The fallacy of the new NBA Center

[Buff]

So we've been bombarded on how the NBA has changed and every center shoots 3s like Stephen. But, is it true? IN here I'm going to use a methodology rarely used around this parts: reality:

A simple list of all starting centers from here: http://www.espn.com/nba/depth
And their career 3 point shooting:

Atlanta, Dedmon 0.0
Boston, Horford .346
Brooklin, Mozgov .175
Charlotte, Howard 0.0
Chicago, R.Lopez 0.0
Cleveland, T.Thompson 0.0
Dallas, Noel 0.0
Denver, Jokic .327
Detroit, Drummond 0.0
Golden State, Pachulia 0.0
Houston, Capella 0.0
Indiana, Myles Turner .333
LA Clippers, Jordan 0.0
LA Lakers, B.Lopez .328
Memphis, M.Gasol .347
Miami, Whiteside 0.0
Milwaukee, Monroe 0.0
Minnesota, Towns .361
New Orleans, Cousins .330
New York, Hernangomez .267
Oklahoma, Adams 0.0
Orlando, Vucevic .297
Philadelphia, Embiid .367
Phoenix, Chandler 0.0
Portland, Nurkic 0.0
San Antonio, P.Gasol .368
Toronto JV 0.0
Utah, Golbert 0.0
Washington, Gortat 0.0
Sacramento, Koufos 0.0

So, what is reality saying? Reality says, first of all, that MORE THAN HALF of the league's starting centers do not shoot threes AT ALL. Whoah... but still, the other half should be good shooters, right? Well... let's tier this guys!

Tier 1: The almost never: Howard, Mozgov and DAJ shoot about .1 threes per game, which can be considered not shooting at all, and that brings the total non-shooters to 64% of all starting centers.

Tier 2: Less than a shot a game: Horford, Turner, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Hernangomez, Vucevic. This guys take the occasional three and for a reason, they combine for 32% on half a shot a game. Whichs takes us to: 87% of all starting centers are crappy to non-shooters

Tier 3: The shooters! Finally, this amazing FOUR guys represent the brave new NBA. So we ought to assume they are good, but are they? They are not, they shoot 34% on 2 shots a game. In general, only Embiid is to be worried about at 3 shots a game.

Now, and here is the kicker, to shoot twos and threes at the same level of efficiency one ought to shoot 2s at 1.5 times your opponent 3pt% or to use the opposite: if an unnamed player shoots a career .556 from 2, an opponent would have to shoot 37% from 3 just to be equally efficient.

Not a single starting center shoots 37%. NOT A SINGLE ONE.

So reality says: what are you guys talking about??

[dukes_wild]

I don't see anyone saying all Centers need to shoot 3s.

The center position isn't about shooting, it's about the ability to switch, defend on the perimeter, and be a good defensive presence.

[Double Helix]

Fair points but the transition away from the "traditional C" has less to do with offence and more to do with impact that player has within your entire team as more and more teams try to play small. Can your C guard stretch 4s manning the 5 spot for a stretch of the game? If so, he can play out there. If he can't he goes to the bench.

Teams are looking for Cs who can guard and switch multiple positions first and foremost. They want D at that spot. If your C can do that and space the floor he's very desirable but there aren't many of those to go around. 3&D Cs are coveted but defensive Cs who can switch are where teams are turning to next if they can't have both.


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[Yeezus_]

The new NBA center needs to be able to switch the PnR and guard smaller defenders bro.

[Buff]

Fair points but the transition away from the "traditional C" has less to do with offence and more to do with impact that player has within your entire team as more and more teams try to play small. Can your C guard stretch 4s manning the 5 spot for a stretch of the game? If so, he can play out there. If he can't he goes to the bench.

If you go through that list you will see very few switchers and 3 point defenders.

Teams are looking for Cs who can guard and switch multiple positions first and foremost. They want D at that spot. If your C can do that and space the floor he's very desirable but there aren't many of those to go around. 3&D Cs are coveted but defensive Cs who can switch are where teams are turning to next if they can't have both.

Someone has to ask themselves, can those stretch fives guard size, can they be exploited? Do they shoot more than 37% so they just *equal* a mildly scoring center at 556? Even if they do, can you devise a defensive strategy to account for that? San Antonio ran two old, defensively challenged big men and won a whole lot of games.

My point is, we haven't tried to punish smaller people inside. Is that crazy to try?

[Buff]

The new NBA center needs to be able to switch the PnR and guard smaller defenders bro.

