The fallacy of the new NBA Center

[Buff]

I will preface this by saying that I like JV.

I understand that 60% on 2s equals 40% on 3s; that isn't the end of the equation however.

I presume that you are familiar with the Four Factors:
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/factors.html

Basically, shooting% and possessions need to be accounted for. In your example, it takes 3 2 point attempts and 2 3 point attempts. For us to win by shooting inside the arc, we need to have 50% more possessions.

not necessarily, I frame it (4-10 vs 6-10) and it works out fine. When JV takes more than 10 shots he goes 6.some-11 which is not that far off the 6-10. And let alone the fact that none of these centers have taken 10 3s ever in a game, where you factor arms getting tired and all that.

That means, we need to win the rebounding battle, and have fewer turnovers than our opposition. Compounding that, I believe that long range shots result in more offensive rebounds. It's clearly an uphill battle. Any variance on shooting percentage from three makes it even harder for us to catch up.

This undermines an element of the argument rarely spoken of: JV is by far our best rebounder and he sets all of our screens (and set's them well due to size) that is cleverly omitted by the haters (and I'm clearly not accusing you of being one).

Now, with that said, I don't think that JV is bench fodder either. As a rookie, he showed the quickness to cover guys in space and I believe that he has been working on his dexterity all Summer long. If he can guard some stretch bigs and limit his shots to high percentage looks, he definitely has a role.

We need to find him on the PnR where he excels, unfortunately our guards are terrible/unwilling passers on that type of play.

[Too Late Crew]

For the sake of the current league, wouldn't it be more accurate to have last year's stats instead of career stats? I only checked a few, but some of the vets listed have modified their games to fit the new league.

Horford shot .355 on 3.6 threes a game last year; Brook Lopez .346 on 5.2 attempts; Cousins .375 on 5.6 attempts; Marc Gasol .388 on 3.6 attempts.

Recent data gives a slightly different picture on some players.

I addressed it a few pages back, but basically last year gives you a small sample, Horford can shoot 32% next year for all we care. But yeah, you also nailed it in the sense that the picture only changes slightly.

If you are talking about the current NBA there is simply no way you can use Data from 8 years ago and have any credibility. That's exactly what occurs when you used career 3 post numbers for Al Horford or Marc Gasol.

You simply cannot try to have a 400 game plus sample size and try to focus ion the modern NBA.

[Buff]

For the sake of the current league, wouldn't it be more accurate to have last year's stats instead of career stats? I only checked a few, but some of the vets listed have modified their games to fit the new league.

Horford shot .355 on 3.6 threes a game last year; Brook Lopez .346 on 5.2 attempts; Cousins .375 on 5.6 attempts; Marc Gasol .388 on 3.6 attempts.

Recent data gives a slightly different picture on some players.

I addressed it a few pages back, but basically last year gives you a small sample, Horford can shoot 32% next year for all we care. But yeah, you also nailed it in the sense that the picture only changes slightly.

That's not a great argument when someone's arguing there's a fundamental change in the game. It's not really easy to model, and assumptions about past performance may not hold well. Let's say Horford shoots 32% because he regresses to the mean - that doesn't mean the NBA hasn't changed, it may just mean he's a worse player because the game has changed.

So I don't think your approach to the data really helps given the basic premise you're challenging.

The point in general was to prove that (starting) centers are not good 3pt shooters. So if Horford sucks, my point gets reaffirmed as he moves towards his career numbers. But I have said time and again that I'm not pretending my approach to be of absolute correctness. If you agree that using last season is equally imprecise then we should consider the matter settled.

[lolwut]

Just to add some additional facts here about how the game is changed (and therefore how it's asinine to look at cherrypicked career numbers to try and prove a point about today's game):

2016-2017: Players classified by Basketball Reference a F-C, C-F, or C took 5813 3s and hit 2060 for a % of 35.4.

