Raptors probability to win series (updated for game 5)

Thats a Rap · Post #1 » by **Thats a Rap** » Mon Apr 16, 2018 10:56 pm

Recognizing that everyone has their own view of the probability we win this series, I wanted to share what the various online models suggest, and will be updating this after each game.

Updated after game 5:

538: 57% to win game 4, 90% to win the series
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

Basketball Reference: 92% to win the series
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoffs.html

Playoff Status: 57% to win game 4, 90% to win the series
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/nbaplayoffschedule.html

Who Wins: 67% to win game 3, 94% to win the series
* based on first round historical precedents, for teams that are up 3-2 with home court advantage
http://www.whowins.com/2018series/nba2018a.html

Updated after game 3:

Spoiler:

Updated after game 2:

Spoiler:

After game 1:

Spoiler:

Post #2 » by **lebron stopper** » Tue Apr 17, 2018 12:04 am

Thats a Rap wrote:One interesting note - game 1 is massive in terms of swinging the probabilities, whoever wins it. Every model currently has the game 1 loser as the underdog in the series, even those that lost game 1 at home. For example, every model has New Orleans and Cleveland as underdogs (though the latter seems improbable). It does make sense - even a worse team seems more likely to win 3 before the other team wins 4, especially if they can steal homecourt.

You mean Portland and Cleveland as underdogs? New Orleans came into that series as the 6th seeded away team, even though they finished 1 win worse than Portland and have the best player in the series by far (and the mythical playoff Rondo, it looks like).

Thats a Rap · Post #3 » by **Thats a Rap** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 11:50 am

lebron stopper wrote:
Thats a Rap wrote:One interesting note - game 1 is massive in terms of swinging the probabilities, whoever wins it. Every model currently has the game 1 loser as the underdog in the series, even those that lost game 1 at home. For example, every model has New Orleans and Cleveland as underdogs (though the latter seems improbable). It does make sense - even a worse team seems more likely to win 3 before the other team wins 4, especially if they can steal homecourt.

You mean Portland and Cleveland as underdogs? New Orleans came into that series as the 6th seeded away team, even though they finished 1 win worse than Portland and have the best player in the series by far (and the mythical playoff Rondo, it looks like).

Yes, you are correct - I did mean New Orleans.

**OP updated after game 2...

OakleyDokely · Post #4 » by **OakleyDokely** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:09 pm

Raptors, Games 1 and 2 of playoff series:

13/14: 93.5 PPG
14/15: 96.0 PPG
15/16: 94.0 PPG
16/17: 94.5 PPG
17/18: 122.0 PPG

mattkobe1984 · Post #5 » by **mattkobe1984** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:15 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:Raptors, Games 1 and 2 of playoff series:

13/14: 93.5 PPG
14/15: 96.0 PPG
15/16: 94.0 PPG
16/17: 94.5 PPG
17/18: 122.0 PPG

Damn......

ishoy123 · Post #6 » by **ishoy123** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:39 pm

Thats a Rap wrote:Recognizing that everyone has their own view of the probability we win this series, I wanted to share what the various online models suggest, and will be updating this after each game.

Updated after game 2:

538: 66% to win game 3, 97% to win the series
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

Basketball Reference: 97% to win the series
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoffs.html

Playoff Status: 59% to win game 3, 96% to win the series
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/nbaplayoffschedule.html

Who Wins: 50% to win game 3, 94% to win the series
* based on first round historical precedents, for teams that win game 1 and 2 at home
http://www.whowins.com/2018series/nba2018a.html

After game 1:
Spoiler:
538: 85% to win game 2, 95% to win the series
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

Basketball Reference: 93% to win the series
https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/playoffs.html

Playoff Status: 79% to win game 2, 92% to win the series
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/nbaplayoffschedule.html

Who Wins: 82% to win game 2, 88% to win the series
* based on first round historical precedents, for teams that win game 1 at home
http://www.whowins.com/2018series/nba2018a.html

One interesting note - game 1 is massive in terms of swinging the probabilities, whoever wins it. Every model currently has the game 1 loser as the underdog in the series, even those that lost game 1 at home. For example, every model has New Orleans and Cleveland as underdogs (though the latter seems improbable). It does make sense - even a worse team seems more likely to win 3 before the other team wins 4, especially if they can steal homecourt.

