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2023 Draft Discussion Part III

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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#961 » by REJECTEDBYCLARK » Wed Apr 12, 2023 11:01 pm

Dalek wrote:
REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:OG had a BPM of 8.9, Pascal of 8.2
Go back and look how dominant they were in college as per the stats. These comparisons are bad.

This draft is really bad, there are like 8 guys who have a decent chance to be good NBA players and everyone else has to hit their 90th+ percentile.

I would take the under on 3.5 all star players from this draft.


That's why you want to see efficiency no matter the FGA, OG with a .620 efg in college.

Meanwhile people want to convince you that every big name in college like Kyle Filipowski who had a .481 efg as a center could be the next kristaps porzingis :lol:


I see what you are saying about the stats, but I wonder if that also has to do with the time when people played. This is college ball before kids were incentivized to stay. OG and Pascal are both great college players, but maybe the talent level was also a bit lower.

One area that I think isn't discussed enough is the impact of the NIL since is was brought in, because my theory is that it has in part increased parity in the NCAA.

There are fewer bad teams to build up your numbers on and overall there are better defenses because of the roster consistency. NIL plays a part because it incentivizes players to stay in college longer and that helps programs become more competitive.

Miami had a senior program and they nearly won a title. San Diego State is another example. Just look at the whole tournament and you see how much parity there is in the NCAA.

Teams with one and done stars often struggled because it is a lot to get players to learn the system and perform well. Not saying that this draft doesn't have flaws, but the numbers don't always tell the whole story about the player.


True but numbers not being telling of ability only applies to very few cases. You generally want to use them as guidelines and give preference to the players who actually can put the ball in the bucket and fill up the stat sheets.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#962 » by WuTang_CMB » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:54 am

11TH OR 12TH

Find a fkin gem
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#963 » by ArthurVandelay » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:57 am

WuTang_OG wrote:11TH OR 12TH

Find a fkin gem


Not until one or both of OKC/Chicago win Friday
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#964 » by mtcan » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:57 am

I think lottery odds are locked by regular season record...
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#965 » by S.W.A.N » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:58 am

dozo wrote:
Read on Twitter


Im susprised Filipowski is staying @ Duke for his sophomore season.



Not a great incoming class next year. He plays good and he'll go high lottery vs late first rounder this year.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#966 » by PhilBlackson » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:58 am

Well this should mean at minimum we get one of George, Wallace, Hendricks with a chance to get into the top 4....

This didn't turn out as bad as I thought it would, so while I still believe it was pointless trading for Yak instead of waiting to sign him as a FA so we could improve our odds & level of prospect, at least we SHOULD get a player worthy of being considered part of the "core" moving forward.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#967 » by Bruin » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:58 am

Still need Bulls and OKC to win out for 11th. If one wins out, we get 12th. Otherwise 13
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#968 » by S.W.A.N » Thu Apr 13, 2023 1:59 am

mtcan wrote:I think lottery odds are locked by regular season record...


I thought so too. But playoff standings matter.

So if Bulls make playoffs we improve in standings. Same with Thunder.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#969 » by Bruin » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:00 am

S.W.A.N wrote:
dozo wrote:
Read on Twitter


Im susprised Filipowski is staying @ Duke for his sophomore season.



Not a great incoming class next year. He plays good and he'll go high lottery vs late first rounder this year.

2024 class isn’t great but still some really good players. Ron Holland looks to be a potential star. Would be an awesome wing for us but we won’t be able to get him
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#970 » by WuTang_CMB » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:00 am

ArthurVandelay wrote:
WuTang_OG wrote:11TH OR 12TH

Find a fkin gem


Not until one or both of OKC/Chicago win Friday

cheering for OKC and Chi
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#971 » by ArthurVandelay » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:04 am

mtcan wrote:I think lottery odds are locked by regular season record...


They aren’t locked until 7 & 8 seeds are set.

Then coin flips for any ties.

If Bulls make 8th seed. Raps move up 1.

If Thunder make 8th seed. Raptors move up 1.

If both make it, raptors move up 2.

If neither make it, raptors pick 13.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#972 » by mtcan » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:09 am

Bruin wrote:Still need Bulls and OKC to win out for 11th. If one wins out, we get 12th. Otherwise 13

The 13th pick...famous for:
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Zach Lavine
Richard Jefferson
Tyler Herro
Jalen Duren

The 13th pick...infamous for:
Chris Duarte
Gregorios Papagiannis
Kelly Olynyk (i.e. the 2 picks before the Giannis pick)
Jerome Robinson i.e. the suckier of the Clippers' 2 first round picks in a row that draft...the other one being SGA
Kira Lewis
Tyler Hansborough (yay! former Raptor)
Ed Davis (yay! former Raptor)
Sebastian Telfair (yay! former Raptor)
Marcus Banks (yay! former Raptor)
Keon Clark (yay! former Raptor)
Julian Wright (yay! former Raptor)

Lots of former Raptors are #13 picks...ugh...the sucky ones...unfortunately.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#973 » by Bruin » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:11 am

mtcan wrote:
Bruin wrote:Still need Bulls and OKC to win out for 11th. If one wins out, we get 12th. Otherwise 13

