ESPN's wayyyy too early forecast 4 Raps: 6th in East

[LURKINSINCE2003]

How the **** is Washington ahead of us? Wall is overrated a f.

[Moose23]

How the hell can anyone justify ranking the Hornets over the Raptors?

Charlotte did not get better this off-season. Their starting 5 is soooo mediocre it's scary. Are they really to roll out a line up of:
Kemba Walker
Nic Batum
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Marvin Williams
Dwight Howard
...for extended periods of time? Kemba is awesome...but the rest are overrated, overpaid and at least 3 of those guys are one-dimensional guys for various reasons. MKG is straight up garbage on O and I'm also not so sure he is that great of a defender. Marvin Williams is making the money is making because is tall and can hit a 3 pointer... that's it. Nic Batum can do a lot of things...but he is no one's 2nd best player...more like a 4th option on a very good team. And Dwight? LOL. Try making a free throw before extending out to the 3 point line.

However...Frank Kaminsky manages to kill the Raptors with his 3 point shooting and Malik Monk might be a nice score off the bench...but dear God...that starting 5!

I will be shocked if that is their starting lineup.

Monk and Frank both start.

Kemba/Monk/Batum/Frank/Dwight

MCW/Lamb/MCW/Marvin/Zeller off the bench

[Kevin Willis]

LOL

It’s a statistical projection.

??? - statistical models can always be tweaked. Variations should be included or modified if they are always wrong which is the point, i don't think they mind being wrong about the Raptors.

You actually think the model was intentionally tweaked to underrate the Raptors? Take off the tinfoil hat..

Why wouldn’t they tweak it to undervalue the Lakers, Knicks, etc. Why the Raptors? Makes zero sense.

You are reading what you want to read. I am saying there is something wrong with the model if it is continually wrong. Plus they are not motivated to change it even though the variance's are off because it drives traffic. One of the teams it drives traffic for is the Raptors. I also back that with other "mistakes" that are continuously posted on this forum where ESPN is seen as slighting the Raptors.

I'll give you an example, I had a discussion with a friend about the 2016 playoff series against the Cavs and he said the refs gave a game to the Cavs. I said no way, the foul calls were pretty even and in the second half the calls were in favour of the Raptors. Then he pointed out the BB foul and a series of plays around that call that set the tone for the game and created seperation that the Raptors couldn't make up. Basically he's saying it's not obvious what they did but when you look at everything in it's entirety and the timing of the calls it raised questions. I'm saying their model needs tweaking and the fact year after year Raptors totals are low is not enough of an incentive for them to change. At the end of the day it goes towards their narrative that a pissed of Raptors fanbase drives traffic. Are they doing it just to drive up viewership? Of course not but - like that game - it doesn't hurt in getting the result they want. I will also say pissing off the Lakers, Knicks fanbase also drives traffic.

[Mr.Raptorsingh]

How the hell can anyone justify ranking the Hornets over the Raptors?

Charlotte did not get better this off-season. Their starting 5 is soooo mediocre it's scary. Are they really to roll out a line up of:
Kemba Walker
Nic Batum
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Marvin Williams
Dwight Howard
...for extended periods of time? Kemba is awesome...but the rest are overrated, overpaid and at least 3 of those guys are one-dimensional guys for various reasons. MKG is straight up garbage on O and I'm also not so sure he is that great of a defender. Marvin Williams is making the money is making because is tall and can hit a 3 pointer... that's it. Nic Batum can do a lot of things...but he is no one's 2nd best player...more like a 4th option on a very good team. And Dwight? LOL. Try making a free throw before extending out to the 3 point line.

However...Frank Kaminsky manages to kill the Raptors with his 3 point shooting and Malik Monk might be a nice score off the bench...but dear God...that starting 5!

They did add a 7 WS guy in Howard to the squad. Adding him alone will get them to at least a .500 record.

[Tacoma]

Everything in the analytical world begins with past performance, and Patterson certainly was an analytical darling, if not a fan favourite the past season. As for losing Tucker, we were one of the best teams in the East without him, and the growth of young players like Wright and Powell could offset that. My concern is whether Wright can do an adequate job of replacing Joseph this coming season. Longer term, I think he most certainly will, but will there be an adjustment for him? Probably.

When you take in time lost to injury for Patterson and Carroll in particular, it's clear that a healthy Wright and Powell can compensate for their loss, as can any growth from Siakim and Poeltl. We might be different, but not necessarily worse than last season

The optimists on this board cite "full year of Ibaka" as a reason to be better next season. So it's interesting to see this Tucker remark because if we were one of the best teams in the East without him, that "him" also applies to Ibaka since they came here at about same time.

