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Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 9:02 am
by Kabookalu
Reading the methodology behind how they compiled this stat, it's not without fault, but defensive stats in general will always be flawed. Like RPM I think this is a stat that becomes clearer and more concise when the season is over, but regardless:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2018/01/01/draymond-has-been-the-nbas-best-defender/

Total Defensive Rating:

1. Draymond Green
2. Anthony Davis
3. Kristaps Porzingis
4. Pascal Siakam
5. DeMarcus Cousins
6. Rudy Gay
7. Robert Covington
8. Andre Roberson
9. Kent Bazemore
10. Giannis Antetokounmpo

The stat is divided between Perimeter Defensive Rating (PDR) and Interior Defensive Rating (IDR), where Siakam ranks 24th in PDR and 14th in IDR for an overall TDR of 4th. His defense has been Draymond Green esque in that regard who ranks 21st in PDR and 11th in IDR for a TDR of 1st overall. Shows off how versatile he is.

Other Raptors:

Perimeter Defensive Rating:

Serge Ibaka -3.4
Kyle Lowry -0.3
OG Anunoby 1.2
DeMar DeRozan -0.3

Interior Defensive Rating:

Serge Ibaka 3.2
Kyle Lowry 0
OG Anunoby -1.5
DeMar DeRozan -3

Unfortunately no other data for any other Raptors is out there. For what it's worth Kyle Lowry last year in PDR was at 3.15.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 9:07 am
by RaptorsLife
that's fantastic. I made a thread in general board about how underrated Pascal siakam is on defense. people called me overhyping our players

numbers prove it now. He is a defense demon. should be getting ton of mins against cavs

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 11:13 am
by RaptorHusky
RaptorsLife wrote:that's fantastic. I made a thread in general board about how underrated Pascal siakam is on defense. people called me overhyping our players

numbers prove it now. He is a defense demon. should be getting ton of mins against cavs


Split LeBron's minutes between OG and Pascal and we'll have 12 fouls to give without big difference who is guarding him :wink:

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 12:10 pm
by TRex520
RaptorHusky wrote:
RaptorsLife wrote:that's fantastic. I made a thread in general board about how underrated Pascal siakam is on defense. people called me overhyping our players

numbers prove it now. He is a defense demon. should be getting ton of mins against cavs


Split LeBron's minutes between OG and Pascal and we'll have 12 fouls to give without big difference who is guarding him :wink:

Maybe OG @ 3 and Siakam @ 4, switch every time to take away the driving lane off LeBron :roll:

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 3:25 pm
by Sherlock
Kabookalu wrote:Reading the methodology behind how they compiled this stat, it's not without fault, but defensive stats in general will always be flawed. Like RPM I think this is a stat that becomes clearer and more concise when the season is over, but regardless:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2018/01/01/draymond-has-been-the-nbas-best-defender/

Total Defensive Rating:

1. Draymond Green
2. Anthony Davis
3. Kristaps Porzingis
4. Pascal Siakam
5. DeMarcus Cousins
6. Rudy Gay
7. Robert Covington
8. Andre Roberson
9. Kent Bazemore
10. Giannis Antetokounmpo

The stat is divided between Perimeter Defensive Rating (PDR) and Interior Defensive Rating (IDR), where Siakam ranks 24th in PDR and 14th in IDR for an overall TDR of 4th. His defense has been Draymond Green esque in that regard who ranks 21st in PDR and 11th in IDR for a TDR of 1st overall. Shows off how versatile he is.

Other Raptors:

Perimeter Defensive Rating:

Serge Ibaka -3.4
Kyle Lowry -0.3
OG Anunoby 1.2
DeMar DeRozan -0.3

Interior Defensive Rating:

Serge Ibaka 3.2
Kyle Lowry 0
OG Anunoby -1.5
DeMar DeRozan -3

Unfortunately no other data for any other Raptors is out there. For what it's worth Kyle Lowry last year in PDR was at 3.15.


Seeing KP and DMC's names up there in the top 5 makes me think this stat somehow overvalues bigs and makes me question the stat. That's not at all what I would expect to see based on the eye-test.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 3:42 pm
by Basketball_Jones
RaptorsLife wrote:that's fantastic. I made a thread in general board about how underrated Pascal siakam is on defense. people called me overhyping our players

numbers prove it now. He is a defense demon. should be getting ton of mins against cavs


I feel if we play OG and Siakam 40 mpg we would be the best defensive team in NBA history. Stats prove it.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 4:40 pm
by VanWest82
The fact that Cousins is 5th overall in this stat should tell you everything you need to know about it. Might as well put JV in the top 10 too.

