1. Portland Trail Blazers
Zaccharie Risacher | 6-8 wing/forward | 19 years old | JL Bourg
Risacher remains at No. 1 for now. It very well may not end this way, and draft workouts will play a critical role in the process. The NBA is constantly looking for big wing/forward types who can knock down shots, defend at a reasonable level and play with the ball in their hands. That makes Risacher the favorite right now to go No. 1; more teams will view his game as one that can fit into a valuable, flexible role for their teams. The race is WIDE open at No. 1, but handicapping it now, I think Risacher would be the pick for more teams than any other prospect.
The French wing has produced at a high level in EuroCup competition. Through March 13, in total EuroCup and French League games, he’s averaging 11.4 points while shooting 49.4 percent from the field, 44.7 percent from 3 and 69.4 percent from the free-throw line. He’s rebounding at a reasonable rate for a wing and has shown some passing and decision-making chops. His jumper looks ready for the NBA, with great touch off the catch and when Bourg runs him off movement actions. He cuts well to the rim and creates buckets in transition. On defense, Risacher is sharp as a help defender and cuts off angles with his length, especially when operating as the low man in ball-screen coverages. On the ball, he’s defended guards at times with mixed results, to the point where I think he’s best served against the two through four positions.
The worry: Risacher is not a good shot creator at this point. The difference between him and someone like current Charlotte Hornets rookie Brandon Miller is the latter knew how to play with more poise to create his own shots in pick-and-roll situations, particularly from the midrange area. Risacher doesn’t have those skills yet. He also doesn’t yet have the explosive first step to beat anyone or enough flexibility to shake opponents off the dribble. Still, he doesn’t turn 19 until April, so there’s a ton of room between where he is now and what he will be at his peak.
2. Washington Wizards
Alex Sarr | 7-1 big | 19 years old | Perth Wildcats
Sarr emerged early in this draft cycle as a legitimate potential No. 1 pick, starting with his performance against the G League Ignite in Las Vegas in early September, when scouts came away believing was the best prospect on the court. He came off the bench for Perth in the Australian NBL this season, averaging 9.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks on 52 percent shooting while taking two 3s in 17 minutes per night. But don’t think twice about those pedestrian numbers: The Wildcats finished second in the league, and Sarr plays behind All-NBL big man Keanu Pinder.
Sarr is a difference-maker on defense. He covers an immense amount of ground with his arms and quick feet, similar to bigs such as Memphis’ Jaren Jackson Jr., Cleveland’s Evan Mobley and Brooklyn’s Nic Claxton. Sarr flies around rotating off the ball and can handle himself in a variety of ball-screen coverages, ranging from switching to drop. If he’s waiting at the rim and opponents dare challenge him, odds are he’ll get to the shot and contest it, if not outright block it.
The other end is the question. Sarr has shown potential as a rim runner in ball screens, but for the most part, his game involves pick-and-pops, and he doesn’t make great screen contact. He’s not a high-impact defensive rebounder, which has led to some questioning if he can consistently play the five in the NBA. If he indeed requires a more physical center alongside him, his limited offensive game may be exposed. He’s best served playing next to a floor-spacing five, or he’d need to become a dangerous perimeter shooter himself.
Sarr has shown flashes as a ballhandler and some touch as a shooter, so there’s enough upside in his package of skills to make him a legitimate difference-maker. It will just take him a lot of time to round out. He’s not as offensively polished as Mobley was entering the league in 2021.
Sarr’s range is across the top five right now, depending on how the lottery order falls.
3. Detroit Pistons
Matas Buzelis | 6-10 wing/forward | 19 years old | G League Ignite
Buzelis has been a beneficiary of multiple factors each occurring at once in this class. First, his size, off-ball capabilities and athleticism with the ball in transition make him a high-upside swing in a draft class doesn’t have many of them. Second, bigger wings with similar profiles like Charlotte’s Miller, Memphis’ G.G. Jackson, Washington’s Bilal Coulibaly and Houston’s Whitmore have put together promising rookie seasons while displaying skills they didn’t consistently showcase in their pre-draft seasons.
