Official Scottie Barnes Thread - Part 6

[KG1585]

I was really happy to see Scottie get to the free throw line 6 times. I feel like to be effective he needs to average 5-6 FTA/game. There were a few opportunities where I felt he could have pulled up from mid range instead of going all the way to the rim and forcing the issue with Gobert there.

[will]

The SZN of Scottish has arrived. Hop on board.

[YogurtProducer]

103 was the highest pace in the 80s, not anywhere near 110.

Mmm, yeah, 105.5. I'd remembered it a shade higher. Even still, that's faster than now, which is sufficient for my point.

I really think the 3 point shot popularized slowed the game down a bit initially. When the line got introduced the game slowed down. And then when it got shortened it slowed down even more. Teams could now score more in the halfcourt and did not have to sell out defensively to get in transition. and then sometime in the mid 2010's teams realized even a transition 3 point shot is still a more efficient shot than anything in the half court

We've been arcing up since 2005 after everyone realized how ugly smashmouth ball was after enduring that from like 98-04. I don't know how much of that pace rebound has to do with the 3pt shot. We had a slow-down around the lockout and then went back to the general upward trend at about a possession per season. We were at 100 possessions per game by 2020, then dipped to 99, 98 and now 99 again this past season.

The Suns were showing us in 2005 that a pull-up 3 in transition was an efficient shot compared to a lot of set offense, so I don't know so much about "mid-2010s," though it was adopted more widely in the league around then, certainly. It was just a matter of teams catching up to what they'd already seen, as always.

Wondering where you see 105.5? https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html has it at 103.1, and 105.5 as the 70s.

Pace in 1994 was 95.1

1995, 1996, and 1997 the 3 point line shortened, and pace went down to 92.9, 91.8 and 90.1

It lengthened again in 1998, and 3 point attempts went down a bit (about 3-4 less per game), pace kind of flatlined between 90 and 92 until 2013 (outline a blip of 88.9 in the lockout 1998-99 year).

2013-14 and 2014-15 pace went to 93.9 (first time above 93 since 1993-94, outside of an outlier 93.1 in 2000)

Then over the next 4 year it went 95.8, 96.4, 97.3, and then for the last 6 years it has flatlined again between 99-100.

To me it seems clear - 3 point shooting had a pretty big impact on pace. As 3 point attempts (mostly in the half court) went up the pace went down. Teams started to take less transition looks and focus more on the half court from like 1995 to 2014. And then from 2014 to 2017 teams started to spam 3's at a much higher rate (including in transition) which increased pace again (maybe more misses off 3's led to quicker, easier offence?). Then in 2018 the shot clock off offensive rebounds reset to 14 instead of 24 which proably is why such a big increase happened in 2018-19 to today (20 offensive rebounds per game now had 10 seconds less per possession).

[tsherkin]

Wondering where you see 105.5? https://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_stats_per_game.html has it at 103.1, and 105.5 as the 70s.

I was being stupid and looking at ORTG and then the change between 79 and 80, as it happens.

My bad.

Pace in 1994 was 95.1

1995, 1996, and 1997 the 3 point line shortened, and pace went down to 92.9, 91.8 and 90.1

I was referring more to the actual proliferation of 3pt shooting, not guys starting to take a few more corner 3s in the 90s while pace had been slowing down for more than 20 years. But yes, marginal fluctuations in the mid-90s happened and then we saw the major slow-down thereafter. We'd been seeing it for a while, and of course it part, a lot of the primary teams were aging, which is another factor.

To me it seems clear - 3 point shooting had a pretty big impact on pace.

It's certainly a faster shot to take, but we're also just generally seeing teams play faster. Grab DRBs, run it out, look for the quick bucket. It isn't just transition 3s.

Then in 2018 the shot clock off offensive rebounds reset to 14 instead of 24 which proably is why such a big increase happened in 2018-19 to today (20 offensive rebounds per game now had 10 seconds less per possession).

Yep, that's definitely a contributing factor, although offensive rebounding has been trending down for quite some time as well (some of which is also due to 3pt shooting), until last year flipped the trend a bit. That'll be interesting to see if it bears out this year.

