The Future of Canadian Basketball: Classes of 2017-2018

[Hair Canada]

There are many talks about the current Canadian generation, those already in the NBA, as our “golden generation”. I’m not disputing that we have some very good players already in the league, but I still think we’re missing at least one superstar. Someone who can do more than just score (Wiggins), but can also lead and cerate for himself and for others. Murray might be that guy in a couple of years, but so far he hasn’t shown enough consistency and he’s also not a real playmaker; more of a scorer. Not that it’s bad to have high-level scorers, but I think these can only take you so far (don’t get me wrong, I like Jamal and think he has a good future in the NBA).

I think that due to our deficiencies in commitment and team-play, we probably need to be clearly superior to the non-US competition to contend for a medal. And for that we need a superstar who is also a leader.

As you might have guessed, I’m really hoping that RJ Barrett will be this guy. In 2020 he will only be 20. Might be good enough to already be on the national team, but probably not good or experienced enough to lead it. In the 2023 World Championship and 2024 Olympics, he should already be close to being fully developed. If he meets his potential, I look for him to be the leader of that team and provide what Wigging cannot.

But it’s not only RJ.

First, most of the current generation should still be at the height of their careers. I’m talking Wiggins, Murray, Brooks, Lyles, Ennis, and Stauskas, all still under 30 in the summer of 2023. The four who may already be a bit over the hill at this point are Thompson, Joseph, Olynyk, and Powell, but not necessarily. This is not trivial. None of them is a star, but they seem committed to the national team (at least the first three) and in positions where we lack depth – the PG and the bigs. All are going to be around 32 and may be able to compensate in experience for what they will lose in speed and athleticism (for Olynyk, athleticism is not a big part of his game anyway).

Beyond these, we might potentially see a few of the young bucks make a break. I’m putting my money on one or more of the following from the classes of 2017-2018, who should all be around the age of 25 in 2023-24 and ready for major minutes if they are good enough.

Simi Shittu (class of ‘18). A really nice potential. A 6’10 PF, strong, very mobile and active, good rebounder, with nice court vision. Also a solid ball handler for the position. The main problem I saw with him was a so-so touch around the basket and mediocre shooting from range. Also has a tendency sometimes to insist on his shot even on an off day (big part of the reason the very talented Canadian U17 lost in the quarter finals to Turkey a year and a half ago). Still, he’s clearly NBA material. Best case scenario, he might be a poor-man’s version of Amare Stoudemire (unlikely). He’s floor, though, looks something like a Tristan Thompson, although probably with better offense. Not too bad if that ends up being the case. Will play in Vanderbilt next year and hopefully he’s also a one-and-done.

Lugentz Dort (class of ‘18; 6’5 combo guard). I really like him, even more after seeing him this year back home at Athlete Institute. A real tank. Very strong (looks like a linebacker) and already has the body of an NBA player. Reminds me of the Celtics’ Marcus Smart. Good athleticism, finishes well with contact, and has a developing outside shot that already looks pretty good and drops with good percentage (although release is not too quick and not much elevation). Great defensive potential. Plays with passion. Still learning how to create for others, although improved this aspect of his game quite a bit over the last year. Next year he’s in Arizona State. Could be very good, but still needs to improve his ball handling and creativeness in finishing around the basket.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker (class of ‘17; 6’5 shooting guard; 6’9 wingspan). Started the season well at Virginia Tech. Great shooter and a good team player. Fits the NBA as a catch-and-shoot, who can also create some for others and for himself. Truly ambidextrous and quite shifty. But only an average athlete at the NBA level. Not explosive or very quick. Also, his frame is a bit on the lighter side. Still, I like him. A good defender, with quick hands and a knack for steals. Also a gamer who doesn’t need the ball in his hands all the time to be effective. I think he will be a nice rotation player in the right team and a potential good player for the national team. Can be very good I think in international competition. He was our best player in the Americas U18s, as part of a team that gave the US with Fultz and Porter a good run for their money in the gold medal game.