Those four are positive indicators because Buzelis has not had an ideal pre-draft campaign, especially early. He’s averaging 13.7 points while shooting 45.6 percent from the field in the G League, including a disappointing 26.9 percent mark from 3. However, over his last 11 games, he’s upped those numbers to 16.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.6 assists, one steal and an awesome 2.5 blocks per game. He also won some plaudits from scouts for his play at the Rising Stars event at All-Star Weekend, where he helped the G League team upset a roster of NBA rookies and sophomores that included Wembanyama.
There are certainly questions even after his in-season improvement, and shooting is the one that comes up the most. Buzelis shot the ball well the season before at Sunrise Christian Academy in Kansas but hasn’t been consistent during his youth career. While Buzelis has been able to fit into an offensive role with G League Ignite instead of pressing the issue, scouts would like to learn more about his ability to create on his own. Additionally, while Buzelis’ off-ball defense has largely won over scouts, he has struggled on the ball this season in large part due to a lack of strength.
This is earlier than I would select Buzelis, but this mock draft also is based on feedback I get from scouts, and many are willing to give Buzelis the benefit of the doubt for the G League Ignite’s struggles. I think Buzelis’ range honestly starts at No. 1 if he has a
Matas Buzelis Q&A: Ignite prospect talks Rising Stars competition, watching Luka and more
4. Memphis Grizzlies
Reed Sheppard | 6-3 guard | 20 years old | Kentucky
A month ago, I said Sheppard and Kentucky teammate Rob Dillingham were the two most polarizing players in this draft class. That label remains accurate for Dillingham, but I don’t think that applies to Sheppard anymore, based on my conversations with NBA team personnel.
In his last 13 games, Sheppard is averaging 14.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists (with a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), 2.7 steals and nearly one block per game while shooting a ridiculous 52.6 percent from the field, 50.0 percent from 3 and 86.4 percent from the free-throw line. By the way, that 50 percent mark from 3 over his last 13 games? It’s actually made his full-season percentage go down.
Questions certainly remain. Sheppard is listed at 6-foot-3, though scouts are skeptical he’s that tall. He lacks the length or athleticism typical of a top-10 pick. But the more Sheppard starred in SEC play, the more scouts emphasized what he can do as opposed to the traits he doesn’t have. It’s absurd to me that he only made second-team All-SEC; there’s a real case for him as one of the five best players in the entire country, and I’d consider him an All-American in some capacity. It’s almost impossible for a college player of any age to be this productive and efficient.
Offensively, Sheppard is potent leading the fast break or delivering hit-ahead passes to his teammates. When combined with his elite shooting, those attributes make Sheppard one of the best connective players in this class. On top of that, he’s showcasing more dexterity operating in ball screens and as a playmaker in recent weeks. His games against Mississippi State (32 points, seven assists and five rebounds on Feb. 27) and Tennessee (27 points, five rebounds and five assists on March 9) were eye-openers for NBA personnel.
Defensively, Sheppard makes plays, and his closeouts on shooters are textbook and disruptive. He has some off-ball lapses that can cause issues for Kentucky, and while he’s excellent at staying in front of guards on the ball, opponents can force mismatches that take advantage of his size deficiencies.
Should NBA personnel believe in Sheppard’s remarkable feel for the game and high skill level, or should they worry about his physical deficiencies? Given the recent success of other supposed “skill-first” guys who slipped in the draft (Jalen Brunson, Brandin Podziemski and Desmond Bane, to name a few), I continue to buy into Sheppard’s positives more than I fret about his negatives. I had Sheppard ranked at No. 6 on my big board back in early December and have maintained a high grade on him throughout the process.
It’s growing exceedingly likely Sheppard will be taken in the top eight if he was to enter the draft. If the right team ends up at No. 1, it’s even possible he at least gets a workout and meeting to prove his chops with that team. The Grizzlies, for example, they tend to love prospects with high feel for the game and skill levels that produce across the box score, even if they have physical limitations. If they draft Sheppard, they can then use Luke Kennard’s expiring salary as matching salary in a trade to fill their hole at center.