Yo, bro... how many in that list fit *your* criteria (that, btw, seems taken from a list of JV's negatives) I guess I'll have to debunk that one as well and then you will probably come back with: "But... but... no beards!"

[PhilBlackson]

The only fallacy here is you claiming that there is a belief that every center shoots 3s.

[Too Late Crew]

So we've been bombarded on how the NBA has changed and every center shoots 3s like Stephen. But, is it true? IN here I'm going to use a methodology rarely used around this parts: reality:

A simple list of all starting centers from here: http://www.espn.com/nba/depth
And their career 3 point shooting:

Atlanta, Dedmon 0.0
Boston, Horford .346
Brooklin, Mozgov .175
Charlotte, Howard 0.0
Chicago, R.Lopez 0.0
Cleveland, T.Thompson 0.0
Dallas, Noel 0.0
Denver, Jokic .327
Detroit, Drummond 0.0
Golden State, Pachulia 0.0
Houston, Capella 0.0
Indiana, Myles Turner .333
LA Clippers, Jordan 0.0
LA Lakers, B.Lopez .328
Memphis, M.Gasol .347
Miami, Whiteside 0.0
Milwaukee, Monroe 0.0
Minnesota, Towns .361
New Orleans, Cousins .330
New York, Hernangomez .267
Oklahoma, Adams 0.0
Orlando, Vucevic .297
Philadelphia, Embiid .367
Phoenix, Chandler 0.0
Portland, Nurkic 0.0
San Antonio, P.Gasol .368
Toronto JV 0.0
Utah, Golbert 0.0
Washington, Gortat 0.0
Sacramento, Koufos 0.0

So, what is reality saying? Reality says, first of all, that MORE THAN HALF of the league's starting centers do not shoot threes AT ALL. Whoah... but still, the other half should be good shooters, right? Well... let's tier this guys!

Tier 1: The almost never: Howard, Mozgov and DAJ shoot about .1 threes per game, which can be considered not shooting at all, and that brings the total non-shooters to 64% of all starting centers.

Tier 2: Less than a shot a game: Horford, Turner, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Hernangomez, Vucevic. This guys take the occasional three and for a reason, they combine for 32% on half a shot a game. Whichs takes us to: 87% of all starting centers are crappy to non-shooters

Tier 3: The shooters! Finally, this amazing FOUR guys represent the brave new NBA. So we ought to assume they are good, but are they? They are not, they shoot 34% on 2 shots a game. In general, only Embiid is to be worried about at 3 shots a game.

Now, and here is the kicker, to shoot twos and threes at the same level of efficiency one ought to shoot 2s at 1.5 times your opponent 3pt% or to use the opposite: if an unnamed player shoots a career .556 from 2, an opponent would have to shoot 37% from 3 just to be equally efficient.

Not a single starting center shoots 37%. NOT A SINGLE ONE.

So reality says: what are you guys talking about??

What reality? The reality of the new NBA Center (meaning recent?)
Or the reality you are trying to b]create by taking guys career 3 point numbers which can span seasons going back 10 years plus when the NBA was different.

"Tier 2: Less than a shot a game: Horford, Turner, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Hernangomez, Vucevic. This guys take the occasional three and for a reason, they combine for 32% on half a shot a game. Whichs takes us to: [b]87% of all starting centers are crappy to non-shooters[/BTier 2: Less than a shot a game: Horford, Turner, Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Pau Gasol, Hernangomez, Vucevic. This guys take the occasional three and for a reason, they combine for 32% on half a shot a game. "

Last season :
Horford 3.6 attempts at 36%
Turner . 5 at 35%
P Gasol 1.9 attempts at an insane 54%
M Gasol 3.6 attempts at 39%
B Lopez 5 attempts at 35%

I'm getting tired of typing. You try to base your theory on data that is not current. These so called low attempt tier 2 guys who shoot little becuase they all shoot only 32% are in fact high % three point gunners.

The reality as it stands today is that the NBA has changed and that the number of Centers that shoot and hit 3s at a high rate is growing every year.



"

[Buff]

The reality as it stands today is that the NBA has changed and that the number of Centers that shoot and hit 3s at a high rate is growing every year.

Reality, in the form of my list, disagrees with you. Sorry.

Edit: I used Career stats. Explain to me how is that bad.

[Buff]

Fair points but the transition away from the "traditional C" has less to do with offence and more to do with impact that player has within your entire team as more and more teams try to play small. Can your C guard stretch 4s manning the 5 spot for a stretch of the game? If so, he can play out there. If he can't he goes to the bench.