Shai Gilgious-Alexander (class of ‘17; 6’6 point guard; 7’0 wingspan). Nickeil’s cousin. Really long for the position, but a so-so athlete. Not very fast. Outside shot a work in progress. Percentage is not bad, but he has a low and pretty slow release (although already much better than how it looked like last year in high school). Still, I like his defense. Although he’s not incredibly quick, his length generates a lot of havoc and steals (leads Kentucky in steals this year). I also like his assertiveness, pace, and vision. He’s a bit of a late bloomer, so I think still has the potential to become much better. Already not bad at all, but will need to improve more to be influential at the next level. Another year or two in college might be beneficial In any case, a good national team potential.

Emmanuel Akot (class of ‘17; 6’8 SF). First time I saw him play big minutes was at the U17 world championship in summer 2016. One of the players I liked the most from that championship. Saw him play some more since, and I still like him. A really good defensive player, with size and energy to compete well at the highest level. Offensively, he’s still a work in progress, but the potential is certainly there. Shoots the three pretty well and can also penetrate and create for himself or others when he has the confidence (actually a good passer). Decided to re-class and join Arizona this year. Perhaps not the best decision. Another dominant year in high school might have helped his confidence and working on his ball handling, which is still not strong enough. Right now, he’s not giving Arizona much and plays limited minutes, but I do have faith in him for the long run. Clear NBA potential.

Ignas Brezdaikis (class of ‘18; 6’8 SF). Iggy is a natural scorer. Has both the knack for getting buckets and the confidence to keep trying after a few misses. At the high school level he’s unstoppable and can finish games with 50 points. Can score from any point, including a nice shooting stroke from 3 and great penetration. Should be a very good scorer in college as well (going to Michigan), if not right away then by his second year. I think he’ll also eventually find his way to the big league and there it might be a matter of situation for him. He’s a decent athlete and tries on defense, but not very quick laterally and doesn’t have great length, so it might be hard for him to stay in front of athletic small forwards. Then again, they said the same about Brooks, and he’s doing just fine defensively at Memphis. Often times, much of it is a matter of will and defensive intelligence. Plus, he might be able to play the stretch four against small ball lineups.


Beyond this group, there are also a few others from the classes of 2017-2018 who might make it to the NBA and could be on the national team by 2023-24 if they manage to break through:

Justin Jackson. Class of ‘16; 6’7 SF, but really long (7’3 wingspan), so he can and maybe should play the four. Had a really nice college freshman season at Maryland last year. Especially impressed with his outside shot (around 45% from beyond the arc). But this year he’s not doing so well. Went back instead of making progress. And the shooting doesn’t look that good anymore. Perhaps can bounce back. But I’m not sure he can be the 3 and D that we thought he might be. The shot is not consistent enough and the defense is also not brilliant, partly because he is not that quick. Below average ball handler and passer. Probably more suitable as a stretch four. A bit disappointing given how he looked when he was 15-16. It looked then like he was going to be the next big thing out of Canada. Didn’t’ really gel.

Andrew Nembhard (class of ‘18; 6’4 PG). Ranked quite high by many. Some go as far as saying that he’s the best PG in the class of 2018. I’m not sure I completely see it. Yes, he is a true PG. Great passer, excellent vision, and unselfish, with a nice outside shot and very solid defense. All that might be enough to eventually bring him to the big league. But he’s just not fast, athletic or long enough in NBA standards, so I think he’ll have difficulties creating at the top level. Will likely still get to the league, because of his great personality and very cerebral game, but I doubt if he’ll be better than Tyler Ennis. Still a good prospect for the national team. We need some decent PGs for the post-Co-Jo era.

Abu Kigab (class of ‘17; 6’7 wing). Not considered an elite-level talent. Has something a bit raw and wild about his game. Doesn’t always seem to be in control when he plays, although that’s improved over the years. Still, I like him. One of these players I’d take with me to any of my teams. A fighter, excellent rebounder and defender. Strong, very gritty, and committed. I’m not sure he’ll be able to make it to the NBA because he doesn’t look that polished, but I’d like to eventually see him on the national team at some point. Can even play some four in small ball. Doesn’t really get minutes at Oregon this year as a freshman, which is too bad. Perhaps later on in the season or next year.

