Drastic Decline in our 3 Pt Shooting - Any Explanation?

lobosloboslobos · Post #1 » by **lobosloboslobos** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 4:41 pm

last year/this year - our sharpshooters from deep

OG: .371/.300 (-.071)
CJ: .379/.271 (-.108)
Serge: .360/.279 (-.081)
Kyle: .399/.333 (-.066)
FVV: .414./.315 (-.099)
JV : .405/.286 (-.119)

Danny: .363/.425 (+.062)
Kawhi: .380 (16-17)/ .390 (+.010)
Delon: .366/.425 (+.059)
Pascal: .220/.333 (+.113)

Apart from Delon and Pascal, all our guys from last year have not just gotten a bit worse but truly fallen off the 3pt map. Anyone want to suggest why?

MadDogSHWA · Post #2 » by **MadDogSHWA** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 4:49 pm

My eye tells me it's mostly lack of ball movement & player movement. I wonder if the stats support that assumption.

Johnny Bball · Post #3 » by **Johnny Bball** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 4:49 pm

I think we should be looking at the number of wide open and open looks from 3 instead of 3FG% if we wanted to know more. I just don't know how to do it. I think we are getting more open looks and missing.

You can probably take out JV. If he makes instead of misses one more 3 every ten games he's close to the same.

AreBe · Post #4 » by **AreBe** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 4:50 pm

Injury!

AreBe wrote:
B-Ball Freak wrote:The Raptors have some horrible fans lol
The Raptors have some injured players. Almost assuredly Lowry's back is hurting and FVV's toe is sore and these injuries are catastrophically impacting the three point shot.

They are the clang gang.

The Cowbell is lit, the clang gang is not!
Less clang! We need more cowbell

Post #5 » by **lebron stopper** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 4:50 pm

My guess is not enough driving threats on this team so we live and die by the three-ball these days

ATLTimekeeper · Post #6 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 4:57 pm

I dunno. Shooting is fickle.

For consideration.

Team 3PA/3P% Last year - This year

Wide Open 16.2/38.7 - 17.9/ 37.9
Open 11.1/34.3 - 11.3/32.6
Tight 4.9/31.3 - 4.2/23.7
Very tight .4/36.7 - .2/33.3

When you look at this, it almost looks like we're shooting the same or slightly better than last year on the aggregate. More open shots.

Post #7 » by **FluLikeSymptoms** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:05 pm

37.9 on wide-open 3s given our talent seems tragic. We added two plus 3pt shooters to our rotation and lost one guy who took and bricked open 3s. Pascal is making open 3s this year. Delon is making. We should be WAY better than last season but we’re leaving points and Ws on the board with brutal shotmaking overall. And it’s more than a slump at this point, after tonight we’re 1/3rd into the season.

curryking3 · Post #8 » by **curryking3** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:09 pm

Too much relying on 3s is all imo.

Plus or minus a few percent on 3s wouldn't matter if the team stays aggressive inside and kicks out for threes, so the quality of threes is higher.

One issue I also see is the hesitancy from some players. Lowry and CJ shouldn't be hesitant, it ruins their rhythm a lot I think. Just take the shot and keep good form and don't overthink it.

As for the open 3 misses outside of these reasons I can't explain it. Shooting slump I guess.

What bothers me more than 3s is rebounding though.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #9 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:12 pm

FluLikeSymptoms wrote:37.9 on wide-open 3s given our talent seems tragic. We added two plus 3pt shooters to our rotation and lost one guy who took and bricked open 3s. Pascal is making open 3s this year. Delon is making. We should be WAY better than last season but we’re leaving points and Ws on the board with brutal shotmaking overall. And it’s more than a slump at this point, after tonight we’re 1/3rd into the season.

For teams with high volume it's not a tragic number. Last year Houston shot 39.9. A couple of years ago the Cavs shot 41.7. That's the best I could find on volume higher than what we're putting up.

Post #10 » by **FluLikeSymptoms** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:18 pm

curryking3 wrote:Too much relying on 3s is all imo.

Plus or minus a few percent on 3s wouldn't matter if the team stays aggressive inside and kicks out for threes, so the quality of threes is higher.

One issue I also see is the hesitancy from some players. Lowry and CJ shouldn't be hesitant, it ruins their rhythm a lot I think. Just take the shot and keep good form and don't overthink it.

As for the open 3 misses outside of these reasons I can't explain it. Shooting slump I guess.

What bothers me more than 3s is rebounding though.

