NCAA Watch list part 3: THE ROOKIES (1-5)

[Hair Canada]

The previous posts on returning players:

viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1761677
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1762046


All the players that I’m going to mention here have at least some features that make them NBA potentials (size, athleticism, strength, unique skill, etc.). Naturally, not all of them will make it, but to have this many Canadian players with this kind of potential in one class is truly unprecedented. This is the deepest class we’ve ever had in Canadian history, and it’s not even close. In my view, 8 of these are top-100 prospects in North America, 5 are top-50, 3 top-20, and 2 top-10 (and yes, one is also the best in this class).

I put them here more or less in the order in which I think of their potential to become future NBA players, though except for Barrett at the top there’s nothing too firm about this ranking and I can certainly see some shifts happening once the college season begins.

1. RJ Barrett, Duke (18yo 6’7 SG; 6’10 wingspan). No need to say much about him as a player. The big question is how he will do alongside two players projected to go in the top-10, maybe even top-5 in the next draft (Cam Reddish and Zion Williamson) and how well Duke is going to fare after losing its entire starting five from last year and playing a completely new team, mostly rookies. There’s also the issue of Barrett, Reddish and Williamson all being wings at this level, though RJ is projected to play more at the 2 and Zion will probably play mainly at the 4 (or maybe even the 5 sometimes). From what I’ve seen in the past, Reddish actually has a higher theoretical ceiling than RJ. He’s taller, stronger, has a more natural outside shot with a higher release and better accuracy, and he might also be a better passer. But RJ is clearly superior in one department, which for me is the most important one – his mentality, drive, and passion for the game. And I think these will still make him a superior player in the future, but also Duke’s best player this year.

A key area of improvement for RJ will be his three-point shooting, which has always been somewhat of a weakness. Toward the end of the season, it seemed like he was starting to make it more regularly. In his last high school game, the Signature All Canadian game, he shot 7-10 from 3, en route to a 47 points game. Obviously that’s an anomaly (didn’t shoot that well on his Canada tour and in the games with the senior team Canada). But it seems like he’s been working very hard on this part of his game, including throughout this summer, and his form also looks better. If he can get to around 35% shooting at college, it might be enough at this point. Hopefully, his handle and finish with his right hand also continue to improve.

2. Simi Shi-ttu, Vanderbilt (almost 19yo; 6’10 PF; 7’0 wingspan). Prior to Barrett’s reclassification, Simi was considered the top player in this class and a clear future NBA player. His size is not overwhelming, but he’s an excellent athlete, strong, and plays with a fantastic motor. Simi reminds me a bit of Tristan Thompson, but with better talent. I know it’s fashionable now to completely dis Tristan, but he does a couple of things at an elite level, especially offensive rebounding, hustle, and switching on guards in the pick and roll, all very important qualities in today’s NBA. If Simi can show a similar contribution in these departments, he’ll have a lot to build on, because he clearly has more offensive talent than TT. Both are not elite finishers around the rim, but Simi has more of a range, still-developing perimeter skills and handle, and better court vision and passing skills.

It’s really too bad about the ACL injury in January that cut short what could have been a breakout high school season for Simi, who was working really hard on becoming more of a combo-forward. It looks like he’s ready to play full time at Vanderbilt from the get go, but it often takes some time to get back to 100% after this kind of injury (and sometimes it doesn’t happen at all), and it’s especially likely to affect his athletic ability and perhaps also psychologically affect his desire to hustle. So even if he eventually comes fully back (quite likely with a young player like him), the one-and-done no longer seems like a sure thing and we might see him play multiple college years.

3. Lugenz Dort, Arizona State (19.5yo; 6’5 SG; 6’9 wingspan). I really like his game and think that he's going to be very good next year at Arizona State (and the team will be good as well). Lu is a Montreal native who had a very good season last year. Got to see many of his games, and he was always the best player on the court playing for a talented Athlete Institute, alongside Addison Patterson. Lu was particularly great in the OSBA playoffs, where he scored more than 40 points a game and really carried an injured team on his (very broad) shoulders. Scored at will, shot the ball well, and was the focal point on defense (including some highlight blocks and a nose for stealing the ball). What I especially like about Dort is that he's tenacious and plays hard on both ends of the floor. Beyond being a very good scorer, he's also a willing and good passer (especially to bigs), though not a natural PG. His three-point shot, which used to be a weakness, has really improved during the year (as did his free throws) and he's been knocking them down quite consistently, with a nice high arc. He shoots it pretty flat-footed though (his shot is somewhere between a set shot and a jump shot), so he might find it a bit harder to get clean looks at the next level.

