Lil Q&A with Andrea from Hoopshype

[Chaos Engine]

The Val question seems intimidated, he knows Val will be a fan-favorite. He's feeling threatened! But he was never a fan-favorite anyways.

I see plenty of bargs jerseys on kids and lots of cheers when he does well. There are a lot of bargs fans in hiding right now, waiting to be awarded.

They'll be waiting a long, long time. You think 6 years would be a long enough wait.

[Double Helix]

The Val question seems intimidated, he knows Val will be a fan-favorite. He's feeling threatened! But he was never a fan-favorite anyways.

I see plenty of bargs jerseys on kids and lots of cheers when he does well. There are a lot of bargs fans in hiding right now, waiting to be awarded.

They'll be waiting a long, long time. You think 6 years would be a long enough wait.

If we pretended that he didn't have a sophomore setback he might be the only player in modern NBA history to have a linear progression in PER every year. Again, with his second year as the exception he has literally went from

12.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.9

I don't think many people realize just how strange that truly is. Look at almost any non-MIP award winner or major candidate and you'll see that their PER merely hinted at their potential. In Andrea's case, with the exception of year two its gradually increased year after year. He continues to improve despite the age and the years in the league. He might be one of the slowest developers ever but like a stock that continues to grow he shows no signs of stagnation. He still has room to grow and if the past years are any indicator he might break mid 18s or perhaps even 19.0 by next season. He's an anomaly. There's no getting around it.

[Boogie!]

If we pretended that he didn't have a sophomore setback he might be the only player in modern NBA history to have a linear progression in PER every year. Again, with his second year as the exception he has literally went from

12.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.9

I don't think many people realize just how strange that truly is. Look at almost any non-MIP award winner or major candidate and you'll see that their PER merely hinted at their potential. In Andrea's case, with the exception of year two its gradually increased year after year. He continues to improve despite the age and the years in the league. He might be one of the slowest developers ever but like a stock that continues to grow he shows no signs of stagnation. He still has room to grow and if the past years are any indicator he might break mid 18s or perhaps even 19.0 by next season. He's an anomaly. There's no getting around it.

agreed. that means when he's 39 he'll be playing at lebron james level.

[Volcano]

If we pretended that he didn't have a sophomore setback he might be the only player in modern NBA history to have a linear progression in PER every year. Again, with his second year as the exception he has literally went from

12.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.9

I don't think many people realize just how strange that truly is. Look at almost any non-MIP award winner or major candidate and you'll see that their PER merely hinted at their potential. In Andrea's case, with the exception of year two its gradually increased year after year. He continues to improve despite the age and the years in the league. He might be one of the slowest developers ever but like a stock that continues to grow he shows no signs of stagnation. He still has room to grow and if the past years are any indicator he might break mid 18s or perhaps even 19.0 by next season. He's an anomaly. There's no getting around it.

Probably because he was lazy and didn't take the time to polish his game like most other star players who progress during their first 3 years given the playing time (look at Harden for example, he went from 14 --> 16.4 --> 21). Getting more minutes, more opportunities and more shot attempts up doesn't hurt either. It might be an anomaly to some people, but it's not exactly rocket science.

This year was the first year that Bargs showed consistent, noticeable improvement. He should have been at this point in year 3 with proper work ethic imo. Your way of saying it is just avoiding the hard truth that his work ethic was weak. Rebounding aside, it was never about lack of talent with him.

We should also pretend that everyone else didn't have bad years either and see how they did

No more excuses. Excuses don't win you games. Bargs has been coddled and given more opportunity than any other player in the league. Now that we've seen he can really ball, starting next year, he'll be needing to pay his dues.

[Too Late Crew]

If we pretended that he didn't have a sophomore setback he might be the only player in modern NBA history to have a linear progression in PER every year. Again, with his second year as the exception he has literally went from

12.8
14.6
15.5
16.4
17.9

I don't think many people realize just how strange that truly is. Look at almost any non-MIP award winner or major candidate and you'll see that their PER merely hinted at their potential. In Andrea's case, with the exception of year two its gradually increased year after year. He continues to improve despite the age and the years in the league. He might be one of the slowest developers ever but like a stock that continues to grow he shows no signs of stagnation. He still has room to grow and if the past years are any indicator he might break mid 18s or perhaps even 19.0 by next season. He's an anomaly. There's no getting around it.