We signed up for bad rebounding though. That was the thing that we give up because you can’t have it all. The old Spurs, Heat, Pistons etc. all sucked on the glass, it happens but you can still win. But we were supposed to have shooting everywhere, with Pascal making all 10 of our guys in the rotation are capable, Norman too— we can’t be bad at something we’re supposed to be great at in addition to sucking at the one thing we were always going to suck at.

cruwinas · Post #11 » by **cruwinas** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:26 pm

JV is unplayable. If Raptors could trade him and get some cow manure in exchange that would improve 3 point shooting by a big margin. Sadly, JV is not unplayable but untradeable too.

ATLTimekeeper · Post #12 » by **ATLTimekeeper** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:29 pm

Another slight difference is we're taking more pull-up 3s but shooting a worse % (34/31.) By comparison Golden State takes the same # but shoots 37%.

This is where Kawhi (40% in last 10) has started to get going, but Kyle and Fred are dying (23.8 and 15.4 in last 10). Last year Kyle and Fred were both near 40% on pull up 3s. Might be conditioning, scouting, injury. Who knows?

Post #13 » by **FluLikeSymptoms** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:32 pm

cruwinas wrote:JV is unplayable. If Raptors could trade him and get some cow manure in exchange that would improve 3 point shooting by a big margin. Sadly, JV is not unplayable but untradeable too.

You are unreadable, and I don’t mean inscrutable.

spoiled2dacore · Post #14 » by **spoiled2dacore** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:33 pm

It's a long season, better happening now then later. Raptors in a little lull right now, think they need to keep on shooting the 3's to get out of it. Soon enough they'll be making their shots. We will need it especially with our next 5 games. Raptors historically are a better 3 point shooting team, I'm not too worried with this current drought.

VanWest82 · Post #15 » by **VanWest82** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:36 pm

ATLTimekeeper wrote:I dunno. Shooting is fickle.

For consideration.

Team 3PA/3P% Last year - This year

Wide Open 16.2/38.7 - 17.9/ 37.9
Open 11.1/34.3 - 11.3/32.6
Tight 4.9/31.3 - 4.2/23.7
Very tight .4/36.7 - .2/33.3

When you look at this, it almost looks like we're shooting the same or slightly better than last year on the aggregate. More open shots.

This jives with what I'm watching. We're getting just as many good looks as ever, and missing them. It's routinely our best shooters (Lowry, FVV, CJ, Ibaka, etc.) who are missing too. This can't last.

The bench is another story though. Even if Fred and CJ start shooting better they still have issues.

Northface82 · Post #16 » by **Northface82** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:48 pm

cruwinas wrote:JV is unplayable. If Raptors could trade him and get some cow manure in exchange that would improve 3 point shooting by a big margin. Sadly, JV is not unplayable but untradeable too.

Because JV is responsible for this team bricking wide-open shots, especially while barely playing ~25mpg. Its definitely not Lowry, Miles, FVV's fault by any means.

Not to mention trading away JV = further tanks our rebounding. You really have no idea what you are talking about.

Post #17 » by **lebron stopper** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:52 pm

Northface82 wrote:
cruwinas wrote:JV is unplayable. If Raptors could trade him and get some cow manure in exchange that would improve 3 point shooting by a big margin. Sadly, JV is not unplayable but untradeable too.

Because JV is responsible for this team bricking wide-open shots, especially while barely playing ~25mpg. Its definitely not Lowry, Miles, FVV's fault by any means.

Not to mention trading away JV = further tanks our rebounding. You really have no idea what you are talking about.

He's joking, that guy usually supports JV

vaff87 · Post #18 » by **vaff87** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:53 pm

It’s a slump. The one guy that has been hot is Kawhi. Like a week ago he had the lowest 3P% of his career, now he has the second highest. That’s how quickly these things can change this early in the season.

Northface82 · Post #19 » by **Northface82** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:55 pm

lebron stopper wrote:
Northface82 wrote:
cruwinas wrote:JV is unplayable. If Raptors could trade him and get some cow manure in exchange that would improve 3 point shooting by a big margin. Sadly, JV is not unplayable but untradeable too.

Because JV is responsible for this team bricking wide-open shots, especially while barely playing ~25mpg. Its definitely not Lowry, Miles, FVV's fault by any means.

Not to mention trading away JV = further tanks our rebounding. You really have no idea what you are talking about.

He's joking, that guy usually supports JV

welp, he got me good. :evil:

Post #20 » by **lebron stopper** » Sun Dec 9, 2018 5:56 pm

vaff87 wrote:It’s a slump. The one guy that has been hot is Kawhi. Like a week ago he had the lowest 3P% of his career, now he has the second highest. That’s how quickly these things can change this early in the season.

I'm just waiting for playoff Kawhi, tbh.