Reed Sheppard and Kentucky, a love story. 'The whole state is connected to him'
5. San Antonio Spurs
Nikola Topić | 6-6 lead guard | 18 years old | Crvena zvezda
Topić has not played since early January due to a knee injury he suffered after leaving Mega Basket and returning to Crvena zvezda for the second half of its season. Topić did enough to rise up the scouting board before that injury, and league sources remain unconcerned about its long-term severity despite his extended absence.
In 13 games for Mega Basket, Topić averaged 18.6 points and 6.9 assists while shooting 52.4 percent from the field. He’s a dynamic ball-screen distributor and consistently lives in the paint in the Adriatic League, which consists of teams from the six countries that once made up Yugoslavia. He can execute nearly every pass in the book once he gets that downhill advantage and hits teammates with flair and creativity. Topić also scores proficiently at the rim, using inventive touch in finishing high off the glass and around rim protectors.
Scouts have consistently brought up two issues with Topić’s game. First, where is he as a shooter? He makes his free throws but is an inconsistent marksmen from 3-point range. If he can’t make enough jumpers to keep defenses honest, how will that affect the rest of his game? The second question is whether he can separate consistently from NBA defenders, who are quicker than the slower players who make up the Adriatic League. On the other hand, the NBA game is played in more space, so this could go either way.
Regardless, Topić has a good chance to be taken in the top six. The Spurs could use a lead guard to develop alongside Wembanyama, so they’re a good fit for him.
6. Charlotte Hornets
Stephon Castle | 6-6 wing | 19 years old | Connecticut
I still have Castle in my top six, and I can’t figure out why the public seems hesitant to embrace his accomplishments this season. He has been outstanding since returning from an injury earlier this season. Since the calendar turned to 2024, Castle has averaged 12.4 points, 4.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists over 18 games while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3. Since Jan. 28, his long-range accuracy has risen to 37.9 percent on 2.4 3s per game. He is a terrific connective tissue for the best team in the country and consistently impacts the game in multiple facets.
On top of that, Castle has played at a really high level on defense, taking on a variety of tough assignments ranging from point-of-attack matchups to difficult off-ball help responsibilities. He guarded Creighton All-American candidate Baylor Scheierman as well as anyone has all season, holding the Blue Jays’ star to just 24 points in 71 minutes on 7-of-18 shooting across two games. Castle’s versatility has been a huge part of Connecticut’s stingy defense.
Teams still question whether Castle can play point guard at the next level or if he’s more of a secondary ballhandler, which I think is more likely. Some evaluators also wonder if his jumper will translate to the NBA. But Sheppard is the only other freshman in the country consistently impacting games this positively on both ends of the court, and whereas Sheppard’s Wildcats are considered a vulnerable No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament, Castle’s Huskies are the clear No. 1 team. If Castle’s jumper sticks at the next level, there’s a case for him to go in the top three.
He makes a ton of sense for the Hornets between LaMelo Ball and Miller.
7. San Antonio Spurs (via Raptors)
Cody Williams | 6-8 wing | 19 years old | Colorado
The brother of Oklahoma City Thunder wing Jalen Williams, Cody Williams profiles as the kind of prized high-end prospect who can pressure the rim, pass, make plays and potentially defend multiple positions. At 6-8 with long arms, Williams has showcased the ability to play some point guard this season in addition to attacking in transition and slashing from the wing in a straight line. He’s averaging 13.7 points, 3.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 59 percent from the field for a Buffaloes team that earned one of the final at-large selections into the NCAA Tournament. He’s also made 45.7 percent of his 3s, though his lack of volume makes NBA teams concerned that his jumper won’t translate.
The bigger issues for scouts are about Williams’ self-creation upside. These days, NBA wings must be able to create and knock down pull-up jumpers. That’s not a part of Williams’ game at this stage, and it wasn’t in high school, either. If he can showcase any upside as a pull-up shooter, NBA teams would feel better about taking him in the top three. Even so, most evaluators have him in the top-six range at this point.
The Spurs, with a second lottery pick and the point guard spot filled, can afford to take a chance on developing Williams’ game.