Overall, I think we can finish anywhere between 3-6 seed, so this ESPN prediction is on low end but not out of line. We started off with a franchise record 22-8 last season (without Ibaka and Powell) that I don't think will be repeated this season. If Lowry continues his decline and/or out due to injuries again next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to say we could end up 6th.

[rapcity10]

the phony rapscity probably helped make that list

No I don't work for espn friend. You and bust a nut opened my eyes tho, I see the light with this team. We have 2 superstars, high tier prospects on our bench, a top 10 coach, best gm, one of the best two way power forwards in the game, and one of the best long range sniper in the game in CJ. We are winning a championship with this core in the next three years. I can't wait till we meet the cavs for the third straight year in the ECF and all of America has to suffer and watch that series again .

[rapcity10]

Everything in the analytical world begins with past performance, and Patterson certainly was an analytical darling, if not a fan favourite the past season. As for losing Tucker, we were one of the best teams in the East without him, and the growth of young players like Wright and Powell could offset that. My concern is whether Wright can do an adequate job of replacing Joseph this coming season. Longer term, I think he most certainly will, but will there be an adjustment for him? Probably.

When you take in time lost to injury for Patterson and Carroll in particular, it's clear that a healthy Wright and Powell can compensate for their loss, as can any growth from Siakim and Poeltl. We might be different, but not necessarily worse than last season

The optimists on this board cite "full year of Ibaka" as a reason to be better next season. So it's interesting to see this Tucker remark because if we were one of the best teams in the East without him, that "him" also applies to Ibaka since they came here at about same time.

Overall, I think we can finish anywhere between 3-6 seed, so this ESPN prediction is on low end but not out of line. We started off with a franchise record 22-8 last season (without Ibaka and Powell) that I don't think will be repeated this season. If Lowry continues his decline and/or out due to injuries again next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to say we could end up 6th.

No, stop hating. Look at my last post, cavs are in disarray, celtics are overrated, we beat the Bucks last year in six games, we always beat the Wizards in the regular season, and the lolcats aren't worth mentioning. Our time is coming.

[Johnny Bball]

For anyone interested, I did a similar thing, but instead of using just RPM, I used all of WS, BPM and RPM.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2017/8/1/16026606/toronto-raptors-win-total-predictions-projections

Not a bad article, thanks for sharing.

There's no way the Raptors aren't top 3 in the east (barring injury).

I hate advanced stats for the most part, they only tell you what you want to see.

That's actually the eye test. advanced stats while not perfect tries to tell you the things u missed while watching.

Nah man. Nowadays, people use advance stats far too often completely out of context or without determining/considering underlying factors that heavily influence various factors, and its just as bad as the eye test most times.

[Rapcity_11]

??? - statistical models can always be tweaked. Variations should be included or modified if they are always wrong which is the point, i don't think they mind being wrong about the Raptors.

You actually think the model was intentionally tweaked to underrate the Raptors? Take off the tinfoil hat..

Why wouldn’t they tweak it to undervalue the Lakers, Knicks, etc. Why the Raptors? Makes zero sense.

You are reading what you want to read. I am saying there is something wrong with the model if it is continually wrong. Plus they are not motivated to change it even though the variance's are off because it drives traffic. One of the teams it drives traffic for is the Raptors. I also back that with other "mistakes" that are continuously posted on this forum where ESPN is seen as slighting the Raptors.

I'll give you an example, I had a discussion with a friend about the 2016 playoff series against the Cavs and he said the refs gave a game to the Cavs. I said no way, the foul calls were pretty even and in the second half the calls were in favour of the Raptors. Then he pointed out the BB foul and a series of plays around that call that set the tone for the game and created seperation that the Raptors couldn't make up. Basically he's saying it's not obvious what they did but when you look at everything in it's entirety and the timing of the calls it raised questions. I'm saying their model needs tweaking and the fact year after year Raptors totals are low is not enough of an incentive for them to change. At the end of the day it goes towards their narrative that a pissed of Raptors fanbase drives traffic. Are they doing it just to drive up viewership? Of course not but - like that game - it doesn't hurt in getting the result they want. I will also say pissing off the Lakers, Knicks fanbase also drives traffic.

Well yeah, models aren’t perfect. Has it been continually wrong though? 49 wins last year is pretty damn close to 51. Without the trades, it’s probably bang on. You also can’t change a model based on one team. On the whole, it does quite well.

ESPN is seen as slighting the Raptors because we’re all a bunch of homers were a highly biased viewpoint. They don’t actually slight the Raptors when it comes to their statistical analysis.

And LOL, that’s a perfect tinfoil hat example.

