"Superstar" as shot-clock release valve

[OakleyDokely]

Game 1 - BOS win big
BOS 43% 3PT
TOR 25% 3PT

Game 2 - BOS win small
BOS 39% 3PT
TOR 27% 3PT

Game 3 - TOR win small
BOS 31% 3PT
TOR 32% 3PT

[Wannabe MEP]

Four games against Celtics in the bubble:

• OffRtg: 94.3 -- blowout L
• OffRtg: 90.4 -- blowout L
• OffRtg: 101.0 -- close L
• OffRtg: 108.3 -- close W

^ definitely trending the right direction, so that's hopeful. Is that 108.3 an outlier, or the new normal? I think they have to average above 105 the rest of the way to win the series. They've hit that mark once in the last four games against the Celtics, but if they figured some things out that are sustainable, they're in this...

[Psubs]

Four games against Celtics in the bubble:

• OffRtg: 94.3 -- blowout L
• OffRtg: 90.4 -- blowout L
• OffRtg: 101.0 -- close L
• OffRtg: 108.3 -- close W

^ definitely trending the right direction, so that's hopeful. Is that 108.3 an outlier, or the new normal? I think they have to average above 105 the rest of the way to win the series. They've hit that mark once in the last four games against the Celtics, but if they figured some things out that are sustainable, they're in this...

It's pretty much Siakam and overall team hitting open 3's. Geez Wannamaker hit 2 corner treys.

[Wannabe MEP]

Geez Wannamaker hit 2 corner treys.

What's your point about Wanamaker?

[Wannabe MEP]

Offensive efficiency comparison by game:



Raptors average: 98.7
Celtics average: 108.5

Down just a game, but the matchup math is not on the Raptors' side. They're just not generating enough offense. Game four's brilliant defense/Celtics' bad offense was not sustainable -- they have to find creative ways to spring the offense. Maybe Nurse has some magic schemes on offense, but I think they have to do personnel changes. Go small and/or play better shooters.

[Pooh_Jeter]

For those with an Athletic sub, this article basically points to the issues that Los Soles has been talking about. I guess the author of this article doesn't really watch games and should quit being a basketball fan too.

https://theathletic.com/2049900/2020/09/08/the-analytical-lookaround-the-importance-of-having-an-alpha/



Purple is the playoffs, black is the regular season.

[Wannabe MEP]

For those with an Athletic sub, this article basically points to the issues that Los Soles has been talking about. I guess the author of this article doesn't really watch games and should quit being a basketball fan too.

https://theathletic.com/2049900/2020/09/08/the-analytical-lookaround-the-importance-of-having-an-alpha/



Purple is the playoffs, black is the regular season.

What are the colors for the non-Raptors?

[Pooh_Jeter]

For those with an Athletic sub, this article basically points to the issues that Los Soles has been talking about. I guess the author of this article doesn't really watch games and should quit being a basketball fan too.

https://theathletic.com/2049900/2020/09/08/the-analytical-lookaround-the-importance-of-having-an-alpha/



Purple is the playoffs, black is the regular season.

What are the colors for the non-Raptors?

Red is playoffs and grey is the regular season.

[Wannabe MEP]

There's a looming question about what to do with this roster once this playoff run is over. But until then, the question is how to maximize what's already here.

The defense has been championship-level good. The offense hasn't. I don't think they can keep doing what they've been doing and just hope to make more shots. I think they've got to change the dynamic more than that.

1. Nurse pulled out some defensive surprises in game 4 that really threw off Boston. I think he's better at that on defense than on offense, but maybe he's got some for offense. I have no idea what that could be, but it's gotta be now.
2. He's gotta go smaller/quicker, at least for stretches. Play Siakam, Boucher, or RHJ at the five. There's a plethora of quality guards to fill out the lineup. Defense might suffer some, but the current dynamic is a losing strategy. It just might spring the offense enough. Like Warriors starting Iguodala and Spurs starting Diaw in the Finals.
3. Play better shooters bigger minutes. Some combo of Davis, Powell, and Thomas needs big minutes. Maybe Boucher as well. Obviously, this pairs well with #2, but could also work with, say Ibaka at the five. But you simply have to find a way to play your best shooters when the offense is stagnant. Gasol is under 15% from three in the playoffs: he shouldn't see the court again.

[junot111]

There's a looming question about what to do with this roster once this playoff run is over. But until then, the question is how to maximize what's already here.

The defense has been championship-level good. The offense hasn't. I don't think they can keep doing what they've been doing and just hope to make more shots. I think they've got to change the dynamic more than that.

