Why I like Andrea Bargnani- An alternative perspective
Posted: Wed Dec 5, 2012 10:45 pm
Hi all,
As many of you will undoubtedly check, yes, this is my first post ever. I've lurked on this forum for a few years now, but I generally prefer not to get involved in discussions. The reason why I've decided to join now, is purely because I submitted an article to BleacherReport on an alternative view of Andrea Bargnani, but got rejected. I think it is something that true Raptors fans would be interested in, and please enjoy.
(All statistics are presented as of 12/05/12)
With a dismal record of 4-14, everyone, fans and sportswriters alike, agrees that something needs to change with the Toronto Raptors. Much of the ire has to do with Andrea Bargnani, who seems to be almost universally loathed by the basketball community in Toronto. The muttering is usually focused on poor defence, abysmal rebounding, inefficient shooting, and fading away in the clutch. I took it upon myself to research the numbers and stats, and see whether Bargnani is actually as bad as everyone says. The results certainly surprised me, and in my opinion, clearly prove that Bargnani is certainly not the primary reason for this team’s struggles, and is actually the most valuable player on the Raptors.
When people talk about Bargnani’s stats, they usually start with his PER of 13.49, and compare it to Ed Davis’s PER of 19.71, Kyle Lowry’s 22.37, and conclude that Bargnani is obviously a terrible player and should not start or even be playing at all. What PER is good at is providing a measurement of a player’s individual statistics and performance. What it does not do effectively, however, is measure a player’s value within a team setting, or the so-called intangibles. A good measure of these is the +/- per 48 minutes, which is not as good for individual performances, but effectively measures a player’s overall impact in the team, given that the sample size is sufficiently large.
With this in mind, using NBA.com’s StatsCube, the Toronto Raptors are clearly a better team in almost every aspect when Andrea Bargnani is on the court. From a raw +/- per 48 minutes perspective, the Raptors average -3.1 when Bargnani is playing, versus -7.9 when he is sitting. Yes, I realize that the numbers are still negative, but this makes sense, since the Raptors are a losing team so far in the season. By breaking this down, when Bargnani is on the bench, the team plays slightly better defense (+3 pts/100 possessions), but suffers significantly offensively (almost -7 pts/100 possessions) In terms of raw offense, the Raptors shoot significantly better (44.2% vs 40.1%), get more assists (21.4 vs 18), and turn the ball over less (12.5 TOs vs. 14.3). Steals and FT% are virtually unchanged. The only areas where the team regresses are in blocks (4.2 blks vs 5.6) and offensive rebounding (9.7 reb vs 12.4), while the team surprisingly averages more total rebounds with Bargnani on the court (29.4 reb vs. 28), which of course implies an increase in defensive rebounding production.
In my view, the reason why the Raptors are so much better when Bargnani is playing is because of his offensive talent, and his shooting ability which significantly opens up the court for the rest of the team. Opposing teams recognize that Bargnani cannot be left along, and as a result, their help defence weakens. The value of this is clearly demonstrated by the +/- and fg% of his teammates (the better figure highlighted in green) at this link: http://i45.tinypic.com/4g5j47.jpg
Now, the results are perhaps not entirely statistically significant, and there are some flaws with the use of the +/- statistic, but it’s easy to see that the numbers are almost unanimously in favour of Bargnani. In particular, Amir Johnson is a completely different player, shooting 72% with Bargnani playing. The only player who performs worse is Ed Davis, who interestingly enough has a higher PER than Bargnani (and who many people think should start over Bargnani) but actually contribute more to the team when sitting on the bench with per 48 min +/- of -7.2 on the court, and 0.3 when on the bench.
Please understand that I am not saying that Bargnani is a superstar that can lead the Raptors to an NBA championship, as many of the league’s true superstars have much higher +/- differentials on and off the court (The Miami Heat have a +14 differential when Lebron James plays). I also believe that Bargnani has regressed quite significantly from last year, and I am as upset as anyone over his lack of effort at times. His clutch statistics in particular are terrible, but no more worse than any other Raptor, especially Lowry who has a tendency to chuck (18.9 fga vs 14.3 fga) in clutch scenarios at a paltry 27%.
What these numbers do say, however, is that Bargnani is a positive contributor for the Raptors, regardless of his personal stats. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for some other popular Raptors, such as Valanciunas and Lowry as demonstrated in the following chart at this link: http://i50.tinypic.com/11h82vd.
These numbers also demonstrates that Casey’s decision to play Bargnani over Davis is the correct decision and is founded on statistics, rather than because he is “forced to” by Colangelo. What particularly astounds me is that professional sportswriters seem to have been unaware of these statistics (http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/tim_chisholm/?id=409482), and demand Bargnani's trade.
As a last comment, I’ll add a word of comfort for the Bargnani haters. If Bargnani continues to regress offensively, astute teams will notice this, and the advantage of Bargnani spreading the floor will eventually be lost, as defences focus on more skilled scorers. In this scenario, he will truly be useless (and virtually untradeable).
