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In the wake of Masai Ujiri's phone interview today (Friday, June 6, 2014) at 3 P.M. on SID and TIM on the FAN590, a rather consistent idea became prevalent in his responses.

ON LOWRY SIGN-AND-TRADE TWEET:
- never discussed that with anyone or any team
- said that there were a couple tweets yesterday and it was crazy
- never discussed that never talked about it
- number 1 priority is that he is not afraid to sign Kyle Lowry
- that should be our number 1 priority
- you try to have back-up plans and have things in place if it doesn't go so well
- the first thing is first is to talk with your first business and that is what they are getting ready to do

ON TYSON CHANDLER TRADE and 'that type of player' ' rim protector' being on the team:
- that type of player, shot blocker, skilled big, pass a little, rim protector is what he likes but they are tough to find and they come at high a price
- he comes high a high number and how does it fit
- there are many steps
- we are still developing our players
- this summer is big for our team
- ROSS, VAL, DEMAR, PATTERSON how do these guys continue to get better
- not in a position to swing and get 1 guy
- continue to build and grow as a long team, when that time come and the right fit comes it will see

ON BOSH TO TORONTO RUMOUR:
- no reaction to the rumour
- there are so many rumours that get out there at some point

WHERE TO TAKE THE TEAM:
- Keep growing
- we are a young team and we will keep growing as a team
- doesn't know where all the tweet stuff comes from, people text him and ask him 'is it true, is it true'
- during the draft, he looked at his phone and saw tweets "is this for real, is this really going out in the media at this time?"
- we are growing as a team
- look at the fans and the success from last season
- time to grow and move on with this

GROWTH & SUCCESS: A Case Study

To understand the story of the Toronto Raptors of today, we must first take a stroll down memory lane.

The Toronto Raptors were founded in 1995. In their 19 years as a franchise in the NBA, they have won two (2) Atlantic Division titles [BOSH-lead 2007 and DEROZAN/LOWRY 2014] and seen one (1) second-round NBA Playoff-birth [VC 2001]. The Raptors are coming off their franchise record-setting 48-win season and a tough first-round 7-game series loss to the lower-seeded, more-experienced Brooklyn Nets.

Canada's lone NBA franchise has seen its fair share of the spotlight featuring multiple-time All-Star selections, Slam-Dunk Competition victories, and even a #1 overall NBA Draft Pick. However, a conversation with long-term Raps faithfuls will remind you of longer periods marked by misery over success.

During the summer months, the failure of last season is erased for 29-teams while 1 team's success is praised with accolade.

The 2014 Championship San Antonio Spurs demolished doubts of their label as an 'NBA Dynasty." With Coach Popovic's and Tim Duncan's 5th championship rings in 16 years (3 less than the the Toronto Raptors have been alive if you were taking notes) they have become a model of success and consistency for small(er)-market franchises.

REGRESSION TO THE NORM

In 19 years, Raptors fans have seen eight (8) head coaches, 13 years of failure to reach the post-season, a 14-24 (.368) play-off record and a 1-6 (.143) post-season series record.

In an argument that was used by many Andrea Bargnani (the former 2006 #1 Overall NBA Draft Pick) detractors, periods of short-term success do not form the statistical base for appropriate modelling of future outcomes. If a 13-game hot streak is enough for fans of one organization to debate a player's merit; a 16-year post-season appearance streak is a considerable reach.

We're talking about a completely different organizational system.

When I think about the Miami Heat, the New York Knicks, LA Lakers, I think about a paradigm that chews up and spits out players for the benefit of more wins. One has a tendency to see flash-in-the-pan players (Jeremy Lin'sanity') that are quickly traded in times of mediocrity when short-term success is placed higher than growth - organizational as well as personal. This is a lesson which former Raptors GM and 2007 NBA Executive-of-the-Year Bryan Colangelo is expected to learn in his current period of unemployment.