As for the weaker points of his game, his handle is not bad but will need to continue improving in order to be able to get to the basket like he did in high school and he's a bit turnover prone. He also lacks a degree of creativeness around the basket. At the high school level, he didn’t really need much of it, as he just bullied defenders (sometimes two of them) and no one could put a body on him. But in college, and especially in the NBA (I feel quite confident that he'll eventually get there), when he meets players who can match his ridiculous physicality, he'll have to get more creative and savvy. Also, he's a very good athlete, but not freakish and not that that fast in NBA terms. His first step is not explosive, so I do think he'll have to find other ways to get to his spots and finish. All in all, as I said, I really love his competitive spirit. I think his best NBA comparison is Marcus Smart (with a better shot) and I would love to see him develop a similar defensive lock-down mentality. At the very least, he should end up as a better version of Rawle Alkins, as Dort is even stronger and more offensively gifted.

4. Andrew Nembhard, Florida (18.5yo (almost 19) 6’4 PG; 6’6 wingspan). I like Nembhard more and more each time I see him. Up until a year ago, I thought he was another version of Tyler Ennis – a nice PG, but with limited athleticism, speed, and shooting, who would have a really hard time finding a place on a roster in today’s NBA. I since watched him lead Montverde (with RJ Barrett of course) to a perfect season and a national high school title, lead the Canadian U18 team in the FIBA Americas, where he was head and shoulders above everyone else on the team (and also led the tournament in assists and steals), and then even play well with the senior men team. Andrew is a smart and composed player, with a very nice midrange game, including an efficient floater game, and he can also finish at the rim with some contact, a skill that he has improved considerably over the last two years. His mediocre physical profile in terms of length, athleticism and strength still means that he sometimes has a hard time against elite defenders (as shown in the finals of the U18 FIBA Americas against the US). But I think with time he’ll learn how to handle this and remain a contributor.

Of note, Nembhard’s outside shooting has really improved. It used to look flat, with a low and a bit slow release. It’s much more fluid now, though he still shoots a bit of a push shot from the side of his body with a lower release point. He also makes it really well when open and when he has some time to aim. On the down side, he mostly doesn’t really shoot off the dribble (although he did show some encouraging signs of that at the U18s) and might have a hard time creating his own shot in the NBA. But eventually, he’ll live and die on his passing, which is his greatest strength. I think he’s going to get big minutes next year in Florida, as he’s a coaches’ player – coaches love what his presence on the court gives a team. If he and the team can have a strong season (something similar to what Ennis had at his rookie year in Syracuse), he might be able to carve his way into a first-round pick in the 2019 draft.

5. Jaelin Llewellyn, Princeton (19.5yo 6’2 PG; 6’4 wingspan). Llewellyn is the son of Toronto basketball legend Cordell (Bobby) Llewellyn, whose career was cut short due to injury in college. From a physical standpoint, Llewellyn reminds me most of Lindell Wigginton. They share a very similar (and somewhat unimpressive) size, but are both excellent athletes who can finish above the rim with ease and contort their bodies for athletic finishes around the rim. Both also shoot the ball fairly well with strong legs and are good scorers. Wigginton has a stronger physique and is already tested at the college level, playing for a high-major college. He also played for a much more highly-touted high school program and with the Canadian national team, so he already has a few years of experience playing against top competition. Despite this, for me Llewellyn might have a higher ceiling. This is mainly because, unlike Wiggy, he’s a true PG and a better decision maker. Given their size, this might be a deciding factor in their ability to be contributing rotation players in the NBA. In any case, for both, much will depend on their outside shooting.

Llewellyn is also interesting because of his decision to go to an Ivy League school despite offers from more prestigious basketball (but not academic) programs. Some might hold it against him, especially given Ivy League’s poor record in producing future NBA players (you’ll have to go back to the 1970’s to find a Princeton graduate who made some impact in the NBA). But I still believe in him. He’s a really unique talent, and if all goes well he’ll eventually get to the NBA. If he maximizes his potential and is able to lead Princeton to the March Madness this year (won’t be easy, especially given how strong Harvard has gotten), he might even amaze and become a one-and-done, though that’s quite a long shot.

