538 Elo forecast gives Raptors highest chance of winning finals (31%)

SFour · Post #1 » by **SFour** » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:23 pm

I'm a big follower of 538's Elo forecast because they predicted that the Raptors were going to beat the Sixers, Bucks, and Warriors last season in the playoffs....they gave Raptors a 51% chance to make the finals going into the Bucks series while everyone else was heavily favouring the Buck (most fans, media, and bookies were giving the Bucks ~70% chance of winning the ECF series)

Now with the 2020 regular season being over, after the Nuggets win the Raptors odds have improved to 42% chance of making it to the finals, and 31% chance of winning the finals...that's higher than any other team.

I'm not saying this means the Raptors are going to the finals or are going to win the championship...but it's nice to have some more positivity and optimism on here.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-nba-predictions/

Tor_Raps · Post #2 » by **Tor_Raps** » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:32 pm

That seems generous tbh. Putting any weight into the raptors last 3 games is pretty meaningless in the playoffs.

I have the celtics series as a toss up and us being underdogs against the bucks. Now things can change since the bucks haven't looked that good in the bubble and Miami does seem like they can beat them.

everdiso · Post #3 » by **everdiso** » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:50 pm

Tor_Raps wrote:
I have the celtics series as a toss up and us being underdogs against the bucks.

Sounds like a rigorous model.

True North · Post #4 » by **True North** » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:50 pm

Last season’s CARMELO projections liked the Raptors a lot more than this seasons RAPTOR model does

LBJKB24MJ23 · Post #5 » by **LBJKB24MJ23** » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:54 pm

the win against Denver skews the data no?

Parataxis · Post #6 » by **Parataxis** » Fri Aug 14, 2020 11:58 pm

True North wrote:Last season’s CARMELO projections liked the Raptors a lot more than this seasons RAPTOR model does

Yup, it was bizarre. CARMELO accurately predicted the finals, so they went and changed it to something that likes the Raptors less (and then named it after them)

SFour · Post #7 » by **SFour** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:01 am

True North wrote:Last season’s CARMELO projections liked the Raptors a lot more than this seasons RAPTOR model does

Spoiler:

The RAPTOR model gave the Sixers a 15% chance of winning the finals at one point of the season...I feel like it overrates teams like the Sixers just because they look good on paper....it ignores the chemistry aspect of a team which the Raptors shine at.

Semanticist · Post #8 » by **Semanticist** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:12 am

I feel like it makes intuitive sense that we're only 6th in RAPTOR but first in ELO. We are, as a TEAM, truly greater than the sum of our parts!

Tor_Raps · Post #9 » by **Tor_Raps** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:22 am

everdiso wrote:
Tor_Raps wrote:
I have the celtics series as a toss up and us being underdogs against the bucks.

Sounds like a rigorous model.

Watching and understanding the game can be a hell of a thing

RyderMike · Post #10 » by **RyderMike** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 12:52 am

I think this over-relies on recent data, which given how several teams (cough Bucks cough) didn't really try, it's overemphasizing the Bucks 3-5 record. If Phoenix had snuck in with the 8th seed with their 8-0 record, they'd probably have an exaggerated percentage as well

DelAbbot · Post #11 » by **DelAbbot** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:12 am

Lol at the Lakers 7% of winning the finals (half that of Clippers).

Raps in 4 · Post #12 » by **Raps in 4** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:35 am

I'd give us a slightly higher chance, but not bad.

dillio · Post #13 » by **dillio** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 1:35 am

I’d personally lean closer to the player based model that gives us a 3% shot at winning the finals. The vegas implied odds has us at around 8% I think - higher than RAPTOR but nowhere close to 31%. If you have a lot of faith in Elo, you would be getting amazing odds by betting on the raptors.

Bankai · Post #14 » by **Bankai** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:18 am

They are so sure that the Raptors will get to the Finals, 31% is no joke. I mean look at the Clippers. They have the best chance to come out of the West, but their % is so low that they still think the West is a toss up. They are way more confident that the Raptors will get to the Finals than any other team besides maybe the Bucks. They are basically saying winning the East is a 2 Team Race.

everdiso · Post #15 » by **everdiso** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:27 am

What's fascinating about this is that elo forecasts don't even account for injuries.

Randle McMurphy · Post #16 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:54 am

True North wrote:Last season’s CARMELO projections liked the Raptors a lot more than this seasons RAPTOR model does

Having Kawhi will do that.

everdiso · Post #17 » by **everdiso** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 2:59 am

Everyone saying that this is overly influenced by bubble games is kinda wrong, aside from the bucks.

Pre-bubble elo chances:

MIL 35%
LAL 18%
TOR 17%
LAC 9%
BOS 6%

So elo really liked the raps pre-bubble too.

The question then is - are the bubble performances by MIL and LAL completely meaningless, or do they show some real weaknesses? Im not sure there's an easy answer there.

tecumseh18 · Post #18 » by **tecumseh18** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:10 am

All very nice, but the Clippers are winning it all. Any algorithm that doesn't reflect that all-but-objective fact is flawed.

Parataxis · Post #19 » by **Parataxis** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:17 am

everdiso wrote:Everyone saying that this is overly influenced by bubble games is kinda wrong, aside from the bucks.

Pre-bubble elo chances:

MIL 35%
LAL 18%
TOR 17%
LAC 9%
BOS 6%

So elo really liked the raps pre-bubble too.

The question then is - are the bubble performances by MIL and LAL completely meaningless, or do they show some real weaknesses? Im not sure there's an easy answer there.

There is an easy answer there, but we won't see it for another month.

mtcan · Post #20 » by **mtcan** » Sat Aug 15, 2020 3:17 am

everdiso wrote:Everyone saying that this is overly influenced by bubble games is kinda wrong, aside from the bucks.

Pre-bubble elo chances:

MIL 35%
LAL 18%
TOR 17%
LAC 9%
BOS 6%

So elo really liked the raps pre-bubble too.

The question then is - are the bubble performances by MIL and LAL completely meaningless, or do they show some real weaknesses? Im not sure there's an easy answer there.

The Lakers got worse coming into the bubble...that much is for sure. Losing Rondo to injury for another few weeks and Avery Bradley for the entire bubble makes them a different team...that said...they still have AD and Lebron so no matter how much worse the roster got on a whole...these 2 guys are what should really matter. That said...Nick Nurse has shown how to play against the Lakers...and they CAN be game planned against. And a first round matchup against Portland will push the Lakers. The Lakers, without Bradley won't have an answer for keeping Dame in check. And what is absolutely clear right now: The Blazers as currently constructed are NOT a true #8 seed. If Nurkic, Collins and Melo were on the roster since the start of the season...it should be OKC or Dallas at #8 and the Blazers should be 3rd or 4th seed. So Portland will give the Lakers a really good series...should they beat Memphis for #8.

I have no explanation on why the Bucks' chances are suddenly a bit lower. They ARE still the same team they were pre-bubble, for better or worse.