Oshae Brissett (class of ‘17; 6’8 PF) I quite like him. Not considered an NBA potential by most, but I think he could become a contributor from the bench if given a chance. Not that tall, but good size and athleticism for the stretch four. Decent ball handling skills. Can drive to the basket, but not very creative around it. Very good rebounder and defender. Main problem right now is his shot, which is quite inconsistent. At Syracuse he scores and not afraid to take shots, but on volume shooting. He does have three-point range and has been working on his consistency from range, not very successfully so far.

Jaelin Llewellyn (class of 2018; 6'2 PG). That's a guy that is not talked about much in this class, certainly not as much as guys like Barrett, Simi, Nembhard, Dort, and Brezdaikis. But I really liked what I saw from him lately, and he's been having a fantastic senior high school season (something like 35 points a game, with nearly 10 assists per game over his last 5). Very similar physical profile to Lindell Wigginton. 6'2 guard, with excellent scoring abilities and NBA-level athleticism. But from what I can see, Llewellyn is really more of a playmaker and a better decision maker. That's important, because considering his height, it should be his natural NBA position. I think he'll be really good next year in Princeton and has a real chance to be another NBA player from this class.

Other classes:

2019:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1644140
2020:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1644482&p=60956369#p60956369
2021:
viewtopic.php?t=1644845
2022:
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1645274
2023 + :
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1645754

[RaptorsLife]

We talk about future all we want but if these kids qualify for Olympics or world cup its pointless

[mojo13]

Very good overview of these guys for the uninitiated. I can disagree on the specific potential of some of these guys but maybe that is for a different post.

My main initial thought is we tend to overvalue guys at this stage of their career. This is no doubt the strongest and deepest class or two in many years as we have had a bit of a lull recently. Maybe I am more of a cynic but I am not as high as a whole on the NBA potential of this group. There are no sure fire NBA players from the group listed above beyond RJ Barrett. Too much growth and development happens at this age for us to really have a good grasp on who will become what.
Not too long ago we had guys like Khem Birch, Kyle Wiltjer, TT, Myck Kabongo, Cory Joseph and Anthony Bennett who were all top 25 ranked, 5 star prospects and/or McD All Americans (probably a better rated group of prospects than this group) The same forum post could have been written about these guys coming out of high school in the 2010-2012 period and how good they will in 4-5 years time in the NBA. But how did that turn out? All we got out of that was a couple NBA roll players.

The NBA is a whole different level and the vast majority of top prospects never even make it to the NBA or if they do they are inconsequential.

Fun to speculate on these kids, but I don't buy into the hype. A few of these kids will turn into NBA players. Hopefully more. Hopefully we get starter level players or even an all star calibre player in RJ. But I wouldn't put money on it. Fingers crossed that I am wrong though.

[Hair Canada]

Very good overview of these guys for the uninitiated. I can disagree on the specific potential of some of these guys but maybe that is for a different post.

My main initial thought is we tend to overvalue guys at this stage of their career. This is no doubt the strongest and deepest class or two in many years as we have had a bit of a lull recently. Maybe I am more of a cynic but I am not as high as a whole on the NBA potential of this group. There are no sure fire NBA players from the group listed above beyond RJ Barrett. Too much growth and development happens at this age for us to really have a good grasp on who will become what.
Not too long ago we had guys like Khem Birch, Kyle Wiltjer, TT, Myck Kabongo, Cory Joseph and Anthony Bennett who were all top 25 ranked, 5 star prospects and/or McD All Americans (probably a better rated group of prospects than this group) The same forum post could have been written about these guys coming out of high school in the 2010-2012 period and how good they will in 4-5 years time in the NBA. But how did that turn out? All we got out of that was a couple NBA roll players.

The NBA is a whole different level and the vast majority of top prospects never even make it to the NBA or if they do they are inconsequential.

Fun to speculate on these kids, but I don't buy into the hype. A few of these kids will turn into NBA players. Hopefully more. Hopefully we get starter level players or even an all star calibre player in RJ. But I wouldn't put money on it. Fingers crossed that I am wrong though.

