronto to historically recruit and retain star players.

Draft time for the Raps needs to be about hitting homeruns regardless of where they are picking.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Colby is a very safe pick because even if his 3 point percentages tank in the NBA and he only shoots it 34-35% (which is a distinct possibility given the low sample size combined with his discouraging free throw percentages) he's still going to provide value as a glue guy who is efficient in other areas. Looks like floor is a solid bench piece who can spot start and hang vs. NBA starters.

He's a guy who is going to last in the NBA longer than a lot of guys drafted around him but I'm not really sold on him becoming anything special so it'd be beyond hard to justify taking him mid round.

Yeah I don't think he's going to be a star but I don't think anyone around our range is going to be anyway.

Jones has a high floor, medium ceiling and I think thats the best we can hope for around 15.

Jones at 15 overall would be like settling for a girlfriend who you know you get can with who is a 7.