Teams are looking for Cs who can guard and switch multiple positions first and foremost. They want D at that spot. If your C can do that and space the floor he's very desirable but there aren't many of those to go around. 3&D Cs are coveted but defensive Cs who can switch are where teams are turning to next if they can't have both.


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And to your point of guarding stretch 4s that shoot, here is the list of "bigs" that shoot more than 37% (remember, someone has to shoot more than 37% to be equally efficient as a .556 2pt shooter):

PPat 37.2
Marreese 37.2
K Love 37.3
K Durant 37.5
K Leonard 38
Ibaka 39.1
M Gasol 38.8
Frye 40.9

http://stats.nba.com/leaders/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StatCategory=FG3_PCT&PerMode=Totals

And note I include Durant and Kawi since they play the 4. Now, how many of those can guard JV?

[Patman]

In terms of offense from a C, I think passing from the high post is a more desirable trait than being able to shoot 3's.

[TdotRap4Lyfe]

Isn't JV 1 for 1 meaning he is 100% lol

[MixxSRC]

Hordord attempted 3 threes per game in playoffs while attempting 10 FGA overall. Look at his attempts during regular season as well. In 2015 it was 0.5 and in next year it was 3.1 Career stats are bad because they don't show the change and what's trending

[And1Skip]

I think should also analyze this stat not for starting centers but players that play minutes at center. For example, Pachulia is Warriors starting C but he only plays 18 mins a game. We all know that Draymond is the 5 in the death lineup.

[Buff]

Hordord attempted 3 threes per game in playoffs while attempting 10 FGA overall. Look at his attempts during regular season as well. In 2015 it was 0.5 and in next year it was 3.1 Career stats are bad because they don't show the change and what's trending

The same way as using last season only can introduce bias. But I acknowledge your point. Still, how many of those cases are there? Horford, Gasol, who else? And even THEN, they still do not shoot it at the required 37% so technically if they only shot 3s it will still be less efficient than a .556 2 point shooter.

And this is the currency, right? efficiency.

[jonny three time]

Two points to counter this odd crusade...

1. The center position has become all about defense, rim running and rolling hard to the basket.

2. Most of the centers you listed have their minutes limited considering they're starters. They may be their teams starting centers, but many are not their teams finishing centers. You're completely disregarding all the time on the court that a team doesn't play their starting center and their backup center is a 4 out of position, sometimes even a 3 out of position.

[Buff]

Two points to counter this odd crusade...

1. The center position has become all about defense, rim running and rolling hard to the basket.

2. Most of the centers you listed have their minutes limited considering they're starters. They may be their teams starting centers, but many are not their teams finishing centers. You're completely disregarding all the time on the court that a team doesn't play their starting center and their backup center is a 4 out of position, sometimes even a 3 out of position.

Tho odd crusade against reality, lol. Well, why don't you go and compile the data?

[I_Like_Dirt]

I think you're looking at this wrong. Yeah, it's true, not very many NBA Cs are able to space the floor with shooting and passing or play switches on either end of the floor. That's sort of the point as to why centers are dying in the modern NBA. Most of these guys simply can't adapt and as a result, there are fewer minutes being played by traditional Cs overall and they're less effective when they play.

[And1Skip]

Or pehaps in that same list above, just add beside the 3pt% number the MPG last season and I'm sure there may be a correlation between 3pt% and higher MPG.

Edit: of course there are outliers like Gobert, Whiteside, Thompson who's defensive abilities hide their inability to stretch the floor on offensive such that they are still net positive.

[YogurtProducer]

Fair points but the transition away from the "traditional C" has less to do with offence and more to do with impact that player has within your entire team as more and more teams try to play small. Can your C guard stretch 4s manning the 5 spot for a stretch of the game? If so, he can play out there. If he can't he goes to the bench.

Teams are looking for Cs who can guard and switch multiple positions first and foremost. They want D at that spot. If your C can do that and space the floor he's very desirable but there aren't many of those to go around. 3&D Cs are coveted but defensive Cs who can switch are where teams are turning to next if they can't have both.


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And to your point of guarding stretch 4s that shoot, here is the list of "bigs" that shoot more than 37% (remember, someone has to shoot more than 37% to be equally efficient as a .556 2pt shooter):

PPat 37.2
Marreese 37.2
K Love 37.3
K Durant 37.5
K Leonard 38
Ibaka 39.1
M Gasol 38.8
Frye 40.9

http://stats.nba.com/leaders/#!?Season=2016-17&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&StatCategory=FG3_PCT&PerMode=Totals

And note I include Durant and Kawi since they play the 4. Now, how many of those can guard JV?

All of them because their shooting forces JV to the bench