NCAA Watch list part 4: THE ROOKIES (6-10)

[Hair Canada]

Okay, here is the last part of this review for the upcoming NCAA season. Can't wait for the season to start on Tuesday.

The first three parts:

1. Returning players (1-5): viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1761677
2. Returning players (6-10): viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1762046
3. Rookies (1-5): viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1762502


6. Ignas Brezdaikis, Michigan (19.5yo (almost 20); 6’7 SF; 6’9 wingspan with big palms). The Canadian/Lithuanian has been tearing it up in the OSBA for the last two years (two-time season MVP). He has excellent strength (220 pounds), with strong legs, making it very hard to knock him off his spots. Great at finishing with contact and getting to the line and he’s very creative around the basket. Also a pretty good athlete (though not elite) and knocks down open 3-point shots pretty consistently, even though his shot can be a bit flat at times. In terms of an NBA comparison, I think of him as a better more-polished version of Omri Casspi. Casspi is a bit taller, but Iggy is already stronger and more skilled than Casspi was when he was his age.

I’ve read many doubtful accounts about Iggy – is he athletic enough? Is he long enough, and can he finish against length? Can he keep up with elite wings on defense? I certainly get it, but I think his offensive potential outweighs these legitimate concerns and since he’s a smart player, I also think he’ll eventually be fine on defense. His offense is just so polished and smooth and he can really do it all -- great perimeter shot, can get to the basket at will, fantastic at drawing contact and going to the line (great free throw percentage), and an excellent nose for second-chance opportunities. Perhaps most importantly, Iggy is constantly in “attack” mentality and doesn’t shy away from competition. And despite not being that quick or long, he also has a knack for stealing the ball. I can't see how all this would not translate to the college level with his combination of size, maturity, and intelligence. I think he's going to be a star in Michigan, although not necessarily right away. And I also think he’ll eventually get to the NBA, perhaps even as a first rounder.

If we’re looking for a Canadian comparison, we can try Nick Stauskas -- both are of Lithuanian descent and both played/will play for Michigan. Stauskas (who really seems to be bouncing back this year) is certainly a better and more natural shooter, but Iggy is bigger, stronger, more diverse, more crafty, and just a better player all around (including defensively). And he also seems stronger mentally, which might be a real difference maker.


7. AJ Lawson, South Carolina (18yo 6’7 CG; 6’10 wingspan). Lawson is the guy that’s perhaps hardest for me to rank and I keep going back and forth on him. He arguably has a higher ceiling than players like Nembhard, Brazdeikis and maybe even Dort. He might actually end up as the third best NBA player from this group, after Barrett and Simi. But I think he also has a lower floor. If he doesn’t manage to put on enough weight and solidify his game, he’ll have a really hard time making an impact at the next level (even the NCAA). Of all the guys on this list, he is the one who’s least ready for college from what I’ve seen (also the youngest, together with Barrett). I thought he could easily have stayed another year in high school, but actually appreciate that he wants to compete on a higher level and challenge himself, which is indeed an issue when playing high school basketball, especially when staying in Canada.

I did like what I saw from AJ in the U18 FIBA Americas. Due to an injury, he only played 4 full games, but he played well and had almost 18 points a game. Really improved since his high school season. Scored the ball well (50% from the field; 44% from 3) and didn’t take many bad shots. Changed his 3-point shooting to more of a flat-footed shot, which did well for his form and precision. It’s also easier to contest though, and I’m still not sure if that’s how it’s going to eventually look like. He seems to be still experimenting with that and will maybe eventually settle on something in between.

