Re: The Ringer: Raptors should consider blowing it up
Posted: Mon Mar 27, 2017 5:44 pm
lol at ever reading the ringer
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timdunkit wrote:There is quite a history of teams blowing it up too early and then landing in mediocrity for a very long time.
It's true that without a few lucky breaks, this team will likely never taste the finals. But that doesn't mean we should blow it up. There is a great chance here to sustain a 50+ win team for the next 2-4 years, enjoy a good product and build some history.
For many years, there were clamours for the Spurs to start rebuilding and trade away TP/Manu/TD. But they likely wouldn't have won their 2014 ring if they had done that. Dallas doesn't win in 2011 if they blow it up & traded Dirk after their 67 win team failed to do anything significant and were mediocre for the next few years. Detroit reached ECF after ECF, after their 2004 championship win, and then decided to retool/rebuild and have been trying to get back ever since. Don't you think their fans would have liked 2 more years of competing at a high level before starting over again? Should the Rockets trade James Harden and start rebuilding/tanking right now because they aren't any closer to championship team then we are?
Timing is really important in the NBA. We are unfortunate that we are stuck in the ECF while Lebron James has been in his prime (and continues to be in his prime). But this mentality that if you aren't a real contender (and there is only 3 in the league right now), then you have to tank or else you are wasting your time is really perplexing. There is this assumption that the grass is greener when you are tanking because you have a chance at a talent that could bring you to that championship status. That chance is worth it to some fans more than having a high great team that is just not good enough. For some reason, fans are more comfortable with absolutely trash basketball because they feel the rules are in their benefit then watching good basketball (because the rules don't really help you get over that hump). Despite there being countless evidence that teams have struggled to build a decent team despite multiple years in the lottery.
It's true we don't have the generational talent that the Spurs had to win a championship or give our teams potential to win one. We also don't have a championship ring like Detroit, so that we can sustain some belief in our core for a foreseeable future. But we have several players entering into their primes that have proven to be a winning product. Lowry/DeMar/JV/Ibaka should be a really good team for the next few years. I'd rather we ride out their primes and then start rebuilding once that's over.
I look at a team like Indiana, who should still be competing for a ring or being a great team, but had their team break up early because Hibbert couldn't keep himself together and Lance's ego got too big. Now their team is stuck being mediocre (not even pretender status) with a star player who is going to leave. The grass isn't always green on the other side, whether that's retooling or rebuilding from something that is proven.
What's more important is whether you have someone in charge who understands timing and asset management. Masai seems to get that and when it's time, I trust him to blow it up. We aren't Chicago or NY, holding onto aging stars and old players that have not proven to be a winning team. Our path is similar to that of the Grizzlies, always a great team but never good enough to win. And it confuses me that so many fans can't accept or enjoy that.
Toronto isn’t a traditional landing spot for free agents, but if a player did want to go north, the Raptors would need to move valuable contributors like Jonas Valanciunas, DeMarre Carroll, and Cory Joseph to create the necessary cap space.
timdunkit wrote:There is quite a history of teams blowing it up too early and then landing in mediocrity for a very long time.
It's true that without a few lucky breaks, this team will likely never taste the finals. But that doesn't mean we should blow it up. There is a great chance here to sustain a 50+ win team for the next 2-4 years, enjoy a good product and build some history.
For many years, there were clamours for the Spurs to start rebuilding and trade away TP/Manu/TD. But they likely wouldn't have won their 2014 ring if they had done that. Dallas doesn't win in 2011 if they blow it up & traded Dirk after their 67 win team failed to do anything significant and were mediocre for the next few years. Detroit reached ECF after ECF, after their 2004 championship win, and then decided to retool/rebuild and have been trying to get back ever since. Don't you think their fans would have liked 2 more years of competing at a high level before starting over again? Should the Rockets trade James Harden and start rebuilding/tanking right now because they aren't any closer to championship team then we are?
Timing is really important in the NBA. We are unfortunate that we are stuck in the ECF while Lebron James has been in his prime (and continues to be in his prime). But this mentality that if you aren't a real contender (and there is only 3 in the league right now), then you have to tank or else you are wasting your time is really perplexing. There is this assumption that the grass is greener when you are tanking because you have a chance at a talent that could bring you to that championship status. That chance is worth it to some fans more than having a high great team that is just not good enough. For some reason, fans are more comfortable with absolutely trash basketball because they feel the rules are in their benefit then watching good basketball (because the rules don't really help you get over that hump). Despite there being countless evidence that teams have struggled to build a decent team despite multiple years in the lottery.
It's true we don't have the generational talent that the Spurs had to win a championship or give our teams potential to win one. We also don't have a championship ring like Detroit, so that we can sustain some belief in our core for a foreseeable future. But we have several players entering into their primes that have proven to be a winning product. Lowry/DeMar/JV/Ibaka should be a really good team for the next few years. I'd rather we ride out their primes and then start rebuilding once that's over.