The 19 year-old Toronto Raptors franchise finds itself in a place where it has been in the past. Unexpected success coupled with manageable cap space; a division banner; a win-less playoff run; and increased expectations. Coach Dwane Casey might say his Raptors squad now find themselves, invariably, between "a rock and a hard place."

Masai Ujiri: More than Luck?

GM Masai Ujiri has found (READ:lucked?) himself into a position where a losing team kicked it into high gear just as he made his first move. He was looking to blow the team up early in the '13/'14 and start (re-)building assets. Once the team clawed into the playoffs, he was better able to 'evaluate' and see just how much 'value' all his players and contracts have. He could see who could play and who couldn't up close in the only place that matters. The Play-offs.

Why fix it if it isn't broken?

Now, Toronto cap space is still -slightly- tied up financially. There are dead contracts sitting on the books (Fields, Novak) but, that is far better than dead players (Bargnani, Jose's Defense, Rudy's Offense) as rotation players.

What's the icing on the cake? Age.

Demar, Ross, Valancuinas, 2Pat, Lowry. All relatively you to very-young and all contributing to a 3rd place Eastern Conference finish. Currently, fans new and old fear history repeating itself. After all, history tends to repeat itself.

Vince Carter. The trade and the demise.
Chris Bosh. The gutter again.
Peak; trough.
Peak; trough.

Derozan, Lowry (Drake?).
Our franchise sits at yet another precipice.

Introducing: The Three P's

Ken Wilber, an American writer, philosopher and mysticist talks about the 3 P's: Peak, Plateau and Permanent.


(thank you http://www.cleanlanguage.co.uk/ )
Key:
1. Acting with self-delusion, deceit and denial.
2. The process of becoming aware of what is true for you.
3. Acting out of what you know to be true.
4. The process of self-deluding, deceiving, denying.
5. The process of permanently becoming truthful with self (i.e the ‘last straw’).
6. The process of maintaining self-truthfulness while knowing you have the capacity to self-delude, deceive and deny.

Okay, hold on a second... Self-Delusion?

I know this may be getting a bit abstract, but, please bear with me.
Wilber describes the current state of the "hard" sciences as limited to "narrow science", which only allows evidence from the lowest realm of consciousness, the sensorimotor (the five senses and their extensions). What he calls "broad science" would include evidence from logic, mathematics, and from the symbolic, hermeneutical, and other realms of consciousness. Ultimately and ideally, broad science would include the testimony of meditators and spiritual practitioners. [Wikipedia]

Logic and mathematics starts to ring true with the increased reliance on statistics, analytics and modelling of the new NBA game. So let's circle back to the model above.

Visually, the image above has some similarities with our 19 years as a franchise. With periods of rather meagre success (PEAK) we have become aware of who we are as a franchise. Our best teams played with increased defense and dynamic offensive players. These successes were short-lived and mired by the periods of doubt, deceit and off-season buzz-words that sell season tickets.

I believe we now find ourselves at point (3) again. Our team has now become aware with what makes them successful - sharing the ball, engaged and focused defense, balanced, unselfish, determined scoring within learned offensive sets.

The team must now grow from past errors and nurture this high level of production. It is important to note that this does not solely fall on the players. The coaching staff, scouting personnel, GM and players must all contribute to the next step.

San Antonio Spurs: An Icon of Permanence

If and NBA championship is the goal of every NBA franchise (let's say that is the maximum on the y-axis) then the "Permanent" portion of the image models San Antonio's ability pretty well. Multiple championships over the course of many years, consistent high-level play, interwoven with periods of doubt or adversity that aid adjustment (something the 2013 Spurs haven't forgotten). Is it any wonder that the success found in the 'Permanent' section of the model is 'greater' than the level of success found in those steps before it?

If this model is correct, then the difference between Spurs success and Past Raptors success is 'truthfulness.' In the past, a 'reaching pick' like that made in last night's 2014 NBA Draft would have been sold as "Hope," "Dreams" or some other buzz word. The message of the off-season would be "Organic Growth," "Making a Splash," ad infinitum.