Thanks Mojo, I agree with what you write here. Just considering the stats regarding success rates, we know that the majority of these guys will either not make it to the NBA or, if they do, will end up as roll players at best (not that there's anythig wrong with that). That's why I wrote that it would be one or more of these, and not all/most.

But I think the important point here is really the depth. If we have a class with 5-10 players who have enough potential, then hopefully at least two or three of them might be able to realize it. Note that there are a few others from these classes (e.g. Wiggniton, Llewellyn, and Kirkwood), who could also make it to the league eventually, but I didn't mention them here because I think the chances are lower.

My point is that if we have enough depth, say two to three a year that make it to the NBA, then we also have a better chance of producing another player or two who become starters or even stars.

Beyond that, my eye is not only on the NBA, but also on the national team. There again, we need depth, as the current world championship qualifiers clearly demonstrate. That is, even players who will likely not make it to the league (e.g. Abu Kigab) might turn out to be valuable team Canada players down the road. Many European countries rely on good Euroleague players to carry their teams and if we had more of these, that would be great progress for me.

[JediQ]

i like it, and also taking a realistic approach that some of these guys might not pan out or might not become as good as what they are projected to be. But what I'm going away with is, the grassroots level is getting better and better, and sooner than later, we won't just be entering a "golden generation", but become a steady factory of amazing athletes and be a factor on the international scene.

I remember being upbeat every time there's a Canadian content on the draft regardless of how likely they are of being drafted (Hello Carl English) but pulling for them nonetheless.

[Big Mac Biyombo]

We talk about future all we want but if these kids qualify for Olympics or world cup its pointless

What do you mean? How is them qualifying pointless?

[TooBad]

We talk about future all we want but if these kids qualify for Olympics or world cup its pointless

What do you mean? How is them qualifying pointless?

I think he means if they don't qualify.

[Hair Canada]

i like it, and also taking a realistic approach that some of these guys might not pan out or might not become as good as what they are projected to be. But what I'm going away with is, the grassroots level is getting better and better, and sooner than later, we won't just be entering a "golden generation", but become a steady factory of amazing athletes and be a factor on the international scene.

I remember being upbeat every time there's a Canadian content on the draft regardless of how likely they are of being drafted (Hello Carl English) but pulling for them nonetheless.

Yes, exactly my point. I'll be writing more about even younger players to try and demonstrate that this is the case.

[mojo13]

i like it, and also taking a realistic approach that some of these guys might not pan out or might not become as good as what they are projected to be. But what I'm going away with is, the grassroots level is getting better and better, and sooner than later, we won't just be entering a "golden generation", but become a steady factory of amazing athletes and be a factor on the international scene.

I remember being upbeat every time there's a Canadian content on the draft regardless of how likely they are of being drafted (Hello Carl English) but pulling for them nonetheless.

Yes, exactly my point. I'll be writing more about even younger players to try and demonstrate that this is the case.

But do we not already have a steady stream of prospects coming through since the 2009/10 period? Or are some people saying this 2017 and 2018 class is an aberration? Every year since 2010 we seem to be getting 1 or 2 legit NBA prospects and numerous other high level pro prospects. There have been some years without much depth - 2015 for example didn't seem to have much after Jamal Murray, so it can seem it comes in waves sometimes with 2017/18 being another high wave especially for depth.

We know more are coming behind this class and I look forward to your take on the top prospects (Addison Patterson, Cashius McNeilly might be a couple you profile). But you'll really be earning your Nostradamus credentials if you can figure the NBA prospects for 15 and 16 years olds.

[Hair Canada]

But do we not already have a steady stream of prospects coming through since the 2009/10 period? Or are some people saying this 2017 and 2018 class is an aberration? Every year since 2010 we seem to be getting 1 or 2 legit NBA prospects and numerous other high level pro prospects. There have been some years without much depth - 2015 for example didn't seem to have much after Jamal Murray, so it can seem it comes in waves sometimes with 2017/18 being another high wave especially for depth.

We know more are coming behind this class and I look forward to your take on the top prospects (Addison Patterson, Cashius McNeilly might be a couple you profile). But you'll really be earning your Nostradamus credentials if you can figure the NBA prospects for 15 and 16 years olds.