Siakam has been great though.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:16 pm
by Tofubeque
Sometimes I'm like "it would be great if we went small off the bench to get Norm more minutes instead of Siakam" but then I'm like "wait, I like Siakam..."

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:17 pm
by ruckus
If only he could hit an open jump shot...

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:20 pm
by thunderforce
ruckus wrote:If only he could hit an open jump shot...

He could before and I am sure it will come back . Just a huge slump , he will figure it out eventually .

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:21 pm
by ruckus
thunderforce wrote:
ruckus wrote:If only he could hit an open jump shot...

He could before and I am sure it will come back . Just a huge slump , he will figure it out eventually .


As long as he figures it out by the playoffs, I'll be happy.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:26 pm
by Psubs
ruckus wrote:If only he could hit an open jump shot...


He can hit an open 2 pt jumpshot. I'd rather him focus on FTs than 3s.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 5:42 pm
by lilswift01
Pascal defense is pretty crazy for a second year player. Hopefully he continues to improve and gets a perimeter shaaat.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 6:35 pm
by Harold_and_Kumar
Let's hope we are in the process of creating the new defensive framework that competes against the New World Order of 3's and ball movement.

Delon, Siakam, Poeltl and OG can all already guard multiple positions, create havoc in passing lanes, switch in the P&R and guard their own man in isolation. These guys are WAY better than I ever gave them credit for as prospects - special shout outs to Poeltl, Delon, and yes, even Casey.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 7:35 pm
by I_Like_Dirt
Sherlock wrote:Seeing KP and DMC's names up there in the top 5 makes me think this stat somehow overvalues bigs and makes me question the stat. That's not at all what I would expect to see based on the eye-test.


Looking at it a bit, I'm not sure it overvalues bigs specifically so much as it values players that are inclined to gamble for blocks and steals. Bigs do tend to block more shots by virtue of being the guy in position who, when things go wrong, is tasked with either blocking the shot or giving up the basket. Bigs that also tend to get a higher rate of steals are likely going to float to the top regardless of how they get those steals or not. It's an interesting tool, and sort of passes the eye test at the top, give or take, but it really doesn't pass the eye test at the bottom, where the list is littered with solid fundamental defenders who don't gamble for blocks or steals and aren't tasked with trying for them. Likewise, the outliers at the top of the list tend to be guys who get a lot of blocks and steals even if they wind up giving up more than they gain by gambling and end up benched for defensive reasons because of it at times - Dwight Powell (a debatable defender with extreme limitations in the matchups he can face) and Wes Matthews (an excellent fundamental defender) are probably the best contrast you can get of two teammates who's places on the list make no sense unless you consider blocks and steals as the defining categories. Blocks and steals clearly have to be weighted rather highly in that particular metric.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 7:35 pm
by dalton749
We need to play with an OG, siakam, ibaka front court more often because you know it's going to happen come playoff time against the cavs. If jv starts against love at any point I will be pissed.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 8:07 pm
by Kabookalu
Sherlock wrote:
Kabookalu wrote:Reading the methodology behind how they compiled this stat, it's not without fault, but defensive stats in general will always be flawed. Like RPM I think this is a stat that becomes clearer and more concise when the season is over, but regardless:

http://www.basketballanalyticsbook.com/2018/01/01/draymond-has-been-the-nbas-best-defender/

Total Defensive Rating:

1. Draymond Green
2. Anthony Davis
3. Kristaps Porzingis
4. Pascal Siakam
5. DeMarcus Cousins
6. Rudy Gay
7. Robert Covington
8. Andre Roberson
9. Kent Bazemore
10. Giannis Antetokounmpo

The stat is divided between Perimeter Defensive Rating (PDR) and Interior Defensive Rating (IDR), where Siakam ranks 24th in PDR and 14th in IDR for an overall TDR of 4th. His defense has been Draymond Green esque in that regard who ranks 21st in PDR and 11th in IDR for a TDR of 1st overall. Shows off how versatile he is.

Other Raptors:

Perimeter Defensive Rating:

Serge Ibaka -3.4
Kyle Lowry -0.3
OG Anunoby 1.2
DeMar DeRozan -0.3

Interior Defensive Rating:

Serge Ibaka 3.2
Kyle Lowry 0
OG Anunoby -1.5
DeMar DeRozan -3

Unfortunately no other data for any other Raptors is out there. For what it's worth Kyle Lowry last year in PDR was at 3.15.


