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Add it all up and it should be a long, bitter winter in Toronto. Raps fans straining for good news will note that Toronto has more rebuilding pieces in place than most teams in this situation, as the roster is fairly young, there's cap space in the future and the draft will begin pushing it forward in coming seasons.

But for 2010-11? This is going to be ugly; in fact, Toronto may finish with the league's worst record. I'd be shocked if the Raptors so much as challenged for the playoffs, let alone qualified for them.

D-Wins-RingsIMO wrote:there's more upside than downside on 22 wins ...... weird that he picked us for so few since when ppl do these prognostications the tendency is to push everything to the mean, either down or up.

did Hollinger state how he projects wins? If he uses something simplistic like regressing PER then i wouldn't waste my time with it

i'm thinking more like 27 wins myself.

D-Wins-RingsIMO wrote:did Hollinger state how he projects wins? If he uses something simplistic like regressing PER then i wouldn't waste my time with it.

Not breaking news here, but the Raptors are softer than chenille. The starting center shrinks from contact and spends most of the game camped out on the perimeter, while the starting power forward is 6-9, 210 pounds and about as strong as decaf.

Bargnani is the main problem, as at 7-0, 250 he should be a much more capable defender than he's shown. While he's had his moments as a shot-blocker and on-ball post defender, he's shown no inclination whatsoever to protect the basket or to help his teammates. The next time he uses his body to fight for position will be the first. The team's other 7-footer, meanwhile, is Andersen, one of the league's few players who is even more terrified of contact than Bargnani.

At power forward, Johnson gives a decent effort but simply can't compete strength-wise with NBA power forwards. The fact that his backup, Davis, has a similar build doesn't offer much encouragement for Toronto's ability to deal with muscular opponents inside.

For beef, the Raps can turn to Evans, but he offers a different conundrum -- while he's plenty physical and strong, he's no longer good enough to be part of an NBA rotation.

Finally, they'll get no help from the perimeter guys. With Toronto's other positions just as overmatched defensively as the frontcourt, the Raptors' bigs will spend most of their nights trying to stymie opposing drivers when they aren't getting their brains beat in by bigger post players. If they can't figure out how to make it work, they're likely to repeat as the league's worst defense.

DG88 wrote:25-27 is my prediction either way we're getting a high pick this year and we'll use it one Kyrie Irving

DG88 wrote:25-27 is my prediction either way we're getting a high pick this year and we'll use it one Kyrie Irving

Second, during free agency the Raptors proudly leaked the news that they'd agreed to a two-year, $9 million sign-and-trade deal with Orlando for Matt Barnes. There was only one problem -- it wasn't legal under the salary cap, starting with the word "two" (sign-and-trade deals must be for at least three years) and extending to the dollars and the involvement of Orlando. It was shocking to see an NBA front office foul up something so rudimentary (although one could argue that would explain a lot about Toronto). In reality, the most the Raptors could have legally offered was just $6 million over three years, so Barnes eventually signed with the Lakers instead.

Ripp wrote:

D-Wins-RingsIMO wrote:did Hollinger state how he projects wins? If he uses something simplistic like regressing PER then i wouldn't waste my time with it.

Why do you say this? Assuming he does it in an intelligent way to account for usage shifting around, it might not be terrible.