Another thing I really like about Lawson is his defensive effort. While his slight frame means he is sometimes overpowered, especially when stronger guards manage to post-up on him, he has quick feet and hands and he plays with a good level of intensity on this side of the floor, including a good nose for steals and defensive rebounds. On the minus side, he’s still painfully thin, despite putting on some extra pounds, and will likely always have a skinny frame. Consequently, he cannot finish well with contact against stronger players, which was really obvious against the US. Also didn’t pass the ball very well and doesn’t create much for others. Much more a SG than a CG, and he’ll need to get significantly stronger to compete with the opposition at that position. AJ still has a long way to go. I think it will take him some time to adjust to college basketball and I’d be really surprised if he ends up as a one-and-done. But he certainly has very promising long-term upside, which might or might not realize.


8. Dalano Banton, Western Kentucky (19yo 6’7 CG; 6’10 wingspan). One of the more underrated Canadians coming out of high school this year. Reminds me a bit of SGA, who was also underrated coming into college last year. Like Shai, somewhat of a late-bloomer, who has really made some significant strides during his final high school year. Like Shai, not the strongest or most athletic guard you will find, though he can certainly finish above the rim in traffic. Has somewhat of an underwhelming frame, sporting narrow hips and thin shoulders. But, again like Shai, he has long strides, plays with composure, deceptively changes speeds, and able to regularly get to the basket despite his lack of explosive first step. Shai is certainly a better defender at this point (and most likely also in the long-run), but Banton is arguably a scorer than Shai was last year (in particular, he has a better shooting form), and he is likely to get even better, as he is about two years younger than SGA. Shai has made tremendous leaps during the last two years, so it remains to be seen if Banton can do the same.

When he’s fully engaged and in attack mode, Banton can be very dominant on both ends of the floor, with great size for a combo guard. He’s a good ball handler, who can definitely lead the offense at least some of the time. Showed good scoring abilities last year from all three levels. His 3-point shot still needs refinement and greater persistency. But he already has floaters and mid-range stop-and-pops in his arsenal, and can also finish nicely at the rim with either hand.


9. Eze Dike, Yale (6’2 PG). The second Ivy League commit on this list. Montreal’s Eze Dike (pronounced “ézé diké”) is another fantastic athlete, in the mold of Llewellyn and Wigginton, although not as talented. To be honest, I haven’t seen enough complete games from him to form a decisive opinion. His mixed tapes look great, but those are often deceiving. Still, he seems to be a good defender (stronger body than Llewellyn), has very solid court vision, and he’s particularly strong at finding a lane, driving, and finishing with a jam or some creativeness around the basket. Looks like he’s going to be very good next year at Yale.


10. Noah Kirkwood, Harvard (18.5yo (almost 19) 6’7 SG; 6’7 wingspan). Kirkwood will join two fellow Canadian’s at Harvard – Danilo Djuricic and Corey Johnson, completing a trio of top-10 class of 2018 players from north of the border who chose to go to an Ivy League school (and 6 total Canadians who will play in Harvard, Princeton and Yale next year). Of the three, it’s likely that not more than one will eventually find a place in the NBA (my money is on Llewellyn).

Kirkwood, who’s originally from Ottawa, is a skilled and big guard, who’s been working hard over the last two years on developing some lead guard skills, but from what I’ve seen he’s not there yet. He does many things well, but none of them at the NBA level. Good size (definitely if he can play the PG for stretches), but a relatively short wingspan and limited athleticism will make it hard for him to stay with opposing explosive guards. He also has a pretty good handle, but certainly not what you see from lead guards at the highest levels, and it would not allow him to create separation given his mediocre speed. Pretty strong and well built, but again not a physical specimen. Also a good shooter, but not elite. In short, I think Kirkwood is a really good player. He just doesn’t have anything that clearly says he’s an NBA prospect. He might still eventually get there in some constellation, but it’s hard for me to see him making a serious impact. And although he did not go to a high major school, I’m also not sure about his playing time next year. Harvard is bringing back the most talented team in the Ivy League and an experienced and very solid backcourt, which might make it hard for Kirkwood to get significant playing time.