Yes, I think you are right that the stream of prospects is not new. It's just that some might think it was just a fluke and we might go back to the days of 2-3 NBA players. My sense is that this is not the case. I'll write a couple of posts in the next few days about younger prospects to make the case for this and play a bit of Nostradamus, although again the point is really to show depth and potential rather than predict for a particular individual.

[JediQ]

i like it, and also taking a realistic approach that some of these guys might not pan out or might not become as good as what they are projected to be. But what I'm going away with is, the grassroots level is getting better and better, and sooner than later, we won't just be entering a "golden generation", but become a steady factory of amazing athletes and be a factor on the international scene.

I remember being upbeat every time there's a Canadian content on the draft regardless of how likely they are of being drafted (Hello Carl English) but pulling for them nonetheless.

Yes, exactly my point. I'll be writing more about even younger players to try and demonstrate that this is the case.

Thanks, looking forward to this. I haven't been this optimistic and excited by canadian bball in the international scene since the end of Triano's core of Nash-Barrett-McCullough-(ok let's add Sherm lol). While I salute all of the athletes that played with them, the talent and the talent pool was just not there (or not cultivated) to be able to compete consistently at a high level. I also agree with mojo2013 that since 2010 we've been getting a steady stream of NBA prospects, but it seems that the canadian content (and the quality of) being scouted as youngsters to play in the NCAA is on the rise.

[Hair Canada]

Thanks, looking forward to this. I haven't been this optimistic and excited by canadian bball in the international scene since the end of Triano's core of Nash-Barrett-McCullough-(ok let's add Sherm lol). While I salute all of the athletes that played with them, the talent and the talent pool was just not there (or not cultivated) to be able to compete consistently at a high level. I also agree with mojo2013 that since 2010 we've been getting a steady stream of NBA prospects, but it seems that the canadian content (and the quality of) being scouted as youngsters to play in the NCAA is on the rise.

Agreed. We need to remember that this is just potential and much can still go wrong, but hey, part of the fun with all of this is building expectations and following up on how they materialize.

[Patman]

Where's Christian David? Going to Butler next year.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Where's Christian David? Going to Butler next year.

He's at Butler right now, but is barely getting any playing time. He's got time to improve, but I think it's safe to say he's not a high level prospect.

[Patman]

Where's Christian David? Going to Butler next year.

He's at Butler right now, but is barely getting any playing time. He's got time to improve, but I think it's safe to say he's not a high level prospect.

That's probably why I didn't notice he was already there lol. But I always figured he was gonna be a 4 year collegiate anyway. He'll be a key starter by his senior year.

He won't make it to the NBA, but I think he'll be an international pro, and a part of Canada Basketball in the future.

[super_balls]

Where's Christian David? Going to Butler next year.

He's at Butler right now, but is barely getting any playing time. He's got time to improve, but I think it's safe to say he's not a high level prospect.

That's probably why I didn't notice he was already there lol. But I always figured he was gonna be a 4 year collegiate anyway. He'll be a key starter by his senior year.

He won't make it to the NBA, but I think he'll be an international pro, and a part of Canada Basketball in the future.

Dang, I was hoping he'd be the first full Filipino in the NBA. Kobe Paras is a disappointment too.

Sucks.. Filipinos are athletic as hell until they are above 6'2 then they just aren't as coordinated and don't have fast twitch muscles.

[Hair Canada]

Still a long way to go, but nbadraft is now projecting 5 Canadians (RJ, Nickeil, Shai, Simi, and Lindell) in the first round of the 2019 draft and 2 more (Justin Jackson, who's really taking a hit after his slow start this season, and O'Shae) in the second round. I believe this marks the first appearance for Wigginton and Brissett in this mock draft. RJ is still first and Nickeil, Shai, and Simi are all in the top 15.

If this comes true (or even most of it), it would undoubtedly be the strongest Canadian performance in the draft ever. Possible additions to the list would be Lugentz Dort, Emanuel Akot, and Ignas Brezdaikis, but they'll have to give phenomenal freshman NCAA seasons (Dort and Brezdaikis) or show great improvement (Akot) next year to join the mix.

http://www.nbadraft.net/2019mock_draft