8. Houston Rockets (via Nets)
Ron Holland | 6-8 wing | 18 years old | G League Ignite
Holland was the Ignite’s most productive player this season, averaging 19.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 2.9 assists per game while being one of the team’s few sources of offensive creation. However, most of those points came in transition or inefficiently in half-court settings. He had a below-average true shooting percentage and more turnovers than assists as he struggled with his decision-making. That’s somewhat to be expected from an 18-year-old playing professionally for the first time, but it also has left evaluators in a tricky spot as they try to determine where to slot him. He’ll miss the rest of the G League season with a thumb injury.
Holland’s motor is what excites NBA teams most. He constantly plays hard, getting the most out of his terrific athleticism by going 100 percent at every moment. His energy can sometimes bite him on defense when he gets overaggressive and overly physical. But amid the Ignite’s poor season, Holland has at least continued to improve, showcasing a capacity for growth that impressed evaluators.
It seems like Holland’s range is from picks No. 4 to No. 12 right now. Some evaluators who have gone back through his tape now that his season is over have come away a bit more understanding and impressed with his play this season. Pre-draft workouts will play a huge role in determining his draft position, especially if he shoots the ball well in front of NBA executives.
9. Utah Jazz
Rob Dillingham | 6-3 guard | 19 years old | Kentucky
This pick goes to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside of the top 10. The Jazz seem likely to keep it, as they have the NBA’s ninth-worst record and have fallen off a cliff since the NBA trade deadline.
Dillingham is a prospect with dizzying highs and significant question marks. Scouts love his elite speed with the ball in his hands, in addition to his touch. Dillingham, who is averaging 15 points and 38 assists per game this season while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 44 percent from 3, maintains his control at a high level despite playing at a fast pace. He uses a bevy of quick crossovers and maximizes his speed with well-timed hesitation moves to change pace.
He’s also listed at 6-3, and many scouts aren’t convinced he’ll even measure that big at the combine in May. That lack of size impacts him as a finisher at times and really causes issues on the other end. Dillingham may be the worst defender in the class, given his struggles getting over screens at the point of attack and issues dealing with any sort of mismatch. He also can get a bit distracted off the ball, with poorly timed digs and rotations.
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Can Dillingham be a starting point guard, or is he more of a bench sparkplug? Is he a good enough distributor to be the former, or is he too much of a score-first guard? Can he hold up at all on defense to allow him to close key games? My best NBA comparison for Dillingham is Lou Williams, a three-time Sixth Man of the Year award winner who started just 11 percent of his 1,123 NBA games. Where would a team take Williams in this class? My best bet is in the back end of the lottery, but it seems Dillingham’s range extends from No. 5 to No. 15 or so. There are enormous fans of Dillingham out there who love his explosiveness and skill, and others who don’t love his game at all and worry about his capability to close games.
10. Atlanta Hawks
Tidjane Salaun | 6-9 wing/forward | 18 years old | Cholet
Salaun is another bigger wing/forward archetype of prospect with perimeter skill, and the Hawks need more of those attributes around Trae Young, Jalen Johnson and Kobe Bufkin. At 6-9, Salaun has been productive this season in the French League and Basketball Champions League, averaging 9.3 points and 3.8 rebounds while shooting 35 percent from behind the 3-point line. He has a smooth stroke that should have no issues translating to NBA range, and he can attack the rim on cuts and straight-line drives.
I’m a bit lower than consensus on him, though, because I am worried about his overall feel for the game. I also view him as a more of a forward than a true wing athletically, which could hinder his positional flexibility. But he’s extremely young and has all the time in the world to gain a better understanding of the game. Many teams see him as a real option starting in the back half of the lottery.
11. Oklahoma City Thunder (via Rockets)
Donovan Clingan | 7-2 center | 20 years old | Connecticut
Oklahoma City wants to be able to play with five shooters spaced along the 3-point line at all times. Typically, the biggest impediment to that goal is the difficulty of finding centers with legitimate size for the position who can also dribble, pass and shoot. The Thunder might end up having to settle for more of a complement to Chet Holmgren than a clear scheme fit.
Clingan would be that complement. He can run dribble-handoffs and really pass for a player his size. He’s excellent as a screener and can roll well to the rim. Scouts also will tell you his jumper looks clean in Connecticut practices, even if most are skeptical he’ll ever be an NBA-level 3-point shooter.