I look at a team like Indiana, who should still be competing for a ring or being a great team, but had their team break up early because Hibbert couldn't keep himself together and Lance's ego got too big. Now their team is stuck being mediocre (not even pretender status) with a star player who is going to leave. The grass isn't always green on the other side, whether that's retooling or rebuilding from something that is proven.
What's more important is whether you have someone in charge who understands timing and asset management. Masai seems to get that and when it's time, I trust him to blow it up. We aren't Chicago or NY, holding onto aging stars and old players that have not proven to be a winning team. Our path is similar to that of the Grizzlies, always a great team but never good enough to win. And it confuses me that so many fans can't accept or enjoy that.
Mikistan wrote:Risk101 wrote:This article should have been made after the playoffs. He now will go back and scream about how right he was if we don't make it to the eastern conference finals.
I love how he said the last 3 years have ended in playoff disappointment
ECF last year isn't a disappointment unless you assumed you could beat the Cleveland Lebrons
Double Helix wrote:There will be a time to tank and rebuild but now is too soon. If we lose Lowry and Ibaka for nothing I'll be far more open to a tear down but if both want to be here and keep this quality TV show alive for a few more seasons I'm game.
GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Mikistan wrote:Risk101 wrote:This article should have been made after the playoffs. He now will go back and scream about how right he was if we don't make it to the eastern conference finals.
I love how he said the last 3 years have ended in playoff disappointment
ECF last year isn't a disappointment unless you assumed you could beat the Cleveland Lebrons
It was a disappointment to me cuz the series wasn't close. I'd rather lose in 4 by 10 points per game then have the performance we had. By a fair bit actually. But that's just me, and probably not a lot of other people would agree.
ropjhk wrote:Essentially the article says that Toronto won't win a championship with this core and their best chance to win a championship is to sell high right now and rebuild.
Of course the article ignores the fact that the Raptors are a historically bad team and that any level of success is something to be celebrated. I think most of us have come around to enjoying the run this core is having and would like to see it through to the end regardless of whether we end of with a championship or not.
Mikistan wrote:GreatWhiteStiff wrote:Mikistan wrote:
I love how he said the last 3 years have ended in playoff disappointment
ECF last year isn't a disappointment unless you assumed you could beat the Cleveland Lebrons
It was a disappointment to me cuz the series wasn't close. I'd rather lose in 4 by 10 points per game then have the performance we had. By a fair bit actually. But that's just me, and probably not a lot of other people would agree.
Don't get me wrong, Lebron clearly wasn't trying against us, and was probably okay to lose a couple in Toronto because it meant a little bit more practice time before the finals with his guys (after sitting for extended periods due to 4-0 sweeps to that point).
But when you look at the Toronto Raptors progression on paper:
1st round
1st round
ECF
To say that all 3 of those seasons ended in disappointment is hyperbole.
Technically 29 of 30 seasons end in disappointment...
Sherlock wrote:ropjhk wrote:Essentially the article says that Toronto won't win a championship with this core and their best chance to win a championship is to sell high right now and rebuild.
Of course the article ignores the fact that the Raptors are a historically bad team and that any level of success is something to be celebrated. I think most of us have come around to enjoying the run this core is having and would like to see it through to the end regardless of whether we end of with a championship or not.
I wanted to quote this, because to me this is the most important point that's being overlooked by most in this thread.
Yes, all of us here are raptors fans. We were Raptors fans when the team sucked before, we'll be raptors fans when the team will suck in the future, and we'll be Raptors fans when the team eventually wins a championship.
It's important to remember that the majority of those in, around and associated with the NBA are not Raptors fans. And for a long time, their view of the Raptors has been that this is a losing franchise.
Think of the Clippers. It's taken ~6 solid years of the Chris Paul/Blake Griffin era to work off the stench of ~30 years of losing under Sterling. But now, when you think of the Clippers, you don't think of a sad sack franchise, you think of an attractive team with a good owner, respected coach/GM and a franchise with a winning culture (despite them not having won the championship).
The Mavs were a wasteland prior to Dirk's arrival -- if they'd blown it up after a couple of playoff disappointments in the face of extremely strong competition like the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, Kobe/Gasol Lakers, Duncan Spurs, etc. they'd still be a wasteland now. But instead, people will now think of Dallas as a winning franchise for the foreseeable future, even when they have down years.
The Raptors similarly are in the midst of rebranding themselves as a cool, respectable and winning franchise.
- No longer waiting for the draft lottery, now it's the Conference Finals.
- No longer losing every big free agent, now it's "I am Toronto".
- No longer Kardinal/TDot, now it's Drake/The 6.
- No longer cold, now it's "We the North"
If the Raps blow it up now, that long-term perception of the Raptors comes back and hangs over them yet again. It's a place that can't keep stars, it's a losing franchise, it's cold. Instead of Dallas or the Clips, they'd be like Charlotte*, yes they had that short run in the 90s with LJ and Zo, but it's not really a city associated with winning.