Seeing KP and DMC's names up there in the top 5 makes me think this stat somehow overvalues bigs and makes me question the stat. That's not at all what I would expect to see based on the eye-test.


Perimeter defensive rating and Interior defensive rating should be judged in isolation, though no one would read this topic if I said Siakam is the 24th best perimeter defender in the league.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 8:22 pm
by Kabookalu
VanWest82 wrote:The fact that Cousins is 5th overall in this stat should tell you everything you need to know about it. Might as well put JV in the top 10 too.

Siakam has been great though.


It's not perfect but it shouldn't be dismissed as a nothing stat. It uses nba.com's tracking system to try and evaluate player's individual defenses, such as hustle stats, closest defender, etc. I know right off the bat the flaw in this, because if OG is playing elite defense on LeBron James who dribbles out the shotclock not being able to beat him to the rim, and he passes it at the last second to J.R. Smith for a rushed 3 pointer, that doesn't count towards that stat.

Again though it's just a new way of looking at things.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 9:10 pm
by VanWest82
Kabookalu wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:The fact that Cousins is 5th overall in this stat should tell you everything you need to know about it. Might as well put JV in the top 10 too.

Siakam has been great though.


It's not perfect but it shouldn't be dismissed as a nothing stat. It uses nba.com's tracking system to try and evaluate player's individual defenses, such as hustle stats, closest defender, etc. I know right off the bat the flaw in this, because if OG is playing elite defense on LeBron James who dribbles out the shotclock not being able to beat him to the rim, and he passes it at the last second to J.R. Smith for a rushed 3 pointer, that doesn't count towards that stat.

Again though it's just a new way of looking at things.


Using some combination of tracking stats, +/- stats, synergy stats, or traditional box score stats is fine. That's most modern NBA analytics in a nutshell. But if you miss the boat that badly with a player, especially one that plays as much as Cousins, I think you need to re-think your methodology. I feel the same way about DRPM (currently ranking Nik Vucevic as the NBA's 17th best defender).

Cousins has been qualitatively one of the worst big man defenders in the NBA this year. He's the anchor of the 25th ranked defense even though he plays with Anthony Davis. He doesn't guard PnR, is lazy / confused with help responsibilities, and often doesn't get back in transition because he takes bad shots, doesn't hustle, or is whining to the refs. I mean, you're never going to get it perfectly right - the available info just isn't good enough - but you can't miss that badly and still get taken seriously.

Re: Pascal Siakam with 4th highest Total Defensive Rating

Posted: Tue Jan 2, 2018 9:21 pm
by Kabookalu
VanWest82 wrote:
Kabookalu wrote:
VanWest82 wrote:The fact that Cousins is 5th overall in this stat should tell you everything you need to know about it. Might as well put JV in the top 10 too.

Siakam has been great though.


It's not perfect but it shouldn't be dismissed as a nothing stat. It uses nba.com's tracking system to try and evaluate player's individual defenses, such as hustle stats, closest defender, etc. I know right off the bat the flaw in this, because if OG is playing elite defense on LeBron James who dribbles out the shotclock not being able to beat him to the rim, and he passes it at the last second to J.R. Smith for a rushed 3 pointer, that doesn't count towards that stat.

Again though it's just a new way of looking at things.


Using some combination of tracking stats, +/- stats, synergy stats, or traditional box score stats is fine. That's most modern NBA analytics in a nutshell. But if you miss the boat that badly with a player, especially one that plays as much as Cousins, I think you need to re-think your methodology. I feel the same way about DRPM (currently ranking Nik Vucevic as the NBA's 17th best defender).

Cousins has been qualitatively one of the worst big man defenders in the NBA this year. He's the anchor of the 25th ranked defense even though he plays with Anthony Davis. He doesn't guard PnR, is lazy / confused with help responsibilities, and often doesn't get back in transition. I mean, you're never going to get it perfectly right - the available info just isn't good enough - but you can't miss that badly and still get taken seriously.


I let it slide because there's always been that one massive outlier in every single major statistic. Years ago I remember James Posey having an insane +/- for the then New Orleans Hornets, yet he did nothing for them. Not too long ago we had Lou Williams who had great advanced statistics, yet we've been a much better team without him.