1. Nurse pulled out some defensive surprises in game 4 that really threw off Boston. I think he's better at that on defense than on offense, but maybe he's got some for offense. I have no idea what that could be, but it's gotta be now.
2. He's gotta go smaller/quicker, at least for stretches. Play Siakam, Boucher, or RHJ at the five. There's a plethora of quality guards to fill out the lineup. Defense might suffer some, but the current dynamic is a losing strategy. It just might spring the offense enough. Like Warriors starting Iguodala and Spurs starting Diaw in the Finals.
3. Play better shooters bigger minutes. Some combo of Davis, Powell, and Thomas needs big minutes. Maybe Boucher as well. Obviously, this pairs well with #2, but could also work with, say Ibaka at the five. But you simply have to find a way to play your best shooters when the offense is stagnant. Gasol is under 15% from three in the playoffs: he shouldn't see the court again.

The most obvious change is go small and play Siakam at the 5, but I can see why Nurse is hesitant on doing it. Siakam is a below-average rebounder as a big man so If Siakam moves to the 5, OG will play the 4, we don't have a big player to play the 3. RHJ negates the floor spacing, SJ/PW are not good enough, and Norm and Matt Thomas are too small. Our backcourt is already tiny and the lack of size clearly shows against the Celtics.

[Wannabe MEP]

The most obvious change is go small and play Siakam at the 5, but I can see why Nurse is hesitant on doing it.

Nice little run when they finally went to this at the end of the half. Also, Thomas is +8 in 6 minutes. You gotta give it a shot, even if the defense/rebounding suffers. Drop the defense from an A to an A- so you can stop failing on offense.

[junot111]

The most obvious change is go small and play Siakam at the 5, but I can see why Nurse is hesitant on doing it.

Nice little run when they finally went to this at the end of the half. Also, Thomas is +8 in 6 minutes. You gotta give it a shot, even if the defense/rebounding suffers. Drop the defense from an A to an A- so you can stop failing on offense.

Agree, we have nothing to lose now. Matt Thomas opens up the offense so much. Though I think it's more of a drop to B+ and when you're going against a well-coached team, it's only a matter of time until they attack your weakness.

[Wannabe MEP]

With Siakam at the five, Raptors were +7 in 21 minutes. Enough to win the game.

[Wannabe MEP]

The most obvious change is go small and play Siakam at the 5, but I can see why Nurse is hesitant on doing it.

Nice little run when they finally went to this at the end of the half. Also, Thomas is +8 in 6 minutes. You gotta give it a shot, even if the defense/rebounding suffers. Drop the defense from an A to an A- so you can stop failing on offense.

Agree, we have nothing to lose now. Matt Thomas opens up the offense so much. Though I think it's more of a drop to B+ and when you're going against a well-coached team, it's only a matter of time until they attack your weakness.

Thomas ended up with a +20.2 NetRtg for the series, and the Raptors overall were +11.5 when neither Ibaka nor Gasol were playing. But with Gasol on the court, 94.7 OffRtg (terrible). With Ibaka on the court, 98.8 OffRtg (slightly less terrible).

[Wannabe MEP]

https://theathletic.com/2049900/2020/09/08/the-analytical-lookaround-the-importance-of-having-an-alpha/

Ok, so...obviously you want an "alpha": everybody wants a Kawhi or Durant. They're not easy to come by.

What about hunting for a "beta"? E.g., cheaper, non-superstar who can create his own shot? Not as complete a player as Kawhi, but can spark the offense, perhaps even coming off the bench. I'm thinking something like a Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Jason Terry.

Who fits that profile, that might be attainable?

[Pooh_Jeter]

https://theathletic.com/2049900/2020/09/08/the-analytical-lookaround-the-importance-of-having-an-alpha/

Ok, so...obviously you want an "alpha": everybody wants a Kawhi or Durant. They're not easy to come by.

What about hunting for a "beta"? E.g., cheaper, non-superstar who can create his own shot? Not as complete a player as Kawhi, but can spark the offense, perhaps even coming off the bench. I'm thinking something like a Jamal Crawford, Lou Williams, Jason Terry.

Who fits that profile, that might be attainable?

The Raptors bench would definitely benefit from having a guy like that, but those types of players are so hot and cold. We have seen with Lou Williams in particular his post season efforts have been less than inspiring. These types of lower profile guys who can create their own shot are generally pretty one dimensional.

Off the top of my head I would imagine LeVert fits the bill of what the Raptors need, but I highly doubt there is a trade fit between Toronto and Brooklyn.

[Purple Forever]

Lowry is that guy but can't play 45 min and then expect that - ideally he comes off the bench and has legs left to be that guy in the 4th. Fred and OG are better spotting up than creating. Siakim can't create out of the double yet, he waits too long to get rid of the ball and that causes the high turnover rate. Ideally we get someone younger to grow into that guy at SG - Josh Jackson maybe ?

[Wannabe MEP]

Lowry is that guy

I think of Lowry as a decent but not elite scorer...but elite at just about everything else. I like him in his current role, but he needs a true scorer on the roster with him.

Ideally we get someone younger to grow into that guy at SG - Josh Jackson maybe ?

Interesting idea. This makes hims sound more like an Iguodala than a pure scorer, though. Perhaps that's been changing since then?