We're not the Celtics or the Lakers, or hell even the Knicks (who even when they aren't winning are still being talked about).
In this era of free agency and 4/5 year contracts, for the Raptors' next 20 years to be more successful than the last 20 years, the Raptors have to maximize this winning period and firmly associate their brand with winning -- even if they don't win championships with this core.
*and yes I know I'm mixing franchises between the old Hornets/Pelicans and the new Bobcats/Hornets, but the point still stands
Double Helix wrote:Sherlock wrote:ropjhk wrote:Essentially the article says that Toronto won't win a championship with this core and their best chance to win a championship is to sell high right now and rebuild.
Of course the article ignores the fact that the Raptors are a historically bad team and that any level of success is something to be celebrated. I think most of us have come around to enjoying the run this core is having and would like to see it through to the end regardless of whether we end of with a championship or not.
I wanted to quote this, because to me this is the most important point that's being overlooked by most in this thread.
Yes, all of us here are raptors fans. We were Raptors fans when the team sucked before, we'll be raptors fans when the team will suck in the future, and we'll be Raptors fans when the team eventually wins a championship.
It's important to remember that the majority of those in, around and associated with the NBA are not Raptors fans. And for a long time, their view of the Raptors has been that this is a losing franchise.
Think of the Clippers. It's taken ~6 solid years of the Chris Paul/Blake Griffin era to work off the stench of ~30 years of losing under Sterling. But now, when you think of the Clippers, you don't think of a sad sack franchise, you think of an attractive team with a good owner, respected coach/GM and a franchise with a winning culture (despite them not having won the championship).
The Mavs were a wasteland prior to Dirk's arrival -- if they'd blown it up after a couple of playoff disappointments in the face of extremely strong competition like the Kobe/Shaq Lakers, Kobe/Gasol Lakers, Duncan Spurs, etc. they'd still be a wasteland now. But instead, people will now think of Dallas as a winning franchise for the foreseeable future, even when they have down years.
The Raptors similarly are in the midst of rebranding themselves as a cool, respectable and winning franchise.
- No longer waiting for the draft lottery, now it's the Conference Finals.
- No longer losing every big free agent, now it's "I am Toronto".
- No longer Kardinal/TDot, now it's Drake/The 6.
- No longer cold, now it's "We the North"
If the Raps blow it up now, that long-term perception of the Raptors comes back and hangs over them yet again. It's a place that can't keep stars, it's a losing franchise, it's cold. Instead of Dallas or the Clips, they'd be like Charlotte*, yes they had that short run in the 90s with LJ and Zo, but it's not really a city associated with winning.
We're not the Celtics or the Lakers, or hell even the Knicks (who even when they aren't winning are still being talked about).
In this era of free agency and 4/5 year contracts, for the Raptors' next 20 years to be more successful than the last 20 years, the Raptors have to maximize this winning period and firmly associate their brand with winning -- even if they don't win championships with this core.
*and yes I know I'm mixing franchises between the old Hornets/Pelicans and the new Bobcats/Hornets, but the point still stands
I agree with a lot of this. Biggest takeaway for me is that when the Clippers do decide to rebuild again post CP3/Blake Griffin/DeAndre/Doc they will have accumulated close to a decade of goodwill with the next generation's prospects and their families as far as being able to imagine winning in that market. They could tank for 3 straight years and those kids drafted will be talking about the Lob City era in a positive way and they will have long forgotten how horrible everything had been there before. That's why you want your rebuilds and compete modes to be cyclical. You buy patience and goodwill and good faith on the win-now cycle that you cash in for your rebuild cycle. The previous good years give your fans, your sponsors, the prospects, their families, coaches, GMs, etc legitimate optimism of better times up ahead because there's evidence that good times have recently happened. It's not rocket science. It starts that relationship with future stars on the right foot and makes them want to be the pillar of your franchise. The Raptors have been building that goodwill with this We the North era. We're showing basketball people that players will play prime years in this cold weather climate in the only market outside of America and all of this will help us when we do decide to rebuild in the future.
If you can go 3 straight tank years followed by a gradual rise up and then maybe 5-7 years of playoff basketball that hopefully maxes out at a Conference Finals or better and then blow it all up and focus on 3 straight tank years again and the same cycle it's a lot less painful with a lot more enjoyable basketball to watch over the course of your basketball-watching life than the equivalent of what the Kings have been doing over the past 11 years of irrelevancy. 11 years is way too long to go without playoff basketball. They've basically done the opposite of the Clippers and Raptors now. The next wave of talent doesn't even remember that Cow Bell era and why should they? It has to be cyclical and that means putting money and good trading and good team building into your process following a few years of outright tanking and collecting assets. If the assets you draft aren't for you then trade them for pieces that can help you more.