But again, pace was accelerating to begin with prior to the big popularization of the 3 around 2016, 2017. It took several years to get going, but that's hardly surprising given the undercurrent of traditionalism in the league.

The 3 has certainly helped enable a return to transition basketball, but it's hardly the only factor. And I think you're looking too much into the short trends for the 3 in the 90s. The league was already slowing down. Already throwing the ball into the post, already looking to deal with the defensive revolution that we were seeing from Riles and then JVG and such. We were seeing the period of play which brought us the 5-second backdown rule because of Mark Jackson and Charles Barkley. We were seeing methodical pick-and-roll from the Jazz.

Nellie ball in Dallas was a thing but they weren't winining, so it didn't capture the league's attention. Then Nash went to Phoenix and clicked with MAD and Amare and we started to see a little more appreciation for the 3, small ball, transition play and all that. Lots of pushback from conventional oldheads and the like, but that started the wheels shifting in the other direction. The three enables some things, but we were getting like 12-18 FGA/g in transition per team last year and they weren't all 3s. About 5.5 to 13 pull-up 3s per game.

And they are low-percentage, and poorly rebounded by the offensive team. Most guys shoot like 33-35% on above-break 3s. But they're easy to get, and they're often open. But it gets them going, and grabbing a DRB can open up opportunity in the other direction, which can lead to another pull-up 3 or more conventional transition opportunities.

IMHO, it's a little more nuanced than "3pt shooting slowed the game down, and now is speeding the game up."

[YogurtProducer]

But again, pace was accelerating to begin with prior to the big popularization of the 3 around 2016, 2017. It took several years to get going, but that's hardly surprising given the undercurrent of traditionalism in the league.

Was it? Pace was between 90 and 93 ever year between 1994-95 (year the line shortened) and 2012-13. 3PA between those years sloooowly creeped up (15-17 per game during the short line, back down to 13 in 1997-98, and got up to 20 by 2012-13). And then between 2014 and 2020 3PA did this: 20, 21, 22, 24, 27, 29, 32, 34. Pace in that same time went 92, 94, 94, 96, 96, 97, 100, 100

The 3 has certainly helped enable a return to transition basketball, but it's hardly the only factor. And I think you're looking too much into the short trends for the 3 in the 90s. The league was already slowing down. Already throwing the ball into the post, already looking to deal with the defensive revolution that we were seeing from Riles and then JVG and such. We were seeing the period of play which brought us the 5-second backdown rule because of Mark Jackson and Charles Barkley. We were seeing methodical pick-and-roll from the Jazz.

Nellie ball in Dallas was a thing but they weren't winining, so it didn't capture the league's attention. Then Nash went to Phoenix and clicked with MAD and Amare and we started to see a little more appreciation for the 3, small ball, transition play and all that. Lots of pushback from conventional oldheads and the like, but that started the wheels shifting in the other direction. The three enables some things, but we were getting like 12-18 FGA/g in transition per team last year and they weren't all 3s. About 5.5 to 13 pull-up 3s per game.

And they are low-percentage, and poorly rebounded by the offensive team. Most guys shoot like 33-35% on above-break 3s. But they're easy to get, and they're often open. But it gets them going, and grabbing a DRB can open up opportunity in the other direction, which can lead to another pull-up 3 or more conventional transition opportunities.

IMHO, it's a little more nuanced than "3pt shooting slowed the game down, and now is speeding the game up."

Another thing to consider is that turnovers and fouls have greatly decreased in the last 50 years. 50 years ago teams were turning it over 21 times a game (14 now) and also fouling 25 times a game (20 now). That is 7 less possessions a game off turnovers (obviously does not work exactly like that) and also 5 less fouls is a few trips to the line less in bonus which also, would increase the # of possessions. I think a lot of that is influenced by the 3 point game increasing in popularity - if teams are able to take a bail out 3 rather than force themselves to the rim (increasing the odds of a TO or a foul) that is going to slow the game down a bit.

