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Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's future?

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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#61 » by Double Y » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:54 am

FluLikeSymptoms wrote:But I wanna be a scientist, too.

Well not everyone can be rocket scientists...we need people to flip burgers too.... :P

No seriously, focus on the last columns (Norm 2, Norm 3, and Norm Adj). Norm = normalized, which means adjusted so that they are comparable; in this case points per shot attempt for 2s, 3s, and 2s including free throws. The higher, the more points per shot attempted.

The columns for the first set is team, wins, losses, field goal made, field goal attempted, 2s made, 2s attempted, 2s made percentage, 3s made, 3s attempted, 3s made percentage, normalized 2 pts (2 times 2s made percentage), normalized 3 pts (3 times 3s made percentage).

The columns for the second set is team, free throws made, free throws attempted, adjusted 2s made (free throws made divided by 2 plus 2s made), adjusted percentage (adjusted 2s divided by 2s attempted), and normalized 2s after adjustment.

Hope that either clears everything up for you, or caused a mental collapse, in which case I can recommend a good psychiatrist....
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#62 » by Double Y » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:21 am

Oh oh oh...and to put a Raptors spin on things, last year, the Raptors scored 0.96 points per two point shot attempt and 1.03 per three point shot attempt (this is not a very large discrepancy as compared to most other teams). Adjusted for free throw attempts, however, the number jumps to 1.25. This suggests comparatively speaking, the Raptors get to the free throw line a lot more often relative to their 2 pt shot attempts as compared to the rest of the league. The low norm 2 and norm 3 total, though, indicates they are not a good shooting team either way, and rely a lot on free throws to generate offense. Unfortunately, if you're not a team good at generating fouls (on you, not on the other team) or shoot free throws well, then you're in trouble. For the Raps, they made 1442 on 1831 attempts. Both are at the middle-high end of the league average (LA on top with 2289 attempts and 1584 made).

Efficiency wise (not in the previous stats), this ranks also in the upper middle, with Oklahoma on top at 82.83% and Dallas, San Antonio, and Golden State having better ft percentages. So all in all, it looks like last year we drew a lot of fouls, but can't shoot worth a lick! Maybe I should do one for this year, considering this is not applicable this year due to high turnover of players (or not).

team ftm fta ft%
AtlantaHawks 1158 1619 71.53%
BostonCeltics 1318 1698 77.62%
CharlotteBobcats 1546 2060 75.05%
ChicagoBulls 1343 1738 77.27%
ClevelandCavaliers 1380 1827 75.53%
DallasMavericks 1323 1669 79.27%
DenverNuggets 1505 2148 70.07%
DetroitPistons 1307 1870 69.89%
GSWarriors 1378 1744 79.01%
HoustonRockets 1573 2087 75.37%
IndianaPacers 1429 1915 74.62%
LAClippers 1342 1888 71.08%
LALakers 1584 2289 69.20%
MemphisGrizzlies 1349 1746 77.26%
MiamiHeat 1423 1887 75.41%
MilwaukeeBucks 1251 1700 73.59%
MinnesotaT-wolves 1515 2042 74.19%
BrooklynNets 1432 1958 73.14%
NOrleansHornets 1269 1636 77.57%
NYKnicks 1313 1729 75.94%
OrlandoMagic 1026 1359 75.50%
Philadelphia76ers 1004 1377 72.91%
PhoenixSuns 1203 1618 74.35%
PortlandTrailBlazers 1304 1680 77.62%
SacramentoKings 1437 1869 76.89%
SanAntonioSpurs 1365 1725 79.13%
OklahomaCityThunder 1819 2196 82.83%
TorontoRaptors 1442 1831 78.75%
UtahJazz 1439 1883 76.42%
WashingtonWizards 1279 1746 73.25%
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#63 » by TankCommander » Wed Dec 18, 2013 5:58 am

elmer_yuck wrote:I've been saying for years that there are way too many 3-pointers. It's ruining the game, and it's getting worse.
I wouldn't be surprised if very soon over half the shots will be 3's.
They need to do something to get the average 3-point % down to about 33%.
I think some teams are now averaging over 40%.
They should move the line back. They won't do that in the corners, because they'll lose revenue from courtside seats. But they should move it back everywhere else.
I never understood the hate three point shots get. A lot of times these shots are created by others and it involves more ball movement and team work. Also never understood the love of the mid-range game and it leads to more ISO ball (which is ugly to watch).