How does bball reference make their projections?

Mister Ze · Post #7 » by **Mister Ze** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:44 pm

Game 3 is where the series either gets iced or the Wizards start believing they'll win.

Raps in 4

shmoosicle · Post #8 » by **shmoosicle** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:49 pm

Master Ze wrote:Game 3 is where the series either gets iced or the Wizards start believing they'll win.

Raps in 4

Well it looks like these projections say there's a good chance we lose this game and still go on to win the series. I think Raptors in 5 or 6 is more likely.

Courtside · Post #9 » by **Courtside** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:58 pm

I'd kind of like the series to go 5 games, so we can take the W at home to reward the fans, as well as make those extra few $ which can't hurt when it comes time to decide on being a tax team or not. A sweep would be a more dramatic payback to the Wizards, of course.

There are plenty of stories about how GSW and Cleveland won the Championship but didn't make much money from it, and that's because they swept their way through too many series and played too few home games. I know we don't care about Rogers and Bell and their billions, but MLSE will certainly make their spending decisions on how much money is earned by being in the playoffs. Going 7 games basically doubles their earnings, so as a fan I'm at least willing to indulge the organization in trying to maximize revenues while balancing with those interests with winning in the fewest games for the sake of our players - that means winning 4-1 in every series we can and of do eventually lose praying for that to be Finals against GSW), we take that series to 7.

ropjhk · Post #10 » by **ropjhk** » Wed Apr 18, 2018 3:55 pm

Courtside wrote:I'd kind of like the series to go 5 games, so we can take the W at home to reward the fans, as well as make those extra few $ which can't hurt when it comes time to decide on being a tax team or not. A sweep would be a more dramatic payback to the Wizards, of course.

There are plenty of stories about how GSW and Cleveland won the Championship but didn't make much money from it, and that's because they swept their way through too many series and played too few home games. I know we don't care about Rogers and Bell and their billions, but MLSE will certainly make their spending decisions on how much money is earned by being in the playoffs. Going 7 games basically doubles their earnings, so as a fan I'm at least willing to indulge the organization in trying to maximize revenues while balancing with those interests with winning in the fewest games for the sake of our players - that means winning 4-1 in every series we can and of do eventually lose praying for that to be Finals against GSW), we take that series to 7.

Forget that. Sweeping the Wizards will be sweet payback and the good feelings will be worth more than 1 more playoff home game in the long run.

Thats a Rap · Post #11 » by **Thats a Rap** » Sat Apr 21, 2018 7:05 pm

**updated for game 3. We are still roughly 90% to win the series, though game 4 gives a decent range of potential outcomes from slight underdog to slight favourite.

Interestingly we are 1.5 point favourites in game 4, despite entering game 3 as underdogs, and then getting blown out. It suggests an expectation that the Wizards were likely to play hard back at home, but now that they've gone all out to not get swept, we are back in the driver's seat.

Thats a Rap · Post #12 » by **Thats a Rap** » Fri Apr 27, 2018 12:09 pm

** updated after game 5

Sorry, I hadn't been around much of the week and missed post game 4, but most predictions said we were 80% to win the series tied 2-2 with homecourt.

Now updated for post game 5, which is pretty much identical to where we were after game 3 (~90% to win series). So to recap, we went from around 95% after game 2, to 90% after game 3, to 80% after game 4, back up to 90% after game 5. We've been massive favourites this whole way, even if at times it didn't feel like it.

If we lose game 6, I believe we will be back to where we were after game 4, somewhere in the 75-80% range for game 7.