But my point about the 3 now "speeding up the game" is more so that teams are quicker to fire away on those 3's. Even though a lot more 3's got taken between 1997 and 2013 or whatever, most of them were in a half court set and even then, teams would be absolutely pissed if a guy shot a 3 with 15 seconds on the clock. The increase almost entirely was replacing the old mid-range shot with stepping a few feet back and firing the 3 instead. However nowadays, if you are a solid shooter and wide open, teams are encouraging you to shoot that 3 regardless of the shot clock. They are no longer replacing mid range shots with 3 point shots, these are shots early in the clock no team would have taken in the past becuase they were "bad shots"

That is where I am going with the "it initially slowed it down and now is speeding it up". Even though both can be attributed to the 3, the reasoning for why it is doing what it is doing it is very different.

[canada_dry]

I said a while back im really interested in a leap defensively maybe moreso than anything offensively. If yesterday is any indication then I'll be very happy as should everyone.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

[HumbleRen]

I need 20/7/5 Scottie !

[Scase]

I need 20/7/5 Scottie !

If the wolves game is any indication, it shouldnt be that hard, not many teams will have paint defense like that. Regardless, he needs to improve his efficiency, this is still a carryover from last year.

[HumbleRen]

I need 20/7/5 Scottie !

If the wolves game is any indication, it shouldnt be that hard, not many teams will have paint defense like that. Regardless, he needs to improve his efficiency, this is still a carryover from last year.

Yeah, it’s why I went with 20.

Predicted this last game

Give me 18/7/5 Scott Barns

Just want to see how close I can get to the actual numbers he puts up.

[TorontoBarneys]

He'll average 20 ppg this season just because it's obvious he'll get many more opportunities to score compared to last, if nothing else. He's also gotten better so the efficiency should improve, as well.

[brownbobcat]

I said a while back im really interested in a leap defensively maybe moreso than anything offensively. If yesterday is any indication then I'll be very happy as should everyone.

Sent from my SM-G960W using RealGM mobile app

Hmm, I don't know. A lot of defence comes down to ball IQ (which Scottie has), film study, motor and inherent physical gifts. Yes, there's work involved but not a lot of skill development per se. If Scottie is spending as much time in the gym as he should be, we really need to be seeing the results on offence.

[will]

I need 20/7/5 Scottie !

If the wolves game is any indication, it shouldnt be that hard, not many teams will have paint defense like that. Regardless, he needs to improve his efficiency, this is still a carryover from last year.

Yeah, it’s why I went with 20.

Predicted this last game

Give me 18/7/5 Scott Barns

Just want to see how close I can get to the actual numbers he puts up.

I'm going with 20 points/22 boards/21 dimes tonight.

Scottish SZN

[HumbleRen]

If the wolves game is any indication, it shouldnt be that hard, not many teams will have paint defense like that. Regardless, he needs to improve his efficiency, this is still a carryover from last year.

Yeah, it’s why I went with 20.

Predicted this last game

Give me 18/7/5 Scott Barns

Just want to see how close I can get to the actual numbers he puts up.

I'm going with 20 points/22 boards/21 dimes tonight.

Scottish SZN

Okay this Oscar

[Mikistan]

You guys need to start adding in steals and blocks or at least stocks to your predictions

Who had him averaging 5 blocks per game??

[will]

You guys need to start adding in steals and blocks or at least stocks to your predictions

Who had him averaging 5 blocks per game??

Need to include the rips per game That's important.

[HumbleRen]

Final prediction.

20/7/5/3 STOCKS.

[YogurtProducer]

15 assists thru 2 games is nice.
11 turnovers is less nice

Gotta clean it up but encouraging start to the year

[will]

You're the man now, dawg.

[LoveMyRaps]

15 assists thru 2 games is nice.
11 turnovers is less nice

Gotta clean it up but encouraging start to the year

11 turnovers in 2 games is superstar stuff. We're talking Luka and Prime Westbrook type of stuff.

In all seriousness, I'm sure those turnovers will come down a bit but I still expect him to finish the season averaging close to 4 TO per game. He loves to play a superfast brand of basketball.

[DatHomieYouHaTe]

15 assists thru 2 games is nice.
11 turnovers is less nice

Gotta clean it up but encouraging start to the year

11 turnovers in 2 games is superstar stuff. We're talking Luka and Prime Westbrook type of stuff.

Ya, top players turn the ball over... maybe our posters are not use to that. More usage and passing that tends to happen.. He'll get use to it.. whatever