I also love how hand-checking was replaced by the elimination of illegal defence, meaning less posts ups and ISOs and more ball movement and spacing. Though I do wish they would loosen up on contact and let them play more, plus all the review stoppage time.

But other than that NBA basketball is better than ever IMO
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#64 » by dballislife » Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:04 am

during season ya it can win u some games, but for playoffs u cant live by the 3
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#65 » by 5 Star » Wed Dec 18, 2013 6:18 am

You'd know this playing one game of 2k14
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#66 » by RealRapsFan » Wed Dec 18, 2013 12:07 pm

The stat heads have been saying forever now:

in the paint > 3 > mid range

This is the ideal shot choice when everything is equal.

Now not all players are equal ofcourse. Some are good at certain shots, while others are bad. There is nothing wrong with having a good mid range shooter - but they actually have to be good at it, and not just think they are. It doesn't matter if 'thats their game', they have to be good at 'their game'.

Teams (smart teams anyways) know this ofcourse and try to defend that accordingly. Teams try and control the paint and take away the 'best' shot in basketball. Well this leaves a great opportunity to take the 2nd best shot in basketball, the 3. The great thing about being good at the 2nd best shot in basketball is its as far away from the best shot as possible, so now defenses need to move away from the paint to the 3 pt line opening up the paint again.

But again you need to be good at them. If you aren't teams won't respect your shot enough to consistently put themselves out of the ideal defensive positions (unless you are playing against Bargnani ofcourse.... but that has nothing to do with respect)

There are alot of gimmicky type offenses or styles of play that work effectively in lesser leagues that won't in the NBA. Massive reliance on the 3 pt shot will only work if a team has 1) good 3 pt shooters 2) players who can score well in the paint after a team takes that 3 pt shot away or players who are so elite at scoring in the paint a team can't defend it one on one. 3) can also effectively defend. All that is neither cheap or easy to put together

Teams can/should take more 3 pt shots, but there is a point of diminishing returns depending on how good the players are at it, and what other things players on the team can or cannot do.
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#67 » by OakleyDokely » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:01 pm

tsherkin wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
We're seeing the death of the midrange game.


No we aren't. Lebron, Wade, Dirk, Durant, too many dominant scorers use the mid-range, includingess dominant guys like Westbrook, Rose and Paul, all of whom are still very good (or great, in Paul's case).

The mid-range game is very much alive.




You just named the very best players in the league who excel at almost everything.

What we don't see a lot of anymore are guys like Rip Hamilton whose speciality is the midrange game. Most guys coming out of school excel at slashing/dunking and/or outside shooting, without much inbetween.
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#68 » by tsherkin » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:07 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
We're seeing the death of the midrange game.


No we aren't. Lebron, Wade, Dirk, Durant, too many dominant scorers use the mid-range, includingess dominant guys like Westbrook, Rose and Paul, all of whom are still very good (or great, in Paul's case).

The mid-range game is very much alive.




You just named the very best players in the league who excel at almost everything.

What we don't see a lot of anymore are guys like Rip Hamilton whose speciality is the midrange game. Most guys coming out of school excel at slashing/dunking and/or outside shooting, without much inbetween.



Rip types weren't that common to begin with. Ray and Reggie both did it but were (or in Ray's case, is) more focused on 3pt shooting.

We see shots off of screens and curls fairly regularly and use a ton of Js out of PnR action.