A FEW OTHERS

Beyond the ten names above (particularly the first eight), I’d be somewhat surprised if anyone else from this class makes it to the NBA, as talent level falls quite significantly thereafter. Still, here are 4 more players with some potential to break into the conversation:

Kaosi Ezeago (6’10 C; University of Texas, El Paso). I watched many of his games last year and was generally unimpressed. Despite his size (7’1 wingspan and a strong upper body), he didn’t play that aggressively, showed mediocre athleticism and offensive skill, and was sometimes dominated by smaller players. Was able to make an impact on the defensive end due to his size, but was somewhat heavy and slow and didn’t really look like a great potential. But then he improved toward the end of the season, and in particular during the two all-star games (Biosteel and Signature) in April, where he was the best big man around. In these games he looked like a different player – showed good hands, finished pick and rolls with authority, and continued to be dominant on the defensive end. If he can take this to El Paso next season and build on it, I’ll have to reevaluate.

Keshaun Saunders (6’4 SG, Toledo). Keshaun was really good last year playing for Orangeville Prep against Canadian competition in the OSBA, alongside Iggy Brezdaikis. Toward the middle of the season, there were games in which his shot was falling where he looked like a potential college star. But when Orangeville played against fiercer competition in the States, or sometimes even in Canada, I was quite disappointed with how he looked like – both his performance and his competitiveness. Seemed like he got used to the subpar defenses of the OSBA and couldn’t really find himself against better defenders. In principle, he seems to have it all – great outside shooting, good (although not great) athleticism, nice handle and penetration, and even a decent stop-and-pop. Nothing is elite, but when he’s in a zone he looks like a good high-major NCAA player. He just doesn’t bring it consistently and I have some doubts about his motor.

Jonathan Kabongo. Mick’s brother. 6’5 SG with good athleticism who will play for Virginia Tech next year, next to NAW. Not as talented as his brother (Mick at his age was considered a top-50 player in North America). From what I’ve seen he has a fantastic outside shot, especially on the catch and shoot, but he can also create separation or elevate off the dribble in pick and roll situations. But in the games I’ve seen he hasn’t shown much more than that. Not very long (6’6 wingspan) and just an okay athlete. Mediocre handle and vision and not much of a penetration and facilitating for others. Clearly a score-first guard. He’s a good and motivated defender, so he might find his minutes with the years, especially if he can improve his skills and penetration (I should say that he came back from a very long injury, so maybe he still lacks confidence). But I don’t think he’s an NBA prospect and he’ll have a hard time finding minutes this year with the Hokies’ loaded backcourt.

Ja’Shon Henry (6’5 SF/PF; Bradley). A scorer with attack mentality and a very good mix of athleticism and physicality at the high school level, where he was both strong and explosive. NPH have been quite big on him (probably because he played in their league). I’m not that enthusiastic, mainly because eventually he’s a PF in the body of a guard or SF. I do love his mentality, strength and passion for the game. But his outside shooting still looks quite weird and unnatural (in particular how he aligns his feet), and it’s very inconsistent. His touch around the basket is also just average. I think that once he meets bigger competitors in college, which he can no longer bully, he’ll have a hard time getting to the bucket and finishing efficiently, even with his motor. The potential is still there, but only if he can develop a consistent shot and improve his handle.



Most teams start playing this Tuesday, November 6. And there’s an especially interesting game between Duke with Barrett and Kentucky, which is projected to be really good this year.

Let the games begin!

[mojo13]

Good stuff!
Your description of Iggy really reminds me of Dillon Brooks (not Stauskas).


Crazy to remember but Myck Kabongo was a near top 10 recruit in 2011.
Scout: 10; 2 (PG)
Rivals: 26; 5 (PG)
ESPN: 10; 2 (PG)

[Hair Canada]

I agree. The Lityuanian+Michigan connection can be a bit deceiving. Iggy is bigger than Dillon and arguably more crafty, but they share a passion for the game and a scorer's mentality.

And yes, Myck was projected to be a much more successful player (I think I saw him on the roster for the Raptors 905). I'm sure though that in a couple of years we'll talk in the same way about some of the players in the list above. The nature of the game.