Post#970 » by deeps6x » Mon Apr 18, 2016 11:59 am
What does Casey and Masai want out of a PF instantly if they are going to give them minutes next season?
They have to have good D. They have to rebound well, or even great if Bebe is going to be the backup C. They have to be efficient at the rim. They don't have to have 3pt range (assuming we have Powell and Ross as the SG/SF backups).
Lets take a look at the PF options:
14.8 TRB, .357 3pt%, .611 FG%, .618 eFG%, 22.0 Pts, 2.2 Ast, 0.8 Stl, 1.1 Blk, .654 TS%, 29.3 PER, ORtg 124.6, DRtg 91.2, BPM 9.0. Sabonis
14.8 TRB, N/A 3pt%, .614 FG%, .614 eFG%, 24.2 Pts, 2.1 Ast, 1.5 Stl, 2.1 Blk, .649 TS%, 33.0 PER, ORtg 130.2, DRtg 92.3, BPM 13.4. B Johnson
11.8 TRB, N/A 3pt%, .598 FG%, .598 eFG%, 16.1 Pts, 1.6 Ast, 0.6 Stl, 3.9 Blk, .601 TS%, 23.9 PER, ORtg 121.4, DRtg 90.9, BPM 10.8. D Davis
11.9 TRB, N/A 3pt%, .615 FG%, .616 eFG%, 17.5 Pts, 1.3 Ast, 0.7 Stl, 1.7 Blk, .636 TS%, 24.2 PER, ORtg 124.8, DRtg 95.3, BPM 8.7. Ivan Rabb
8.6 TRB, .350 3pt%, .530 FG%, .561 eFG%, 22.1 Pts, 1.2 Ast, 1.5 Stl, 2.2 Blk, .585 TS%, 21.7 PER, ORtg 112.0, DRtg 102.2, BPM 5.9. Chriss
8.9 TRB, .329 3pt%, .462 FG%, .510 eFG%, 25.4 Pts, 1.3 Ast, 1.0 Stl, 1.2 Blk, .567 TS%, 24.7 PER, ORtg 115.6, DRtg 99.8, BPM 6.7. Ben Bentil
11.6 TRB, .288 3pt%, .446 FG%, .480 eFG%, 20.3 Pts, 2.1 Ast, 1.0 Stl, 1.8 Blk, .534 TS%, 20.9 PER, ORtg 106.3, DRtg 98.5, BPM 3.6. Ellenson
8.0 TRB, N/A 3pt%, .516 FG%, .516 eFG%, 16.7 Pts, 0.8 Ast, 0.6 Stl, 4.2 Blk, .540 TS%, 18.5 PER, ORtg 107.8, DRtg 96.9, BPM 5.2. Skal Labissiere
*Pts, Ast, Stl, Blk, and TRB are per 40.
Sabonis and Johnson are outstanding rebounders. They both also check every need for next season.
Davis and Rabb are good rebounders. They also both check every need for next season. Davis stands out because he is also an excellent shot blocker.
Bentil and Chriss are sub par rebounders. Sub par defenders. But they both already have 3 point range. Makes them interesting, but not good picks.
Ellenson is also a good rebounder - in the Davis and Rabb league. But he pretty much sucks are every other measurable stat. He may show glimpses of various skills, but he hasn't been able to put them all together - even as well as ANY of the other PF contenders - so why the love? Why should we consider him above any of the others at #9? Smokescreen???
Skal is not a good rebounder. He is the worst one on this list. Despite being the tallest player on the list. He had 2 games this season where he was automatic from mid-range, but even those didn't lift his shooting numbers to an average level. He and Ellenson are the bottom two players in most of the measurable categories. Skal does do one thing better than all the rest. Block shots. Slightly better even than Davis. Now, if Skal could defend like Davis and rebound like Davis, and shoot as well as Davis, then I'd say we should consider him in the same range as Davis. But he doesn't. So we shouldn't. Nobody should. Not even DX. Damn fools.
Ellenson is 19 yrs old
Skal is 20
Davis is 19
Rabb is 19
Chriss hasn't even turned 19
Sabonis just turned 20
Brice Johnson is 21.6.
Bentil just turned 21.
Taking age into consideration, I like Skal even less, Chris goes 20 picks ahead of Bentil (despite being very similar players) due to the age difference. Davis and Rabb are still tied. Sabonis gets a 15 pick edge on Brice Johnson due to the age difference.
The order these PFs get picked should be
Rabb
Davis
Sabonis
Chriss
Then maybe someone reaches for Ellenson and Skal before taking the 'can contribute now', 'higher floor' pick in Brice Johnson. Or perhaps not. Maybe Brice still goes before Ellenson and Skal.
And lastly, Bentil will go in the 2nd round.
SO yeah, it would be a damn shame if Brown and Rabb went back to school for another year. Rabb looks like our pick, but if all the guys behind him move forward 2 spots due to Brown/Rabb dropping out, we might wind up with Sabonis at #9. Still very good for Bargs, but disappointing nonetheless.
Rabb, Davis, or maybe Luwawu would make me happy. Anything else at #9 will disappoint.
Trade up for Murray? Trade down with Denver for #15 and #19?