RealGM

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Cool idea. I remember there was a study in one of my psychology textbooks that claimed being the home or away team in sports didn't affect your chances of winning.

It's neat to look at things like this to see if they are actually just myths.

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Clementine9 wrote:Cool idea. I remember there was a study in one of my psychology textbooks that claimed being the home or away team in sports didn't affect your chances of winning.

It's neat to look at things like this to see if they are actually just myths.

home team wins 63% of the time in the nba.

I don't think you are going to be able to isolate those two factors without taking a lot of other stuff into consideration.

For example, you have several different types of back to backs. Home then away vs. away then home. Then you have to factor the opponents' schedules. Are they on the second night of a back to back? Are they on a long road trip? You also have to factor the quality of the opponent on that night. Suppose its OKC and they are at home. Does it matter that it was a back to back? You probably lose anyway. But suppose Durant and Westbrook are out? That changes it completely.

I would also suggest looking at game times, time zone travel, and time of year. Back to backs may be more of a problem later in the season when players are tired than early in the season when they are fresh.

hankscorpioLA wrote:I don't think you are going to be able to isolate those two factors without taking a lot of other stuff into consideration.

For example, you have several different types of back to backs. Home then away vs. away then home. Then you have to factor the opponents' schedules. Are they on the second night of a back to back? Are they on a long road trip? You also have to factor the quality of the opponent on that night. Suppose its OKC and they are at home. Does it matter that it was a back to back? You probably lose anyway. But suppose Durant and Westbrook are out? That changes it completely.

I would also suggest looking at game times, time zone travel, and time of year. Back to backs may be more of a problem later in the season when players are tired than early in the season when they are fresh.

yes, the intention would be to go into everything such as timezones travelled and things of that nature.

in regards to your first query, I don't think you need to take into account anything about the opponent if the sample size is large enough.

sunny wrote:

Clementine9 wrote:Cool idea. I remember there was a study in one of my psychology textbooks that claimed being the home or away team in sports didn't affect your chances of winning.

It's neat to look at things like this to see if they are actually just myths.

home team wins 63% of the time in the nba.

Neato! Yeah, this study looked at a few sports so I guess in some sports it matters more than others. OR they were wrong

by doing this, I think it will help give a much objective measure of how a team stands aside from just their record.

pt differential + SoS is pretty fine, imo.

try teamrankings.com nice tools

http://www.teamrankings.com/nba/trend/w ... ds/no_rest

killersports.com .... nice queriablecdatabase

probably a bunch of betting articles...

Clementine9 wrote:Cool idea. I remember there was a study in one of my psychology textbooks that claimed being the home or away team in sports didn't affect your chances of winning.

It's neat to look at things like this to see if they are actually just myths.

a book called scorecasting done an amazing job on home field advantage.... i think they say it's mostly the refs. ... i could be wrong tho

tracey_nice wrote:

by doing this, I think it will help give a much objective measure of how a team stands aside from just their record.

pt differential + SoS is pretty fine, imo.

how is this fine if its missing several important variables that impact the results?

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http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... 9/nbarefs/

the one instant in another sport where it seems obvious is when notre dame plays football (vs. stanford last year..... vs. mich state this year)... tons of very favourable and questionable pass interference calls. i often cheer for ND......... maybe olympic women's soccer too.

Looking at winning percentage can be interesting, however I'm not sure what you're expecting to find out aside from rest being a factor in winning. Of course knowing how much of a factor it is would play a role in planning rotations and setting realistic objectives during long road trips.

But I'd be interested in looking into style of play, and how rest affects how a team naturally (or deliberately?) changes how they play.
You could take the 4 factors (shooting, taking care of the ball, rebounding and fouling) both offensively and defensively, and look at the league-wide differences over a season depending on rest.

To begin with, for example, only take the successful team for each game, and look at how such teams alter their style of play to compensate for the lack of energy and still win.

It would be interesting if, say, we realize that, on a back-to-back, you're better off focusing on forcing turnovers rather than winning the rebounding battle or successfully avoid fouling. What if the key to winning was to game-plan according to both teams' relative energy level?

I r confused.

Why did the OP delete everything?

can mods delete - will make new thread when my data is complete/fixed.

sorry about this

Damn it Sunny

This was an odd post...

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