[PoundTown]

I'd slot Iggy in at 5 rather than Jaelin, but nice takes. I'm really high on Nembhard too, probably put him before Dort. I see Nembhard as a two and out. Tons of talent to work with there.

[mojo13]

I'd slot Iggy in at 5 rather than Jaelin, but nice takes. I'm really high on Nembhard too, probably put him before Dort. I see Nembhard as a two and out. Tons of talent to work with there.

Ya - Its quibbling but I agree based on the early positive stories about Iggy at Michigan and how he performed on their trip to Spain (led them in scoring). He will be playing both the 4 and 2 for Michigan in a very intricate system that requires very different things from those positions. The fact that Beilein has enough confidence in Iggy to do this is impressive in its own right. If Iggy succeeds, his NBA options will open up meaningfully with this proven versatility and potential as an NBA 2 or 3 - as I agree I am skeptical about his NBA potential as a 4.

I am hearing loads of good reports about Dort at ASU too and think his ranking here is right.

Great stuff once again Hair - of course.

[Hair Canada]

Yes, it's a tough toss between Iggy (who's at 6 for me) and Jaelin. went back and forth on that one, as I love what Iggy brings, but eventually, it doesn't really matter. Jaelin is just a very unique prospect for me. Kind of a sleeper.

Same for Dort and Nembhard, but here I'm higher on Dort's long-term potential and especially his physical fit to the NBA and potential to be a lock-down defender.

[aminiaturebuddha]

Great work as always, Hair. Love what you've brought to this board over the past year.

I have to admit that Dort is the player out of all of these guys that I've seen play the least. I really need to find a way to watch a bunch of his games this year.

[Hair Canada]

Great work as always, Hair. Love what you've brought to this board over the past year.

I have to admit that Dort is the player out of all of these guys that I've seen play the least. I really need to find a way to watch a bunch of his games this year.

Dort is the one rookie, besides Barrett and Simi, who has a real shot I think to break into draft conversations already this year. Part of it is a very good situation for him at Arizona State, which will allow him to show his skills.

[NotMyKawhi]

I have Andrew at #3

He will lead the NCAA in assits and this year the PG class is weak

[Kevin Willis]

So only Simi and RJ can be considered first rounders - seems like our Canadian depth is getting worse.

[mojo13]

So only Simi and RJ can be considered first rounders - seems like our Canadian depth is getting worse.

Not sure if that is a joke...but if serious, I have no idea how you read that into this. This a by far and away the deepest talent pool Canada has ever had in the NCAA. Serious people see 3-5 first rounders this year alone and maybe 6-8 over the next two years.

Whatever ends up happening, I don't recall ever a time when there was some much Canadian NBA potential in the near term pipeline.

[markban21]

So only Simi and RJ can be considered first rounders - seems like our Canadian depth is getting worse.

Not sure if that is a joke...but if serious, I have no idea how you read that into this. This a by far and away the deepest talent pool Canada has ever had in the NCAA. Serious people see 3-5 first rounders this year alone and maybe 6-8 over the next two years.

Whatever ends up happening, I don't recall ever a time when there was some much Canadian NBA potential in the near term pipeline.

Was thinking the same thing! The most Canadians ever drafted in the first round in the same year was three in 2014 (Wiggins, Stauskas, and Ennis). Having a potential 5 this year, with the top 1 or 2 pick, is a testament to how far the Canadian talent pool has come! Not that it is drying up

[tdotrep2]

what picks do we still own?

[Kevin Willis]

So only Simi and RJ can be considered first rounders - seems like our Canadian depth is getting worse.

Not sure if that is a joke...but if serious, I have no idea how you read that into this. This a by far and away the deepest talent pool Canada has ever had in the NCAA. Serious people see 3-5 first rounders this year alone and maybe 6-8 over the next two years.

Whatever ends up happening, I don't recall ever a time when there was some much Canadian NBA potential in the near term pipeline.

Was thinking the same thing! The most Canadians ever drafted in the first round in the same year was three in 2014 (Wiggins, Stauskas, and Ennis). Having a potential 5 this year, with the top 1 or 2 pick, is a testament to how far the Canadian talent pool has come! Not that it is drying up

I took the names listed and compared against draft boards. The only name I saw was RJ. We've had top picks before so that's not new for Canada. Unless it's in the NCAA period I didn't look at it that way and that's where I could be wrong, I was only looking at this year's draft but I will keep an eye on these players going forward.

