RealGM

So I was watching the game last night and I saw Lou miss some 3's at the end of a couple of quarters and I started to realize this happens a lot. Went into the game thread and noticed many other fans were annoyed by this as well. I did some quick research and have put the stats together. Look below:

Jazz Game - 2014/12/03
1st quarter - Made 3 (27.9 seconds)
2nd Quarter - Missed 3 (10 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (26.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 3. Total points 3
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (2)

Kings Game - 2014/12/02
1st quarter - Missed 3 (25.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Missed 3 (5.5 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 2 (12.8 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 3. Total points: 0

Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (1)

Lakers Game - 2014/11/30
1st quarter - Missed 2 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Missed 3 (38.9 seconds)
3rd quarter - Dunk (30.7 seconds)

Shots Taken: 3. Total points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (3)

Dallas Game - 2014/11/28
1st quarter - Missed 3 (33.6 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (17.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (2)

Atlanta Game - 2014/11/26
1st quarter - Made 2 free throws (12.9 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 (30.4 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 5
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (1)

PHX Game - 2014/11/24
1st quarter - Missed 2 (30.4 seconds)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

Cleveland Game - 2014/11/22

1st quarter - Missed 2 (10.3 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (17.5 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (<0 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 3. Points: 3
Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (1)

Milwaukee Game - 2014/11/21
1st quarter - Made 3 (23.9 seconds)
2nd quarter - Made 3 (23.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 3 free throws (30.7 seconds)

Shots Taken: 3. Points: 9

Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (3)

Memphis Game - 2014/11/19
-None taken

Shots Taken: 0. Points: 0

Utah Game - 2014/11/15
3rd quarter - Missed 2 (24.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

Bulls Game - 2014/11/13
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (5.9 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (0)

Orlando game - 2014/11/11
3rd quarter - Missed 3 (2.5 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (0)

Philadelphia Game - 2014/11/09
3rd quarter - Made 2 (14.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (0)

Washington Game - 2014/11/07
2nd quarter - Missed 3 (46.4 seconds)
3rd quarter - Missed 2 (58.4 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 0
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (2)

Boston game - 2014/11/05
3rd quarter - Made 2 (15.9 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

OKC Game - 2014/11/04
-none

Shots Taken: 0. Points: 0

Miami game - 2014/11/02
3rd quarter - Made 2 freethrows (19.9 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 1. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (0). More than 14 seconds (1)

Orlando Game - 2014/11/01
1st quarter - Missed 2 (17.9 seconds left)
3rd quarter - Made 2 freethrows (3.5 seconds left)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (1). More than 14 seconds (1)

Atlanta Game - 2014/10/29
1st quarter - Missed 3 (7.9 Seconds)
3rd quarter - Made 2 (4.9 seconds)

Shots Taken: 2. Points: 2
Less than 14 seconds (2). More than 14 seconds (0)


Shots Taken: 32. Points: 32
Less than 14 seconds (12). More than 14 seconds (20)

I'm no Hollinger but I know that 32 points on 32 shots isn't good efficiency. Not only is that concerning but the trend is what is more concerning. In the first 10 games, Lou only took 12 end of quarter shots so an average of 1.2 per game. However, in the next 9 games he has taken 20 end of quarter shots which is an average of 2.2 per game. So not only is the efficiency low but the attempts are increasing. Now I know some people will say it's just one possession but the concern is that in the playoffs every possession counts. These are the type of bad habits the team needs to avoid for the long run. Hopefully Casey changes this and starts to run some actual plays at the end of the quarter rather than a Lou Williams isolation.

For popular demand I have added the amount of time left on the clock for each possession when the Raptors got the ball back. I've broken it down from less than 14 seconds left and more than 14 seconds left as IMO I believe 14 seconds is enough time to run a proper play. I didn't go as far as calculating the averages for points scored with less than 14 seconds vs more than 14 seconds but I may do that later this afternoon.

I don't mind Lou taking the end of quarter shots, although I'd still prefer Lowry, but it shouldn't be a contested 3 every single time

I rather lou chuck that shot, and make a 1:1 points to shots, than DD bounce it off his own foot

Thanks for doing this.

32 Points on 32 Shots is not good efficiency when you have a full 24 second shotclock to create a shot. If you want to run the clock down and take a shot with zero time left, its not too shabby.

