Why WS, ORTG, DRTG on basketball reference are useless advanced stats
Posted: Sat Mar 16, 2019 9:52 pm
There was a poster asking about WS and I had a recent discussion with someone about individual ORTG and DRTG on basketball reference. The statistical information provided on basketball reference is invaluable and many of the advanced stats they list are very useful for analysis. But their calculations for ORTG and DRTG and any stats derived from them (including WS) are widely known as being essentially useless stats. That is because they depend on flawed assumptions and very complex estimations to convert box score statistics into a number that tries to approximate individual contributions to team ORTG and team DRTG.
In contrast, the individual ORTG and DRTG on stats.nba.com use tracking data to calculate the actual points for or against when a player is on the floor, which is a much more useful piece of data.
Here is how BREF explains their calculations and they also acknowledge some of the flaws in those calculations.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
Here are some more detailed breakdowns of the flaws in their DRTG formula if you are interested in the math. ORTG has similar flaws.
https://www.slcdunk.com/2013/1/31/3939352/the-offbeat-a-quick-note-on-individual-defensive-ratings
Here is a great discussion we had here a few years ago.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1545097
In contrast, the individual ORTG and DRTG on stats.nba.com use tracking data to calculate the actual points for or against when a player is on the floor, which is a much more useful piece of data.
Here is how BREF explains their calculations and they also acknowledge some of the flaws in those calculations.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html
Here are some more detailed breakdowns of the flaws in their DRTG formula if you are interested in the math. ORTG has similar flaws.
https://www.slcdunk.com/2013/1/31/3939352/the-offbeat-a-quick-note-on-individual-defensive-ratings
Here is a great discussion we had here a few years ago.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1545097