Once the leadership begins to believe their own self-deceit (Vince Carter no longer dunking, Bosh taking extra time off during a playoff push to protect his Miami free agency health) and forgetting the truths that built their success, the unravelling beings.

Masai seems to have chosen a different path.

We've set a record in franchise wins.
We've won our division.
We've seen great individual accolades.*

Now.

We must grow as a team and as a franchise.
Players have to improve.
The organization has to make long-term decisions as well as short-term ones.

Most importantly, we must understand that sports is a very HUMAN activity

It is the same reason that fans have favourites, buy gear, and listen to the Team's Story.
If a player - If a team does not connect with its support base; it stands on thin ice. In a fan-base like Toronto's, those that play with heart will relate far more than those with high Caliper scores.

If a rather insignificant late-round draft pick (historical sampling holds here) can:
- at best yield the next international superstar
- at least change the lives of a humble teenager's family
Then isn't somewhere in-between just right?

With this draft pick, the franchise has shown that we value.
We've placed our bets on raw athleticism, a penchant for learning and growth, long-term success, and nurturing young talent.
All indications from Masai point to maintaining the 'self-truths' in re-signing Lowry and Patterson.

Will the franchise once again simply peak - or will it plateau?

Either way, free agency and summer league looms -- and the the 20th Anniversary Season is coming. Will we have learnt anything from our past?

But more importantly, will the fans grow with the team or expect the same cycle of rebirth seen in the past?


Thanks for reading!

*(Demar 1st time All-star, Lowry snub conversations, Ross 51, BigV double-doubles in playoffs and DUI) ... maybe not that last one

Bump for sadness (and ninja edits)

Was this simply TL;DR?
Can anyone offer notes on what I should improve if I am to do any future analyses?

Mikistan wrote:Bump for sadness (and ninja edits)

Was this simply TL;DR?
Can anyone offer notes on what I should improve if I am to do any future analyses?

I read it. I just didn't know what to respond with

Just felt too much like school to me. Need to make it more fun.

C_Money wrote:Just felt too much like school to me. Need to make it more fun.

Haha alright, thanks for the honesty
do you mind if I ask your age bracket?

Great recap! Didn't feel like much analysis, but the post was full of interesting points almost reminds me of a video, rather than a written piece.

Keep up the good work Mikistan!

I like the conceptual framework, but I think whether Lowry re-signs will ultimately show you whether we are in a new paradigm or we simply deluded ourself.

If he re-signs as a UFA, then this winning culture/organic growth will give us a foothold.
If not, then it is simply business as usual for the Raps. We deluded ourselves into thinking we could win from the middle and wasted yet another year.

At least we embraced the cold! #wethenorth

Scraptor wrote:I like the conceptual framework, but I think whether Lowry re-signs will ultimately show you whether we are in a new paradigm or we simply deluded ourself.

If he re-signs as a UFA, then this winning culture/organic growth will give us a foothold.
If not, then it is simply business as usual for the Raps. We deluded ourselves into thinking we could win from the middle and wasted yet another year.

At least we embraced the cold! #wethenorth

Well, here we are a little later.

I think some of this starts to ring true - especially with the PP signing. We are starting to stabilize as a franchise and understand what makes us succeed - both socially in the community/market and on the court.

We have emerged from the darkness of BC and Bargnani and been given the Light of Masai.

Interesting good piece think you are correct in that Lowry resigning was a tipping point he had opportunity to sign with others choose the Raptors because he saw potential in the team that he could lead.

Interesting read

Interesting read. What's a little sad though is how true it is that sharing the ball offensively and using learned sets is what the team should do, but come playoff time it reverts to Demar and Lowry chucking. Best chance of sustained success to me is to utilize the now two 7 foot top 10 picks who are both very efficient and solid shooters to boot.