mdenny wrote:The underrating of Fred VV is chronic. This dude is going to win wherever he goes. He is always in the perfect place on the court. His IQ is through the roof and his temperment is ob a champion level.
Play-by-play data suggests otherwise. During the 2018-19 season, Fred VanVleet was heavily/overly reliant on playing next to Kyle Lowry in order to be incredibly effective, while the reverse wasn't true (Lowry could move the needle significantly with or without VanVleet).
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612761&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=All&PlayerIds=200768,1627832Kyle Lowry
ON, Fred VanVleet
OFF: +9.65 (2092 min)
Kyle Lowry
OFF, Fred VanVleet
ON: +2.84 (1331 min)
Kyle Lowry
ON, Fred VanVleet
ON: +11.77 (1022 min)
As you can see, Fred VanVleet without Kyle Lowry was worse than Kyle Lowry without Fred VanVleet. Let's take a deeper look at this:
Fred VanVleet numbers in lineups without Kyle Lowry:+2.84 points per 100 possessions
40.34% 2pt FG (25.00% assisted)
33.20% 3pt FG (73.17% assisted)
50.93% 3-point rate
45.15% eFG
48.77% TS
19.72% Usage
Fred VanVleet numbers in lineups with Kyle Lowry:+11.77 points per 100 possessions
48.51% 2pt FG (36.92% assisted)
46.26% 3pt FG (83.82% assisted)
52.31% 3-point rate
59.43% eFG
62.17% TS
14.60% Usage
Fred VanVleet numbers difference with Kyle Lowry on the floor:
+8.93 points per 100 possessions
+20.25% increase in 2pt FG percentage
+39.34% increase in 3pt FG percentage
+2.71% increase in 3-point rate
+31.63% increase in eFG percentage
+27.48% increase in TS percentage
-25.96% decrease in Usage percentage
BONUS:Kyle Lowry numbers in lineups without Fred VanVleet:+9.65 points per 100 possessions
52.40% 2pt FG (33.80% assisted)
34.95% 3pt FG (71.53% assisted)
59.13% 3-point rate
52.41% eFG
55.96% TS
18.93% Usage
Kyle Lowry numbers in lineups with Fred VanVleet:+11.77 points per 100 possessions
51.02% 2pt FG (22.67% assisted)
34.95% 3pt FG (81.94% assisted)
58.36% 3-point rate
51.84% eFG
56.09% TS
19.73% Usage
Kyle Lowry numbers difference with Fred VanVleet on the floor:
+2.12 points per 100 possessions
-2.63% decrease in 2pt FG percentage
0.00% increase in 3pt FG percentage
-1.30% decrease in 3-point rate
-1.09% decrease in eFG percentage
+0.23% increase in TS percentage (ie. shoots a few more free throws with FVV)
+4.23% increase in Usage percentage
mdenny wrote:In the coming years Fred will constitute 1 piece of a big three. We lock up Fred and Pascal longterm....we will always be one piece away from contending. This final piece can either be interchangeable or a signing we convince to play here longterm (not holding my breath). Fred and Pascal like it here. We HAVE to sign both of them. We will make the playoffs for every year they play here. Fred is a pure winner that we might be able to sign for 20 milly per year longterm. It's the complete opposite....signing fred longterm guarantees us sticking around contention.
Here's the problem with signing Fred VanVleet to such a huge ~$20 million per year contract:
https://stats.nba.com/players/ball-handler/#!?CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*fred%20vanvleet&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&PerMode=TotalsFred VanVleet attacked as the pick-and-roll ball handler 34.8% of the time in the regular season, and scored 0.78 points per possession, which puts him in the 39th percentile of all pick-and-roll ball handlers in the league. This didn't get any better in the playoffs, where he was in the 38th percentile. If you want a Kyle Lowry replacement, it can't be someone who operates in the pick-and-roll so frequently, yet is utterly putrid at scoring out of it.
https://www.pbpstats.com/wowy-combos/nba?TeamId=1610612761&Season=2018-19&SeasonType=All&PlayerIds=1627783,1627832The Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet duo is +9.26 in 1458 min, whereas Pascal Siakam without Fred VanVleet is +9.30 in 1981 min. Basically, Siakam didn't need VanVleet, someone who "guarantees us sticking around contention" despite being far less effective without Lowry. What's going on here?
Pascal Siakam numbers in lineups without Fred VanVleet:+9.30 points per 100 possessions
60.54% 2pt FG (50.84% assisted)
38.50% 3pt FG (98.61% assisted)
24.23% 3-point rate
59.79% eFG
62.86% TS
21.18% Usage
Pascal Siakam numbers in lineups with Fred VanVleet:+9.26 points per 100 possessions
55.69% 2pt FG (50.21% assisted)
27.69% 3pt FG (94.44% assisted)
23.55% 3-point rate
52.36% eFG
57.25% TS
21.97% Usage
Pascal Siakam numbers difference with Fred VanVleet on the floor:
-0.04 points per 100 possessions
-8.01% decrease in 2pt FG percentage
-28.08% decrease in 3pt FG percentage
-2.81% decrease in 3-point rate
-12.43% decrease in eFG percentage
-8.92% decrease in TS percentage
+3.73% increase in Usage percentage
tl;dr: Siakam experiences a big drop in efficiency and almost no change in plus-minus whenever he plays next to "pure winner" VanVleet.
There's plenty of evidence here to show that VanVleet isn't all that great, by (1) needing Lowry in order to be more effective, (2) not being a good ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, and (3) making Siakam shoot worse whenever he's around. VanVleet isn't a terrible player, but he is incredibly flawed, and all of these red flags suggest that he isn't someone that you pay $20 million per year or include in your "big three" with Siakam.