I do agree that Casey needs to mix it up a bit and run a few plays and use Lou isolation as a backup plan, not the primary one.

I agree.. the first few times it was good.. but we need to run some plays end of quarters... this end of quarter ISO Lou isn't going to keep working.

They should mix it up a bit. I'm sure the advance scouting report says "Lou will shoot all end of quarter shots, ignore the other 4 guys on the floor".

Mad Balla 15 wrote:every possession counts.

One thing that people are missing from this analysis is that he's VERY good at running out the clock in these scenarios. This is the appeal to the coaching staff.

As the OP has said, every possession counts and when you can get an (arguably) decent shot but guarantee the other team doesn't get a shot, there is huge value in that.

1pps is pretty decent for end of quarter shots. Those are always the hardest, everyone knows your going to shoot.

Any stats to compare the average for points per shot at the end of the quarter?

Im not concerned, most of those were end of 1st/3rds (if OP is correct), 26 of 32 (81%). Its more a function of a) White Squad playing to close Qs, and b) Lou being the best option on the bench in late clock scenarios, unless youre advocating more GV (whos been starting lately anyways).

Great stuff nonetheless, thanks OP.

Even if the coaching staff thinks Lou is the best option, you still need to mix it up a bit to keep opposing teams on their toes. Right now everybody and their mama knows its going to be Lou with a step back 3.

Not that this is the right thing to do, but could it be possibly that Casey allows Lou to continuously do this to manage his ego? He's the 2nd best scorer on this team, plays around 21 mpg, giving him the ball in those circumstances validates his importance to the team, and would keep him from complaining about the minutes. This is just speculation on my part

Dino-Might wrote:32 Points on 32 Shots is not good efficiency when you have a full 24 second shotclock to create a shot. If you want to run the clock down and take a shot with zero time left, its not too shabby.

Exactly. Without the context of the time on the shot clock, these stats don't tell the whole story.

I think a 50%TS is pretty good for end of quarter isos, I would think 40% is probably around league average and I base that on nothing

Last-second shots are usually iso attempts, no matter who takes them. It's hard to get the ball past half-court, and run a play in less than 5 seconds that gets your player a decent look. Iso is pretty much the only way to go, and we already know Isolation plays aren't usually the most efficient plays in basketball.

If it's not Lou taking the shot in isolation, it will be Lowry, but the play will still be the same iso shot with either one simply breaking down their defender, and trying to get enough space to get a clean look. And I'm totally fine with either one taking that shot.

I do, however, have a problem, when there's 20+ seconds on the clock and they run the clock down to 2 and jack up a shot to end the quarter. 20 seconds is plenty of time to run a play, swing the ball, and get an open shot in rhythm.

I'd be interested to see how many of those shots Lou has taken were with 5-6 seconds left on the clock, and how many were with enough time to run a set play.

It's not great efficiency when you have 24+ seconds. I'd like a further analysis of how many seconds were actually left. 3 seconds is not plenty to create a GOOD play, heck, maybe not even 8-9 seconds.

I'd like to see Mr. "Three-Lou- One" Williams engaged in a Pick and pop with Pat2. Maybe start the play with 5 seconds left to have enough time for a pass to Pat2 and the shot. Or he could just go left and do the awkward half pump fake 3 pointer lol

The real question is what are his stats in end of the quarter iso after he declared that he wasn't the captain?

Assuming each shot is one possession, 1ppp is about league average (although this sample is way too small) - if Lou made one or two more of those shots, he'd be scoring at a league-best clip on a per possession basis.

If you assume generally that end of quarter shots are more difficult that the average possession (defense keyed in, pressure, etc.), he's doing just fine. I imagine it's hard to find reliable end of quarter ppp stats that exclude 4th quarters (intentional fouls skew it), hail marys, and ultra-short clock situations (sub 5 seconds let's say).

Also agree that it provides him with an ego boost, gives the team a reliable go-to, and eventually if he continues at this rate, may force teams to double or change how they're defending which will provide us with opportunities to counter.

What I'm annoyed by is the fact that all he does is a step back jumper.

FOR GOD'S SAKE LEARN TO DRIVE TO THE BASKET SOMETIMES, PUMP FAKE, CROSS ETC.