[Rapcity_11]

Overall, I think we can finish anywhere between 3-6 seed, so this ESPN prediction is on low end but not out of line. We started off with a franchise record 22-8 last season (without Ibaka and Powell) that I don't think will be repeated this season. If Lowry continues his decline and/or out due to injuries again next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to say we could end up 6th.

Lowry had the best season of his career last year. What “decline” is he continuing?

[Yeezus_]

Lowry was near superstar level during the regular season last year.

[kj_]

No team in the East cracking 50 wins... not likely.


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[Basketball_Jones]

If Lowry continues his decline and/or out due to injuries again next season, I don't think it's unrealistic to say we could end up 6th.

LOL decline, 62%TS Steph Curry-like shooting I hope he continues declining like that! He's an elite shooter/scorer and continues to improve, probably until his mid 30's.

[phanman]

The raps should be no lower than 4th. Charlotte....really?

They got a pretty balanced, multi-dimensional roster:

Kemba/Batum/MKG/Marvin/Dwight

But they're lacking depth (just MCW, Monk, Kaminsky with big holes at some positions) and the lights-out shooting that Dwight is usually surrounded with.

Raps > Hornets

They should be solid defensively, but their shooting will be below average.

I think they'll be fine with the outside shooting. Kemba shot 40% last season, Marvin 35% (down from 40% last season) and Batum had an bad year shooting but is a career 36% shooter. Monk was also a lights out shooter in college. I think Charlotte will be much improved since they got back the missing piece in the middle since Biz's departure. Dwight has the familiarity with Cliff, so he should fit in seamlessly if he buys in.

People like to sh*t on Dwight but he was still effective in 30mpg last season: 13pts/13reb/1.5blk shooting 63% with a 115 ORTG 100DRTG 2.3 BPM and 2.4 VORP 8.3WS.

That said article is whack, no way we regress to the 6th seed I see us repeating as the 3rd seed

[jonny three time]

It's going to be interesting seeing how various writers rank the Raps, Wiz, Bucks and Cats. That's the most likely 3-6 grouping in the East, but an argument could be made for or against any of the teams.

If Howard is healthy he gives the Bobcats a look inside that they've never had. They're also returning the vast majority of their rotation too, so chemsitry is there to build on.

Giannis development alone could be enough to push the Bucks to the 3 seed, as well as a bunch of other young players, who already have rotation experience and have room to grow as well.

Washington is tough to believe in as each year goes on. Last year their starters were really healthy and they still weren't at our level. The chances of them making a leap up to 3rd are slim IMO, even though Beal and Porter are still young enough to improve. If they're the 3rd seed, then this group of teams all underachieved as a whole.

As for us, an outsider looking at our team isn't going to be wowed at our young players. They're also going to look at Lowry and Miles age, Ibaka physically regressing and "possible age issue", as well as all the role player vets we lost, and it all adds up to a series of lateral moves at best. Personally, I think our young guys can bring enough defense, energy and length to the rotation, to help make up for the missed assignments, dumb turnovers and lack of respect from the refs that all young players get. They probably won't elevate us to another level though.

[hsb]

FOH!

[Tokey41]

The Hornets were 36-46 last year, good for 11th in the east. Can someone tell me what they did to improve to the point of getting a playoff spot? I'm a huge fan of Kemba and Batum, but Howard is a cancer and their young guys don't seem to be game changers (though Monk is promising he won't make a huge difference in his rookie year). I'd put them 7th at best this year, and that's only because the east is garbage. I'm also surprised with the Pistons here... who do they even have at this point outside of Drummond and Reggie Jackson? They should be thrown in with the rest of the 30-33 win teams.

I do think the Wizards and Bucks will give us a run for the 3rd seed, but I don't know if they've shown their better yet. Bucks need time to gel once everyone is healthy; and while Wall terrifies me I don't think Beal or Porter are all that great.

[Syd-TK3]

I'd bet my account we don't finish any lower than 4th

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[ontnut]

Charlotte always gets mad love, then somehow find a way to F it up during the actual season. I can understand Bucks and Wizards ahead of Toronto based on some stats/projections, but Charlotte, basically because they added Dwight? What teams have gotten better for having added Dwight in the last 5 years lol...

They had an expected W/L of 42-40 last year. Improving on that (or getting lucky in terms of W/L) isn’t exactly a stretch.

Maybe you're right. They're due for a great season since they had a bad one last year and always alternate good and bad seasons. Maybe they win 50.....

[C_Money]

What a weak conference. If we finish 6th in this conference than they should try to start changing the core the following year

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The core is fine. It's the rest of the team that sucks.