tecumseh18 wrote:gaoj2 wrote:With derozan, won 59, replace derozan with Kawhi, won 58, but load management, won the champ. Without Kawhi, but replace JV with Marc Gasol, and with the champ experience.
This is how I'm trying to look at it. Our 59-win season was perhaps the only (regular) season where DeMar wasn't a net minus. That led to him being second-team all-NBA in 2018. So his absence doesn't "help" the team. But ... Pascal will be way better. His usage should take him to 25 ppg on great efficiency.
In the playoffs, the Raptor's not-so-secret weapon was having 48 minutes of defensive Cs who can hit the outside shot (and therefore pull the opposing C away from the basket), and PG's who can really play. That made things easier for Kawhi. Fred actually has a bad regular season last year - probably because of back pain. So without Pascal to stabilize things, our bench gave up plenty of leads. I think Fred will be better and RHJ (and TDII) will help in that regard. If Fred and Serge can get some pnr action going, then that will be huge. Can Matt Thomas stay on the court enough to fill the CJ Miles role?
I'm saying 54 wins. It's not like even the Sixers or Bucks are clearly better than they were last season. Boston without Horford or that Kiwi guy who always kills us is clearly inferior. And the East has a lot of patsies. Can we possibly lose more than a game or so against the Cavs, Hornets, Wizards or Knicks? Bulls and Atlanta will be better, but not enough to put them over the hump.
Our 59-win team was deeper than now. DeRozan then and now remains a better scorer than Siakam. I hope I'm wrong but even with more touches I don't see Siakam averaging the 23 PPG DeRozan did that year (he still needs to work on his offense and he will be drawing the best defenders each night).
I also think the East is now a better conference. Bucks and 76ers are going to better than us, and we're about even with the Celtics, Nets, and Heat.
Other considerations are guys like Lowry and Gasol probably wont be 100% to start the season (our schedule is pretty tough). Plus we don't know what type of production we're going to get from our new starting SG/SFs.
Finally, who knows what Masai will do with the expiring contracts. He may decide to trade them for short term pain and long term gain (e.g. draft picks).
Hence, my 45-win prediction (good enough for 5th or 6th in the East).
