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RaptorPride wrote:LJKO wrote:My only hope is Masai find us a successor to Lowry, so that someone can carry his legacy in the point gaurd position. I would of said Jamal Murray but he's locked up for now T_T
We got one already
J-Roc wrote:Guys, he's not coming back. We can't afford to overpay him while trying to keep cap space for a rebuild. He's not going to want to waste the 20/21 season not competing with us for a one year deal. None of those options make sense. Most likely he leaves. It's up to Masai and Kyle to massage the situation to make sure he leaves in a way where fans and the player are comfortable. Like the last home game of this season is a big standing ovation because everyone knows it's probably his last. This is how the Jays did it with Jose Bautista.
dhackett1565 wrote:To me, there are two avenues. The obvious avenue is tearing it down now, taking in bad contracts (that don't extend into 2021 cap space) for picks, and losing as much as possible the next two years while holding onto Siakam, OG and some other young depth. If that's the direction they wanted to go, they've already hurt themselves by waiting. So I suspect they intend to do the alternative.
That being to stay afloat, stay in the playoffs, and test Siakam's ability to be the 1A offensive option for a couple seasons. Keep the team's name in the mix every spring, stay competitive, make it appear they are one piece away - so when it comes time to attract that one piece, their sales pitch is that much stronger. And if they are going to do that for this year, they should also do it for the 2020-21 season. A half measure with a rebuild only makes sense if the competitive season comes second, and that's likely out the door at this point.
So if they are going to compete, what's the single most important thing they can do? Keep Lowry. Next summer he'll be at most a year removed from making the all-star team, and will likely get a decent payday from someone, which means if the Raptors want to keep him here without making a long term commitment at significant salary, they'll have to pay through the nose. And so be it. 41M (his max), one year, where do I sign. They can do that as an extension now (or anytime up to June 30) or wait for FA next summer.
That would leave them with 17M in cap room if they cared to use it (assuming a 25% max for Pascal), or 40M in room below the tax if instead they wanted to re-sign guys - easily room for a similar one year overpay for one of the C's (I'd think Gasol, Ibaka might have more of a long term market), and enough room to think about re-signing FVV depending on the value and term.
As for competing - if this year goes well, they could enter 2020-21 as favourites for home court advantage again, which is a pretty solid competitive spot to be in. And if that expensive deal comes (as you'd hope for) along with a cheaper longer term deal to follow, and the Raptors can leverage that 2021 cap room into another star, then Lowry could transition into that lower usage, lower minutes, championship veteran piece (while still likely being extremely effective in that role) and stay on a competitive team for the rest of his career.
Sherlock wrote:dhackett1565 wrote:To me, there are two avenues. The obvious avenue is tearing it down now, taking in bad contracts (that don't extend into 2021 cap space) for picks, and losing as much as possible the next two years while holding onto Siakam, OG and some other young depth. If that's the direction they wanted to go, they've already hurt themselves by waiting. So I suspect they intend to do the alternative.
That being to stay afloat, stay in the playoffs, and test Siakam's ability to be the 1A offensive option for a couple seasons. Keep the team's name in the mix every spring, stay competitive, make it appear they are one piece away - so when it comes time to attract that one piece, their sales pitch is that much stronger. And if they are going to do that for this year, they should also do it for the 2020-21 season. A half measure with a rebuild only makes sense if the competitive season comes second, and that's likely out the door at this point.
So if they are going to compete, what's the single most important thing they can do? Keep Lowry. Next summer he'll be at most a year removed from making the all-star team, and will likely get a decent payday from someone, which means if the Raptors want to keep him here without making a long term commitment at significant salary, they'll have to pay through the nose. And so be it. 41M (his max), one year, where do I sign. They can do that as an extension now (or anytime up to June 30) or wait for FA next summer.
That would leave them with 17M in cap room if they cared to use it (assuming a 25% max for Pascal), or 40M in room below the tax if instead they wanted to re-sign guys - easily room for a similar one year overpay for one of the C's (I'd think Gasol, Ibaka might have more of a long term market), and enough room to think about re-signing FVV depending on the value and term.
As for competing - if this year goes well, they could enter 2020-21 as favourites for home court advantage again, which is a pretty solid competitive spot to be in. And if that expensive deal comes (as you'd hope for) along with a cheaper longer term deal to follow, and the Raptors can leverage that 2021 cap room into another star, then Lowry could transition into that lower usage, lower minutes, championship veteran piece (while still likely being extremely effective in that role) and stay on a competitive team for the rest of his career.
This would be my ideal outcome. A large 1-year deal for Lowry followed by a longer-term deal for him at a much lower annual rate (say MLE level) to allow him to eventually reduce his role and become a sage backup/mentor to whomever our long term PG of the future ends up being. The net result being that we pay him something like $60MM over 3 years or even $70MM over 4 years, but it comes in the form of a $40MM deal next year, and then $10MM/year for the remaining years of his career.
I like the idea of staying competitive and maintaining flexibility so we are (at least viewed as being) "one piece away". The experience of the Clippers and Nets vs. say the Knicks shows us that being competitive has meaningful value in being able to attract FAs.
XxIronChainzxX wrote:J-Roc wrote:Guys, he's not coming back. We can't afford to overpay him while trying to keep cap space for a rebuild. He's not going to want to waste the 20/21 season not competing with us for a one year deal. None of those options make sense. Most likely he leaves. It's up to Masai and Kyle to massage the situation to make sure he leaves in a way where fans and the player are comfortable. Like the last home game of this season is a big standing ovation because everyone knows it's probably his last. This is how the Jays did it with Jose Bautista.