Five Years Ago, in 2011-2012, same positional classification: 1101 attempted 3s, with 320 made, for a % of 29.0.

In 5 years the number of 3s attempted by players who are classified as Centers in some way has risen 5.28X and the now make them at a clip that is essentially league average (League average is 35.75%).

Like it or not, the NBA is a very different game than it was even a short 5 years ago.

And if you look even further, a player like Dirk was really unique - big man with excellent ball skills and long range shooting. For years, people looked for "the next Dirk". We drafted our own in Bargnani.

Nowadays, stretch bigs in the draft are dime a dozen. Sure, most of them suck, but that's beside the point.

If you look at the types of players getting drafted in the first round, nowadays it's mostly skilled, mobile big men. Gone are the days of Mike Sweetney and Shelden Williams getting drafted top 10.

[XxIronChainzxX]

I addressed it a few pages back, but basically last year gives you a small sample, Horford can shoot 32% next year for all we care. But yeah, you also nailed it in the sense that the picture only changes slightly.

That's not a great argument when someone's arguing there's a fundamental change in the game. It's not really easy to model, and assumptions about past performance may not hold well. Let's say Horford shoots 32% because he regresses to the mean - that doesn't mean the NBA hasn't changed, it may just mean he's a worse player because the game has changed.

So I don't think your approach to the data really helps given the basic premise you're challenging.

The point in general was to prove that (starting) centers are not good 3pt shooters. So if Horford sucks, my point gets reaffirmed as he moves towards his career numbers. But I have said time and again that I'm not pretending my approach to be of absolute correctness. If you agree that using last season is equally imprecise then we should consider the matter settled.

That's not proving your point at all. All you've shown is that, historically, centers are not good 3 point shooters. But even on your own scale, Horford shooting 32% is a dramatic improvement over your mean. By your own point you'd still be off, and that also doesn't prove your more general point that the NBA isn't trending toward more 3pt shooting centers.

Beyond that, there's no real basis on which to say that Gasol or Horford would regress dramatically. There's no real precedent that you've shown to illustrate Cs upping their volume 3s efficiently and then plummeting back. We see that with guards sometimes but they never plummet to "bad", and Horford really just had 2 seasons on really similar shooting from the 3 (between 34-35%).

[LiSTWithLani]

For the sake of the current league, wouldn't it be more accurate to have last year's stats instead of career stats? I only checked a few, but some of the vets listed have modified their games to fit the new league.

Horford shot .355 on 3.6 threes a game last year; Brook Lopez .346 on 5.2 attempts; Cousins .375 on 5.6 attempts; Marc Gasol .388 on 3.6 attempts.

Recent data gives a slightly different picture on some players.

I addressed it a few pages back, but basically last year gives you a small sample, Horford can shoot 32% next year for all we care. But yeah, you also nailed it in the sense that the picture only changes slightly.

I have to interject, because I disagree with this logic. If you are discussing the 'new' NBA Center, then we must put emphasis on recency. Guys are changing their games to adjust to the 'new' archetype.

Again, as I stated in my initial post on the same page above; you need more possessions to equate 2s to 3s. If these bigs are hitting at .366 on 4.5 attempts per game from 3, that is equal to shooting .549, but on 6.75 attempts per game from 2.

How do you suppose that we come up with 2.25 more possessions?

[Buff]

I have to interject, because I disagree with this logic. If you are discussing the 'new' NBA Center, then we must put emphasis on recency. Guys are changing their games to adjust to the 'new' archetype.

Well, the problem is how much recency? Do you think that just last year paints a correct picture?

Again, as I stated in my initial post on the same page above; you need more possessions to equate 2s to 3s. If these bigs are hitting at .366 on 4.5 attempts per game from 3, that is equal to shooting .549, but on 6.75 attempts per game from 2.

How do you suppose that we come up with 2.25 more possessions?

4-10 vs 6-10, no need for more possessions.