Clingan has had an up-and-down year after injuring his foot in the preseason and his ankle midway through the regular season. When he’s been on the court, he’s been one of the most dominant players in college basketball. He completely shuts down the paint when he’s in the game, using an enormous frame that takes up a significant portion of the paint. He moves well for his size and is elite in drop coverage defensively, stopping ballhandlers from turning the corner on him and getting to the rim. His ability to backpedal on-balance is very real. When not defending the ball, he makes his presence felt when necessary.
Evaluators aren’t sure how long Clingan can actually play within games. He was essentially a part-time player as a freshman on the way to Connecticut’s title run and has seen limited minutes this season due to his injuries. The good news: Clingan has averaged 25 minutes per game since Feb. 6 and been spectacular, notching 12.6 points, nine rebounds, two assists and three blocks per contest while locking down the restricted area. If Connecticut goes on an NCAA Tournament run, his draft position will rise.
Connecticut center Donovan Clingan dunks against the Marquette defense during the Big East tournament. (Brad Penner / USA Today)
12. Chicago Bulls
Dalton Knecht | 6-6 wing | 23 years old | Tennessee
It took a long time for people to recognize how much Knecht torched SEC play this season. He scored at a staggering pace, averaging 25.5 points in 18 SEC games while shooting 48.4 percent from the field and 42.4 percent from 3. For the season, he’s averaging 20.1 points per game on 48 percent from the field, but those stats are dragged down by a stretch where he played at less than 100 percent following an ankle injury suffered against North Carolina. If you remove those games, Knecht is averaging 25 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.1 assists. He was the clear SEC Player of the Year and will be an All-American at the end of the year.
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Great college players aren’t always great NBA players, but the style of the 23-year-old Knecht’s game makes him a potential lottery pick. Everything he does offensively should translate to NBA settings. Not only is he is a terrific shooter proficient in spot-up situations and off movement, but he’s also a higher-end athlete than most floor spacers who can sky in transition and finish inside with hang time. He simply has a knack for scoring.
The issues come on defense, as Knecht is rough around the edges and consistently makes errors that lead to problems for Tennessee. But I tend to buy into late bloomers like him, especially those who can really shoot and possess legitimate NBA athleticism.
go-deeper
GO DEEPER
Tennessee's scoring sensation is the All-American no one saw coming
13. New Orleans Pelicans (via Lakers)
Isaiah Collier | 6-5 guard | 19 years old | USC
Collier has been one of the toughest evaluations this season. He started the season on fire and looked like a candidate to be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. He tailed off as USC fell apart, struggling with turnovers and defense before hurting his wrist and missing time. Once he returned, he took the Pac-12 by storm. As USC closed the season as one of the better teams in the Pac-12, Collier averaged 18.7 points and 4.3 assists in his final seven games while shooting 46.3 percent from the field and 35.7 from 3. He was the bruising, powerful, bowling-ball-esque driver we saw early on and throughout his high school career, living at the foul line by averaging seven free-throw attempts.
Collier is an impressive downhill athlete who lives in the paint and has the wherewithal to hit kickouts and dump-offs for assists. Despite his size and strength, he has not been an impactful defender in any way, struggling to stay in front of opposing guards and wings. Questions still exist about his feel for the game and shooting ability. And yet, it’s really hard to find players who live at the foul line and possess Collier’s sheer force and athleticism to impact games.
Collier is definitely polarizing, but I think his late-season push will slot him in the top 15 with ease, with a chance to rise to the middle of the lottery with strong workouts.
14. Portland Trail Blazers (via Warriors)
Ja’Kobe Walter | 6-5 wing | 19 years old | Baylor
Walter has been up and down this season, averaging 14.7 points and 4.5 rebounds per game. Many of his struggles can be explained by his inconsistent shooting. Walter was a solid marksman in high school but has made just 33.9 percent of his 3s so far this season. In Big 12 play this year, Walter made just 40 percent of his 2-point shots and 29.1 percent of his 3-pointers. That’s rough. He hasn’t been quite as good on defense as anticipated, either.
If his shooting recovers, Walter makes for a good investment. He’s an athletic, 6-5 wing who can be run off movement into tough shots. He rarely makes mistakes, has strong feel for the game and plays well within a team concept on offense.