There are plenty of mid-range scorers, but my point in highlighting the stars was to note a trend of moving im that direction because it is still such a key piece to the game.
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#69 » by MikeM » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:31 pm

Anything that lessens the reliance on star players is good in my books. Denver post-Melo was a good example and then GSW last year was an even better example and now Portland looks to be the best example of how you can have a mega-elite offense without a HOFer by using the 3 point shot and ball movement (teamwork).
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#70 » by Patman » Wed Dec 18, 2013 1:55 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:
We're seeing the death of the midrange game.


No we aren't. Lebron, Wade, Dirk, Durant, too many dominant scorers use the mid-range, includingess dominant guys like Westbrook, Rose and Paul, all of whom are still very good (or great, in Paul's case).

The mid-range game is very much alive.




You just named the very best players in the league who excel at almost everything.

What we don't see a lot of anymore are guys like Rip Hamilton whose speciality is the midrange game. Most guys coming out of school excel at slashing/dunking and/or outside shooting, without much inbetween.


This. Miami has turned Bosh into a mid-range specialist, using his other skills only sparingly. Bosh is even deadlier now from mid-range than when he was here. So Miami has guys who are great at the rim (LBJ, Wade), surrounded them with great 3pt shooters, and flanked by arguably the best mid-range release valve in the game in Bosh. They're doing it right.
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#71 » by Patman » Wed Dec 18, 2013 2:22 pm

tsherkin wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:You just named the very best players in the league who excel at almost everything.

What we don't see a lot of anymore are guys like Rip Hamilton whose speciality is the midrange game. Most guys coming out of school excel at slashing/dunking and/or outside shooting, without much inbetween.



Rip types weren't that common to begin with. Ray and Reggie both did it but were (or in Ray's case, is) more focused on 3pt shooting.

We see shots off of screens and curls fairly regularly and use a ton of Js out of PnR action.

There are plenty of mid-range scorers, but my point in highlighting the stars was to note a trend of moving im that direction because it is still such a key piece to the game.


While there are still highly-skilled mid-range scorers in the game, I think the league is moving away from the volume of mid-range shots, and using the mid-range as the first option in a set, whether it be iso or running someone off screens. It's still a reliable release valve, as most defenses now focus on containing penetration and corner 3's. Like I said, Miami does this very well with Bosh.
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Re: Lowe: Is heavy reliance on the 3-pointer the NBA's futur 

Post#72 » by tsherkin » Wed Dec 18, 2013 3:06 pm

Patman wrote:
tsherkin wrote:
OakleyDokely wrote:You just named the very best players in the league who excel at almost everything.

What we don't see a lot of anymore are guys like Rip Hamilton whose speciality is the midrange game. Most guys coming out of school excel at slashing/dunking and/or outside shooting, without much inbetween.



Rip types weren't that common to begin with. Ray and Reggie both did it but were (or in Ray's case, is) more focused on 3pt shooting.

We see shots off of screens and curls fairly regularly and use a ton of Js out of PnR action.

There are plenty of mid-range scorers, but my point in highlighting the stars was to note a trend of moving im that direction because it is still such a key piece to the game.


While there are still highly-skilled mid-range scorers in the game, I think the league is moving away from the volume of mid-range shots, and using the mid-range as the first option in a set, whether it be iso or running someone off screens. It's still a reliable release valve, as most defenses now focus on containing penetration and corner 3's. Like I said, Miami does this very well with Bosh.


This still isn't quite right, as the midrange has not been a huge focus for most teams, despite fond memories.

PnR. Penetration and Iso Post are the big three pillars, then ball movement for a guy looking to slash against a shifted defense.

Yes, in the early 2000s and very late 90s we saw a lot of stupid, low-quality iso ball, but that wasn't generally as prevalent in the 80s and early 90s. You have to to back to the previous streetball influx in the 70s to find a similar situation, and even then, there were lots of post-oriented teams.

The mid-range game has generally been what it should be, a complement, not a focus.

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