The 13th pick...famous for:
Donovan Mitchell
Devin Booker
Zach Lavine
Richard Jefferson
Tyler Herro
Jalen Duren

The 13th pick...infamous for:
Chris Duarte
Gregorios Papagiannis
Kelly Olynyk (i.e. the 2 picks before the Giannis pick)
Jerome Robinson i.e. the suckier of the Clippers' 2 first round picks in a row that draft...the other one being SGA
Kira Lewis
Tyler Hansborough (yay! former Raptor)
Ed Davis (yay! former Raptor)
Sebastian Telfair (yay! former Raptor)
Marcus Banks (yay! former Raptor)
Keon Clark (yay! former Raptor)
Julian Wright (yay! former Raptor)

Lots of former Raptors are #13 picks...ugh...the sucky ones...unfortunately.

Most of those hits are go to scoring SGs (aside from Duren). Gimme Keyonte and I’m happy
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#974 » by mtcan » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:17 am

The 12th pick...famous for:
Jalen Williams (love that pick for OKC)
Tyrese Haliburton
Miles Bridges (ya he's a violent dude but was looking good before he showed us who he really is)
Steven Adams (yes...this WAS supposed to be the Raptors pick which was traded for Kyle...but this pick COULD have been GIANNIS)
PJ Washington (is he actually good?)
Thad Young (!!!!!)

The 12th pick...infamous for:
Josh Primo (too soon?)
Luke Kennard (he's not bad but he ain't a star)
Dario Saric (he's not bad but...he ain't a star)
Jeremy Lamb
Jason Thompson (yay! former Raptor)
Alek Radojevic (yuck! former Raptor...homegrown talent)
Gerald Henderson (Raptors killer)
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#975 » by Yallbecrazy » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:20 am

Dalek wrote:
REJECTEDBYCLARK wrote:
Yallbecrazy wrote:OG had a BPM of 8.9, Pascal of 8.2
Go back and look how dominant they were in college as per the stats. These comparisons are bad.

This draft is really bad, there are like 8 guys who have a decent chance to be good NBA players and everyone else has to hit their 90th+ percentile.

I would take the under on 3.5 all star players from this draft.


That's why you want to see efficiency no matter the FGA, OG with a .620 efg in college.

Meanwhile people want to convince you that every big name in college like Kyle Filipowski who had a .481 efg as a center could be the next kristaps porzingis :lol:


I see what you are saying about the stats, but I wonder if that also has to do with the time when people played. This is college ball before kids were incentivized to stay. OG and Pascal are both great college players, but maybe the talent level was also a bit lower.

One area that I think isn't discussed enough is the impact of the NIL since is was brought in, because my theory is that it has in part increased parity in the NCAA.

There are fewer bad teams to build up your numbers on and overall there are better defenses because of the roster consistency. NIL plays a part because it incentivizes players to stay in college longer and that helps programs become more competitive.

Miami had a senior program and they nearly won a title. San Diego State is another example. Just look at the whole tournament and you see how much parity there is in the NCAA.

Teams with one and done stars often struggled because it is a lot to get players to learn the system and perform well. Not saying that this draft doesn't have flaws, but the numbers don't always tell the whole story about the player.


I've thought about that a little and I estimate the max effect is .5bpm and not worth thinking about more since it's probably closer to 0.1-0.2bpm
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#976 » by Yallbecrazy » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:21 am

S.W.A.N wrote:
dozo wrote:
Read on Twitter


Im susprised Filipowski is staying @ Duke for his sophomore season.



Not a great incoming class next year. He plays good and he'll go high lottery vs late first rounder this year.


Like it except Proctor should be #2-4
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#977 » by REJECTEDBYCLARK » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:23 am

Proctor looked outstanding vs Tennessee but it's too early for me to come to a determination about him. He has a lot of work to do.
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#978 » by mtcan » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:25 am

The 11th pick...famous for:
Ousmane Dieng (don't know where to put this guy but he's young, long and still has potential since he's a rook)
James Boucknight (no idea where to put this guy because the Lolcats are a horribly run franchise)
Devin Vassell
SGA
Domantas Sabonis
Myles Turner
Klay Thompson
Cam Johnson
Bonzi Wells
MCW (does he belong on this list or the other one? He did win ROTY)
JJ Redick (he ain't a star but had a good career)

The 11th pick...infamous for:
Malik Monk (he's ok but he's not a star...just a bench player)\
Doug McDermott (notable Raptors killer)
Meyers Leonard
Fran Vasquez (infamous because he never actually stepped onto an NBA court...LOL...what a wasted pick)
Jerome Moiso (yay! former Raptor)
Jerryd Bayliss (yay! former Raptor)
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#979 » by kirkwood » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:25 am

I no longer trust management to make
the right decisions on anything
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Re: 2023 Draft Discussion Part III 

Post#980 » by mtcan » Thu Apr 13, 2023 2:33 am

I look at the first round...and I see Leonard Miller rising up the draft board and based on how this front office drafts...he's the pick at 11/12/13...wherever we land.

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