[Too Late Crew]

I have to interject, because I disagree with this logic. If you are discussing the 'new' NBA Center, then we must put emphasis on recency. Guys are changing their games to adjust to the 'new' archetype.

Well, the problem is how much recency? Do you think that just last year paints a correct picture?

Again, as I stated in my initial post on the same page above; you need more possessions to equate 2s to 3s. If these bigs are hitting at .366 on 4.5 attempts per game from 3, that is equal to shooting .549, but on 6.75 attempts per game from 2.

How do you suppose that we come up with 2.25 more possessions?

4-10 vs 6-10, no need for more possessions.

You simply cannot try to make up for lack of "recent" data by using 9 year old data.

Yes last year does project a correct picture of RECENT play.

Are you arguing that 2009 data correctly reflects recent play?

[Axe Dragon]

In your opening statement you are disputing the thesis that the NBA has changed.

It would be interesting to see a comparison to 5 years ago and 10 years ago to see if it has or not.

The current snapshot doesn't answer the question and even though more than half of the centers currently don't shoot threes, perhaps the NBA is "changing".

Thanks,

Axe


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[vini_vidi_vici]

In your opening statement you are disputing the thesis that the NBA has changed.

It would be interesting to see a comparison to 5 years ago and 10 years ago to see if it has or not.

The current snapshot doesn't answer the question and even though more than half of the centers currently don't shoot threes, perhaps the NBA is "changing".

Thanks,

Axe


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

You can quibble with the formula, but its clear teams are eschewing the PostUp Bigs, and paint for more C&S/PaceNSpace type offenses.

Its become more difficult to force feed entry passes inside, whether on Rolls or PostUps because of how teams are protecting middle or (as Darren Erman, and the much maligned Mark Jackson, started the trend) to hyper switching/fronting post actions. That doesnt even get into the issues defensively, which is a whole other topic altogether.

[lolwut]

How do you think prime Sabonis (pre-injuries) would do in today's NBA? Would he be the best big man in the game?

[Basketball_Jones]

How do you think prime Sabonis (pre-injuries) would do in today's NBA? Would he be the best big man in the game?

Apparently he was athletic as hell before coming to the NBA. However, I don't think I've ever seen footage or anything like that. Only heard folklore. So, if it's athletic prime Sabonis pre NBA then probably.

[ruckus]

How do you think prime Sabonis (pre-injuries) would do in today's NBA? Would he be the best big man in the game?

I really wish that I could watch Sabonis in his prime. I mean, Portland Sabonis was still pretty good but he was in his 30s by the time he came stateside.

From what I've seen, he had range out to the 3, he could pass and, he could rebound. No doubt in my mind that he would be close to the perfect big for today's NBA.

[lolwut]

How do you think prime Sabonis (pre-injuries) would do in today's NBA? Would he be the best big man in the game?

Apparently he was athletic as hell before coming to the NBA. However, I don't think I've ever seen footage or anything like that. Only heard folklore. So, if it's athletic prime Sabonis pre NBA then probably.

Yeah, it's pretty much impossible to find proper videos of his USSR days. Everything about him is spoken of like a legend. From the few grainy clips you can find of him, he basically looked like a 7'3" Larry Bird.

[CoachJReturns]

How do you think prime Sabonis (pre-injuries) would do in today's NBA? Would he be the best big man in the game?

Apparently he was athletic as hell before coming to the NBA. However, I don't think I've ever seen footage or anything like that. Only heard folklore. So, if it's athletic prime Sabonis pre NBA then probably.

I think there's a couple highlights of Sabonis from the Olympics against he orginal(aka the real) Dream Team still. He had no problem competing against guys like David Robinson.
Sabonis was a freak as a center to the same extent as Wilt, Hakeem, Robinson, Shaq and any others I'm forgetting. Truly a beast.

[Buff]

You can quibble with the formula, but its clear teams are eschewing the PostUp Bigs, and paint for more C&S/PaceNSpace type offenses.