[Hair Canada]

Not sure if that is a joke...but if serious, I have no idea how you read that into this. This a by far and away the deepest talent pool Canada has ever had in the NCAA. Serious people see 3-5 first rounders this year alone and maybe 6-8 over the next two years.

Whatever ends up happening, I don't recall ever a time when there was some much Canadian NBA potential in the near term pipeline.

Was thinking the same thing! The most Canadians ever drafted in the first round in the same year was three in 2014 (Wiggins, Stauskas, and Ennis). Having a potential 5 this year, with the top 1 or 2 pick, is a testament to how far the Canadian talent pool has come! Not that it is drying up

I took the names listed and compared against draft boards. The only name I saw was RJ. We've had top picks before so that's not new for Canada. Unless it's in the NCAA period I didn't look at it that way and that's where I could be wrong, I was only looking at this year's draft but I will keep an eye on these players going forward.

Not sure which mock draft you looked at. Draft net, for example, has 3 projected first draft picks from Canada. NBA Draft Room projects 4.

And, as I say above, it's also a matter of depth, which didn't exist before at this level. 64 new Canadian players are joining NCAA division 1 this year (45 from high school and 19 from JoCo). The former record (from last year) was around 40.

[Kevin Willis]

Was thinking the same thing! The most Canadians ever drafted in the first round in the same year was three in 2014 (Wiggins, Stauskas, and Ennis). Having a potential 5 this year, with the top 1 or 2 pick, is a testament to how far the Canadian talent pool has come! Not that it is drying up

I took the names listed and compared against draft boards. The only name I saw was RJ. We've had top picks before so that's not new for Canada. Unless it's in the NCAA period I didn't look at it that way and that's where I could be wrong, I was only looking at this year's draft but I will keep an eye on these players going forward.

Not sure which mock draft you looked at. Draft net, for example, has 3 projected first draft picks from Canada. NBA Draft Room projects 4.

And, as I say above, it's also a matter of depth, which didn't exist before at this level. 64 new Canadian players are joining NCAA division 1 this year (45 from high school and 19 from JoCo). The former record (from last year) was around 40.

Fair enough. Draftnet has Alexander-Walker and Wigginton but they were not in your top 5 so I didn't look for them. I see your other posts now so i will review it. I mostly care about draftable players in next year's draft so I'm looking for them. I will read your posts to learn more.

[MEDIC]

I've seen Dort play a couple of times. He is an absolute beast physically. He has some extremely powerful dunks & some good air time on them. He is without a doubt the most exciting Canadian on a fast break.

There is a lot he needs to work on though. Most notably his ball handling. He would be a SG or SF in the NBA & his handles are kinda weak in traffic........not to say he can't improve.

I also think that once he gets it through his head that he doesn't need to try to dunk everything, he'll be a more efficient player because he does have a decent touch around the basket.

If he can get his 3 point shot to a high % & focus on defense, maybe the guy he should be modelling his game after is PJ Tucker. PJ Tucker with Dorts athleticism would be a lot of fun to watch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

So hard to assess these guys in highschool though (just look at at SGA). We'll know a lot more about them after a year in the NCAA.

[Hair Canada]

I've seen Dort play a couple of times. He is an absolute beast physically. He has some extremely powerful dunks & some good air time on them. He is without a doubt the most exciting Canadian on a fast break.

There is a lot he needs to work on though. Most notably his ball handling. He would be a SG or SF in the NBA & his handles are kinda weak in traffic........not to say he can't improve.

I also think that once he gets it through his head that he doesn't need to try to dunk everything, he'll be a more efficient player because he does have a decent touch around the basket.

If he can get his 3 point shot to a high % & focus on defense, maybe the guy he should be modelling his game after is PJ Tucker. PJ Tucker with Dorts athleticism would be a lot of fun to watch.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

So hard to assess these guys in highschool though (just look at at SGA). We'll know a lot more about them after a year in the NCAA.

Nice analysis of Dort. PJ Tucker is an interesting comparison. They are nearly the same height, but I think Dort is more of a guard and Tucker more an undersized combo forward. But yes, both strong tough defenders. PJ had to move around quite a bit (including Europe) before he found his place in the NBA. Hopefully, Dort manages to just get to the league and stay there.