It's hard to imagine Lowry having enough left in the tank to be a bench guy for a contender for the MLE and not wanting to stay here and entire a legend for more than that. It comes down to money, and if he's worth the MLE+ to be a bench guard then he's got enough in the tank to be a starter here.
I don't follow baseball so I can't comment on your analogy but I doubt there's a market for him that wouldn't be affordable for us.
XxIronChainzxX wrote:RaptorPride wrote:LJKO wrote:My only hope is Masai find us a successor to Lowry, so that someone can carry his legacy in the point gaurd position. I would of said Jamal Murray but he's locked up for now T_T
We got one already
FVV is not his successor.
vulture wrote:I really don’t see the point of keeping Lowry since we’ll be in rebuild mode soon. I would look to trade him to a contender for the best possible assets. A team like Miami can use his services at this point.
Courtside wrote:Sherlock wrote:dhackett1565 wrote:To me, there are two avenues. The obvious avenue is tearing it down now, taking in bad contracts (that don't extend into 2021 cap space) for picks, and losing as much as possible the next two years while holding onto Siakam, OG and some other young depth. If that's the direction they wanted to go, they've already hurt themselves by waiting. So I suspect they intend to do the alternative.
That being to stay afloat, stay in the playoffs, and test Siakam's ability to be the 1A offensive option for a couple seasons. Keep the team's name in the mix every spring, stay competitive, make it appear they are one piece away - so when it comes time to attract that one piece, their sales pitch is that much stronger. And if they are going to do that for this year, they should also do it for the 2020-21 season. A half measure with a rebuild only makes sense if the competitive season comes second, and that's likely out the door at this point.
So if they are going to compete, what's the single most important thing they can do? Keep Lowry. Next summer he'll be at most a year removed from making the all-star team, and will likely get a decent payday from someone, which means if the Raptors want to keep him here without making a long term commitment at significant salary, they'll have to pay through the nose. And so be it. 41M (his max), one year, where do I sign. They can do that as an extension now (or anytime up to June 30) or wait for FA next summer.
That would leave them with 17M in cap room if they cared to use it (assuming a 25% max for Pascal), or 40M in room below the tax if instead they wanted to re-sign guys - easily room for a similar one year overpay for one of the C's (I'd think Gasol, Ibaka might have more of a long term market), and enough room to think about re-signing FVV depending on the value and term.
As for competing - if this year goes well, they could enter 2020-21 as favourites for home court advantage again, which is a pretty solid competitive spot to be in. And if that expensive deal comes (as you'd hope for) along with a cheaper longer term deal to follow, and the Raptors can leverage that 2021 cap room into another star, then Lowry could transition into that lower usage, lower minutes, championship veteran piece (while still likely being extremely effective in that role) and stay on a competitive team for the rest of his career.
This would be my ideal outcome. A large 1-year deal for Lowry followed by a longer-term deal for him at a much lower annual rate (say MLE level) to allow him to eventually reduce his role and become a sage backup/mentor to whomever our long term PG of the future ends up being. The net result being that we pay him something like $60MM over 3 years or even $70MM over 4 years, but it comes in the form of a $40MM deal next year, and then $10MM/year for the remaining years of his career.
I like the idea of staying competitive and maintaining flexibility so we are (at least viewed as being) "one piece away". The experience of the Clippers and Nets vs. say the Knicks shows us that being competitive has meaningful value in being able to attract FAs.
I generally agree with this plan, except for the big one year lump deal. I don't think Kyle expects it, nor is he under the delusion he's worth it. Don't forget that whatever big one year deal he is on will also determine his cap hold the following summer, so giving him a 1/40 "thank you" contract hurts in more than one way.
He's been the highest paid Raptor ever and at $33 mil + bonuses, has been paid as a top 10 player, so he's already been given his due as a premier player and in helping us win a title, earned every penny. Getting $33 mil this year will be an overpay, so anything beyond this year needs to start dipping, even if it's just a one year filler deal to maintain space for 2021.
Personally, I'd sell him on getting to the $200 mil threshold as a player, and offer him a 3 year plan to get there. He'll be at about $150 mil after this season, so a one year deal at $23 and then two more at $14/13 seems about right to me, or perhaps even a little on the lower side now that I think about it, but if it's done so that he finishes his career here then it has to be at a value that doesn't hurt us in doing the other moves as needed. If it's too high then the need to trade him increases. It's better to pay him like Nowitski than like Gasol, who ended up needing to be moved for $ reasons. Put in substantial bonuses for him if we're winning, of course, otherwise make it so it's friendly to both sides.
3/50 gets him to $200 million and 36 years old, where he can gracefully exit or transition to coaching if he so chooses.
Johnny Bball wrote:I could see extending him. 3/45 maybe 2/35. but makes much more sense to see what happens in the summer and re-sign him with bird rights after using the cap space. If there's anywhere to use it.
hankscorpioLA wrote:A couple of advanced stats from last year, courtesy of basketball reference
PER: 16.5 - 77th
WS/48: .144 - 51st
BPM: 3.1 - 35th
VORP: 2.8 - 37th
These are all significantly lower than they were the year before, but some of that is due to changes in personnel.
IMHO 3 years and $45 million would be about right for Lowry's current and projected level of production.
Morse Code wrote:Johnny Bball wrote:I could see extending him. 3/45 maybe 2/35. but makes much more sense to see what happens in the summer and re-sign him with bird rights after using the cap space. If there's anywhere to use it.
My thoughts as well. I see it was a waiting game. Maybe he's patient enough to see what we do, and let us use his bird rights after everything, or maybe this is lip service and he'll take the deal he wants unless we pay him handsomely right away. Time will tell.