Thanks for reading, and I welcome any comments and suggestions.
As many of you will undoubtedly check, yes, this is my first post ever. I've lurked on this forum for a few years now, but I generally prefer not to get involved in discussions. The reason why I've decided to join now, is purely because I submitted an article to BleacherReport on an alternative view of Andrea Bargnani, but got rejected. I think it is something that true Raptors fans would be interested in, and please enjoy.
(All statistics are presented as of 12/05/12)
With a dismal record of 4-14, everyone, fans and sportswriters alike, agrees that something needs to change with the Toronto Raptors. Much of the ire has to do with Andrea Bargnani, who seems to be almost universally loathed by the basketball community in Toronto. The muttering is usually focused on poor defence, abysmal rebounding, inefficient shooting, and fading away in the clutch. I took it upon myself to research the numbers and stats, and see whether Bargnani is actually as bad as everyone says. The results certainly surprised me, and in my opinion, clearly prove that Bargnani is certainly not the primary reason for this team’s struggles, and is actually the most valuable player on the Raptors.
When people talk about Bargnani’s stats, they usually start with his PER of 13.49, and compare it to Ed Davis’s PER of 19.71, Kyle Lowry’s 22.37, and conclude that Bargnani is obviously a terrible player and should not start or even be playing at all. What PER is good at is providing a measurement of a player’s individual statistics and performance. What it does not do effectively, however, is measure a player’s value within a team setting, or the so-called intangibles. A good measure of these is the +/- per 48 minutes, which is not as good for individual performances, but effectively measures a player’s overall impact in the team, given that the sample size is sufficiently large.
With this in mind, using NBA.com’s StatsCube, the Toronto Raptors are clearly a better team in almost every aspect when Andrea Bargnani is on the court. From a raw +/- per 48 minutes perspective, the Raptors average -3.1 when Bargnani is playing, versus -7.9 when he is sitting. Yes, I realize that the numbers are still negative, but this makes sense, since the Raptors are a losing team so far in the season. By breaking this down, when Bargnani is on the bench, the team plays slightly better defense (+3 pts/100 possessions), but suffers significantly offensively (almost -7 pts/100 possessions) In terms of raw offense, the Raptors shoot significantly better (44.2% vs 40.1%), get more assists (21.4 vs 18), and turn the ball over less (12.5 TOs vs. 14.3). Steals and FT% are virtually unchanged. The only areas where the team regresses are in blocks (4.2 blks vs 5.6) and offensive rebounding (9.7 reb vs 12.4), while the team surprisingly averages more total rebounds with Bargnani on the court (29.4 reb vs. 28), which of course implies an increase in defensive rebounding production.
In my view, the reason why the Raptors are so much better when Bargnani is playing is because of his offensive talent, and his shooting ability which significantly opens up the court for the rest of the team. Opposing teams recognize that Bargnani cannot be left along, and as a result, their help defence weakens. The value of this is clearly demonstrated by the +/- and fg% of his teammates (the better figure highlighted in green) at this link: http://i45.tinypic.com/4g5j47.jpg
Now, the results are perhaps not entirely statistically significant, and there are some flaws with the use of the +/- statistic, but it’s easy to see that the numbers are almost unanimously in favour of Bargnani. In particular, Amir Johnson is a completely different player, shooting 72% with Bargnani playing. The only player who performs worse is Ed Davis, who interestingly enough has a higher PER than Bargnani (and who many people think should start over Bargnani) but actually contribute more to the team when sitting on the bench with per 48 min +/- of -7.2 on the court, and 0.3 when on the bench.
Please understand that I am not saying that Bargnani is a superstar that can lead the Raptors to an NBA championship, as many of the league’s true superstars have much higher +/- differentials on and off the court (The Miami Heat have a +14 differential when Lebron James plays). I also believe that Bargnani has regressed quite significantly from last year, and I am as upset as anyone over his lack of effort at times. His clutch statistics in particular are terrible, but no more worse than any other Raptor, especially Lowry who has a tendency to chuck (18.9 fga vs 14.3 fga) in clutch scenarios at a paltry 27%.
What these numbers do say, however, is that Bargnani is a positive contributor for the Raptors, regardless of his personal stats. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for some other popular Raptors, such as Valanciunas and Lowry as demonstrated in the following chart at this link: http://i50.tinypic.com/11h82vd.
These numbers also demonstrates that Casey’s decision to play Bargnani over Davis is the correct decision and is founded on statistics, rather than because he is “forced to” by Colangelo. What particularly astounds me is that professional sportswriters seem to have been unaware of these statistics (http://www.tsn.ca/blogs/tim_chisholm/?id=409482), and demand Bargnani's trade.
As a last comment, I’ll add a word of comfort for the Bargnani haters. If Bargnani continues to regress offensively, astute teams will notice this, and the advantage of Bargnani spreading the floor will eventually be lost, as defences focus on more skilled scorers. In this scenario, he will truly be useless (and virtually untradeable).
Thanks for reading, and I welcome any comments and suggestions.