Are you suggesting that because he showed an increase in per for 4 consecutive years (age 22-26) that it suggests that he should CONTINUE the same pattern to infinity? I think that's what you seem to want to get at. Look his PER went up 4 years in a row that means its going to go up next year..right?

Poppycock.

14.9 age 23
16.7 age 24
18.1 age 25
20.9 Age 26
19.3 Age 27
18.5 Age 28
17.8 Age 29

I just kind of picked someone because his name popped to the top of my head when talking about Bargs. That's Rasheed Wallace.

Steady almost linear progression for 4 years until age 26 a peak and then a linear decline.Then it jumps around a bit(injuries trades) but he never goes back above 18 again.

Dirk who Bargs is often compared to shows a linear progression from age 21 per o17.5 to his peak 28.1 at age 27 (yes there as a slight dip at age 25 but the rule appears to be we can throw out one year t make the point as was done with Bargs 2nd year) After dirk peaked at age 27 after 5 or 6 years of liner progression he started to decline never to reach the same peak again.

If you want to make a prediction based on past history then its not that he has room to grow and that he should continue to improve. If we look at his history and the history of players who have shown SIMILAR patterns then the prediction should be" he's peaked and we should see him plateau next year and then either stay there or begin his decline."

Sorry I know people want him to be a slow developer that's "different" than everyone else so he can grow into a star even at a late age but that's simply not what the numbers suggest. His improvement rate is not an anomalous as I've shown.

His per is most likely capped at around 18 or so anyways because PER has a substantial rebounding component and its clear hat his rebounding is always going to suck.

Anyways if he can maintain a 17 or so per for 3-4 years now that's not bad. Its not reasonable to think he'll become Dirk with a 28 per ever. I think people need to be content that he might be Wally Szczerbiak for a few years and then decline. That's not bad and its realistic.

[lucky777s]

Where do you find historical player PERs ?

Curious to see how guys hated by most fans in the league like Keith Van Horn and Juwan Howard performed as they put up good stats. Or even guys like Haywood or Foster.

[Double Helix]

PER of 28.4 in another decade! Wait for it, Toolate!

[West Rouge]

Can't belive you got a pic of Chris Bosh & Andrea being re-united together. Altough Bosh looks a bit pale standing on the rail behind Andrea.

[highness]

Can't belive you got a pic of Chris Bosh & Andrea being re-united together. Altough Bosh looks a bit pale standing on the rail behind Andrea.

[Too Late Crew]

Where do you find historical player PERs ?

Curious to see how guys hated by most fans in the league like Keith Van Horn and Juwan Howard performed as they put up good stats. Or even guys like Haywood or Foster.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/

Van Horn had a career per of 16.8. Average is 15.

Howard's career high was 17.

Per has its uses but it measures nothing in terms of D outside of blocks and steals.

[Scott Carefoot]

I'm not sure if we're supposed to be impressed by Bargnani's PER progression, but here were Kevin Garnett's PERs over his first nine seasons: 15.8, 18.2, 20.4, 22.4, 23.6, 23.9, 23.8, 26.4, 29.4. That's impressive.

[plainballing]

If you could tell 20-year-old Bargnani one thing, what would it be? - @therealpeja

AB: Learn how to shoot cause at the end of the day you need to score.

Bargs being Bargs...too bad he's not quick enough to be a SF.

Andrea, love the Primo Pasta commercials. But do you actually eat it? - @Cote004

AB: Of course I eat it!

What is you go to pre-game meal? - @Cote004

AB: I eat English muffins with strawberry jam.

I thought Primo said Bargs eat their pasta for pre-game meal...no!?

if you could, would you welcome a chance to play power forward with Orlando and be paired up with Howard? - @GrantSinnfor3

AB: I don't think Howard is going to be a Magic for much longer.

Bargs luring Dwight to Toronto. /green