Its become more difficult to force feed entry passes inside, whether on Rolls or PostUps because of how teams are protecting middle or (as Darren Erman, and the much maligned Mark Jackson, started the trend) to hyper switching/fronting post actions. That doesnt even get into the issues defensively, which is a whole other topic altogether.

The point I was arguing was "teams are going with 3pt shooting centers", which the data clearly shows to be untrue. Now if the argument is "offenses are going away from post scoring" I'd also agree and you can see it in the same data as staring centers are not post-up bigs anymore.

[vini_vidi_vici]

You can quibble with the formula, but its clear teams are eschewing the PostUp Bigs, and paint for more C&S/PaceNSpace type offenses.

Its become more difficult to force feed entry passes inside, whether on Rolls or PostUps because of how teams are protecting middle or (as Darren Erman, and the much maligned Mark Jackson, started the trend) to hyper switching/fronting post actions. That doesnt even get into the issues defensively, which is a whole other topic altogether.

The point I was arguing was "teams are going with 3pt shooting centers", which the data clearly shows to be untrue. Now if the argument is "offenses are going away from post scoring" I'd also agree and you can see it in the same data as staring centers are not post-up bigs anymore.

That is not true, and its been evidenced in this thread.

[Buff]

That is not true, and its been evidenced in this thread.

What exactly is not true? That the vast majority of starting centers can not shoot it at all? Or that the rest is not very good at it?

[vini_vidi_vici]

That is not true, and its been evidenced in this thread.

What exactly is not true? That the vast majority of starting centers can not shoot it at all? Or that the rest is not very good at it?

You created a strawman here because your argument is "we've been bombarded on how the NBA has changed and every center shoots 3s like Stephen". Of course this has never been said (and also why I didnt post quoting you, because I dont want to argue semantics of your vague terminology), few argue that the Cs shoot 3s like the GSOAT. The NBA is infact changing though. Then you proceeded to use career numbers as some indicator.

The "vast majority" is really semantics, but relative to just 5 years ago (Using DarkKnights good post). Using all C/C-F per BBREF.

This is the top 10 in 3PTA in 12-13.



3 players were tied with 5 3PTAs. League avg that yr was 35.9 3PT%, 2 players shot above it.

16-17, players with > 5 3PTA.



We now have 25. League avg last yr was 35.8 3PT%, 9 players shot above that (look how many were close too).

Everything is showing you how the league is changing. The influence on 3s both volume/efficiency is high for ORTG. Relative to 5 yrs ago, not only are more Cs taking ATTs, but they are taking more in bulk too. Players are working on it, teams are implementing it.As an anecdote, Dwight Howard has been working on 3s since last yr.

“I’ve been working on my threes,” Howard said, “really trying to add some range to my game, which is gonna be weird for people to see, I guess, because they’re used to seeing me in the paint battling. But in order for me to play longer, I have to expand my game.”

If the argument is, well all Cs dont shoot 3s or "the vast majority" based on some random argument you are making, sure I guess you are right. The argument im disputing is "on how the NBA has changed" (which is why I responded to Axe), and it is infact changing toward more 5 out offenses, and more 3PT shooting bigs.

[DarkKnight]

That is not true, and its been evidenced in this thread.

What exactly is not true? That the vast majority of starting centers can not shoot it at all? Or that the rest is not very good at it?

I'll post it for you again since you ignored it the first time and continued spouting your easily provable lies:

2016-2017: Players classified by Basketball Reference a F-C, C-F, or C took 5813 3s and hit 2060 for a % of 35.4.

Five Years Ago, in 2011-2012, same positional classification: 1101 attempted 3s, with 320 made, for a % of 29.0.

In 5 years the number of 3s attempted by players who are classified as Centers in some way has risen 5.28x and they now make them at a clip that is essentially league average (League average is 35.75%).

The league HAS changed, the C position HAS changed, and you are WRONG.

/thread.